Statistical Learning
Evolutionary Developmental Biology Can Serve as the Conceptual Foundation for a New Design Paradigm in Artificial Intelligence
Erden, Zeki Doruk, Faltings, Boi
Artificial intelligence (AI), propelled by advancements in machine learning, has made significant strides in solving complex tasks. However, the current neural network-based paradigm, while effective, is heavily constrained by inherent limitations, primarily a lack of structural organization and a progression of learning that displays undesirable properties. As AI research progresses without a unifying framework, it either tries to patch weaknesses heuristically or draws loosely from biological mechanisms without strong theoretical foundations. Meanwhile, the recent paradigm shift in evolutionary understanding -- driven primarily by evolutionary developmental biology (EDB) -- has been largely overlooked in AI literature, despite a striking analogy between the Modern Synthesis and contemporary machine learning, evident in their shared assumptions, approaches, and limitations upon careful analysis. Consequently, the principles of adaptation from EDB that reshaped our understanding of the evolutionary process can also form the foundation of a unifying conceptual framework for the next design philosophy in AI, going beyond mere inspiration and grounded firmly in biology's first principles. This article provides a detailed overview of the analogy between the Modern Synthesis and modern machine learning, and outlines the core principles of a new AI design paradigm based on insights from EDB. To exemplify our analysis, we also present two learning system designs grounded in specific developmental principles -- regulatory connections, somatic variation and selection, and weak linkage -- that resolve multiple major limitations of contemporary machine learning in an organic manner, while also providing deeper insights into the role of these mechanisms in biological evolution.
Bridging Data-Driven and Physics-Based Models: A Consensus Multi-Model Kalman Filter for Robust Vehicle State Estimation
Mafi, Farid, Khoshnevisan, Ladan, Pirani, Mohammad, Khajepour, Amir
Vehicle state estimation presents a fundamental challenge for autonomous driving systems, requiring both physical interpretability and the ability to capture complex nonlinear behaviors across diverse operating conditions. Traditional methodologies often rely exclusively on either physics-based or data-driven models, each with complementary strengths and limitations that become most noticeable during critical scenarios. This paper presents a novel consensus multi-model Kalman filter framework that integrates heterogeneous model types to leverage their complementary strengths while minimizing individual weaknesses. We introduce two distinct methodologies for handling covariance propagation in data-driven models: a Koopman operator-based linearization approach enabling analytical covariance propagation, and an ensemble-based method providing unified uncertainty quantification across model types without requiring pretraining. Our approach implements an iterative consensus fusion procedure that dynamically weighs different models based on their demonstrated reliability in current operating conditions. The experimental results conducted on an electric all-wheel-drive Equinox vehicle demonstrate performance improvements over single-model techniques, with particularly significant advantages during challenging maneuvers and varying road conditions, confirming the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed methodology for safety-critical autonomous driving applications.
Glocal Smoothness: Line Search can really help!
Fox, Curtis, Mishkin, Aaron, Vaswani, Sharan, Schmidt, Mark
Iteration complexities for first-order optimization algorithms are typically stated in terms of a global Lipschitz constant of the gradient, and near-optimal results are achieved using fixed step sizes. But many objective functions that arise in practice have regions with small Lipschitz constants where larger step sizes can be used. Many local Lipschitz assumptions have been proposed, which have lead to results showing that adaptive step sizes and/or line searches yield improved convergence rates over fixed step sizes. However, these faster rates tend to depend on the iterates of the algorithm, which makes it difficult to compare the iteration complexities of different methods. We consider a simple characterization of global and local ("glocal") smoothness that only depends on properties of the function. This allows upper bounds on iteration complexities in terms of iterate-independent constants and enables us to compare iteration complexities between algorithms. Under this assumption it is straightforward to show the advantages of line searches over fixed step sizes, and that in some settings, gradient descent with line search has a better iteration complexity than accelerated methods with fixed step sizes. We further show that glocal smoothness can lead to improved complexities for the Polyak and AdGD step sizes, as well other algorithms including coordinate optimization, stochastic gradient methods, accelerated gradient methods, and non-linear conjugate gradient methods.
Large Language models for Time Series Analysis: Techniques, Applications, and Challenges
Shi, Feifei, Yin, Xueyan, Wang, Kang, Tu, Wanyu, Sun, Qifu, Ning, Huansheng
Time series analysis is pivotal in domains like financial forecasting and biomedical monitoring, yet traditional methods are constrained by limited nonlinear feature representation and long-term dependency capture. The emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) offers transformative potential by leveraging their cross-modal knowledge integration and inherent attention mechanisms for time series analysis. However, the development of general-purpose LLMs for time series from scratch is still hindered by data diversity, annotation scarcity, and computational requirements. This paper presents a systematic review of pre-trained LLM-driven time series analysis, focusing on enabling techniques, potential applications, and open challenges. First, it establishes an evolutionary roadmap of AI-driven time series analysis, from the early machine learning era, through the emerging LLM-driven paradigm, to the development of native temporal foundation models. Second, it organizes and systematizes the technical landscape of LLM-driven time series analysis from a workflow perspective, covering LLMs' input, optimization, and lightweight stages. Finally, it critically examines novel real-world applications and highlights key open challenges that can guide future research and innovation. The work not only provides valuable insights into current advances but also outlines promising directions for future development. It serves as a foundational reference for both academic and industrial researchers, paving the way for the development of more efficient, generalizable, and interpretable systems of LLM-driven time series analysis.
Linearly Solving Robust Rotation Estimation
Liu, Yinlong, Huang, Tianyu, Yang, Zhi-Xin
Rotation estimation plays a fundamental role in computer vision and robot tasks, and extremely robust rotation estimation is significantly useful for safety-critical applications. Typically, estimating a rotation is considered a non-linear and non-convex optimization problem that requires careful design. However, in this paper, we provide some new perspectives that solving a rotation estimation problem can be reformulated as solving a linear model fitting problem without dropping any constraints and without introducing any singularities. In addition, we explore the dual structure of a rotation motion, revealing that it can be represented as a great circle on a quaternion sphere surface. Accordingly, we propose an easily understandable voting-based method to solve rotation estimation. The proposed method exhibits exceptional robustness to noise and outliers and can be computed in parallel with graphics processing units (GPUs) effortlessly. Particularly, leveraging the power of GPUs, the proposed method can obtain a satisfactory rotation solution for large-scale($10^6$) and severely corrupted (99$\%$ outlier ratio) rotation estimation problems under 0.5 seconds. Furthermore, to validate our theoretical framework and demonstrate the superiority of our proposed method, we conduct controlled experiments and real-world dataset experiments. These experiments provide compelling evidence supporting the effectiveness and robustness of our approach in solving rotation estimation problems.
RETUYT-INCO at BEA 2025 Shared Task: How Far Can Lightweight Models Go in AI-powered Tutor Evaluation?
Góngora, Santiago, Sastre, Ignacio, Robaina, Santiago, Remersaro, Ignacio, Chiruzzo, Luis, Rosá, Aiala
In this paper, we present the RETUYT-INCO participation at the BEA 2025 shared task. Our participation was characterized by the decision of using relatively small models, with fewer than 1B parameters. This self-imposed restriction tries to represent the conditions in which many research labs or institutions are in the Global South, where computational power is not easily accessible due to its prohibitive cost. Even under this restrictive self-imposed setting, our models managed to stay competitive with the rest of teams that participated in the shared task. According to the $exact\ F_1$ scores published by the organizers, the performance gaps between our models and the winners were as follows: $6.46$ in Track 1; $10.24$ in Track 2; $7.85$ in Track 3; $9.56$ in Track 4; and $13.13$ in Track 5. Considering that the minimum difference with a winner team is $6.46$ points -- and the maximum difference is $13.13$ -- according to the $exact\ F_1$ score, we find that models with a size smaller than 1B parameters are competitive for these tasks, all of which can be run on computers with a low-budget GPU or even without a GPU.
The Sample Complexity of Parameter-Free Stochastic Convex Optimization
Lawrence, Jared, Kalinsky, Ari, Bradfield, Hannah, Carmon, Yair, Hinder, Oliver
We study the sample complexity of stochastic convex optimization when problem parameters, e.g., the distance to optimality, are unknown. We pursue two strategies. First, we develop a reliable model selection method that avoids overfitting the validation set. This method allows us to generically tune the learning rate of stochastic optimization methods to match the optimal known-parameter sample complexity up to $\log\log$ factors. Second, we develop a regularization-based method that is specialized to the case that only the distance to optimality is unknown. This method provides perfect adaptability to unknown distance to optimality, demonstrating a separation between the sample and computational complexity of parameter-free stochastic convex optimization. Combining these two methods allows us to simultaneously adapt to multiple problem structures. Experiments performing few-shot learning on CIFAR-10 by fine-tuning CLIP models and prompt engineering Gemini to count shapes indicate that our reliable model selection method can help mitigate overfitting to small validation sets.
CLEAN-MI: A Scalable and Efficient Pipeline for Constructing High-Quality Neurodata in Motor Imagery Paradigm
Liu, Dingkun, Chen, Zhu, Wu, Dongrui
The construction of large-scale, high-quality datasets is a fundamental prerequisite for developing robust and generalizable foundation models in motor imagery (MI)-based brain-computer interfaces (BCIs). However, EEG signals collected from different subjects and devices are often plagued by low signal-to-noise ratio, heterogeneity in electrode configurations, and substantial inter-subject variability, posing significant challenges for effective model training. In this paper, we propose CLEAN-MI, a scalable and systematic data construction pipeline for constructing large-scale, efficient, and accurate neurodata in the MI paradigm. CLEAN-MI integrates frequency band filtering, channel template selection, subject screening, and marginal distribution alignment to systematically filter out irrelevant or low-quality data and standardize multi-source EEG datasets. We demonstrate the effectiveness of CLEAN-MI on multiple public MI datasets, achieving consistent improvements in data quality and classification performance.
Measuring multi-calibration
Guy, Ido, Haimovich, Daniel, Linder, Fridolin, Okati, Nastaran, Perini, Lorenzo, Tax, Niek, Tygert, Mark
A suitable scalar metric can help measure multi-calibration, defined as follows. When the expected values of observed responses are equal to corresponding predicted probabilities, the probabilistic predictions are known as "perfectly calibrated." When the predicted probabilities are perfectly calibrated simultaneously across several subpopulations, the probabilistic predictions are known as "perfectly multi-calibrated." In practice, predicted probabilities are seldom perfectly multi-calibrated, so a statistic measuring the distance from perfect multi-calibration is informative. A recently proposed metric for calibration, based on the classical Kuiper statistic, is a natural basis for a new metric of multi-calibration and avoids well-known problems of metrics based on binning or kernel density estimation. The newly proposed metric weights the contributions of different subpopulations in proportion to their signal-to-noise ratios; data analyses' ablations demonstrate that the metric becomes noisy when omitting the signal-to-noise ratios from the metric. Numerical examples on benchmark data sets illustrate the new metric.
Differential Privacy in Machine Learning: From Symbolic AI to LLMs
Aguilera-Martínez, Francisco, Berzal, Fernando
Machine learning models should not reveal particular information that is not otherwise accessible. Differential privacy provides a formal framework to mitigate privacy risks by ensuring that the inclusion or exclusion of any single data point does not significantly alter the output of an algorithm, thus limiting the exposure of private information. This survey paper explores the foundational definitions of differential privacy, reviews its original formulations and tracing its evolution through key research contributions. It then provides an in-depth examination of how DP has been integrated into machine learning models, analyzing existing proposals and methods to preserve privacy when training ML models. Finally, it describes how DP-based ML techniques can be evaluated in practice. %Finally, it discusses the broader implications of DP, highlighting its potential for public benefit, its real-world applications, and the challenges it faces, including vulnerabilities to adversarial attacks. By offering a comprehensive overview of differential privacy in machine learning, this work aims to contribute to the ongoing development of secure and responsible AI systems.