Statistical Learning
Quantum Neural Networks for Propensity Score Estimation and Survival Analysis in Observational Biomedical Studies
Novák, Vojtěch, Zelinka, Ivan, Přibylová, Lenka, Martínek, Lubomír
This study investigates the application of quantum neural networks (QNNs) for propensity score estimation to address selection bias in comparing survival outcomes between laparoscopic and open surgical techniques in a cohort of 1177 colorectal carcinoma patients treated at University Hospital Ostrava (2001-2009). Using a dataset with 77 variables, including patient demographics and tumor characteristics, we developed QNN-based propensity score models focusing on four key covariates (Age, Sex, Stage, BMI). The QNN architecture employed a linear ZFeatureMap for data encoding, a SummedPaulis operator for predictions, and the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES) for robust, gradient-free optimization in noisy quantum environments. Variance regularization was integrated to mitigate quantum measurement noise, with simulations conducted under exact, sampling (1024 shots), and noisy hardware (FakeManhattanV2) conditions. QNNs, particularly with simulated hardware noise, outperformed classical logistic regression and gradient boosted machines in small samples (AUC up to 0.750 for n=100), with noise modeling enhancing predictive stability. Propensity score matching and weighting, optimized via genetic matching and matching weights, achieved covariate balance with standardized mean differences of 0.0849 and 0.0869, respectively. Survival analyses using Kaplan-Meier estimation, Cox proportional hazards, and Aalen additive regression revealed no significant survival differences post-adjustment (p-values 0.287-0.851), indicating confounding bias in unadjusted outcomes. These results highlight QNNs' potential, enhanced by CMA-ES and noise-aware strategies, to improve causal inference in biomedical research, particularly for small-sample, high-dimensional datasets.
Evaluating Generalization and Representation Stability in Small LMs via Prompting, Fine-Tuning and Out-of-Distribution Prompts
We investigate the generalization capabilities of small language models under two popular adaptation paradigms: few-shot prompting and supervised fine-tuning. While prompting is often favored for its parameter efficiency and flexibility, it remains unclear how robust this approach is in low-resource settings and under distributional shifts. This paper presents a comparative study of prompting and fine-tuning across task formats, prompt styles, and model scales, with a focus on their behavior in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution (OOD) settings. Beyond accuracy, we analyze the internal representations learned by each approach to assess the stability and abstraction of task-specific features. Our findings highlight critical differences in how small models internalize and generalize knowledge under different adaptation strategies. This work offers practical guidance for model selection in low-data regimes and contributes empirical insight into the ongoing debate over prompting versus fine-tuning. Code for the experiments is available at the following
Provably Improving Generalization of Few-Shot Models with Synthetic Data
Nguyen, Lan-Cuong, Nguyen-Tri, Quan, Khanh, Bang Tran, Le, Dung D., Tran-Thanh, Long, Than, Khoat
Few-shot image classification remains challenging due to the scarcity of labeled training examples. Augmenting them with synthetic data has emerged as a promising way to alleviate this issue, but models trained on synthetic samples often face performance degradation due to the inherent gap between real and synthetic distributions. To address this limitation, we develop a theoretical framework that quantifies the impact of such distribution discrepancies on supervised learning, specifically in the context of image classification. More importantly, our framework suggests practical ways to generate good synthetic samples and to train a predictor with high generalization ability. Building upon this framework, we propose a novel theoretical-based algorithm that integrates prototype learning to optimize both data partitioning and model training, effectively bridging the gap between real few-shot data and synthetic data. Extensive experiments results show that our approach demonstrates superior performance compared to state-of-the-art methods, outperforming them across multiple datasets.
TSPulse: Dual Space Tiny Pre-Trained Models for Rapid Time-Series Analysis
Ekambaram, Vijay, Kumar, Subodh, Jati, Arindam, Mukherjee, Sumanta, Sakai, Tomoya, Dayama, Pankaj, Gifford, Wesley M., Kalagnanam, Jayant
The rise of time-series pre-trained models has advanced temporal representation learning, but current state-of-the-art models are often large-scale, requiring substantial compute. We introduce TSPulse, ultra-compact time-series pre-trained models with only 1M parameters, specialized to perform strongly across classification, anomaly detection, imputation, and retrieval tasks. TSPulse introduces innovations at both the architecture and task levels. At the architecture level, it employs a dual-space masked reconstruction, learning from both time and frequency domains to capture complementary signals. This is further enhanced by a dual-embedding disentanglement, generating both detailed embeddings for fine-grained analysis and high-level semantic embeddings for broader task understanding. Notably, TSPulse's semantic embeddings are robust to shifts in time, magnitude, and noise, which is important for robust retrieval. At the task level, TSPulse incorporates TSLens, a fine-tuning component enabling task-specific feature attention. It also introduces a multi-head triangulation technique that correlates deviations from multiple prediction heads, enhancing anomaly detection by fusing complementary model outputs. Additionally, a hybrid mask pretraining is proposed to improves zero-shot imputation by reducing pre-training bias. These architecture and task innovations collectively contribute to TSPulse's significant performance gains: 5-16% on the UEA classification benchmarks, +20% on the TSB-AD anomaly detection leaderboard, +50% in zero-shot imputation, and +25% in time-series retrieval. Remarkably, these results are achieved with just 1M parameters (10-100X smaller than existing SOTA models) and allow GPU-free inference, setting a new standard for efficient time-series pre-trained models. The models can be accessed from https://huggingface.co/ibm-granite/granite-timeseries-tspulse-r1
First-order methods for stochastic and finite-sum convex optimization with deterministic constraints
In this paper, we study a class of stochastic and finite-sum convex optimization problems with deterministic constraints. Existing methods typically aim to find an $ε$-$expectedly\ feasible\ stochastic\ optimal$ solution, in which the expected constraint violation and expected optimality gap are both within a prescribed tolerance $ε$. However, in many practical applications, constraints must be nearly satisfied with certainty, rendering such solutions potentially unsuitable due to the risk of substantial violations. To address this issue, we propose stochastic first-order methods for finding an $ε$-$surely\ feasible\ stochastic\ optimal$ ($ε$-SFSO) solution, where the constraint violation is deterministically bounded by $ε$ and the expected optimality gap is at most $ε$. Our methods apply an accelerated stochastic gradient (ASG) scheme or a modified variance-reduced ASG scheme $only\ once$ to a sequence of quadratic penalty subproblems with appropriately chosen penalty parameters. We establish first-order oracle complexity bounds for the proposed methods in computing an $ε$-SFSO solution. As a byproduct, we also derive first-order oracle complexity results for sample average approximation method in computing an $ε$-SFSO solution of the stochastic optimization problem using our proposed methods to solve the sample average problem.
Deciphering GunType Hierarchy through Acoustic Analysis of Gunshot Recordings
Shah, Ankit, Singh, Rita, Raj, Bhiksha, Hauptmann, Alexander
The escalating rates of gun-related violence and mass shootings represent a significant threat to public safety. Timely and accurate information for law enforcement agencies is crucial in mitigating these incidents. Current commercial gunshot detection systems, while effective, often come with prohibitive costs. This research explores a cost-effective alternative by leveraging acoustic analysis of gunshot recordings, potentially obtainable from ubiquitous devices like cell phones, to not only detect gunshots but also classify the type of firearm used. This paper details a study on deciphering gun type hierarchies using a curated dataset of 3459 recordings. We investigate the fundamental acoustic characteristics of gunshots, including muzzle blasts and shockwaves, which vary based on firearm type, ammunition, and shooting direction. We propose and evaluate machine learning frameworks, including Support Vector Machines (SVMs) as a baseline and a more advanced Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) architecture for joint gunshot detection and gun type classification. Results indicate that our deep learning approach achieves a mean average precision (mAP) of 0.58 on clean labeled data, outperforming the SVM baseline (mAP 0.39). Challenges related to data quality, environmental noise, and the generalization capabilities when using noisy web-sourced data (mAP 0.35) are also discussed. The long-term vision is to develop a highly accurate, real-time system deployable on common recording devices, significantly reducing detection costs and providing critical intelligence to first responders.
Vulnerability Disclosure through Adaptive Black-Box Adversarial Attacks on NIDS
Ennaji, Sabrine, Benkhelifa, Elhadj, Mancini, Luigi V.
--Adversarial attacks, wherein slight inputs are carefully crafted to mislead intelligent models, have attracted increasing attention. However, a critical gap persists between theoretical advancements and practical application, particularly in structured data like network traffic, where interdependent features complicate effective adversarial manipulations. Moreover, ambiguity in current approaches restricts reproducibility and limits progress in this field. Hence, existing defenses often fail to handle evolving adversarial attacks. This paper proposes a novel approach for black-box adversarial attacks, that addresses these limitations. Unlike prior work, which often assumes system access or relies on repeated probing, our method strictly respect black-box constraints, reducing interaction to avoid detection and better reflect real-world scenarios. We present an adaptive feature selection strategy using change-point detection and causality analysis to identify and target sensitive features to perturbations. This lightweight design ensures low computational cost and high deployability. Our comprehensive experiments show the attack's effectiveness in evading detection with minimal interaction, enhancing its adaptability and applicability in real-world scenarios. By advancing the understanding of adversarial attacks in network traffic, this work lays a foundation for developing robust defenses. N today's interconnected world, almost every aspect of our personal and professional lives is dependent on the digital infrastructure. Moreover, the growing volumes of sensitive data transmitted over networks present significant threats to privacy, security, and even national stability. Intrusion detection systems (IDS) play a vital role in safeguarding networks by continuously monitoring the network traffic for suspicious activities [1]. To fill this void, integrating machine learning (ML) with IDS has revolutionized network security, offering proactive detection by analyzing large traffic datasets, learning patterns, and identifying potential breaches [2]. Critically, the increasing adoption of ML-based IDS has exposed them to adversarial attacks, where slight perturbations could easily trick ML models into making wrong predictions [3]. This threat has been initially developed in the image classification context (i.e., unstructured data) without considering specific feature importance [4], [5].
Unidentified and Confounded? Understanding Two-Tower Models for Unbiased Learning to Rank
Hager, Philipp, Zoeter, Onno, de Rijke, Maarten
Additive two-tower models are popular learning-to-rank methods for handling biased user feedback in industry settings. Recent studies, however, report a concerning phenomenon: training two-tower models on clicks collected by well-performing production systems leads to decreased ranking performance. This paper investigates two recent explanations for this observation: confounding effects from logging policies and model identifiability issues. We theoretically analyze the identifiability conditions of two-tower models, showing that either document swaps across positions or overlapping feature distributions are required to recover model parameters from clicks. We also investigate the effect of logging policies on two-tower models, finding that they introduce no bias when models perfectly capture user behavior. However, logging policies can amplify biases when models imperfectly capture user behavior, particularly when prediction errors correlate with document placement across positions. We propose a sample weighting technique to mitigate these effects and provide actionable insights for researchers and practitioners using two-tower models.
Feature Hallucination for Self-supervised Action Recognition
Understanding human actions in videos requires more than raw pixel analysis; it relies on high-level semantic reasoning and effective integration of multimodal features. We propose a deep translational action recognition framework that enhances recognition accuracy by jointly predicting action concepts and auxiliary features from RGB video frames. At test time, hallucination streams infer missing cues, enriching feature representations without increasing computational overhead. To focus on action-relevant regions beyond raw pixels, we introduce two novel domain-specific descriptors. Object Detection Features (ODF) aggregate outputs from multiple object detectors to capture contextual cues, while Saliency Detection Features (SDF) highlight spatial and intensity patterns crucial for action recognition. Our framework seamlessly integrates these descriptors with auxiliary modalities such as optical flow, Improved Dense Trajectories, skeleton data, and audio cues. It remains compatible with state-of-the-art architectures, including I3D, AssembleNet, Video Transformer Network, FASTER, and recent models like VideoMAE V2 and InternVideo2. To handle uncertainty in auxiliary features, we incorporate aleatoric uncertainty modeling in the hallucination step and introduce a robust loss function to mitigate feature noise. Our multimodal self-supervised action recognition framework achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple benchmarks, including Kinetics-400, Kinetics-600, and Something-Something V2, demonstrating its effectiveness in capturing fine-grained action dynamics.
Beyond-Expert Performance with Limited Demonstrations: Efficient Imitation Learning with Double Exploration
Zhao, Heyang, Yu, Xingrui, Bossens, David M., Tsang, Ivor W., Gu, Quanquan
Imitation learning is a central problem in reinforcement learning where the goal is to learn a policy that mimics the expert's behavior. In practice, it is often challenging to learn the expert policy from a limited number of demonstrations accurately due to the complexity of the state space. Moreover, it is essential to explore the environment and collect data to achieve beyond-expert performance. To overcome these challenges, we propose a novel imitation learning algorithm called Imitation Learning with Double Exploration (ILDE), which implements exploration in two aspects: (1) optimistic policy optimization via an exploration bonus that rewards state-action pairs with high uncertainty to potentially improve the convergence to the expert policy, and (2) curiosity-driven exploration of the states that deviate from the demonstration trajectories to potentially yield beyond-expert performance. Empirically, we demonstrate that ILDE outperforms the state-of-the-art imitation learning algorithms in terms of sample efficiency and achieves beyond-expert performance on Atari and MuJoCo tasks with fewer demonstrations than in previous work. We also provide a theoretical justification of ILDE as an uncertainty-regularized policy optimization method with optimistic exploration, leading to a regret growing sublinearly in the number of episodes.