Statistical Learning
Multi-Exit Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks: enhancing accuracy and parsimony
Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) uniquely combine high accuracy with interpretability, making them valuable for scientific modeling. However, it is unclear a priori how deep a network needs to be for any given task, and deeper KANs can be difficult to optimize. Here we introduce multi-exit KANs, where each layer includes its own prediction branch, enabling the network to make accurate predictions at multiple depths simultaneously. This architecture provides deep supervision that improves training while discovering the right level of model complexity for each task. Multi-exit KANs consistently outperform standard, single-exit versions on synthetic functions, dynamical systems, and real-world datasets. Remarkably, the best predictions often come from earlier, simpler exits, revealing that these networks naturally identify smaller, more parsimonious and interpretable models without sacrificing accuracy. To automate this discovery, we develop a differentiable "learning to exit" algorithm that balances contributions from exits during training. Our approach offers scientists a practical way to achieve both high performance and interpretability, addressing a fundamental challenge in machine learning for scientific discovery.
Lower Ricci Curvature for Hypergraphs
Yang, Shiyi, Chen, Can, Li, Didong
Networks with higher-order interactions, prevalent in biological, social, and information systems, are naturally represented as hypergraphs, yet their structural complexity poses fundamental challenges for geometric characterization. While curvature-based methods offer powerful insights in graph analysis, existing extensions to hypergraphs suffer from critical trade-offs: combinatorial approaches such as Forman-Ricci curvature capture only coarse features, whereas geometric methods like Ollivier-Ricci curvature offer richer expressivity but demand costly optimal transport computations. To address these challenges, we introduce hypergraph lower Ricci curvature (HLRC), a novel curvature metric defined in closed form that achieves a principled balance between interpretability and efficiency. Evaluated across diverse synthetic and real-world hypergraph datasets, HLRC consistently reveals meaningful higher-order organization, distinguishing intra- from inter-community hyperedges, uncovering latent semantic labels, tracking temporal dynamics, and supporting robust clustering of hypergraphs based on global structure. By unifying geometric sensitivity with algorithmic simplicity, HLRC provides a versatile foundation for hypergraph analytics, with broad implications for tasks including node classification, anomaly detection, and generative modeling in complex systems.
N$^2$: A Unified Python Package and Test Bench for Nearest Neighbor-Based Matrix Completion
Chin, Caleb, Khubchandani, Aashish, Maskara, Harshvardhan, Choi, Kyuseong, Feitelberg, Jacob, Gong, Albert, Paul, Manit, Sadhukhan, Tathagata, Agarwal, Anish, Dwivedi, Raaz
Nearest neighbor (NN) methods have re-emerged as competitive tools for matrix completion, offering strong empirical performance and recent theoretical guarantees, including entry-wise error bounds, confidence intervals, and minimax optimality. Despite their simplicity, recent work has shown that NN approaches are robust to a range of missingness patterns and effective across diverse applications. This paper introduces N$^2$, a unified Python package and testbed that consolidates a broad class of NN-based methods through a modular, extensible interface. Built for both researchers and practitioners, N$^2$ supports rapid experimentation and benchmarking. Using this framework, we introduce a new NN variant that achieves state-of-the-art results in several settings. We also release a benchmark suite of real-world datasets, from healthcare and recommender systems to causal inference and LLM evaluation, designed to stress-test matrix completion methods beyond synthetic scenarios. Our experiments demonstrate that while classical methods excel on idealized data, NN-based techniques consistently outperform them in real-world settings.
Active Learning via Regression Beyond Realizability
Ganju, Atul, Aiyer, Shashaank, Sriraman, Ved, Sridharan, Karthik
We present a new active learning framework for multiclass classification based on surrogate risk minimization that operates beyond the standard realizability assumption. Existing surrogate-based active learning algorithms crucially rely on realizability$\unicode{x2014}$the assumption that the optimal surrogate predictor lies within the model class$\unicode{x2014}$limiting their applicability in practical, misspecified settings. In this work we show that under conditions significantly weaker than realizability, as long as the class of models considered is convex, one can still obtain a label and sample complexity comparable to prior work. Despite achieving similar rates, the algorithmic approaches from prior works can be shown to fail in non-realizable settings where our assumption is satisfied. Our epoch-based active learning algorithm departs from prior methods by fitting a model from the full class to the queried data in each epoch and returning an improper classifier obtained by aggregating these models.
A kernel conditional two-sample test
Massiani, Pierre-Franรงois, Fiedler, Christian, Haverbeck, Lukas, Solowjow, Friedrich, Trimpe, Sebastian
We propose a framework for hypothesis testing on conditional probability distributions, which we then use to construct conditional two-sample statistical tests. These tests identify the inputs -- called covariates in this context -- where two conditional expectations differ with high probability. Our key idea is to transform confidence bounds of a learning method into a conditional two-sample test, and we instantiate this principle for kernel ridge regression (KRR) and conditional kernel mean embeddings. We generalize existing pointwise-in-time or time-uniform confidence bounds for KRR to previously-inaccessible yet essential cases such as infinite-dimensional outputs with non-trace-class kernels. These bounds enable circumventing the need for independent data in our statistical tests, since they allow online sampling. We also introduce bootstrapping schemes leveraging the parametric form of testing thresholds identified in theory to avoid tuning inaccessible parameters, making our method readily applicable in practice. Such conditional two-sample tests are especially relevant in applications where data arrive sequentially or non-independently, or when output distributions vary with operational parameters. We demonstrate their utility through examples in process monitoring and comparison of dynamical systems. Overall, our results establish a comprehensive foundation for conditional two-sample testing, from theoretical guarantees to practical implementation, and advance the state-of-the-art on the concentration of vector-valued least squares estimation.
Asymptotics of SGD in Sequence-Single Index Models and Single-Layer Attention Networks
Arnaboldi, Luca, Loureiro, Bruno, Stephan, Ludovic, Krzakala, Florent, Zdeborova, Lenka
We study the dynamics of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for a class of sequence models termed Sequence Single-Index (SSI) models, where the target depends on a single direction in input space applied to a sequence of tokens. This setting generalizes classical single-index models to the sequential domain, encompassing simplified one-layer attention architectures. We derive a closed-form expression for the population loss in terms of a pair of sufficient statistics capturing semantic and positional alignment, and characterize the induced high-dimensional SGD dynamics for these coordinates. Our analysis reveals two distinct training phases: escape from uninformative initialization and alignment with the target subspace, and demonstrates how the sequence length and positional encoding influence convergence speed and learning trajectories. These results provide a rigorous and interpretable foundation for understanding how sequential structure in data can be beneficial for learning with attention-based models.
Position: There Is No Free Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification
Melev, Ivan, Kauermann, Goeran
Due to their intuitive appeal, Bayesian methods of modeling and uncertainty quantification have become popular in modern machine and deep learning. When providing a prior distribution over the parameter space, it is straightforward to obtain a distribution over the parameters that is conventionally interpreted as uncertainty quantification of the model. We challenge the validity of such Bayesian uncertainty quantification by discussing the equivalent optimization-based representation of Bayesian updating, provide an alternative interpretation that is coherent with the optimization-based perspective, propose measures of the quality of the Bayesian inferential stage, and suggest directions for future work.
Revisiting Unbiased Implicit Variational Inference
Pielok, Tobias, Bischl, Bernd, Rรผgamer, David
Recent years have witnessed growing interest in semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) methods due to their ability to rapidly generate samples from complex distributions. However, since the likelihood of these samples is non-trivial to estimate in high dimensions, current research focuses on finding effective SIVI training routines. Although unbiased implicit variational inference (UIVI) has largely been dismissed as imprecise and computationally prohibitive because of its inner MCMC loop, we revisit this method and show that UIVI's MCMC loop can be effectively replaced via importance sampling and the optimal proposal distribution can be learned stably by minimizing an expected forward Kullback-Leibler divergence without bias. Our refined approach demonstrates superior performance or parity with state-of-the-art methods on established SIVI benchmarks.
SubSearch: Robust Estimation and Outlier Detection for Stochastic Block Models via Subgraph Search
Bianco, Leonardo Martins, Keribin, Christine, Naulet, Zacharie
Community detection is a fundamental task in graph analysis, with methods often relying on fitting models like the Stochastic Block Model (SBM) to observed networks. While many algorithms can accurately estimate SBM parameters when the input graph is a perfect sample from the model, real-world graphs rarely conform to such idealized assumptions. Therefore, robust algorithms are crucial-ones that can recover model parameters even when the data deviates from the assumed distribution. In this work, we propose SubSearch, an algorithm for robustly estimating SBM parameters by exploring the space of subgraphs in search of one that closely aligns with the model's assumptions. Our approach also functions as an outlier detection method, properly identifying nodes responsible for the graph's deviation from the model and going beyond simple techniques like pruning high-degree nodes. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.
GCFL: A Gradient Correction-based Federated Learning Framework for Privacy-preserving CPSS
Wan, Jiayi, Zhu, Xiang, Liu, Fanzhen, Fan, Wei, Xu, Xiaolong
--Federated learning, as a distributed architecture, shows great promise for applications in Cyber-Physical-Social Systems (CPSS). In order to mitigate the privacy risks inherent in CPSS, the integration of differential privacy with federated learning has attracted considerable attention. Existing research mainly focuses on dynamically adjusting the noise added or discarding certain gradients to mitigate the noise introduced by differential privacy. However, these approaches fail to remove the noise that hinders convergence and correct the gradients affected by the noise, which significantly reduces the accuracy of model classification. T o overcome these challenges, this paper proposes a novel framework for differentially private federated learning that balances rigorous privacy guarantees with accuracy by introducing a server-side gradient correction mechanism. Specifically, after clients perform gradient clipping and noise perturbation, our framework detects deviations in the noisy local gradients and employs a projection mechanism to correct them, mitigating the negative impact of noise. Simultaneously, gradient projection promotes the alignment of gradients from different clients and guides the model towards convergence to a global optimum. We evaluate our framework on several benchmark datasets, and the experimental results demonstrate that it achieves state-of-the-art performance under the same privacy budget. HE proliferation of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSS) has revolutionized a wide range of sectors, including smart manufacturing, autonomous driving [1], and healthcare [2], [3], driving substantial advancements in both efficiency and intelligence [4]. By seamlessly integrating computation, communication, and physical processes, CPSS enables sophisticated real-time monitoring and control within complex systems, offering significant improvements in operational performance and decision-making processes [5]. Jiayi Wan is with the School of Software Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China (email: wanjiayi117@gmail.com). Xiang Zhu is with the College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, China (email: zhuxi-ang@nudt.edu.cn).