For classification with imbalanced class frequencies, i.e., imbalanced classification (IC), standard accuracy is known to be misleading as a performance measure. While most existing methods for IC resort to optimizing balanced accuracy (i.e., the average of class-wise recalls), they fall short in scenarios where the significance of classes varies or certain metrics should reach prescribed levels. In this paper, we study two key classification metrics, precision and recall, under three practical binary IC settings: fix precision optimize recall (FPOR), fix recall optimize precision (FROP), and optimize $F_β$-score (OFBS). Unlike existing methods that rely on smooth approximations to deal with the indicator function involved, \textit{we introduce, for the first time, exact constrained reformulations for these direct metric optimization (DMO) problems}, which can be effectively solved by exact penalty methods. Experiment results on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate the practical superiority of our approach over the state-of-the-art methods for the three DMO problems. We also expect our exact reformulation and optimization (ERO) framework to be applicable to a wide range of DMO problems for binary IC and beyond. Our code is available at https://github.com/sun-umn/DMO.

We propose a novel statistical inference framework for streaming principal component analysis (PCA) using Oja's algorithm, enabling the construction of confidence intervals for individual entries of the estimated eigenvector. Most existing works on streaming PCA focus on providing sharp sin-squared error guarantees. Recently, there has been some interest in uncertainty quantification for the sin-squared error. However, uncertainty quantification or sharp error guarantees for entries of the estimated eigenvector in the streaming setting remains largely unexplored. We derive a sharp Bernstein-type concentration bound for elements of the estimated vector matching the optimal error rate up to logarithmic factors. We also establish a Central Limit Theorem for a suitably centered and scaled subset of the entries. To efficiently estimate the coordinate-wise variance, we introduce a provably consistent subsampling algorithm that leverages the median-of-means approach, empirically achieving similar accuracy to multiplier bootstrap methods while being significantly more computationally efficient. Numerical experiments demonstrate its effectiveness in providing reliable uncertainty estimates with a fraction of the computational cost of existing methods.

Why do reinforcement learning (RL) policies fail or succeed? This is a challenging question due to the complex, high-dimensional nature of agent-environment interactions. In this work, we take a causal perspective on explaining the behavior of RL policies by viewing the states, actions, and rewards as variables in a low-level causal model. We introduce random perturbations to policy actions during execution and observe their effects on the cumulative reward, learning a simplified high-level causal model that explains these relationships. To this end, we develop a nonlinear Causal Model Reduction framework that ensures approximate interventional consistency, meaning the simplified high-level model responds to interventions in a similar way as the original complex system. We prove that for a class of nonlinear causal models, there exists a unique solution that achieves exact interventional consistency, ensuring learned explanations reflect meaningful causal patterns. Experiments on both synthetic causal models and practical RL tasks-including pendulum control and robot table tennis-demonstrate that our approach can uncover important behavioral patterns, biases, and failure modes in trained RL policies.

This paper introduces a framework for uncertainty quantification in regression models defined in metric spaces. Leveraging a newly defined notion of homoscedasticity, we develop a conformal prediction algorithm that offers finite-sample coverage guarantees and fast convergence rates of the oracle estimator. In heteroscedastic settings, we forgo these non-asymptotic guarantees to gain statistical efficiency, proposing a local $k$--nearest--neighbor method without conformal calibration that is adaptive to the geometry of each particular nonlinear space. Both procedures work with any regression algorithm and are scalable to large data sets, allowing practitioners to plug in their preferred models and incorporate domain expertise. We prove consistency for the proposed estimators under minimal conditions. Finally, we demonstrate the practical utility of our approach in personalized--medicine applications involving random response objects such as probability distributions and graph Laplacians.

This paper presents adaptive conformal selection (ACS), an interactive framework for model-free selection with guaranteed error control. Building on conformal selection (Jin and Candès, 2023b), ACS generalizes the approach to support human-in-the-loop adaptive data analysis. Under the ACS framework, we can partially reuse the data to boost the selection power, make decisions on the fly while exploring the data, and incorporate new information or preferences as they arise. The key to ACS is a carefully designed principle that controls the information available for decision making, allowing the data analyst to explore the data adaptively while maintaining rigorous control of the false discovery rate (FDR). Based on the ACS framework, we provide concrete selection algorithms for various goals, including model update/selection, diversified selection, and incorporating newly available labeled data. The effectiveness of ACS is demonstrated through extensive numerical simulations and real-data applications in large language model (LLM) deployment and drug discovery.

With the rise of service computing, cloud computing, and IoT, service ecosystems are becoming increasingly complex. The intricate interactions among intelligent agents make abnormal emergence analysis challenging, as traditional causal methods focus on individual trajectories. Large language models offer new possibilities for Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) through Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning to reveal agent intentions. However, existing approaches remain limited to microscopic and static analysis. This paper introduces a framework: Emergence Analysis based on Multi-Agent Intention (EAMI), which enables dynamic and interpretable emergence analysis. EAMI first employs a dual-perspective thought track mechanism, where an Inspector Agent and an Analysis Agent extract agent intentions under bounded and perfect rationality. Then, k-means clustering identifies phase transition points in group intentions, followed by a Intention Temporal Emergence diagram for dynamic analysis. The experiments validate EAMI in complex online-to-offline (O2O) service system and the Stanford AI Town experiment, with ablation studies confirming its effectiveness, generalizability, and efficiency. This framework provides a novel paradigm for abnormal emergence and causal analysis in service ecosystems. The code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/EAMI-B085.

Reza.vatankhahbarenji@ntu.ac.uk Abstract This paper explores the potential of Agentic AI in autonomously detecting and responding to anomalies within complex systems, emphasizing its ability to transform traditional, human - dependent anomaly management methods. Building on recent advancements, the study illustrates how Agentic AI -- AI agent augmented with large language models, diverse tools, and knowledge - based systems -- continuously analyses and learns from vast, multi - source datasets to autonomously identify, interpret, and respond to abnormal behav iours in complex, adaptive systems . Unlike conventional AI agents constrained by predefined roles, Agentic AI synthesizes insights across disciplines, detects subtle patterns, and adapts its strategies using both implicit and explicit knowledge. This paper underscores the need to evolve cu rrent human - based anomaly management approaches toward fully autonomous systems, highlighting Agentic AI's adaptive, goal - driven nature ...

Background: Radiomics shows promise in characterizing glioblastoma, but its added value over clinical and molecular predictors has yet to be proven. This study assessed the added value of conventional radiomics (CR) and deep learning (DL) MRI radiomics for glioblastoma prognosis (<= 6 vs > 6 months survival) on a large multi-center dataset. Methods: After patient selection, our curated dataset gathers 1152 glioblastoma (WHO 2016) patients from five Swiss centers and one public source. It included clinical (age, gender), molecular (MGMT, IDH), and baseline MRI data (T1, T1 contrast, FLAIR, T2) with tumor regions. CR and DL models were developed using standard methods and evaluated on internal and external cohorts. Sub-analyses assessed models with different feature sets (imaging-only, clinical/molecular-only, combined-features) and patient subsets (S-1: all patients, S-2: with molecular data, S-3: IDH wildtype). Results: The best performance was observed in the full cohort (S-1). In external validation, the combined-feature CR model achieved an AUC of 0.75, slightly, but significantly outperforming clinical-only (0.74) and imaging-only (0.68) models. DL models showed similar trends, though without statistical significance. In S-2 and S-3, combined models did not outperform clinical-only models. Exploratory analysis of CR models for overall survival prediction suggested greater relevance of imaging data: across all subsets, combined-feature models significantly outperformed clinical-only models, though with a modest advantage of 2-4 C-index points. Conclusions: While confirming the predictive value of anatomical MRI sequences for glioblastoma prognosis, this multi-center study found standard CR and DL radiomics approaches offer minimal added value over demographic predictors such as age and gender.

We propose CLEVER, an active learning system for robust semantic perception with Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). For data arriving in streams, our system seeks human support when encountering failures and adapts DNNs online based on human instructions. In this way, CLEVER can eventually accomplish the given semantic perception tasks. Our main contribution is the design of a system that meets several desiderata of realizing the aforementioned capabilities. The key enabler herein is our Bayesian formulation that encodes domain knowledge through priors. Empirically, we not only motivate CLEVER's design but further demonstrate its capabilities with a user validation study as well as experiments on humanoid and deformable objects. To our knowledge, we are the first to realize stream-based active learning on a real robot, providing evidence that the robustness of the DNN-based semantic perception can be improved in practice. The project website can be accessed at https://sites.google.com/view/thecleversystem.

This research was a part of a project that developed mobile robots that performed targeted pollen spraying and automated harvesting in pergola structured kiwifruit orchards. Multiple kiwifruit detachment mechanisms were designed and field testing of one of the concepts showed that the mechanism could reliably pick kiwifruit. Furthermore, this kiwifruit detachment mechanism was able to reach over 80 percent of fruit in the cluttered kiwifruit canopy, whereas the previous state of the art mechanism was only able to reach less than 70 percent of the fruit. Artificial pollination was performed by detecting flowers and then spraying pollen in solution onto the detected flowers from a line of sprayers on a boom, while driving at up to 1.4 ms-1. In addition, the height of the canopy was measured and the spray boom was moved up and down to keep the boom close enough to the flowers for the spray to reach the flowers, while minimising collisions with the canopy. Mobile robot navigation was performed using a 2D lidar in apple orchards and vineyards. Lidar navigation in kiwifruit orchards was more challenging because the pergola structure only provides a small amount of data for the direction of rows, compared to the amount of data from the overhead canopy, the undulating ground and other objects in the orchards. Multiple methods are presented here for extracting structure defining features from 3D lidar data in kiwifruit orchards. In addition, a 3D lidar navigation system -- which performed row following, row end detection and row end turns -- was tested for over 30 km of autonomous driving in kiwifruit orchards. Computer vision algorithms for row detection and row following were also tested. The computer vision algorithm worked as well as the 3D lidar row following method in testing.