Causal machine learning (CML) enables individualized estimation of treatment effects, offering critical advantages over traditional correlation-based methods. However, existing approaches for medical survival data with censoring such as causal survival forests estimate effects at fixed time points, limiting their ability to capture dynamic changes over time. We introduce Causal Analysis for Survival Trajectories (CAST), a novel framework that models treatment effects as continuous functions of time following treatment. By combining parametric and non-parametric methods, CAST overcomes the limitations of discrete time-point analysis to estimate continuous effect trajectories. Using the RADCURE dataset [1] of 2,651 patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) as a clinically relevant example, CAST models how chemotherapy and radiotherapy effects evolve over time at the population and individual levels. By capturing the temporal dynamics of treatment response, CAST reveals how treatment effects rise, peak, and decline over the follow-up period, helping clinicians determine when and for whom treatment benefits are maximized. This framework advances the application of CML to personalized care in HNSCC and other life-threatening medical conditions. Source code/data available at: https://github.com/CAST-FW/HNSCC

Many classification performance metrics exist, each suited to a specific application. However, these metrics often differ in scale and can exhibit varying sensitivity to class imbalance rates in the test set. As a result, it is difficult to use the nominal values of these metrics to interpret and evaluate classification performances, especially when imbalance rates vary. To address this problem, we introduce the outperformance score function, a universal standardization method for confusion-matrix-based classification performance (CMBCP) metrics. It maps any given metric to a common scale of $[0,1]$, while providing a clear and consistent interpretation. Specifically, the outperformance score represents the percentile rank of the observed classification performance within a reference distribution of possible performances. This unified framework enables meaningful comparison and monitoring of classification performance across test sets with differing imbalance rates. We illustrate how the outperformance scores can be applied to a variety of commonly used classification performance metrics and demonstrate the robustness of our method through experiments on real-world datasets spanning multiple classification applications.

Small nucleolar RNAs (snoRNAs) are increasingly recognized for their critical role in the pathogenesis and characterization of various human diseases. Consequently, the precise identification of snoRNA-disease associations (SDAs) is essential for the progression of diseases and the advancement of treatment strategies. However, conventional biological experimental approaches are costly, time-consuming, and resource-intensive; therefore, machine learning-based computational methods offer a promising solution to mitigate these limitations. This paper proposes a model called 'GBDTSVM', representing a novel and efficient machine learning approach for predicting snoRNA-disease associations by leveraging a Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). 'GBDTSVM' effectively extracts integrated snoRNA-disease feature representations utilizing GBDT and SVM is subsequently utilized to classify and identify potential associations. Furthermore, the method enhances the accuracy of these predictions by incorporating Gaussian kernel profile similarity for both snoRNAs and diseases. Experimental evaluation of the GBDTSVM model demonstrated superior performance compared to state-of-the-art methods in the field, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of 0.96 and an area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) of 0.95 on MDRF dataset. Moreover, our model shows superior performance on two more datasets named LSGT and PsnoD. Additionally, a case study on the predicted snoRNA-disease associations verified the top 10 predicted snoRNAs across nine prevalent diseases, further validating the efficacy of the GBDTSVM approach. These results underscore the model's potential as a robust tool for advancing snoRNA-related disease research. Source codes and datasets our proposed framework can be obtained from: https://github.com/mariamuna04/gbdtsvm

Obtaining real-world network datasets is often challenging because of privacy, security, and computational constraints. In the absence of such datasets, graph generative models become essential tools for creating synthetic datasets. In this paper, we introduce a novel machine learning model for generating high-fidelity synthetic network flow datasets that are representative of real-world networks. Our approach involves the generation of dynamic multigraphs using a stochastic Kronecker graph generator for structure generation and a tabular generative adversarial network for feature generation. We further employ an XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) model for graph alignment, ensuring accurate overlay of features onto the generated graph structure. We evaluate our model using new metrics that assess both the accuracy and diversity of the synthetic graphs. Our results demonstrate improvements in accuracy over previous large-scale graph generation methods while maintaining similar efficiency. We also explore the trade-off between accuracy and diversity in synthetic graph dataset creation, a topic not extensively covered in related works. Our contributions include the synthesis and evaluation of large real-world netflow datasets and the definition of new metrics for evaluating synthetic graph generative models.

Diabetes is one of the most prevalent diseases worldwide, characterized by persistently high blood sugar levels, capable of damaging various internal organs and systems. Diabetes patients require routine check-ups, resulting in a time series of laboratory records, such as hemoglobin A1c, which reflects each patient's health behavior over time and informs their doctor's recommendations. Clustering patients into groups based on their entire time series data assists doctors in making recommendations and choosing treatments without the need to review all records. However, time series clustering of this type of dataset introduces some challenges; patients visit their doctors at different time points, making it difficult to capture and match trends, peaks, and patterns. Additionally, two aspects must be considered: differences in the levels of laboratory results and differences in trends and patterns. To address these challenges, we introduce a new clustering algorithm called Time and Trend Traveling Time Series Clustering (4TaStiC), using a base dissimilarity measure combined with Euclidean and Pearson correlation metrics. We evaluated this algorithm on artificial datasets, comparing its performance with that of seven existing methods. The results show that 4TaStiC outperformed the other methods on the targeted datasets. Finally, we applied 4TaStiC to cluster a cohort of 1,989 type 2 diabetes patients at Siriraj Hospital. Each group of patients exhibits clear characteristics that will benefit doctors in making efficient clinical decisions. Furthermore, the proposed algorithm can be applied to contexts outside the medical field.

Human cognition is deeply intertwined with a sense of time, known as Chronoception. This sense allows us to judge how long facts remain valid and when knowledge becomes outdated. Despite progress in vision, language, and motor control, AI still struggles to reason about temporal validity. We introduce Chronocept, the first benchmark to model temporal validity as a continuous probability distribution over time. Using skew-normal curves fitted along semantically decomposed temporal axes, Chronocept captures nuanced patterns of emergence, decay, and peak relevance. It includes two datasets: Benchmark I (atomic facts) and Benchmark II (multi-sentence passages). Annotations show strong inter-annotator agreement (84% and 89%). Our baselines predict curve parameters - location, scale, and skewness - enabling interpretable, generalizable learning and outperforming classification-based approaches. Chronocept fills a foundational gap in AI's temporal reasoning, supporting applications in knowledge grounding, fact-checking, retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), and proactive agents. Code and data are publicly available.

Vector databases have emerged as a new type of systems that support efficient querying of high-dimensional vectors. Many of these offer their database as a service in the cloud. However, the variety of available CPUs and the lack of vector search benchmarks across CPUs make it difficult for users to choose one. In this study, we show that CPU microarchitectures available in the cloud perform significantly differently across vector search scenarios. For instance, in an IVF index on float32 vectors, AMD's Zen4 gives almost 3x more queries per second (QPS) compared to Intel's Sapphire Rapids, but for HNSW indexes, the tables turn. However, when looking at the number of queries per dollar (QP$), Graviton3 is the best option for most indexes and quantization settings, even over Graviton4 (Table 1). With this work, we hope to guide users in getting the best "bang for the buck" when deploying vector search systems.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) models frequently encounter hallucination phenomena when integrating external information with internal parametric knowledge. Empirical studies demonstrate that the disequilibrium between external contextual information and internal parametric knowledge constitutes a primary factor in hallucination generation. Existing hallucination detection methodologies predominantly emphasize either the external or internal mechanism in isolation, thereby overlooking their synergistic effects. The recently proposed ReDeEP framework decouples these dual mechanisms, identifying two critical contributors to hallucinations: excessive reliance on parametric knowledge encoded in feed-forward networks (FFN) and insufficient utilization of external information by attention mechanisms (particularly copy heads). ReDeEP quantitatively assesses these factors to detect hallucinations and dynamically modulates the contributions of FFNs and copy heads to attenuate their occurrence. Nevertheless, ReDeEP and numerous other hallucination detection approaches have been employed at logit-level uncertainty estimation or language-level self-consistency evaluation, inadequately address the semantic dimensions of model responses, resulting in inconsistent hallucination assessments in RAG implementations. Building upon ReDeEP's foundation, this paper introduces SEReDeEP, which enhances computational processes through semantic entropy captured via trained linear probes, thereby achieving hallucination assessments that more accurately reflect ground truth evaluations.

-- This report presents our reinforcement learning-based approach for the swing-up and stabilisation tasks of the acrobot and pendubot, tailored specifcially to the updated guidelines of the 3rd AI Olympics at ICRA 2025. Building upon our previously developed A verage-Reward Entropy Advantage Policy Optimization (AR-EAPO) algorithm, we refined our solution to effectively address the new competition scenarios and evaluation metrics. Extensive simulations validate that our controller robustly manages these revised tasks, demonstrating adaptability and effectiveness within the updated framework. Building upon prior competitions at IJCAI 2023 [3] and IROS 2024 [4], the current edition places particular emphasis on global policy robustness, requiring solutions for reliable swing-up stabilisation tasks from arbitrary initial configurations under significantly increased external disturbances. The competition maintains its use of two different configurations: the acrobot, characterised by an inactive shoulder joint, and the pendubot, with an inactive elbow joint.

Background and Objective. Research in the cross-modal medical image translation domain has been very productive over the past few years in tackling the scarce availability of large curated multimodality datasets with the promising performance of GAN-based architectures. However, only a few of these studies assessed task-based related performance of these synthetic data, especially for the training of deep models. Method. We design and compare different GAN-based frameworks for generating synthetic brain [18F]fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET images from T1 weighted MRI data. We first perform standard qualitative and quantitative visual quality evaluation. Then, we explore further impact of using these fake PET data in the training of a deep unsupervised anomaly detection (UAD) model designed to detect subtle epilepsy lesions in T1 MRI and FDG PET images. We introduce novel diagnostic task-oriented quality metrics of the synthetic FDG PET data tailored to our unsupervised detection task, then use these fake data to train a use case UAD model combining a deep representation learning based on siamese autoencoders with a OC-SVM density support estimation model. This model is trained on normal subjects only and allows the detection of any variation from the pattern of the normal population. We compare the detection performance of models trained on 35 paired real MR T1 of normal subjects paired either on 35 true PET images or on 35 synthetic PET images generated from the best performing generative models. Performance analysis is conducted on 17 exams of epilepsy patients undergoing surgery. Results. The best performing GAN-based models allow generating realistic fake PET images of control subject with SSIM and PSNR values around 0.9 and 23.8, respectively and in distribution (ID) with regard to the true control dataset. The best UAD model trained on these synthetic normative PET data allows reaching 74% sensitivity. Conclusion. Our results confirm that GAN-based models are the best suited for MR T1 to FDG PET translation, outperforming transformer or diffusion models. We also demonstrate the diagnostic value of these synthetic data for the training of UAD models and evaluation on clinical exams of epilepsy patients. Our code and the normative image dataset are available.