Statistical Learning
Perfect Clustering in Very Sparse Diverse Multiplex Networks
The paper studies the DIverse MultiPLEx Signed Generalized Random Dot Product Graph (DIMPLE-SGRDPG) network model (Pensky (2024)), where all layers of the network have the same collection of nodes. In addition, all layers can be partitioned into groups such that the layers in the same group are embedded in the same ambient subspace but otherwise matrices of connection probabilities can be all different. This setting includes majority of multilayer network models as its particular cases. The key task in this model is to recover the groups of layers with unique subspace structures, since the case where all layers of the network are embedded in the same subspace has been fairly well studied. Until now, clustering of layers in such networks was based on the layer-per-layer analysis, which required the multilayer network to be sufficiently dense. Nevertheless, in this paper we succeeded in pooling information in all layers together and providing a tensor-based methodology that ensures perfect clustering for a much sparser network. Our theoretical results, established under intuitive non-restrictive assumptions, assert that the new technique achieves perfect clustering under sparsity conditions that, up to logarithmic factors, coincide with the computational lower bound derived for a much simpler model.
Forest-Guided Clustering -- Shedding Light into the Random Forest Black Box
Sousa, Lisa Barros de Andrade e, Miller, Gregor, Gleut, Ronan Le, Thalmeier, Dominik, Pelin, Helena, Piraud, Marie
As machine learning models are increasingly deployed in sensitive application areas, the demand for interpretable and trustworthy decision-making has increased. Random Forests (RF), despite their widespread use and strong performance on tabular data, remain difficult to interpret due to their ensemble nature. We present Forest-Guided Clustering (FGC), a model-specific explainability method that reveals both local and global structure in RFs by grouping instances according to shared decision paths. FGC produces human-interpretable clusters aligned with the model's internal logic and computes cluster-specific and global feature importance scores to derive decision rules underlying RF predictions. FGC accurately recovered latent subclass structure on a benchmark dataset and outperformed classical clustering and post-hoc explanation methods. Applied to an AML transcriptomic dataset, FGC uncovered biologically coherent subpopulations, disentangled disease-relevant signals from confounders, and recovered known and novel gene expression patterns. FGC bridges the gap between performance and interpretability by providing structure-aware insights that go beyond feature-level attribution.
SILS: Strategic Influence on Liquidity Stability and Whale Detection in Concentrated-Liquidity DEXs
RajabiNekoo, Ali, Rasoul, Laleh, Farhadi, Amirfarhad, Zamanifar, Azadeh
Traditional methods for identifying impactful liquidity providers (LPs) in Concentrated Liquidity Market Makers (CLMMs) rely on broad measures, such as nominal capital size or surface-level activity, which often lead to inaccurate risk analysis. The SILS framework offers a significantly more detailed approach, characterizing LPs not just as capital holders but as dynamic systemic agents whose actions directly impact market stability. This represents a fundamental paradigm shift from the static, volume-based analysis to a dynamic, impact-focused understanding. This advanced approach uses on-chain event logs and smart contract execution traces to compute Exponential Time-Weighted Liquidity (ETWL) profiles and apply unsupervised anomaly detection. Most importantly, it defines an LP's functional importance through the Liquidity Stability Impact Score (LSIS), a counterfactual metric that measures the potential degradation of the market if the LP withdraws. This combined approach provides a more detailed and realistic characterization of an LP's impact, moving beyond the binary and often misleading classifications used by existing methods. This impact-focused and comprehensive approach enables SILS to accurately identify high-impact LPs-including those missed by traditional methods and supports essential applications like a protective oracle layer and actionable trader signals, thereby significantly enhancing DeFi ecosystem. The framework provides unprecedented transparency into the underlying liquidity structure and associated risks, effectively reducing the common false positives and uncovering critical false negatives found in traditional models. Therefore, SILS provides an effective mechanism for proactive risk management, transforming how DeFi protocols safeguard their ecosystems against asymmetric liquidity behavior.
On Arbitrary Predictions from Equally Valid Models
Lockfisch, Sarah, Schwethelm, Kristian, Menten, Martin, Braren, Rickmer, Rueckert, Daniel, Ziller, Alexander, Kaissis, Georgios
Model multiplicity refers to the existence of multiple machine learning models that describe the data equally well but may produce different predictions on individual samples. In medicine, these models can admit conflicting predictions for the same patient -- a risk that is poorly understood and insufficiently addressed. In this study, we empirically analyze the extent, drivers, and ramifications of predictive multiplicity across diverse medical tasks and model architectures, and show that even small ensembles can mitigate/eliminate predictive multiplicity in practice. Our analysis reveals that (1) standard validation metrics fail to identify a uniquely optimal model and (2) a substantial amount of predictions hinges on arbitrary choices made during model development. Using multiple models instead of a single model reveals instances where predictions differ across equally plausible models -- highlighting patients that would receive arbitrary diagnoses if any single model were used. In contrast, (3) a small ensemble paired with an abstention strategy can effectively mitigate measurable predictive multiplicity in practice; predictions with high inter-model consensus may thus be amenable to automated classification. While accuracy is not a principled antidote to predictive multiplicity, we find that (4) higher accuracy achieved through increased model capacity reduces predictive multiplicity. Our findings underscore the clinical importance of accounting for model multiplicity and advocate for ensemble-based strategies to improve diagnostic reliability. In cases where models fail to reach sufficient consensus, we recommend deferring decisions to expert review.
FD4QC: Application of Classical and Quantum-Hybrid Machine Learning for Financial Fraud Detection A Technical Report
Cardaioli, Matteo, Marangoni, Luca, Martini, Giada, Mazzolin, Francesco, Pajola, Luca, Parodi, Andrea Ferretto, Saitta, Alessandra, Vernillo, Maria Chiara
The increasing complexity and volume of financial transactions pose significant challenges to traditional fraud detection systems. This technical report investigates and compares the efficacy of classical, quantum, and quantum-hybrid machine learning models for the binary classification of fraudulent financial activities. As of our methodology, first, we develop a comprehensive behavioural feature engineering framework to transform raw transactional data into a rich, descriptive feature set. Second, we implement and evaluate a range of models on the IBM Anti-Money Laundering (AML) dataset. The classical baseline models include Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and XGBoost. These are compared against three hybrid classic quantum algorithms architectures: a Quantum Support Vector Machine (QSVM), a Variational Quantum Classifier (VQC), and a Hybrid Quantum Neural Network (HQNN). Furthermore, we propose Fraud Detection for Quantum Computing (FD4QC), a practical, API-driven system architecture designed for real-world deployment, featuring a classical-first, quantum-enhanced philosophy with robust fallback mechanisms. Our results demonstrate that classical tree-based models, particularly \textit{Random Forest}, significantly outperform the quantum counterparts in the current setup, achieving high accuracy (\(97.34\%\)) and F-measure (\(86.95\%\)). Among the quantum models, \textbf{QSVM} shows the most promise, delivering high precision (\(77.15\%\)) and a low false-positive rate (\(1.36\%\)), albeit with lower recall and significant computational overhead. This report provides a benchmark for a real-world financial application, highlights the current limitations of quantum machine learning in this domain, and outlines promising directions for future research.
Doubling Your Data in Minutes: Ultra-fast Tabular Data Generation via LLM-Induced Dependency Graphs
Yang, Shuo, Zhang, Zheyu, Prenkaj, Bardh, Kasneci, Gjergji
Tabular data is critical across diverse domains, yet high-quality datasets remain scarce due to privacy concerns and the cost of collection. Contemporary approaches adopt large language models (LLMs) for tabular augmentation, but exhibit two major limitations: (1) dense dependency modeling among tabular features that can introduce bias, and (2) high computational overhead in sampling. To address these issues, we propose SPADA for SPArse Dependency-driven Augmentation, a lightweight generative framework that explicitly captures sparse dependencies via an LLM-induced graph. We treat each feature as a node and synthesize values by traversing the graph, conditioning each feature solely on its parent nodes. We explore two synthesis strategies: a non-parametric method using Gaussian kernel density estimation, and a conditional normalizing flow model that learns invertible mappings for conditional density estimation. Experiments on four datasets show that SPADA reduces constraint violations by 4% compared to diffusion-based methods and accelerates generation by nearly 9,500 times over LLM-based baselines.
Query Efficient Structured Matrix Learning
Amsel, Noah, Avi, Pratyush, Chen, Tyler, Keles, Feyza Duman, Hegde, Chinmay, Musco, Cameron, Musco, Christopher, Persson, David
We study the problem of learning a structured approximation (low-rank, sparse, banded, etc.) to an unknown matrix $A$ given access to matrix-vector product (matvec) queries of the form $x \rightarrow Ax$ and $x \rightarrow A^Tx$. This problem is of central importance to algorithms across scientific computing and machine learning, with applications to fast multiplication and inversion for structured matrices, building preconditioners for first-order optimization, and as a model for differential operator learning. Prior work focuses on obtaining query complexity upper and lower bounds for learning specific structured matrix families that commonly arise in applications. We initiate the study of the problem in greater generality, aiming to understand the query complexity of learning approximations from general matrix families. Our main result focuses on finding a near-optimal approximation to $A$ from any finite-sized family of matrices, $\mathcal{F}$. Standard results from matrix sketching show that $O(\log|\mathcal{F}|)$ matvec queries suffice in this setting. This bound can also be achieved, and is optimal, for vector-matrix-vector queries of the form $x,y\rightarrow x^TAy$, which have been widely studied in work on rank-$1$ matrix sensing. Surprisingly, we show that, in the matvec model, it is possible to obtain a nearly quadratic improvement in complexity, to $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{\log|\mathcal{F}|})$. Further, we prove that this bound is tight up to log-log factors.Via covering number arguments, our result extends to well-studied infinite families. As an example, we establish that a near-optimal approximation from any \emph{linear matrix family} of dimension $q$ can be learned with $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{q})$ matvec queries, improving on an $O(q)$ bound achievable via sketching techniques and vector-matrix-vector queries.
Automatic Cough Analysis for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Detection
Giangregorio, Chiara, Licciardello, Cristina Maria, Miskovic, Vanja, Provenzano, Leonardo, Pedrocchi, Alessandra Laura Giulia, Dumitrascu, Andra Diana, Prelaj, Arsela, Garassino, Marina Chiara, Ambrosini, Emilia, Ferrante, Simona
Early detection of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is critical for improving patient outcomes, and novel approaches are needed to facilitate early diagnosis. In this study, we explore the use of automatic cough analysis as a pre-screening tool for distinguishing between NSCLC patients and healthy controls. Cough audio recordings were prospectively acquired from a total of 227 subjects, divided into NSCLC patients and healthy controls. The recordings were analyzed using machine learning techniques, such as support vector machine (SVM) and XGBoost, as well as deep learning approaches, specifically convolutional neural networks (CNN) and transfer learning with VGG16. To enhance the interpretability of the machine learning model, we utilized Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP). The fairness of the models across demographic groups was assessed by comparing the performance of the best model across different age groups (less than or equal to 58y and higher than 58y) and gender using the equalized odds difference on the test set. The results demonstrate that CNN achieves the best performance, with an accuracy of 0.83 on the test set. Nevertheless, SVM achieves slightly lower performances (accuracy of 0.76 in validation and 0.78 in the test set), making it suitable in contexts with low computational power. The use of SHAP for SVM interpretation further enhances model transparency, making it more trustworthy for clinical applications. Fairness analysis shows slightly higher disparity across age (0.15) than gender (0.09) on the test set. Therefore, to strengthen our findings' reliability, a larger, more diverse, and unbiased dataset is needed -- particularly including individuals at risk of NSCLC and those in early disease stages.
Graph Structure Learning with Privacy Guarantees for Open Graph Data
Guo, Muhao, Wu, Jiaqi, Weng, Yang, Liao, Yizheng, Chen, Shengzhe
Ensuring privacy in large-scale open datasets is increasingly challenging under regulations such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). While differential privacy (DP) provides strong theoretical guarantees, it primarily focuses on noise injection during model training, neglecting privacy preservation at the data publishing stage. Existing privacy-preserving data publishing (PPDP) approaches struggle to balance privacy and utility, particularly when data publishers and users are distinct entities. To address this gap, we focus on the graph recovery problem and propose a novel privacy-preserving estimation framework for open graph data, leveraging Gaussian DP (GDP) with a structured noise-injection mechanism. Unlike traditional methods that perturb gradients or model updates, our approach ensures unbiased graph structure recovery while enforcing DP at the data publishing stage. Moreover, we provide theoretical guarantees on estimation accuracy and extend our method to discrete-variable graphs, a setting often overlooked in DP research. Experimental results in graph learning demonstrate robust performance, offering a viable solution for privacy-conscious graph analysis.
Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Recurrence Classification Using Machine Learning Models and Bayesian Neural Networks with Varying Priors: A SHAP-Based Interpretation of the Best Performing Model
Kumari, HMNS, Kumari, HMLS, Nawarathne, UMMPK
Differentiated thyroid cancer DTC recurrence is a major public health concern, requiring classification and predictive models that are not only accurate but also interpretable and uncertainty aware. This study introduces a comprehensive framework for DTC recurrence classification using a dataset containing 383 patients and 16 clinical and pathological variables. Initially, 11 machine learning ML models were employed using the complete dataset, where the Support Vector Machines SVM model achieved the highest accuracy of 0.9481. To reduce complexity and redundancy, feature selection was carried out using the Boruta algorithm, and the same ML models were applied to the reduced dataset, where it was observed that the Logistic Regression LR model obtained the maximum accuracy of 0.9611. However, these ML models often lack uncertainty quantification, which is critical in clinical decision making. Therefore, to address this limitation, the Bayesian Neural Networks BNN with six varying prior distributions, including Normal 0,1, Normal 0,10, Laplace 0,1, Cauchy 0,1, Cauchy 0,2.5, and Horseshoe 1, were implemented on both the complete and reduced datasets. The BNN model with Normal 0,10 prior distribution exhibited maximum accuracies of 0.9740 and 0.9870 before and after feature selection, respectively.