Transformer-based models have gained increasing attention in time series research, driving interest in Large Language Models (LLMs) and foundation models for time series analysis. As the field moves toward multi-modality, Large Vision Models (LVMs) are emerging as a promising direction. In the past, the effectiveness of Transformer and LLMs in time series has been debated. When it comes to LVMs, a similar question arises: are LVMs truely useful for time series analysis? To address it, we design and conduct the first principled study involving 4 LVMs, 8 imaging methods, 18 datasets and 26 baselines across both high-level (classification) and low-level (forecasting) tasks, with extensive ablation analysis. Our findings indicate LVMs are indeed useful for time series classification but face challenges in forecasting. Although effective, the contemporary best LVM forecasters are limited to specific types of LVMs and imaging methods, exhibit a bias toward forecasting periods, and have limited ability to utilize long look-back windows. We hope our findings could serve as a cornerstone for future research on LVM- and multimodal-based solutions to different time series tasks.

We propose Path Signatures Logistic Regression (PSLR), a semi-parametric framework for classifying vector-valued functional data with scalar covariates. Classical functional logistic regression models rely on linear assumptions and fixed basis expansions, which limit flexibility and degrade performance under irregular sampling. PSLR overcomes these issues by leveraging truncated path signatures to construct a finite-dimensional, basis-free representation that captures nonlinear and cross-channel dependencies. By embedding trajectories as time-augmented paths, PSLR extracts stable, geometry-aware features that are robust to sampling irregularity without requiring a common time grid, while still preserving subject-specific timing patterns. We establish theoretical guarantees for the existence and consistent estimation of the optimal truncation order, along with non-asymptotic risk bounds. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that PSLR outperforms traditional functional classifiers in accuracy, robustness, and interpretability, particularly under non-uniform sampling schemes. Our results highlight the practical and theoretical benefits of integrating rough path theory into modern functional data analysis.

We describe and analyze a computionally efficient refitting procedure for computing high-probability upper bounds on the instance-wise mean-squared prediction error of penalized nonparametric estimates based on least-squares minimization. Requiring only a single dataset and black box access to the prediction method, it consists of three steps: computing suitable residuals, symmetrizing and scaling them with a pre-factor $ρ$, and using them to define and solve a modified prediction problem recentered at the current estimate. We refer to it as wild refitting, since it uses Rademacher residual symmetrization as in a wild bootstrap variant. Under relatively mild conditions allowing for noise heterogeneity, we establish a high probability guarantee on its performance, showing that the wild refit with a suitably chosen wild noise scale $ρ$ gives an upper bound on prediction error. This theoretical analysis provides guidance into the design of such procedures, including how the residuals should be formed, the amount of noise rescaling in the wild sub-problem needed for upper bounds, and the local stability properties of the block-box procedure. We illustrate the applicability of this procedure to various problems, including non-rigid structure-from-motion recovery with structured matrix penalties; plug-and-play image restoration with deep neural network priors; and randomized sketching with kernel methods.

The fine-tuning of pretrained large language models (LLMs) has demonstrated state-of-the-art performance across a range of downstream applications. However, two main challenges hinder the wide adoption of these models: the substantial memory requirements of gradient-based optimizers used for fine-tuning and the critical need to protect the privacy of domain-specific fine-tuning data. As fine-tuning LLMs grows increasingly memory-intensive, a range of strategies has emerged to address this issue. In particular, zeroth-order (ZO) optimization methods recently have gained traction due to their memory efficiency, as they do not require explicit gradient computations. Instead, the zeroth-order gradients can be computed using forward step only, significantly reducing memory use compared to gradient computation. In a pioneering approach, Malladi et al. (2023) introduced a memory-efficient technique for fine-tuning LLMs using two-point Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation (SPSA) estimators (Spall, 1992), enabling large model fine-tuning on memory-limited devices. Since then, zeroth-order methods have gained popularity in dealing with large machine learning models due to their memory efficiency and favorable upper bounds on gap from optimality under certain conditions on the Hessian of the objective function (Zhang et al., 2024b,a; Guo et al., 2024). Another major concern in training LLMs is privacy . As large parameterized models are increasingly used in sensitive data applications, these models must protect sensitive information, especially given privacy regulations like the E.U.

Invariant prediction [Peters et al., 2016] analyzes feature/outcome data from multiple environments to identify invariant features - those with a stable predictive relationship to the outcome. Such features support generalization to new environments and help reveal causal mechanisms. Previous methods have primarily tackled this problem through hypothesis testing or regularized optimization. Here we develop Bayesian Invariant Prediction (BIP), a probabilistic model for invariant prediction. BIP encodes the indices of invariant features as a latent variable and recover them by posterior inference. Under the assumptions of Peters et al. [2016], the BIP posterior targets the true invariant features. We prove that the posterior is consistent and that greater environment heterogeneity leads to faster posterior contraction. To handle many features, we design an efficient variational approximation called VI-BIP. In simulations and real data, we find that BIP and VI-BIP are more accurate and scalable than existing methods for invariant prediction.

Differentially Private Stochastic Gradient Descent (DP-SGD) has been widely used for solving optimization problems with privacy guarantees in machine learning and statistics. Despite this, a systematic non-asymptotic convergence analysis for DP-SGD, particularly in the context of online problems and local differential privacy (LDP) models, remains largely elusive. Existing non-asymptotic analyses have focused on non-private optimization methods, and hence are not applicable to privacy-preserving optimization problems. This work initiates the analysis to bridge this gap and opens the door to non-asymptotic convergence analysis of private optimization problems. A general framework is investigated for the online LDP model in stochastic optimization problems. We assume that sensitive information from individuals is collected sequentially and aim to estimate, in real-time, a static parameter that pertains to the population of interest. Most importantly, we conduct a comprehensive non-asymptotic convergence analysis of the proposed estimators in finite-sample situations, which gives their users practical guidelines regarding the effect of various hyperparameters, such as step size, parameter dimensions, and privacy budgets, on convergence rates. Our proposed estimators are validated in the theoretical and practical realms by rigorous mathematical derivations and carefully constructed numerical experiments.

Off-Policy Evaluation (OPE) aims to estimate the value of a target policy using offline data collected from potentially different policies. In real-world applications, however, logged data often suffers from missingness. While OPE has been extensively studied in the literature, a theoretical understanding of how missing data affects OPE results remains unclear. In this paper, we investigate OPE in the presence of monotone missingness and theoretically demonstrate that the value estimates remain unbiased under ignorable missingness but can be biased under nonignorable (informative) missingness. To retain the consistency of value estimation, we propose an inverse probability weighted value estimator and conduct statistical inference to quantify the uncertainty of the estimates. Through a series of numerical experiments, we empirically demonstrate that our proposed estimator yields a more reliable value inference under missing data.

Differential privacy has been proven effective for stochastic gradient descent; however, existing methods often suffer from performance degradation in high-dimensional settings, as the scale of injected noise increases with dimensionality. To tackle this challenge, we propose AdaDPIGU--a new differentially private SGD framework with importance-based gradient updates tailored for deep neural networks. In the pretraining stage, we apply a differentially private Gaussian mechanism to estimate the importance of each parameter while preserving privacy. During the gradient update phase, we prune low-importance coordinates and introduce a coordinate-wise adaptive clipping mechanism, enabling sparse and noise-efficient gradient updates. Theoretically, we prove that AdaDPIGU satisfies $(\varepsilon, δ)$-differential privacy and retains convergence guarantees. Extensive experiments on standard benchmarks validate the effectiveness of AdaDPIGU. All results are reported under a fixed retention ratio of 60%. On MNIST, our method achieves a test accuracy of 99.12% under a privacy budget of $ε= 8$, nearly matching the non-private model. Remarkably, on CIFAR-10, it attains 73.21% accuracy at $ε= 4$, outperforming the non-private baseline of 71.12%, demonstrating that adaptive sparsification can enhance both privacy and utility.

stCEG is an R package which allows a user to fully specify a Chain Event Graph (CEG) model from data and to produce interactive plots. It includes functions for the user to visualise spatial variables they wish to include in the model. There is also a web-based graphical user interface (GUI) provided, increasing ease of use for those without knowledge of R. We demonstrate stCEG using a dataset of homicides in London, which is included in the package. stCEG is the first software package for CEGs that allows for full model customisation.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used as surrogate models for complicated functions in scientific and engineering applications. In many cases, prior knowledge about the function to be approximated, such as monotonicity, is available and can be leveraged to improve model fidelity. Incorporating such constraints into GP models enhances predictive accuracy and reduces uncertainty, but remains a computationally challenging task for high-dimensional problems. In this work, we present a novel virtual point-based framework for building constrained GP models under monotonicity constraints, based on regularized linear randomize-then-optimize (RLRTO), which enables efficient sampling from a constrained posterior distribution by means of solving randomized optimization problems. We also enhance two existing virtual point-based approaches by replacing Gibbs sampling with the No U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) for improved efficiency. A Python implementation of these methods is provided and can be easily applied to a wide range of problems. This implementation is then used to validate the approaches on approximating a range of synthetic functions, demonstrating comparable predictive performance between all considered methods and significant improvements in computational efficiency with the two NUTS methods and especially with the RLRTO method. The framework is further applied to construct surrogate models for systems of differential equations.