Statistical Learning
Step-DAD: Semi-Amortized Policy-Based Bayesian Experimental Design
Hedman, Marcel, Ivanova, Desi R., Guan, Cong, Rainforth, Tom
We develop a semi-amortized, policy-based, approach to Bayesian experimental design (BED) called Stepwise Deep Adaptive Design (Step-DAD). Like existing, fully amortized, policy-based BED approaches, Step-DAD trains a design policy upfront before the experiment. However, rather than keeping this policy fixed, Step-DAD periodically updates it as data is gathered, refining it to the particular experimental instance. This test-time adaptation improves both the flexibility and the robustness of the design strategy compared with existing approaches. Empirically, Step-DAD consistently demonstrates superior decision-making and robustness compared with current state-of-the-art BED methods.
Honesty in Causal Forests: When It Helps and When It Hurts
Hou, Yanfang, Fernรกndez-Lorรญa, Carlos
Causal forests have become a popular tool for estimating how treatment effects vary across individuals (Wager and Athey, 2018). They are used in a growing number of domains--including marketing, operations, economics, and public policy--to personalize interventions and inform targeting strategies. Since 2019, dozens of papers in INFORMS journals alone have applied causal forests to experimental or observational data (see Appendix C), often with the goal of estimating individual-level treatment effects. The method builds on a familiar idea: instead of estimating a single average effect for the whole population, we split the population into subgroups based on observed features and estimate effects within each group. This is conceptually similar to how random forests estimate outcomes, except now the goal is to estimate causal effects. But there is a crucial modeling difference: unlike random forests, which typically use the full training data for both splitting and estimation, causal forests often divide the training data in two--using one part to decide how to form the subgroups, and the other to estimate effects within them. This practice, known as honest estimation, is meant to prevent overfitting and selection bias (Athey and Imbens, 2016). It is the default in widely used software packages such as grf (Athey et al., 2019) and EconML (Battocchi et al., 2019), and is commonly recommended in applied research. But is this default always a good idea? 1
Dual-Center Graph Clustering with Neighbor Distribution
Cheng, Enhao, Zhang, Shoujia, Yin, Jianhua, Jin, Li, Nie, Liqiang
Graph clustering is crucial for unraveling intricate data structures, yet it presents significant challenges due to its unsupervised nature. Recently, goal-directed clustering techniques have yielded impressive results, with contrastive learning methods leveraging pseudo-label garnering considerable attention. Nonetheless, pseudo-label as a supervision signal is unreliable and existing goal-directed approaches utilize only features to construct a single-target distribution for single-center optimization, which lead to incomplete and less dependable guidance. In our work, we propose a novel Dual-Center Graph Clustering (DCGC) approach based on neighbor distribution properties, which includes representation learning with neighbor distribution and dual-center optimization. Specifically, we utilize neighbor distribution as a supervision signal to mine hard negative samples in contrastive learning, which is reliable and enhances the effectiveness of representation learning. Furthermore, neighbor distribution center is introduced alongside feature center to jointly construct a dual-target distribution for dual-center optimization. Extensive experiments and analysis demonstrate superior performance and effectiveness of our proposed method.
Kolmogorov Arnold Networks (KANs) for Imbalanced Data -- An Empirical Perspective
Kolmogorov Arnold Networks (KANs) are recent architectural advancement in neural computation that offer a mathematically grounded alternative to standard neural networks. This study presents an empirical evaluation of KANs in context of class imbalanced classification, using ten benchmark datasets. We observe that KANs can inherently perform well on raw imbalanced data more effectively than Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs) without any resampling strategy. However, conventional imbalance strategies fundamentally conflict with KANs mathematical structure as resampling and focal loss implementations significantly degrade KANs performance, while marginally benefiting MLPs. Crucially, KANs suffer from prohibitive computational costs without proportional performance gains. Statistical validation confirms that MLPs with imbalance techniques achieve equivalence with KANs (|d| < 0.08 across metrics) at minimal resource costs. These findings reveal that KANs represent a specialized solution for raw imbalanced data where resources permit. But their severe performance-resource tradeoffs and incompatibility with standard resampling techniques currently limits practical deployment. We identify critical research priorities as developing KAN specific architectural modifications for imbalance learning, optimizing computational efficiency, and theoretical reconciling their conflict with data augmentation. This work establishes foundational insights for next generation KAN architectures in imbalanced classification scenarios.
UGPL: Uncertainty-Guided Progressive Learning for Evidence-Based Classification in Computed Tomography
Venkatraman, Shravan, S, Pavan Kumar, Madavan, Rakesh Raj, S, Chandrakala
Accurate classification of computed tomography (CT) images is essential for diagnosis and treatment planning, but existing methods often struggle with the subtle and spatially diverse nature of pathological features. Current approaches typically process images uniformly, limiting their ability to detect localized abnormalities that require focused analysis. We introduce UGPL, an uncertainty-guided progressive learning framework that performs a global-to-local analysis by first identifying regions of diagnostic ambiguity and then conducting detailed examination of these critical areas. Our approach employs evidential deep learning to quantify predictive uncertainty, guiding the extraction of informative patches through a non-maximum suppression mechanism that maintains spatial diversity. This progressive refinement strategy, combined with an adaptive fusion mechanism, enables UGPL to integrate both contextual information and fine-grained details. Experiments across three CT datasets demonstrate that UGPL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving improvements of 3.29%, 2.46%, and 8.08% in accuracy for kidney abnormality, lung cancer, and COVID-19 detection, respectively. Our analysis shows that the uncertainty-guided component provides substantial benefits, with performance dramatically increasing when the full progressive learning pipeline is implemented. Our code is available at: https://github.com/shravan-18/UGPL
CPC-CMS: Cognitive Pairwise Comparison Classification Model Selection Framework for Document-level Sentiment Analysis
Li, Jianfei, Yuen, Kevin Kam Fung
This study proposes the Cognitive Pairwise Comparison Classification Model Selection (CPC-CMS) framework for document-level sentiment analysis. The CPC, based on expert knowledge judgment, is used to calculate the weights of evaluation criteria, including accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, specificity, Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC), Cohen's Kappa (Kappa), and efficiency. Naive Bayes, Linear Support Vector Classification (LSVC), Random Forest, Logistic Regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and A Lite Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (ALBERT) are chosen as classification baseline models. A weighted decision matrix consisting of classification evaluation scores with respect to criteria weights, is formed to select the best classification model for a classification problem. Three open datasets of social media are used to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed CPC-CMS. Based on our simulation, for evaluation results excluding the time factor, ALBERT is the best for the three datasets; if time consumption is included, no single model always performs better than the other models. The CPC-CMS can be applied to the other classification applications in different areas.
A Survey of Dimension Estimation Methods
Binnie, James A. D., Dลotko, Paweล, Harvey, John, Malinowski, Jakub, Yim, Ka Man
It is a standard assumption that datasets in high dimension have an internal structure which means that they in fact lie on, or near, subsets of a lower dimension. In many instances it is important to understand the real dimension of the data, hence the complexity of the dataset at hand. A great variety of dimension estimators have been developed to find the intrinsic dimension of the data but there is little guidance on how to reliably use these estimators. This survey reviews a wide range of dimension estimation methods, categorising them by the geometric information they exploit: tangential estimators which detect a local affine structure; parametric estimators which rely on dimension-dependent probability distributions; and estimators which use topological or metric invariants. The paper evaluates the performance of these methods, as well as investigating varying responses to curvature and noise. Key issues addressed include robustness to hyperparameter selection, sample size requirements, accuracy in high dimensions, precision, and performance on non-linear geometries. In identifying the best hyperparameters for benchmark datasets, overfitting is frequent, indicating that many estimators may not generalise well beyond the datasets on which they have been tested.
When Speed meets Accuracy: an Efficient and Effective Graph Model for Temporal Link Prediction
Li, Haoyang, Xu, Yuming, Li, Yiming, Liu, Hanmo, Li, Darian, Zhang, Chen Jason, Chen, Lei, Li, Qing
Temporal link prediction in dynamic graphs is a critical task with applications in diverse domains such as social networks, recommendation systems, and e-commerce platforms. While existing Temporal Graph Neural Networks (T-GNNs) have achieved notable success by leveraging complex architectures to model temporal and structural dependencies, they often suffer from scalability and efficiency challenges due to high computational overhead. In this paper, we propose EAGLE, a lightweight framework that integrates short-term temporal recency and long-term global structural patterns. EAGLE consists of a time-aware module that aggregates information from a node's most recent neighbors to reflect its immediate preferences, and a structure-aware module that leverages temporal personalized PageRank to capture the influence of globally important nodes. To balance these attributes, EAGLE employs an adaptive weighting mechanism to dynamically adjust their contributions based on data characteristics. Also, EAGLE eliminates the need for complex multi-hop message passing or memory-intensive mechanisms, enabling significant improvements in efficiency. Extensive experiments on seven real-world temporal graphs demonstrate that EAGLE consistently achieves superior performance against state-of-the-art T-GNNs in both effectiveness and efficiency, delivering more than a 50x speedup over effective transformer-based T-GNNs.
An Enhanced Model-based Approach for Short Text Clustering
Cheng, Enhao, Zhang, Shoujia, Yin, Jianhua, Song, Xuemeng, Gan, Tian, Nie, Liqiang
--Short text clustering has become increasingly important with the popularity of social media like Twitter, Google+, and Facebook. Existing methods can be broadly categorized into two paradigms: topic model-based approaches and deep representation learning-based approaches. This task is inherently challenging due to the sparse, large-scale, and high-dimensional characteristics of the short text data. Furthermore, the computational intensity required by representation learning significantly increases the running time. T o address these issues, we propose a collapsed Gibbs Sampling algorithm for the Dirichlet Multinomial Mixture model (GSDMM), which effectively handles the sparsity and high dimensionality of short texts while identifying representative words for each cluster . Based on several aspects of GSDMM that warrant further refinement, we propose an improved approach, GSDMM+, designed to further optimize its performance. GSDMM+ reduces initialization noise and adap-tively adjusts word weights based on entropy, achieving fine-grained clustering that reveals more topic-related information. Additionally, strategic cluster merging is employed to refine clustering granularity, better aligning the predicted distribution with the true category distribution. We conduct extensive experiments, comparing our methods with both classical and state-of-the-art approaches. The experimental results demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of our methods. The source code for our model is publicly available at https://github.com/chehaoa/VEMC. HE proliferation of mobile internet has led to an exponential increase in user-generated data on online platforms, including video, text, and image data. Intelligent processing of such data can significantly enhance the quality of life across society and generate substantial economic benefits. Short text data are a prevalent and important form of user-generated data, consisting of concise texts such as microblogs and comments.
Feature Engineering is Not Dead: Reviving Classical Machine Learning with Entropy, HOG, and LBP Feature Fusion for Image Classification
Sen, Abhijit, Maiti, Giridas, Parida, Bikram K., Mishra, Bhanu P., Arya, Mahima, Bondar, Denys I.
--Feature engineering continues to play a critical role in image classification, particularly when interpretability and computational efficiency are prioritized over deep learning models with millions of parameters. In this study, we revisit classical machine learning based image classification through a novel approach centered on Permutation Entropy (PE), a robust and computationally lightweight measure traditionally used in time series analysis but rarely applied to image data. We extend PE to two-dimensional images and propose a multiscale, multi-orientation entropy-based feature extraction approach that characterizes spatial order and complexity along rows, columns, diagonals, anti-diagonals, and local patches of the image. T o enhance the discriminatory power of the entropy features, we integrate two classic image descriptors: the Histogram of Oriented Gradients (HOG) to capture shape and edge structure, and Local Binary Patterns (LBP) to encode micro-texture of an image. The resulting hand-crafted feature set, comprising of 780 dimensions, is used to train Support V ector Machine (SVM) classifiers optimized through grid search. The proposed approach is evaluated on multiple benchmark datasets, including Fashion-MNIST, KMNIST, EMNIST, and CIF AR-10, where it delivers competitive classification performance without relying on deep architectures. Our results demonstrate that the fusion of PE with HOG and LBP provides a compact, interpretable, and effective alternative to computationally expensive and limited interpretable deep learning models. This shows a potential of entropy-based descriptors in image classification and contributes a lightweight and generalizable solution to interpretable machine learning in image classification and computer vision. A Sen, B.K. Parida and D.I. Bondar are with Department of Physics and Engineering Physics, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana 70118, USA.