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 Statistical Learning


SurgeryLSTM: A Time-Aware Neural Model for Accurate and Explainable Length of Stay Prediction After Spine Surgery

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Objective: To develop and evaluate machine learning (ML) models for predicting length of stay (LOS) in elective spine surgery, with a focus on the benefits of temporal modeling and model interpretability. Materials and Methods: We compared traditional ML models (e.g., linear regression, random forest, support vector machine (SVM), and XGBoost) with our developed model, SurgeryLSTM, a masked bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) with an attention, using structured perioperative electronic health records (EHR) data. Performance was evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2), and key predictors were identified using explainable AI. Results: SurgeryLSTM achieved the highest predictive accuracy (R2=0.86), outperforming XGBoost (R2 = 0.85) and baseline models. The attention mechanism improved interpretability by dynamically identifying influential temporal segments within preoperative clinical sequences, allowing clinicians to trace which events or features most contributed to each LOS prediction. Key predictors of LOS included bone disorder, chronic kidney disease, and lumbar fusion identified as the most impactful predictors of LOS. Discussion: Temporal modeling with attention mechanisms significantly improves LOS prediction by capturing the sequential nature of patient data. Unlike static models, SurgeryLSTM provides both higher accuracy and greater interpretability, which are critical for clinical adoption. These results highlight the potential of integrating attention-based temporal models into hospital planning workflows. Conclusion: SurgeryLSTM presents an effective and interpretable AI solution for LOS prediction in elective spine surgery. Our findings support the integration of temporal, explainable ML approaches into clinical decision support systems to enhance discharge readiness and individualized patient care.


Some remarks on gradient dominance and LQR policy optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Solutions of optimization problems, including policy optimization in reinforcement learning, typically rely upon some variant of gradient descent. There has been much recent work in the machine learning, control, and optimization communities applying the Polyak-ลojasiewicz Inequality (PLI) to such problems in order to establish an exponential rate of convergence (a.k.a. ``linear convergence'' in the local-iteration language of numerical analysis) of loss functions to their minima under the gradient flow. Often, as is the case of policy iteration for the continuous-time LQR problem, this rate vanishes for large initial conditions, resulting in a mixed globally linear / locally exponential behavior. This is in sharp contrast with the discrete-time LQR problem, where there is global exponential convergence. That gap between CT and DT behaviors motivates the search for various generalized PLI-like conditions, and this talk will address that topic. Moreover, these generalizations are key to understanding the transient and asymptotic effects of errors in the estimation of the gradient, errors which might arise from adversarial attacks, wrong evaluation by an oracle, early stopping of a simulation, inaccurate and very approximate digital twins, stochastic computations (algorithm ``reproducibility''), or learning by sampling from limited data. We describe an ``input to state stability'' (ISS) analysis of this issue. The second part discusses convergence and PLI-like properties of ``linear feedforward neural networks'' in feedback control. Much of the work described here was done in collaboration with Arthur Castello B. de Oliveira, Leilei Cui, Zhong-Ping Jiang, and Milad Siami.


Simplifying Graph Kernels for Efficient

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While kernel methods and Graph Neural Networks offer complementary strengths, integrating the two has posed challenges in efficiency and scalability. The Graph Neural Tangent Kernel provides a theoretical bridge by interpreting GNNs through the lens of neural tangent kernels. However, its reliance on deep, stacked layers introduces repeated computations that hinder performance. In this work, we introduce a new perspective by designing the simplified graph kernel, which replaces deep layer stacking with a streamlined $K$-step message aggregation process. This formulation avoids iterative layer-wise propagation altogether, leading to a more concise and computationally efficient framework without sacrificing the expressive power needed for graph tasks. Beyond this simplification, we propose another Simplified Graph Kernel, which draws from Gaussian Process theory to model infinite-width GNNs. Rather than simulating network depth, this kernel analytically computes kernel values based on the statistical behavior of nonlinear activations in the infinite limit. This eliminates the need for explicit architecture simulation, further reducing complexity. Our experiments on standard graph and node classification benchmarks show that our methods achieve competitive accuracy while reducing runtime. This makes them practical alternatives for learning on graphs at scale. Full implementation and reproducibility materials are provided at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/SGNK-1CE4/.


Machine Learning-Driven Compensation for Non-Ideal Channels in AWG-Based FBG Interrogator

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present an experimental study of a fiber Bragg grating (FBG) interrogator based on a silicon oxynitride (SiON) photonic integrated arrayed waveguide grating (AWG). While AWG-based interrogators are compact and scalable, their practical performance is limited by non-ideal spectral responses. To address this, two calibration strategies within a 2.4 nm spectral region were compared: (1) a segmented analytical model based on a sigmoid fitting function, and (2) a machine learning (ML)-based regression model. The analytical method achieves a root mean square error (RMSE) of 7.11 pm within the calibrated range, while the ML approach based on exponential regression achieves 3.17 pm. Moreover, the ML model demonstrates generalization across an extended 2.9 nm wavelength span, maintaining sub-5 pm accuracy without re-fitting. Residual and error distribution analyses further illustrate the trade-offs between the two approaches. ML-based calibration provides a robust, data-driven alternative to analytical methods, delivering enhanced accuracy for non-ideal channel responses, reduced manual calibration effort, and improved scalability across diverse FBG sensor configurations.


NOCTA: Non-Greedy Objective Cost-Tradeoff Acquisition for Longitudinal Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In many critical applications, resource constraints limit the amount of information that can be gathered to make predictions. For example, in healthcare, patient data often spans diverse features ranging from lab tests to imaging studies. Each feature may carry different information and must be acquired at a respective cost of time, money, or risk to the patient. Moreover, temporal prediction tasks, where both instance features and labels evolve over time, introduce additional complexity in deciding when or what information is important. In this work, we propose NOCTA, a Non-Greedy Objective Cost-Tradeoff Acquisition method that sequentially acquires the most informative features at inference time while accounting for both temporal dynamics and acquisition cost. We first introduce a cohesive estimation target for our NOCTA setting, and then develop two complementary estimators: 1) a non-parametric method based on nearest neighbors to guide the acquisition (NOCTA-NP), and 2) a parametric method that directly predicts the utility of potential acquisitions (NOCTA-P). Experiments on synthetic and real-world medical datasets demonstrate that both NOCTA variants outperform existing baselines.


Trustworthy Tree-based Machine Learning by $MoS_2$ Flash-based Analog CAM with Inherent Soft Boundaries

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence has raised concerns regarding its trustworthiness, especially in terms of interpretability and robustness. Tree-based models like Random Forest and XGBoost excel in interpretability and accuracy for tabular data, but scaling them remains computationally expensive due to poor data locality and high data dependence. Previous efforts to accelerate these models with analog content addressable memory (CAM) have struggled, due to the fact that the difficult-to-implement sharp decision boundaries are highly susceptible to device variations, which leads to poor hardware performance and vulnerability to adversarial attacks. This work presents a novel hardware-software co-design approach using $MoS_2$ Flash-based analog CAM with inherent soft boundaries, enabling efficient inference with soft tree-based models. Our soft tree model inference experiments on $MoS_2$ analog CAM arrays show this method achieves exceptional robustness against device variation and adversarial attacks while achieving state-of-the-art accuracy. Specifically, our fabricated analog CAM arrays achieve $96\%$ accuracy on Wisconsin Diagnostic Breast Cancer (WDBC) database, while maintaining decision explainability. Our experimentally calibrated model validated only a $0.6\%$ accuracy drop on the MNIST dataset under $10\%$ device threshold variation, compared to a $45.3\%$ drop for traditional decision trees. This work paves the way for specialized hardware that enhances AI's trustworthiness and efficiency.


Probing for Arithmetic Errors in Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We investigate whether internal activations in language models can be used to detect arithmetic errors. Starting with a controlled setting of 3-digit addition, we show that simple probes can accurately decode both the model's predicted output and the correct answer from hidden states, regardless of whether the model's output is correct. Building on this, we train lightweight error detectors that predict model correctness with over 90% accuracy. We then extend our analysis to structured chain-of-thought traces on addition-only GSM8K problems and find that probes trained on simple arithmetic generalize well to this more complex setting, revealing consistent internal representations. Finally, we demonstrate that these probes can guide selective re-prompting of erroneous reasoning steps, improving task accuracy with minimal disruption to correct outputs. Our findings suggest that arithmetic errors can be anticipated from internal activations alone, and that simple probes offer a viable path toward lightweight model self-correction.


Cluster Contrast for Unsupervised Visual Representation Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce Cluster Contrast (CueCo), a novel approach to unsupervised visual representation learning that effectively combines the strengths of contrastive learning and clustering methods. Inspired by recent advancements, CueCo is designed to simultaneously scatter and align feature representations within the feature space. This method utilizes two neural networks, a query and a key, where the key network is updated through a slow-moving average of the query outputs. CueCo employs a contrastive loss to push dissimilar features apart, enhancing inter-class separation, and a clustering objective to pull together features of the same cluster, promoting intra-class compactness. Our method achieves 91.40% top-1 classification accuracy on CIFAR-10, 68.56% on CIFAR-100, and 78.65% on ImageNet-100 using linear evaluation with a ResNet-18 backbone. By integrating contrastive learning with clustering, CueCo sets a new direction for advancing unsupervised visual representation learning.


Revealing the Ancient Beauty: Digital Reconstruction of Temple Tiles using Computer Vision

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modern digitised approaches have dramatically changed the preservation and restoration of cultural treasures, integrating computer scientists into multidisciplinary projects with ease. Machine learning, deep learning, and computer vision techniques have revolutionised developing sectors like 3D reconstruction, picture inpainting,IoT-based methods, genetic algorithms, and image processing with the integration of computer scientists into multidisciplinary initiatives. We suggest three cutting-edge techniques in recognition of the special qualities of Indian monuments, which are famous for their architectural skill and aesthetic appeal. First is the Fractal Convolution methodology, a segmentation method based on image processing that successfully reveals subtle architectural patterns within these irreplaceable cultural buildings. The second is a revolutionary Self-Sensitive Tile Filling (SSTF) method created especially for West Bengal's mesmerising Bankura Terracotta Temples with a brand-new data augmentation method called MosaicSlice on the third. Furthermore, we delve deeper into the Super Resolution strategy to upscale the images without losing significant amount of quality. Our methods allow for the development of seamless region-filling and highly detailed tiles while maintaining authenticity using a novel data augmentation strategy within affordable costs introducing automation. By providing effective solutions that preserve the delicate balance between tradition and innovation, this study improves the subject and eventually ensures unrivalled efficiency and aesthetic excellence in cultural heritage protection. The suggested approaches advance the field into an era of unmatched efficiency and aesthetic quality while carefully upholding the delicate equilibrium between tradition and innovation.


Non-Adaptive Adversarial Face Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Adversarial attacks on face recognition systems (FRSs) pose serious security and privacy threats, especially when these systems are used for identity verification. In this paper, we propose a novel method for generating adversarial faces-synthetic facial images that are visually distinct yet recognized as a target identity by the FRS. Unlike iterative optimization-based approaches (e.g., gradient descent or other iterative solvers), our method leverages the structural characteristics of the FRS feature space. We figure out that individuals sharing the same attribute (e.g., gender or race) form an attributed subsphere. By utilizing such subspheres, our method achieves both non-adaptiveness and a remarkably small number of queries. This eliminates the need for relying on transferability and open-source surrogate models, which have been a typical strategy when repeated adaptive queries to commercial FRSs are impossible. Despite requiring only a single non-adaptive query consisting of 100 face images, our method achieves a high success rate of over 93% against AWS's CompareFaces API at its default threshold. Furthermore, unlike many existing attacks that perturb a given image, our method can deliberately produce adversarial faces that impersonate the target identity while exhibiting high-level attributes chosen by the adversary.