When agents trade in a Duality-based Cost Function prediction market, they collectively implement the learning algorithm Follow-The-Regularized-Leader. We ask whether other learning algorithms could be used to inspire the design of prediction markets. By decomposing and modifying the Duality-based Cost Function Market Maker's (DCFMM) pricing mechanism, we propose a new prediction market, called the Smooth Quadratic Prediction Market, the incentivizes agents to collectively implement general steepest gradient descent. Relative to the DCFMM, the Smooth Quadratic Prediction Market has a better worst-case monetary loss for AD securities while preserving axiom guarantees such as the existence of instantaneous price, information incorporation, expressiveness, no arbitrage, and a form of incentive compatibility. To motivate the application of the Smooth Quadratic Prediction Market, we independently examine agents' trading behavior under two realistic constraints: bounded budgets and buy-only securities. Finally, we provide an introductory analysis of an approach to facilitate adaptive liquidity using the Smooth Quadratic Prediction Market. Our results suggest future designs where the price update rule is separate from the fee structure, yet guarantees are preserved.

Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) is a cluster of interrelated risk factors that significantly increases the risk of cardiovascular diseases and type 2 diabetes. Despite its global prevalence, accurate prediction of MetS remains challenging due to issues such as class imbalance, data scarcity, and methodological inconsistencies in existing studies. In this paper, we address these challenges by systematically evaluating and optimizing machine learning (ML) models for MetS prediction, leveraging advanced data balancing techniques and counterfactual analysis. Multiple ML models, including XGBoost, Random Forest, TabNet, etc., were trained and compared under various data balancing techniques such as random oversampling (ROS), SMOTE, ADASYN, and CTGAN. Additionally, we introduce MetaBoost, a novel hybrid framework that integrates SMOTE, ADASYN, and CTGAN, optimizing synthetic data generation through weighted averaging and iterative weight tuning to enhance the model's performance (achieving up to a 1.87% accuracy improvement over individual balancing techniques). A comprehensive counterfactual analysis is conducted to quantify the feature-level changes required to shift individuals from high-risk to low-risk categories. The results indicate that blood glucose (50.3%) and triglycerides (46.7%) were the most frequently modified features, highlighting their clinical significance in MetS risk reduction. Additionally, probabilistic analysis shows elevated blood glucose (85.5% likelihood) and triglycerides (74.9% posterior probability) as the strongest predictors. This study not only advances the methodological rigor of MetS prediction but also provides actionable insights for clinicians and researchers, highlighting the potential of ML in mitigating the public health burden of metabolic syndrome.

Tree-based models are often robust to uninformative features and can accurately capture non-smooth, complex decision boundaries. Consequently, they often outperform neural network-based models on tabular datasets at a significantly lower computational cost. Nevertheless, the capability of traditional tree-based ensembles to express complex relationships efficiently is limited by using a single feature to make splits. To improve the efficiency and expressiveness of tree-based methods, we propose Random Oblique Fast Interpretable Greedy-Tree Sums (RO-FIGS). RO-FIGS builds on Fast Interpretable Greedy-Tree Sums, and extends it by learning trees with oblique or multivariate splits, where each split consists of a linear combination learnt from random subsets of features. This helps uncover interactions between features and improves performance. The proposed method is suitable for tabular datasets with both numerical and categorical features. We evaluate RO-FIGS on 22 real-world tabular datasets, demonstrating superior performance and much smaller models over other tree- and neural network-based methods. Additionally, we analyse their splits to reveal valuable insights into feature interactions, enriching the information learnt from SHAP summary plots, and thereby demonstrating the enhanced interpretability of RO-FIGS models. The proposed method is well-suited for applications, where balance between accuracy and interpretability is essential.

Bayesian formulations of inverse problems are attractive for their ability to incorporate prior knowledge and update probabilistic models as new data become available. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods sample posterior probability density functions (pdfs) but require accurate prior models and many likelihood evaluations. Dimensionality-reduction methods, such as principal component analysis (PCA), can help define the prior and train surrogate models that efficiently approximate costly forward solvers. However, for problems like full waveform inversion, the complex input/output relations often cannot be captured well by surrogate models trained only on prior samples, leading to biased results. Including samples from high-posterior-probability regions can improve accuracy, but these regions are hard to identify in advance. We propose an iterative method that progressively refines the surrogate model. Starting with low-frequency data, we train an initial surrogate and perform an MCMC inversion. The resulting posterior samples are then used to retrain the surrogate, allowing us to expand the frequency bandwidth in the next inversion step. Repeating this process reduces model errors and improves the surrogate's accuracy over the relevant input domain. Ultimately, we obtain a highly accurate surrogate across the full bandwidth, enabling a final MCMC inversion. Numerical results from 2D synthetic crosshole Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) examples show that our method outperforms ray-based approaches and those relying solely on prior sampling. The overall computational cost is reduced by about two orders of magnitude compared to full finite-difference time-domain modeling.

Human decision-making in cognitive tasks and daily life exhibits considerable variability, shaped by factors such as task difficulty, individual preferences, and personal experiences. Understanding this variability across individuals is essential for uncovering the perceptual and decision-making mechanisms that humans rely on when faced with uncertainty and ambiguity. We present a computational framework BAM (Boundary Alignment & Manipulation framework) that combines perceptual boundary sampling in ANNs and human behavioral experiments to systematically investigate this phenomenon. Our perceptual boundary sampling algorithm generates stimuli along ANN decision boundaries that intrinsically induce significant perceptual variability. The efficacy of these stimuli is empirically validated through large-scale behavioral experiments involving 246 participants across 116,715 trials, culminating in the variMNIST dataset containing 19,943 systematically annotated images. Through personalized model alignment and adversarial generation, we establish a reliable method for simultaneously predicting and manipulating the divergent perceptual decisions of pairs of participants. This work bridges the gap between computational models and human individual difference research, providing new tools for personalized perception analysis.

Solar flares are among the most powerful and dynamic events in the solar system, resulting from the sudden release of magnetic energy stored in the Sun's atmosphere. These energetic bursts of electromagnetic radiation can release up to 10^32 erg of energy, impacting space weather and posing risks to technological infrastructure and therefore require accurate forecasting of solar flare occurrences and intensities. This study evaluates the predictive performance of three machine learning algorithms: Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) for classifying solar flares into 4 categories (B, C, M, X). Using the dataset of 13 SHARP parameters, the effectiveness of the models was evaluated in binary and multiclass classification tasks. The analysis utilized 8 principal components (PC), capturing 95% of data variance, and 100 PCs, capturing 97.5% of variance. Our approach uniquely combines binary and multiclass classification with different levels of dimensionality reduction, an innovative methodology not previously explored in the context of solar flare prediction. Employing a 10-fold stratified cross-validation and grid search for hyperparameter tuning ensured robust model evaluation. Our findings indicate that Random Forest and XGBoost consistently demonstrate strong performance across all metrics, benefiting significantly from increased dimensionality. The insights of this study enhance future research by optimizing dimensionality reduction techniques and informing model selection for astrophysical tasks. By integrating this newly acquired knowledge into future research, more accurate space weather forecasting systems can be developed, along with a deeper understanding of solar physics.

This paper presents a Logits-Constrained (LC) framework for Ancient Chinese Named Entity Recognition (NER), evaluated on the EvaHan 2025 benchmark. Our two-stage model integrates GujiRoBERTa for contextual encoding and a differentiable decoding mechanism to enforce valid BMES label transitions. Experiments demonstrate that LC improves performance over traditional CRF and BiLSTM-based approaches, especially in high-label or large-data settings. We also propose a model selection criterion balancing label complexity and dataset size, providing practical guidance for real-world Ancient Chinese NLP tasks.

The rise of QR code based phishing ("Quishing") poses a growing cybersecurity threat, as attackers increasingly exploit QR codes to bypass traditional phishing defenses. Existing detection methods predominantly focus on URL analysis, which requires the extraction of the QR code payload, and may inadvertently expose users to malicious content. Moreover, QR codes can encode various types of data beyond URLs, such as Wi-Fi credentials and payment information, making URL-based detection insufficient for broader security concerns. To address these gaps, we propose the first framework for quishing detection that directly analyzes QR code structure and pixel patterns without extracting the embedded content. We generated a dataset of phishing and benign QR codes and we used it to train and evaluate multiple machine learning models, including Logistic Regression, Decision Trees, Random Forest, Naive Bayes, LightGBM, and XGBoost. Our best-performing model (XGBoost) achieves an AUC of 0.9106, demonstrating the feasibility of QR-centric detection. Through feature importance analysis, we identify key visual indicators of malicious intent and refine our feature set by removing non-informative pixels, improving performance to an AUC of 0.9133 with a reduced feature space. Our findings reveal that the structural features of QR code correlate strongly with phishing risk. This work establishes a foundation for quishing mitigation and highlights the potential of direct QR analysis as a critical layer in modern phishing defenses.

Concept Factorization (CF) models have attracted widespread attention due to their excellent performance in data clustering. In recent years, many variant models based on CF have achieved great success in clustering by taking into account the internal geometric manifold structure of the dataset and using graph regularization techniques. However, their clustering performance depends greatly on the construction of the initial graph structure. In order to enable adaptive learning of the graph structure of the data, we propose a Concept Factorization Based on Self-Representation and Adaptive Graph Structure Learning (CFSRAG) Model. CFSRAG learns the affinity relationship between data through a self-representation method, and uses the learned affinity matrix to implement dynamic graph regularization constraints, thereby ensuring dynamic learning of the internal geometric structure of the data. Finally, we give the CFSRAG update rule and convergence analysis, and conduct comparative experiments on four real datasets. The results show that our model outperforms other state-of-the-art models.

We present Mixture of Discrete-time Gaussian Processes (MiDiGap), a novel approach for flexible policy representation and imitation learning in robot manipulation. MiDiGap enables learning from as few as five demonstrations using only camera observations and generalizes across a wide range of challenging tasks. It excels at long-horizon behaviors such as making coffee, highly constrained motions such as opening doors, dynamic actions such as scooping with a spatula, and multimodal tasks such as hanging a mug. MiDiGap learns these tasks on a CPU in less than a minute and scales linearly to large datasets. We also develop a rich suite of tools for inference-time steering using evidence such as collision signals and robot kinematic constraints. This steering enables novel generalization capabilities, including obstacle avoidance and cross-embodiment policy transfer. MiDiGap achieves state-of-the-art performance on diverse few-shot manipulation benchmarks. On constrained RLBench tasks, it improves policy success by 76 percentage points and reduces trajectory cost by 67%. On multimodal tasks, it improves policy success by 48 percentage points and increases sample efficiency by a factor of 20. In cross-embodiment transfer, it more than doubles policy success. We make the code publicly available at https://midigap.cs.uni-freiburg.de.