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 Statistical Learning


Interactive Hybrid Rice Breeding with Parametric Dual Projection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Hybrid rice breeding crossbreeds different rice lines and cultivates the resulting hybrids in fields to select those with desirable agronomic traits, such as higher yields. Recently, genomic selection has emerged as an efficient way for hybrid rice breeding. It predicts the traits of hybrids based on their genes, which helps exclude many undesired hybrids, largely reducing the workload of field cultivation. However, due to the limited accuracy of genomic prediction models, breeders still need to combine their experience with the models to identify regulatory genes that control traits and select hybrids, which remains a time-consuming process. To ease this process, in this paper, we proposed a visual analysis method to facilitate interactive hybrid rice breeding. Regulatory gene identification and hybrid selection naturally ensemble a dual-analysis task. Therefore, we developed a parametric dual projection method with theoretical guarantees to facilitate interactive dual analysis. Based on this dual projection method, we further developed a gene visualization and a hybrid visualization to verify the identified regulatory genes and hybrids. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated through the quantitative evaluation of the parametric dual projection method, identified regulatory genes and desired hybrids in the case study, and positive feedback from breeders.


MNIST-Gen: A Modular MNIST-Style Dataset Generation Using Hierarchical Semantics, Reinforcement Learning, and Category Theory

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Neural networks are often benchmarked using standard datasets such as MNIST, FashionMNIST, or other variants of MNIST, which, while accessible, are limited to generic classes such as digits or clothing items. For researchers working on domain-specific tasks, such as classifying trees, food items, or other real-world objects, these data sets are insufficient and irrelevant. Additionally, creating and publishing a custom dataset can be time consuming, legally constrained, or beyond the scope of individual projects. We present MNIST-Gen, an automated, modular, and adaptive framework for generating MNIST-style image datasets tailored to user-specified categories using hierarchical semantic categorization. The system combines CLIP-based semantic understanding with reinforcement learning and human feedback to achieve intelligent categorization with minimal manual intervention. Our hierarchical approach supports complex category structures with semantic characteristics, enabling fine-grained subcategorization and multiple processing modes: individual review for maximum control, smart batch processing for large datasets, and fast batch processing for rapid creation. Inspired by category theory, MNIST-Gen models each data transformation stage as a composable morphism, enhancing clarity, modularity, and extensibility. As proof of concept, we generate and benchmark two novel datasets-\textit{Tree-MNIST} and \textit{Food-MNIST}-demonstrating MNIST-Gen's utility for producing task-specific evaluation data while achieving 85\% automatic categorization accuracy and 80\% time savings compared to manual approaches.


Survey of Swarm Intelligence Approaches to Search Documents Based On Semantic Similarity

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Swarm Intelligence (SI) is gaining a lot of popularity in artificial intelligence, where the natural behavior of animals and insects is observed and translated into computer algorithms called swarm computing to solve real-world problems. Due to their effectiveness, they are applied in solving various computer optimization problems. This survey will review all the latest developments in Searching for documents based on semantic similarity using Swarm Intelligence algorithms and recommend future research directions.


Inference on Optimal Policy Values and Other Irregular Functionals via Smoothing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Constructing confidence intervals for the value of an optimal treatment policy is an important problem in causal inference. Insight into the optimal policy value can guide the development of reward-maximizing, individualized treatment regimes. However, because the functional that defines the optimal value is non-differentiable, standard semi-parametric approaches for performing inference fail to be directly applicable. Existing approaches for handling this non-differentiability fall roughly into two camps. In one camp are estimators based on constructing smooth approximations of the optimal value. These approaches are computationally lightweight, but typically place unrealistic parametric assumptions on outcome regressions. In another camp are approaches that directly de-bias the non-smooth objective. These approaches don't place parametric assumptions on nuisance functions, but they either require the computation of intractably-many nuisance estimates, assume unrealistic $L^\infty$ nuisance convergence rates, or make strong margin assumptions that prohibit non-response to a treatment. In this paper, we revisit the problem of constructing smooth approximations of non-differentiable functionals. By carefully controlling first-order bias and second-order remainders, we show that a softmax smoothing-based estimator can be used to estimate parameters that are specified as a maximum of scores involving nuisance components. In particular, this includes the value of the optimal treatment policy as a special case. Our estimator obtains $\sqrt{n}$ convergence rates, avoids parametric restrictions/unrealistic margin assumptions, and is often statistically efficient.


Predicting Delayed Trajectories Using Network Features: A Study on the Dutch Railway Network

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The Dutch railway network is one of the busiest in the world, with delays being a prominent concern for the principal passenger railway operator NS. This research addresses a gap in delay prediction studies within the Dutch railway network by employing an XGBoost Classifier with a focus on topological features. Current research predominantly emphasizes short-term predictions and neglects the broader network-wide patterns essential for mitigating ripple effects. This research implements and improves an existing methodology, originally designed to forecast the evolution of the fast-changing US air network, to predict delays in the Dutch Railways. By integrating Node Centrality Measures and comparing multiple classifiers like RandomForest, DecisionTree, GradientBoosting, AdaBoost, and LogisticRegression, the goal is to predict delayed trajectories. However, the results reveal limited performance, especially in non-simultaneous testing scenarios, suggesting the necessity for more context-specific adaptations. Regardless, this research contributes to the understanding of transportation network evaluation and proposes future directions for developing more robust predictive models for delays.


Canonical Bayesian Linear System Identification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Standard Bayesian approaches for linear time-invariant (LTI) system identification are hindered by parameter non-identifiability; the resulting complex, multi-modal posteriors make inference inefficient and impractical. We solve this problem by embedding canonical forms of LTI systems within the Bayesian framework. We rigorously establish that inference in these minimal parameterizations fully captures all invariant system dynamics (e.g., transfer functions, eigenvalues, predictive distributions of system outputs) while resolving identifiability. This approach unlocks the use of meaningful, structure-aware priors (e.g., enforcing stability via eigenvalues) and ensures conditions for a Bernstein--von Mises theorem -- a link between Bayesian and frequentist large-sample asymptotics that is broken in standard forms. Extensive simulations with modern MCMC methods highlight advantages over standard parameterizations: canonical forms achieve higher computational efficiency, generate interpretable and well-behaved posteriors, and provide robust uncertainty estimates, particularly from limited data.


Universal rates of ERM for agnostic learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The universal learning framework has been developed to obtain guarantees on the learning rates that hold for any fixed distribution, which can be much faster than the ones uniformly hold over all the distributions. Given that the Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) principle being fundamental in the PAC theory and ubiquitous in practical machine learning, the recent work of arXiv:2412.02810 studied the universal rates of ERM for binary classification under the realizable setting. However, the assumption of realizability is too restrictive to hold in practice. Indeed, the majority of the literature on universal learning has focused on the realizable case, leaving the non-realizable case barely explored. In this paper, we consider the problem of universal learning by ERM for binary classification under the agnostic setting, where the ''learning curve" reflects the decay of the excess risk as the sample size increases. We explore the possibilities of agnostic universal rates and reveal a compact trichotomy: there are three possible agnostic universal rates of ERM, being either $e^{-n}$, $o(n^{-1/2})$, or arbitrarily slow. We provide a complete characterization of which concept classes fall into each of these categories. Moreover, we also establish complete characterizations for the target-dependent universal rates as well as the Bayes-dependent universal rates.


On Equivariant Model Selection through the Lens of Uncertainty

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Equivariant models leverage prior knowledge on symmetries to improve predictive performance, but misspecified architectural constraints can harm it instead. While work has explored learning or relaxing constraints, selecting among pretrained models with varying symmetry biases remains challenging. We examine this model selection task from an uncertainty-aware perspective, comparing frequentist (via Conformal Prediction), Bayesian (via the marginal likelihood), and calibration-based measures to naive error-based evaluation. We find that uncertainty metrics generally align with predictive performance, but Bayesian model evidence does so inconsistently. We attribute this to a mismatch in Bayesian and geometric notions of model complexity for the employed last-layer Laplace approximation, and discuss possible remedies. Our findings point towards the potential of uncertainty in guiding symmetry-aware model selection.


Learning to Quantize and Precode in Massive MIMO Systems for Energy Reduction: a Graph Neural Network Approach

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Massive MIMO systems are moving toward increased numbers of radio frequency chains, higher carrier frequencies and larger bandwidths. As such, digital-to-analog converters (DACs) are becoming a bottleneck in terms of hardware complexity and power consumption. In this work, non-linear precoding for coarsely quantized downlink massive MIMO is studied. Given the NP-hard nature of this problem, a graph neural network (GNN) is proposed that directly outputs the precoded quantized vector based on the channel matrix and the intended transmit symbols. The model is trained in a self-supervised manner, by directly maximizing the achievable rate. To overcome the non-differentiability of the objective function, introduced due to the non-differentiable DAC functions, a straight-through Gumbel-softmax estimation of the gradient is proposed. The proposed method achieves a significant increase in achievable sum rate under coarse quantization. For instance, in the single-user case, the proposed method can achieve the same sum rate as maximum ratio transmission (MRT) by using one-bit DAC's as compared to 3 bits for MRT. This reduces the DAC's power consumption by a factor 4-7 and 3 for baseband and RF DACs respectively. This, however, comes at the cost of increased digital signal processing power consumption. When accounting for this, the reduction in overall power consumption holds for a system bandwidth up to 3.5 MHz for baseband DACs, while the RF DACs can maintain a power reduction of 2.9 for higher bandwidths. Notably, indirect effects, which further reduce the power consumption, such as a reduced fronthaul consumption and reduction in other components, are not considered in this analysis.


Urban delineation through the lens of commute networks: Leveraging graph embeddings to distinguish socioeconomic groups in cities

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Delineating areas within metropolitan regions stands as an important focus among urban researchers, shedding light on the urban perimeters shaped by evolving population dynamics. Applications to urban science are numerous, from facilitating comparisons between delineated districts and administrative divisions to informing policymakers of the shifting economic and labor landscapes. In this study, we propose using commute networks sourced from the census for the purpose of urban delineation, by modeling them with a Graph Neural Network (GNN) architecture. We derive low-dimensional representations of granular urban areas (nodes) using GNNs. Subsequently, nodes' embeddings are clustered to identify spatially cohesive communities in urban areas. Our experiments across the U.S. demonstrate the effectiveness of network embeddings in capturing significant socioeconomic disparities between communities in various cities, particularly in factors such as median household income. The role of census mobility data in regional delineation is also noted, and we establish the utility of GNNs in urban community detection, as a powerful alternative to existing methods in this domain. The results offer insights into the wider effects of commute networks and their use in building meaningful representations of urban regions.