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 Statistical Learning


Simultaneous Optimization of Efficiency and Degradation in Tunable HTL-Free Perovskite Solar Cells with MWCNT-Integrated Back Contact Using a Machine Learning-Derived Polynomial Regressor

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Perovskite solar cells (PSCs) without a hole transport layer (HTL) offer a cost-effective and stable alternative to conventional architectures, utilizing only an absorber layer and an electron transport layer (ETL). This study presents a machine learning (ML)-driven framework to optimize the efficiency and stability of HTL-free PSCs by integrating experimental validation with numerical simulations. Excellent agreement is achieved between a fabricated device and its simulated counterpart at a molar fraction \( x = 68.7\% \) in \(\mathrm{MAPb}_{1-x}\mathrm{Sb}_{2x/3}\mathrm{I}_3\), where MA is methylammonium. A dataset of 1650 samples is generated by varying molar fraction, absorber defect density, thickness, and ETL doping, with corresponding efficiency and 50-hour degradation as targets. A fourth-degree polynomial regressor (PR-4) shows the best performance, achieving RMSEs of 0.0179 and 0.0117, and \( R^2 \) scores of 1 and 0.999 for efficiency and degradation, respectively. The derived model generalizes beyond the training range and is used in an L-BFGS-B optimization algorithm with a weighted objective function to maximize efficiency and minimize degradation. This improves device efficiency from 13.7\% to 16.84\% and reduces degradation from 6.61\% to 2.39\% over 1000 hours. Finally, the dataset is labeled into superior and inferior classes, and a multilayer perceptron (MLP) classifier achieves 100\% accuracy, successfully identifying optimal configurations.


On Minimax Estimation of Parameters in Softmax-Contaminated Mixture of Experts

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The softmax-contaminated mixture of experts (MoE) model is deployed when a large-scale pre-trained model, which plays the role of a fixed expert, is fine-tuned for learning downstream tasks by including a new contamination part, or prompt, functioning as a new, trainable expert. Despite its popularity and relevance, the theoretical properties of the softmax-contaminated MoE have remained unexplored in the literature. In the paper, we study the convergence rates of the maximum likelihood estimator of gating and prompt parameters in order to gain insights into the statistical properties and potential challenges of fine-tuning with a new prompt. We find that the estimability of these parameters is compromised when the prompt acquires overlapping knowledge with the pre-trained model, in the sense that we make precise by formulating a novel analytic notion of distinguishability. Under distinguishability of the pre-trained and prompt models, we derive minimax optimal estimation rates for all the gating and prompt parameters. By contrast, when the distinguishability condition is violated, these estimation rates become significantly slower due to their dependence on the prompt convergence rate to the pre-trained model. Finally, we empirically corroborate our theoretical findings through several numerical experiments.


Weighted Leave-One-Out Cross Validation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We present a weighted version of Leave-One-Out (LOO) cross-validation for estimating the Integrated Squared Error (ISE) when approximating an unknown function by a predictor that depends linearly on evaluations of the function over a finite collection of sites. The method relies on the construction of the best linear estimator of the squared prediction error at an arbitrary unsampled site based on squared LOO residuals, assuming that the function is a realization of a Gaussian Process (GP). A theoretical analysis of performance of the ISE estimator is presented, and robustness with respect to the choice of the GP kernel is investigated first analytically, then through numerical examples. Overall, the estimation of ISE is significantly more precise than with classical, unweighted, LOO cross validation. Application to model selection is briefly considered through examples.


Regret Analysis of Average-Reward Unichain MDPs via an Actor-Critic Approach

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Actor-Critic methods are widely used for their scalability, yet existing theoretical guarantees for infinite-horizon average-reward Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) often rely on restrictive ergodicity assumptions. We propose NAC-B, a Natural Actor-Critic with Batching, that achieves order-optimal regret of $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ in infinite-horizon average-reward MDPs under the unichain assumption, which permits both transient states and periodicity. This assumption is among the weakest under which the classic policy gradient theorem remains valid for average-reward settings. NAC-B employs function approximation for both the actor and the critic, enabling scalability to problems with large state and action spaces. The use of batching in our algorithm helps mitigate potential periodicity in the MDP and reduces stochasticity in gradient estimates, and our analysis formalizes these benefits through the introduction of the constants $C_{\text{hit}}$ and $C_{\text{tar}}$, which characterize the rate at which empirical averages over Markovian samples converge to the stationary distribution.


Minimalist Softmax Attention Provably Learns Constrained Boolean Functions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the computational limits of learning $k$-bit Boolean functions (specifically, $\mathrm{AND}$, $\mathrm{OR}$, and their noisy variants), using a minimalist single-head softmax-attention mechanism, where $k=ฮ˜(d)$ relevant bits are selected from $d$ inputs. We show that these simple $\mathrm{AND}$ and $\mathrm{OR}$ functions are unsolvable with a single-head softmax-attention mechanism alone. However, with teacher forcing, the same minimalist attention is capable of solving them. These findings offer two key insights: Architecturally, solving these Boolean tasks requires only minimalist attention, without deep Transformer blocks or FFNs. Methodologically, one gradient descent update with supervision suffices and replaces the multi-step Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning scheme of [Kim and Suzuki, ICLR 2025] for solving Boolean problems. Together, the bounds expose a fundamental gap between what this minimal architecture achieves under ideal supervision and what is provably impossible under standard training.


Training Latent Diffusion Models with Interacting Particle Algorithms

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce a novel particle-based algorithm for end-to-end training of latent diffusion models. We reformulate the training task as minimizing a free energy functional and obtain a gradient flow that does so. By approximating the latter with a system of interacting particles, we obtain the algorithm, which we underpin theoretically by providing error guarantees. The novel algorithm compares favorably in experiments with previous particle-based methods and variational inference analogues.


Learning Latent Variable Models via Jarzynski-adjusted Langevin Algorithm

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We utilise a sampler originating from nonequilibrium statistical mechanics, termed here Jarzynski-adjusted Langevin algorithm (JALA), to build statistical estimation methods in latent variable models. We achieve this by leveraging Jarzynski's equality and developing algorithms based on a weighted version of the unadjusted Langevin algorithm (ULA) with recursively updated weights. Adapting this for latent variable models, we develop a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method that provides the maximum marginal likelihood estimate of the parameters, termed JALA-EM. Under suitable regularity assumptions on the marginal likelihood, we provide a nonasymptotic analysis of the JALA-EM scheme implemented with stochastic gradient descent and show that it provably converges to the maximum marginal likelihood estimate. We demonstrate the performance of JALA-EM on a variety of latent variable models and show that it performs comparably to existing methods in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency. Importantly, the ability to recursively estimate marginal likelihoods - an uncommon feature among scalable methods - makes our approach particularly suited for model selection, which we validate through dedicated experiments.


Statistical inference for Linear Stochastic Approximation with Markovian Noise

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper we derive non-asymptotic Berry-Esseen bounds for Polyak-Ruppert averaged iterates of the Linear Stochastic Approximation (LSA) algorithm driven by the Markovian noise. Our analysis yields $\mathcal{O}(n^{-1/4})$ convergence rates to the Gaussian limit in the Kolmogorov distance. We further establish the non-asymptotic validity of a multiplier block bootstrap procedure for constructing the confidence intervals, guaranteeing consistent inference under Markovian sampling. Our work provides the first non-asymptotic guarantees on the rate of convergence of bootstrap-based confidence intervals for stochastic approximation with Markov noise. Moreover, we recover the classical rate of order $\mathcal{O}(n^{-1/8})$ up to logarithmic factors for estimating the asymptotic variance of the iterates of the LSA algorithm.


Adversarial Bandit over Bandits: Hierarchical Bandits for Online Configuration Management

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Motivated by dynamic parameter optimization in finite, but large action (configurations) spaces, this work studies the nonstochastic multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem in metric action spaces with oblivious Lipschitz adversaries. We propose ABoB, a hierarchical Adversarial Bandit over Bandits algorithm that can use state-of-the-art existing "flat" algorithms, but additionally clusters similar configurations to exploit local structures and adapt to changing environments. We prove that in the worst-case scenario, such clustering approach cannot hurt too much and ABoB guarantees a standard worst-case regret bound of $O\left(k^{\frac{1}{2}}T^{\frac{1}{2}}\right)$, where $T$ is the number of rounds and $k$ is the number of arms, matching the traditional flat approach. However, under favorable conditions related to the algorithm properties, clusters properties, and certain Lipschitz conditions, the regret bound can be improved to $O\left(k^{\frac{1}{4}}T^{\frac{1}{2}}\right)$. Simulations and experiments on a real storage system demonstrate that ABoB, using standard algorithms like EXP3 and Tsallis-INF, achieves lower regret and faster convergence than the flat method, up to 50% improvement in known previous setups, nonstochastic and stochastic, as well as in our settings.


LocalKMeans: Convergence of Lloyd's Algorithm with Distributed Local Iterations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we analyze the classical $K$-means alternating-minimization algorithm, also known as Lloyd's algorithm (Lloyd, 1956), for a mixture of Gaussians in a data-distributed setting that incorporates local iteration steps. Assuming unlabeled data distributed across multiple machines, we propose an algorithm, LocalKMeans, that performs Lloyd's algorithm in parallel in the machines by running its iterations on local data, synchronizing only every $L$ of such local steps. We characterize the cost of these local iterations against the non-distributed setting, and show that the price paid for the local steps is a higher required signal-to-noise ratio. While local iterations were theoretically studied in the past for gradient-based learning methods, the analysis of unsupervised learning methods is more involved owing to the presence of latent variables, e.g. cluster identities, than that of an iterative gradient-based algorithm. To obtain our results, we adapt a virtual iterate method to work with a non-convex, non-smooth objective function, in conjunction with a tight statistical analysis of Lloyd steps.