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 Statistical Learning


Identifying Heart Attack Risk in Vulnerable Population: A Machine Learning Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly increased the incidence of post-infection cardiovascular events, particularly myocardial infarction, in individuals over 40. While the underlying mechanisms remain elusive, this study employs a hybrid machine learning approach to analyze epidemiological data in assessing 13 key heart attack risk factors and their susceptibility. Based on a unique dataset that combines demographic, biochemical, ECG, and thallium stress-tests, this study categorizes distinct subpopulations against varying risk profiles and then divides the population into 'at-risk' (AR) and 'not-at-risk' (NAR) groups using clustering algorithms. The study reveals strong association between the likelihood of experiencing a heart attack on the 13 risk factors studied. The aggravated risk for postmenopausal patients indicates compromised individual risk factors due to estrogen depletion that may be, further compromised by extraneous stress impacts, like anxiety and fear, aspects that have traditionally eluded data modeling predictions.


Efficient Identity and Position Graph Embedding via Spectral-Based Random Feature Aggregation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Graph neural networks (GNNs), which capture graph structures via a feature aggregation mechanism following the graph embedding framework, have demonstrated a powerful ability to support various tasks. According to the topology properties (e.g., structural roles or community memberships of nodes) to be preserved, graph embedding can be categorized into identity and position embedding. However, it is unclear for most GNN-based methods which property they can capture. Some of them may also suffer from low efficiency and scalability caused by several time- and space-consuming procedures (e.g., feature extraction and training). From a perspective of graph signal processing, we find that high- and low-frequency information in the graph spectral domain may characterize node identities and positions, respectively. Based on this investigation, we propose random feature aggregation (RFA) for efficient identity and position embedding, serving as an extreme ablation study regarding GNN feature aggregation. RFA (i) adopts a spectral-based GNN without learnable parameters as its backbone, (ii) only uses random noises as inputs, and (iii) derives embeddings via just one feed-forward propagation (FFP). Inspired by degree-corrected spectral clustering, we further introduce a degree correction mechanism to the GNN backbone. Surprisingly, our experiments demonstrate that two variants of RFA with high- and low-pass filters can respectively derive informative identity and position embeddings via just one FFP (i.e., without any training). As a result, RFA can achieve a better trade-off between quality and efficiency for both identity and position embedding over various baselines.


COM Adjustment Mechanism Control for Multi-Configuration Motion Stability of Unmanned Deformable Vehicle

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

An unmanned deformable vehicle is a wheel -legged robot that can transform between two configurations: a vehicular state and a humanoid state, which have different motion modes and stability characteristics. Aiming at the motion stability of an unmanned deformable vehicle in multiple configurations, a center -of -mass adjustment mechanism was designed in this study. Further, a motion stability hierarchical control algorithm was proposed based on this mechanism, and an electromechanical model based on a two -degree-of -freedom center -of -mass adjustment mechanism was established. An unmanned -deformable-vehicle vehicular-state steady -state steering dynamics model and a gait planning kinematic model of humanoid state walking were established. A stability hierarchical control strategy was designed b ased on the hybrid automata model, Fuzzy -PID control, K -means clustering algorithm, and variable universe fuzzy control - active disturbance rejection control (VUFC -ADRC) to realize the stability control of the unmanned deformable vehicle in multi -configuration motion. The simulation and test results showed that the steady-state steering stabi lity in the vehicular state and the walking stability in the humanoid state could be significantly improved by controlling the slider motion in the center-of -mass adjustment mechanism.


Fedivertex: a Graph Dataset based on Decentralized Social Networks for Trustworthy Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Decentralized machine learning - where each client keeps its own data locally and uses its own computational resources to collaboratively train a model by exchanging peer-to-peer messages - is increasingly popular, as it enables better scalability and control over the data. A major challenge in this setting is that learning dynamics depend on the topology of the communication graph, which motivates the use of real graph datasets for benchmarking decentralized algorithms. Unfortunately, existing graph datasets are largely limited to for-profit social networks crawled at a fixed point in time and often collected at the user scale, where links are heavily influenced by the platform and its recommendation algorithms. The Fediverse, which includes several free and open-source decentralized social media platforms such as Mastodon, Misskey, and Lemmy, offers an interesting real-world alternative. We introduce Fedivertex, a new dataset of 182 graphs, covering seven social networks from the Fediverse, crawled weekly over 14 weeks. We release the dataset along with a Python package to facilitate its use, and illustrate its utility on several tasks, including a new defederation task, which captures a process of link deletion observed on these networks.


Interpretable Credit Default Prediction with Ensemble Learning and SHAP

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--This study focuses on the problem of credit default prediction, builds a modeling framework based on machine learning, and conducts comparative experiments on a variety of mainstream classification algorithms. Through preprocessing, feature engineering, and model training of the Home Credit dataset, the performance of multiple models including logistic regression, random forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, etc. in terms of accuracy, precision, and recall is evaluated. The results show that the ensemble learning method has obvious advantages in predictive performance, especially in dealing with complex nonlinear relationships between features and data imbalance problems. At the same time, the SHAP method is used to analyze the importance and dependency of features, and it is found that the external credit score variable plays a dominant role in model decision making, which helps to improve the model's interpretability and practical application value. The research results provide effective reference and technical support for the intelligent development of credit risk control systems.


STITCH-OPE: Trajectory Stitching with Guided Diffusion for Off-Policy Evaluation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) estimates the performance of a target policy using offline data collected from a behavior policy, and is crucial in domains such as robotics or healthcare where direct interaction with the environment is costly or unsafe. Existing OPE methods are ineffective for high-dimensional, long-horizon problems, due to exponential blow-ups in variance from importance weighting or compounding errors from learned dynamics models. To address these challenges, we propose STITCH-OPE, a model-based generative framework that leverages denoising diffusion for long-horizon OPE in high-dimensional state and action spaces. Starting with a diffusion model pre-trained on the behavior data, STITCH-OPE generates synthetic trajectories from the target policy by guiding the denoising process using the score function of the target policy. STITCH-OPE proposes two technical innovations that make it advantageous for OPE: (1) prevents over-regularization by subtracting the score of the behavior policy during guidance, and (2) generates long-horizon trajectories by stitching partial trajectories together end-to-end. We provide a theoretical guarantee that under mild assumptions, these modifications result in an exponential reduction in variance versus long-horizon trajectory diffusion. Experiments on the D4RL and OpenAI Gym benchmarks show substantial improvement in mean squared error, correlation, and regret metrics compared to state-of-the-art OPE methods.


Semi-supervised Clustering Through Representation Learning of Large-scale EHR Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Electronic Health Records (EHR) offer rich real-world data for personalized medicine, providing insights into disease progression, treatment responses, and patient outcomes. However, their sparsity, heterogeneity, and high dimensionality make them difficult to model, while the lack of standardized ground truth further complicates predictive modeling. To address these challenges, we propose SCORE, a semi-supervised representation learning framework that captures multi-domain disease profiles through patient embeddings. SCORE employs a Poisson-Adapted Latent factor Mixture (PALM) Model with pre-trained code embeddings to characterize codified features and extract meaningful patient phenotypes and embeddings. To handle the computational challenges of large-scale data, it introduces a hybrid Expectation-Maximization (EM) and Gaussian Variational Approximation (GVA) algorithm, leveraging limited labeled data to refine estimates on a vast pool of unlabeled samples. We theoretically establish the convergence of this hybrid approach, quantify GVA errors, and derive SCORE's error rate under diverging embedding dimensions. Our analysis shows that incorporating unlabeled data enhances accuracy and reduces sensitivity to label scarcity. Extensive simulations confirm SCORE's superior finite-sample performance over existing methods. Finally, we apply SCORE to predict disability status for patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) using partially labeled EHR data, demonstrating that it produces more informative and predictive patient embeddings for multiple MS-related conditions compared to existing approaches.


RoGA: Towards Generalizable Deepfake Detection through Robust Gradient Alignment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advancements in domain generalization for deepfake detection have attracted significant attention, with previous methods often incorporating additional modules to prevent overfitting to domain-specific patterns. However, such regularization can hinder the optimization of the empirical risk minimization (ERM) objective, ultimately degrading model performance. In this paper, we propose a novel learning objective that aligns generalization gradient updates with ERM gradient updates. The key innovation is the application of perturbations to model parameters, aligning the ascending points across domains, which specifically enhances the robustness of deepfake detection models to domain shifts. This approach effectively preserves domain-invariant features while managing domain-specific characteristics, without introducing additional regularization. Experimental results on multiple challenging deepfake detection datasets demonstrate that our gradient alignment strategy outperforms state-of-the-art domain generalization techniques, confirming the efficacy of our method. The code is available at https://github.com/Lynn0925/RoGA.


Voronoi-grid-based Pareto Front Learning and Its Application to Collaborative Federated Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-objective optimization (MOO) exists extensively in machine learning, and aims to find a set of Pareto-optimal solutions, called the Pareto front, e.g., it is fundamental for multiple avenues of research in federated learning (FL). Pareto-Front Learning (PFL) is a powerful method implemented using Hypernetworks (PHNs) to approximate the Pareto front. This method enables the acquisition of a mapping function from a given preference vector to the solutions on the Pareto front. However, most existing PFL approaches still face two challenges: (a) sampling rays in high-dimensional spaces; (b) failing to cover the entire Pareto Front which has a convex shape. Here, we introduce a novel PFL framework, called as PHN-HVVS, which decomposes the design space into Voronoi grids and deploys a genetic algorithm (GA) for Voronoi grid partitioning within high-dimensional space. We put forward a new loss function, which effectively contributes to more extensive coverage of the resultant Pareto front and maximizes the HV Indicator. Experimental results on multiple MOO machine learning tasks demonstrate that PHN-HVVS outperforms the baselines significantly in generating Pareto front. Also, we illustrate that PHN-HVVS advances the methodologies of several recent problems in the FL field. The code is available at https://github.com/buptcmm/phnhvvs}{https://github.com/buptcmm/phnhvvs.


Emotion Classification In-Context in Spanish

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Classifying customer feedback into distinct emotion categories is essential for understanding sentiment and improving customer experience. In this paper, we classify customer feedback in Spanish into three emotion categories--positive, neutral, and negative--using advanced NLP and ML techniques. Traditional methods translate feedback from widely spoken languages to less common ones, resulting in a loss of semantic integrity and contextual nuances inherent to the original language. To address this limitation, we propose a hybrid approach that combines TF-IDF with BERT embeddings, effectively transforming Spanish text into rich numerical representations that preserve the semantic depth of the original language by using a Custom Stacking Ensemble (CSE) approach. To evaluate emotion classification, we utilize a range of models, including Logistic Regression, KNN, Bagging classifier with LGBM, and AdaBoost. The CSE model combines these classifiers as base models and uses a one-vs-all Logistic Regression as the meta-model. Our experimental results demonstrate that CSE significantly outperforms the individual and BERT model, achieving a test accuracy of 93.3% on the native Spanish dataset--higher than the accuracy obtained from the translated version. These findings underscore the challenges of emotion classification in Spanish and highlight the advantages of combining vec-torization techniques like TF-IDF with BERT for improved accuracy. Our results provide valuable insights for businesses seeking to leverage emotion classification to enhance customer feedback analysis and service improvements.