Bivariate causal direction identification is a fundamental and vital problem in the causal inference field. Among binary causal methods, most methods based on additive noise only use one single causal mechanism to construct a causal model. In the real world, observations are always collected in different environments with heterogeneous causal relationships. Therefore, on observation data, this paper proposes a Mixture Conditional Variational Causal Inference model (MCVCI) to infer heterogeneous causality. Specifically, according to the identifiability of the Hybrid Additive Noise Model (HANM), MCVCI combines the superior fitting capabilities of the Gaussian mixture model and the neural network and elegantly uses the likelihoods obtained from the probabilistic bounds of the mixture conditional variational auto-encoder as causal decision criteria. Moreover, we model the casual heterogeneity into cluster numbers and propose the Mixture Conditional Variational Causal Clustering (MCVCC) method, which can reveal causal mechanism expression. Compared with state-of-the-art methods, the comprehensive best performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the methods proposed in this paper on several simulated and real data.

Embodied intelligence posits that cognitive capabilities fundamentally emerge from - and are shaped by - an agent's real-time sensorimotor interactions with its environment. Such adaptive behavior inherently requires continuous inference under uncertainty. Bayesian statistics offers a principled probabilistic framework to address this challenge by representing knowledge as probability distributions and updating beliefs in response to new evidence. The core computational processes underlying embodied intelligence - including perception, action selection, learning, and even higher-level cognition - can be effectively understood and modeled as forms of Bayesian inference. Despite the deep conceptual connection between Bayesian statistics and embodied intelligence, Bayesian principles have not been widely or explicitly applied in today's embodied intelligence systems. In this work, we examine both Bayesian and contemporary embodied intelligence approaches through two fundamental lenses: search and learning - the two central themes in modern AI, as highlighted in Rich Sutton's influential essay "The Bitter Lesson". This analysis sheds light on why Bayesian inference has not played a central role in the development of modern embodied intelligence. At the same time, it reveals that current embodied intelligence systems remain largely confined to closed-physical-world environments, and highlights the potential for Bayesian methods to play a key role in extending these systems toward truly open physical-world embodied intelligence.

The distribution of data in the world (eg, internet, etc.) significantly differs from the well-curated datasets and is often over-populated with samples from common categories. The algorithms designed for well-curated datasets perform suboptimally when used for learning from imperfect datasets with long-tailed imbalances and distribution shifts. To expand the use of deep models, it is essential to overcome the labor-intensive curation process by developing robust algorithms that can learn from diverse, real-world data distributions. Toward this goal, we develop practical algorithms for Deep Neural Networks which can learn from limited and imperfect data present in the real world. This thesis is divided into four segments, each covering a scenario of learning from limited or imperfect data. The first part of the thesis focuses on Learning Generative Models from Long-Tail Data, where we mitigate the mode-collapse and enable diverse aesthetic image generations for tail (minority) classes. In the second part, we enable effective generalization on tail classes through Inductive Regularization schemes, which allow tail classes to generalize as effectively as the head classes without requiring explicit generation of images. In the third part, we develop algorithms for Optimizing Relevant Metrics for learning from long-tailed data with limited annotation (semi-supervised), followed by the fourth part, which focuses on the Efficient Domain Adaptation of the model to various domains with very few to zero labeled samples.

Traditional machine learning models, particularly neural networks, are rooted in finite-dimensional parameter spaces and nonlinear function approximations. This report explores an alternative formulation where learning tasks are expressed as sampling and computation in infinite dimensional Hilbert spaces, leveraging tools from functional analysis, signal processing, and spectral theory. We review foundational concepts such as Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS), spectral operator learning, and wavelet-domain representations. We present a rigorous mathematical formulation of learning in Hilbert spaces, highlight recent models based on scattering transforms and Koopman operators, and discuss advantages and limitations relative to conventional neural architectures. The report concludes by outlining directions for scalable and interpretable machine learning grounded in Hilbertian signal processing.

MOOCs offer free and open access to a wide audience, but completion rates remain low, often due to a lack of personalized content. To address this issue, it is essential to predict learner performance in order to provide tailored feedback. Behavioral traces-such as clicks and events-can be analyzed as time series to anticipate learners' outcomes. This work compares multivariate time series classification methods to identify at-risk learners at different stages of the course (after 5, 10 weeks, etc.). The experimental evaluation, conducted on the Open University Learning Analytics Dataset (OULAD), focuses on three courses: two in STEM and one in SHS. Preliminary results show that the evaluated approaches are promising for predicting learner failure in MOOCs. The analysis also suggests that prediction accuracy is influenced by the amount of recorded interactions, highlighting the importance of rich and diverse behavioral data.

Beta regression is commonly employed when the outcome variable is a proportion. Since its conception, the approach has been widely used in applications spanning various scientific fields. A series of extensions have been proposed over time, several of which address variable selection and penalized estimation, e.g., with an $\ell_1$-penalty (LASSO). However, a theoretical analysis of this popular approach in the context of Beta regression with high-dimensional predictors is lacking. In this paper, we aim to close this gap. A particular challenge arises from the non-convexity of the associated negative log-likelihood, which we address by resorting to a framework for analyzing stationary points in a neighborhood of the target parameter. Leveraging this framework, we derive a non-asymptotic bound on the $\ell_1$-error of such stationary points. In addition, we propose a debiasing approach to construct confidence intervals for the regression parameters. A proximal gradient algorithm is devised for optimizing the resulting penalized negative log-likelihood function. Our theoretical analysis is corroborated via simulation studies, and a real data example concerning the prediction of county-level proportions of incarceration is presented to showcase the practical utility of our methodology.

Modern neural networks, despite their high accuracy, often produce poorly calibrated confidence scores, limiting their reliability in high-stakes applications. Existing calibration methods typically post-process model outputs without interrogating the internal consistency of the predictions themselves. In this work, we introduce a novel, non-parametric statistical probe, the Bag-of-Coins (BoC) test, that examines the internal consistency of a classifier's logits. The BoC test reframes confidence estimation as a frequentist hypothesis test: does the model's top-ranked class win 1-v-1 contests against random competitors at a rate consistent with its own stated softmax probability? When applied to modern deep learning architectures, this simple probe reveals a fundamental dichotomy. On Vision Transformers (ViTs), the BoC output serves as a state-of-the-art confidence score, achieving near-perfect calibration with an ECE of 0.0212, an 88% improvement over a temperature-scaled baseline. Conversely, on Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) like ResNet, the probe reveals a deep inconsistency between the model's predictions and its internal logit structure, a property missed by traditional metrics. We posit that BoC is not merely a calibration method, but a new diagnostic tool for understanding and exposing the differing ways that popular architectures represent uncertainty.

Deep anchor-based multi-view clustering methods enhance the scalability of neural networks by utilizing representative anchors to reduce the computational complexity of large-scale clustering. Despite their scalability advantages, existing approaches often incorporate anchor structures in a heuristic or task-agnostic manner, either through post-hoc graph construction or as auxiliary components for message passing. Such designs overlook the core structural demands of anchor-based clustering, neglecting key optimization principles. To bridge this gap, we revisit the underlying optimization problem of large-scale anchor-based multi-view clustering and unfold its iterative solution into a novel deep network architecture, termed LargeMvC-Net. The proposed model decomposes the anchor-based clustering process into three modules: RepresentModule, NoiseModule, and AnchorModule, corresponding to representation learning, noise suppression, and anchor indicator estimation. Each module is derived by unfolding a step of the original optimization procedure into a dedicated network component, providing structural clarity and optimization traceability. In addition, an unsupervised reconstruction loss aligns each view with the anchor-induced latent space, encouraging consistent clustering structures across views. Extensive experiments on several large-scale multi-view benchmarks show that LargeMvC-Net consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of both effectiveness and scalability.

We study the problem of imitating an expert demonstrator in a continuous state-and-action dynamical system. While imitation learning in discrete settings such as autoregressive language modeling has seen immense success and popularity in recent years, imitation in physical settings such as autonomous driving and robot learning has proven comparably more complex due to the compounding errors problem, often requiring elaborate set-ups to perform stably. Recent work has demonstrated that even in benign settings, exponential compounding errors are unavoidable when learning solely from expert-controlled trajectories, suggesting the need for more advanced policy parameterizations or data augmentation. To this end, we present minimal interventions that provably mitigate compounding errors in continuous state-and-action imitation learning. When the system is open-loop stable, we prescribe "action chunking," i.e., predicting and playing sequences of actions in open-loop; when the system is possibly unstable, we prescribe "noise injection," i.e., adding noise during expert demonstrations. These interventions align with popular choices in modern robot learning, though the benefits we derive are distinct from the effects they were designed to target. Our results draw insights and tools from both control theory and reinforcement learning; however, our analysis reveals novel considerations that do not naturally arise when either literature is considered in isolation.

While achieving exact conditional coverage in conformal prediction is unattainable without making strong, untestable regularity assumptions, the promise of conformal prediction hinges on finding approximations to conditional guarantees that are realizable in practice. A promising direction for obtaining conditional dependence for conformal sets--in particular capturing heteroskedasticity--is through estimating the conditional density $\mathbb{P}_{Y|X}$ and conformalizing its level sets. Previous work in this vein has focused on nonconformity scores based on the empirical cumulative distribution function (CDF). Such scores are, however, computationally costly, typically requiring expensive sampling methods. To avoid the need for sampling, we observe that the CDF-based score reduces to a Mahalanobis distance in the case of Gaussian scores, yielding a closed-form expression that can be directly conformalized. Moreover, the use of a Gaussian-based score opens the door to a number of extensions of the basic conformal method; in particular, we show how to construct conformal sets with missing output values, refine conformal sets as partial information about $Y$ becomes available, and construct conformal sets on transformations of the output space. Finally, empirical results indicate that our approach produces conformal sets that more closely approximate conditional coverage in multivariate settings compared to alternative methods.