Reward comparisons are vital for evaluating differences in agent behaviors induced by a set of reward functions. Most conventional techniques utilize the input reward functions to learn optimized policies, which are then used to compare agent behaviors. However, learning these policies can be computationally expensive and can also raise safety concerns. Direct reward comparison techniques obviate policy learning but suffer from transition sparsity, where only a small subset of transitions are sampled due to data collection challenges and feasibility constraints. Existing state-of-the-art direct reward comparison methods are ill-suited for these sparse conditions since they require high transition coverage, where the majority of transitions from a given coverage distribution are sampled. When this requirement is not satisfied, a distribution mismatch between sampled and expected transitions can occur, leading to significant errors. This paper introduces the Sparsity Resilient Reward Distance (SRRD) pseudometric, designed to eliminate the need for high transition coverage by accommodating diverse sample distributions, which are common under transition sparsity. We provide theoretical justification for SRRD's robustness and conduct experiments to demonstrate its practical efficacy across multiple domains.

M. Tanveer * Department of Mathematics Indian Institute of T echnology Indore mtanveer@iiti.ac.in Abstract --Restricted kernel machines (RKMs) represent a versatile and powerful framework within the kernel machine family, leveraging conjugate feature duality to address a wide range of machine learning tasks, including classification, regression, and feature learning. However, their performance can degrade significantly in the presence of noise and outliers, which compromises robustness and predictive accuracy. In this paper, we propose a novel enhancement to the RKM framework by integrating a class-informed weighted function. This weighting mechanism dynamically adjusts the contribution of individual training points based on their proximity to class centers and class-specific characteristics, thereby mitigating the adverse effects of noisy and outlier data. By incorporating weighted conjugate feature duality and leveraging the Schur complement theorem, we introduce the class-informed restricted kernel machine (CI-RKM), a robust extension of the RKM designed to improve generalization and resilience to data imperfections. Experimental evaluations on benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed CI-RKM consistently outperforms existing baselines, achieving superior classification accuracy and enhanced robustness against noise and outliers. Our proposed method establishes a significant advancement in the development of kernel-based learning models, addressing a core challenge in the field.

A popular approach to neurosymbolic AI is to take the output of the last layer of a neural network, e.g. a softmax activation, and pass it through a sparse computation graph encoding certain logical constraints one wishes to enforce. This induces a probability distribution over a set of random variables, which happen to be conditionally independent of each other in many commonly used neurosymbolic AI models. Such conditionally independent random variables have been deemed harmful as their presence has been observed to co-occur with a phenomenon dubbed deterministic bias, where systems learn to determinis-tically prefer one of the valid solutions from the solution space over the others. We provide evidence contesting this conclusion and show that the phenomenon of deterministic bias is an artifact of improperly applying neurosymbolic AI. Keywords: neurosymbolic AI partial label learning 1 Introduction Neurosymbolic (NeSy) AI is an approach to AI which seeks to combine logic and neural networks [13].

The International Prize in Statistics Foundation has awarded Grace Wahba the 2025 prize for "her groundbreaking work on smoothing splines, which has transformed data analysis and machine learning". Professor Wahba was among the earliest to pioneer the use of nonparametric regression modeling. Recent advances in computing and availability of large data sets have further popularized these models, especially under the guise of machine learning algorithms such as gradient boosting and neural networks. Nevertheless, the use of smoothing splines remains a mainstay of nonparametric regression. In seminal research that began in the early 1970s, Wahba developed theoretical foundations and computational algorithms for fitting smoothing splines to noisy data.

We propose a robust and scalable framework for variational Bayes (VB) that effectively handles outliers and contamination of arbitrary nature in large datasets. Our approach divides the dataset into disjoint subsets, computes the posterior for each subset, and applies VB approximation independently to these posteriors. The resulting variational posteriors with respect to the subsets are then aggregated using the geometric median of probability measures, computed with respect to the Wasserstein distance. This novel aggregation method yields the Variational Median Posterior (VM-Posterior) distribution. We rigorously demonstrate that the VM-Posterior preserves contraction properties akin to those of the true posterior, while accounting for approximation errors or the variational gap inherent in VB methods. We also provide provable robustness guarantee of the VM-Posterior. Furthermore, we establish a variational Bernstein-von Mises theorem for both multivariate Gaussian distributions with general covariance structures and the mean-field variational family. To facilitate practical implementation, we adapt existing algorithms for computing the VM-Posterior and evaluate its performance through extensive numerical experiments. The results highlight its robustness and scalability, making it a reliable tool for Bayesian inference in the presence of complex, contaminated datasets.

Archetypal analysis (AA) was originally proposed in 1994 by Adele Cutler and Leo Breiman as a computational procedure to extract the distinct aspects called archetypes in observations with each observational record approximated as a mixture (i.e., convex combination) of these archetypes. AA thereby provides straightforward, interpretable, and explainable representations for feature extraction and dimensionality reduction, facilitating the understanding of the structure of high-dimensional data with wide applications throughout the sciences. However, AA also faces challenges, particularly as the associated optimization problem is non-convex. This survey provides researchers and data mining practitioners an overview of methodologies and opportunities that AA has to offer surveying the many applications of AA across disparate fields of science, as well as best practices for modeling data using AA and limitations. The survey concludes by explaining important future research directions concerning AA.

Conformal prediction (CP) is an important tool for distribution-free predictive uncertainty quantification. Yet, a major challenge is to balance computational efficiency and prediction accuracy, particularly for multiple predictions. We propose Leave-One-Out Stable Conformal Prediction (LOO-StabCP), a novel method to speed up full conformal using algorithmic stability without sample splitting. By leveraging leave-one-out stability, our method is much faster in handling a large number of prediction requests compared to existing method RO-StabCP based on replace-one stability. We derived stability bounds for several popular machine learning tools: regularized loss minimization (RLM) and stochastic gradient descent (SGD), as well as kernel method, neural networks and bagging. Our method is theoretically justified and demonstrates superior numerical performance on synthetic and real-world data. We applied our method to a screening problem, where its effective exploitation of training data led to improved test power compared to state-of-the-art method based on split conformal.

Accurate short-term traffic demand prediction is critical for the operation of traffic systems. Besides point estimation, the confidence interval of the prediction is also of great importance. Many models for traffic operations, such as shared bike rebalancing and taxi dispatching, take into account the uncertainty of future demand and require confidence intervals as the input. However, existing methods for confidence interval modeling rely on strict assumptions, such as unchanging traffic patterns and correct model specifications, to guarantee enough coverage. Therefore, the confidence intervals provided could be invalid, especially in a changing traffic environment. To fill this gap, we propose an efficient method, CONTINA (Conformal Traffic Intervals with Adaptation) to provide interval predictions that can adapt to external changes. By collecting the errors of interval during deployment, the method can adjust the interval in the next step by widening it if the errors are too large or shortening it otherwise. Furthermore, we theoretically prove that the coverage of the confidence intervals provided by our method converges to the target coverage level. Experiments across four real-world datasets and prediction models demonstrate that the proposed method can provide valid confidence intervals with shorter lengths. Our method can help traffic management personnel develop a more reasonable and robust operation plan in practice. And we release the code, model and dataset in \href{ https://github.com/xiannanhuang/CONTINA/}{ Github}.

We introduce a scalable framework for regressing multivariate distributions onto multivariate distributions, motivated by the application of inferring cell-cell communication from population-scale single-cell data. The observed data consist of pairs of multivariate distributions for ligands from one cell type and corresponding receptors from another. For each ordered pair $e=(l,r)$ of cell types $(l \neq r)$ and each sample $i = 1, \ldots, n$, we observe a pair of distributions $(F_{ei}, G_{ei})$ of gene expressions for ligands and receptors of cell types $l$ and $r$, respectively. The aim is to set up a regression of receptor distributions $G_{ei}$ given ligand distributions $F_{ei}$. A key challenge is that these distributions reside in distinct spaces of differing dimensions. We formulate the regression of multivariate densities on multivariate densities using a generalized Bayes framework with the sliced Wasserstein distance between fitted and observed distributions. Finally, we use inference under such regressions to define a directed graph for cell-cell communications.

Ocean microbes are critical to both ocean ecosystems and the global climate. Flow cytometry, which measures cell optical properties in fluid samples, is routinely used in oceanographic research. Despite decades of accumulated data, identifying key microbial populations (a process known as ``gating'') remains a significant analytical challenge. To address this, we focus on gating multidimensional, high-frequency flow cytometry data collected {\it continuously} on board oceanographic research vessels, capturing time- and space-wise variations in the dynamic ocean. Our paper proposes a novel mixture-of-experts model in which both the gating function and the experts are given by trend filtering. The model leverages two key assumptions: (1) Each snapshot of flow cytometry data is a mixture of multivariate Gaussians and (2) the parameters of these Gaussians vary smoothly over time. Our method uses regularization and a constraint to ensure smoothness and that cluster means match biologically distinct microbe types. We demonstrate, using flow cytometry data from the North Pacific Ocean, that our proposed model accurately matches human-annotated gating and corrects significant errors.