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 Statistical Learning


Clustering via Self-Supervised Diffusion

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Diffusion models, widely recognized for their success in generative tasks, have not yet been applied to clustering. We introduce Clustering via Diffusion (CLUDI), a self-supervised framework that combines the generative power of diffusion models with pre-trained Vision Transformer features to achieve robust and accurate clustering. CLUDI is trained via a teacher-student paradigm: the teacher uses stochastic diffusion-based sampling to produce diverse cluster assignments, which the student refines into stable predictions. This stochasticity acts as a novel data augmentation strategy, enabling CLUDI to uncover intricate structures in high-dimensional data. Extensive evaluations on challenging datasets demonstrate that CLUDI achieves state-of-the-art performance in unsupervised classification, setting new benchmarks in clustering robustness and adaptability to complex data distributions. Our code is available at https://github.com/BGU-CS-VIL/CLUDI.


A case for data valuation transparency via DValCards

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Following the rise in popularity of data-centric machine learning (ML), various data valuation methods have been proposed to quantify the contribution of each datapoint to desired ML model performance metrics (e.g., accuracy). Beyond the technical applications of data valuation methods (e.g., data cleaning, data acquisition, etc.), it has been suggested that within the context of data markets, data buyers might utilize such methods to fairly compensate data owners. Here we demonstrate that data valuation metrics are inherently biased and unstable under simple algorithmic design choices, resulting in both technical and ethical implications. By analyzing 9 tabular classification datasets and 6 data valuation methods, we illustrate how (1) common and inexpensive data pre-processing techniques can drastically alter estimated data values; (2) subsampling via data valuation metrics may increase class imbalance; and (3) data valuation metrics may undervalue underrepresented group data. Consequently, we argue in favor of increased transparency associated with data valuation in-the-wild and introduce the novel Data Valuation Cards (DValCards) framework towards this aim. The proliferation of DValCards will reduce misuse of data valuation metrics, including in data pricing, and build trust in responsible ML systems.


Long-Tailed Learning for Generalized Category Discovery

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Generalized Category Discovery (GCD) utilizes labeled samples of known classes to discover novel classes in unlabeled samples. Existing methods show effective performance on artificial datasets with balanced distributions. However, real-world datasets are always imbalanced, significantly affecting the effectiveness of these methods. To solve this problem, we propose a novel framework that performs generalized category discovery in long-tailed distributions. We first present a self-guided labeling technique that uses a learnable distribution to generate pseudo-labels, resulting in less biased classifiers. We then introduce a representation balancing process to derive discriminative representations. By mining sample neighborhoods, this process encourages the model to focus more on tail classes. We conduct experiments on public datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. The results show that our model exceeds previous state-of-the-art methods.


Local Mixtures of Experts: Essentially Free Test-Time Training via Model Merging

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Mixture of expert (MoE) models are a promising approach to increasing model capacity without increasing inference cost, and are core components of many state-of-the-art language models. However, current MoE models typically use only few experts due to prohibitive training and inference cost. We propose Test-Time Model Merging (TTMM) which scales the MoE paradigm to an order of magnitude more experts and uses model merging to avoid almost any test-time overhead. We show that TTMM is an approximation of test-time training (TTT), which fine-tunes an expert model for each prediction task, i.e., prompt. TTT has recently been shown to significantly improve language models, but is computationally expensive. We find that performance of TTMM improves with more experts and approaches the performance of TTT. Moreover, we find that with a 1B parameter base model, TTMM is more than 100x faster than TTT at test-time by amortizing the cost of TTT at train-time. Thus, TTMM offers a promising cost-effective approach to scale test-time training.


Will AI Take My Job? Evolving Perceptions of Automation and Labor Risk in Latin America

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As artificial intelligence and robotics increasingly reshape the global labor market, understanding public perceptions of these technologies becomes critical. We examine how these perceptions have evolved across Latin America, using survey data from the 2017, 2018, 2020, and 2023 waves of the Lati-nobar ometro. Drawing on responses from over 48,000 individuals across 16 countries, we analyze fear of job loss due to artificial intelligence and robotics. Using statistical modeling and latent class analysis, we identify key structural and ideological predictors of concern, with education level and political orientation emerging as the most consistent drivers. Our findings reveal substantial temporal and cross-country variation, with a notable peak in fear during 2018 and distinct attitudinal profiles emerging from latent segmentation. These results offer new insights into the social and structural dimensions of AI anxiety in emerging economies and contribute to a broader understanding of public attitudes toward automation beyond the Global North.


Convergence Properties of Natural Gradient Descent for Minimizing KL Divergence

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence plays a central role in probabilistic machine learning, where it commonly serves as the canonical loss function. Optimization in such settings is often performed over the probability simplex, where the choice of parameterization significantly impacts convergence. In this work, we study the problem of minimizing the KL divergence and analyze the behavior of gradient-based optimization algorithms under two dual coordinate systems within the framework of information geometry$-$ the exponential family ($ฮธ$ coordinates) and the mixture family ($ฮท$ coordinates). We compare Euclidean gradient descent (GD) in these coordinates with the coordinate-invariant natural gradient descent (NGD), where the natural gradient is a Riemannian gradient that incorporates the intrinsic geometry of the underlying statistical model. In continuous time, we prove that the convergence rates of GD in the $ฮธ$ and $ฮท$ coordinates provide lower and upper bounds, respectively, on the convergence rate of NGD. Moreover, under affine reparameterizations of the dual coordinates, the convergence rates of GD in $ฮท$ and $ฮธ$ coordinates can be scaled to $2c$ and $\frac{2}{c}$, respectively, for any $c>0$, while NGD maintains a fixed convergence rate of $2$, remaining invariant to such transformations and sandwiched between them. Although this suggests that NGD may not exhibit uniformly superior convergence in continuous time, we demonstrate that its advantages become pronounced in discrete time, where it achieves faster convergence and greater robustness to noise, outperforming GD. Our analysis hinges on bounding the spectrum and condition number of the Hessian of the KL divergence at the optimum, which coincides with the Fisher information matrix.


Quantifying surprise in clinical care: Detecting highly informative events in electronic health records with foundation models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a foundation model-derived method to identify highly informative tokens and events in electronic health records. Our approach considers incoming data in the entire context of a patient's hospitalization and so can flag anomalous events that rule-based approaches would consider within a normal range. We demonstrate that the events our model flags are significant for predicting downstream patient outcomes and that a fraction of events identified as carrying little information can safely be dropped. Additionally, we show how informativeness can help interpret the predictions of prognostic models trained on foundation model-derived representations.


Enhanced Prediction of CAR T-Cell Cytotoxicity with Quantum-Kernel Methods

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cells are T-cells engineered to recognize and kill specific tumor cells. Through their extracellular domains, CAR T-cells bind tumor cell antigens which triggers CAR T activation and proliferation. These processes are regulated by co-stimulatory domains present in the intracellular region of the CAR T-cell. Through integrating novel signaling components into the co-stimulatory domains, it is possible to modify CAR T-cell phenotype. Identifying and experimentally testing new CAR constructs based on libraries of co-stimulatory domains is nontrivial given the vast combinatorial space defined by such libraries. This leads to a highly data constrained, poorly explored combinatorial problem, where the experiments undersample all possible combinations. We propose a quantum approach using a Projected Quantum Kernel (PQK) to address this challenge. PQK operates by embedding classical data into a high dimensional Hilbert space and employs a kernel method to measure sample similarity. Using 61 qubits on a gate-based quantum computer, we demonstrate the largest PQK application to date and an enhancement in the classification performance over purely classical machine learning methods for CAR T cytotoxicity prediction. Importantly, we show improved learning for specific signaling domains and domain positions, particularly where there was lower information highlighting the potential for quantum computing in data-constrained problems.


Cluster-Based Random Forest Visualization and Interpretation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Random forests are a machine learning method used to automatically classify datasets and consist of a multitude of decision trees. While these random forests often have higher performance and generalize better than a single decision tree, they are also harder to interpret. This paper presents a visualization method and system to increase interpretability of random forests. We cluster similar trees which enables users to interpret how the model performs in general without needing to analyze each individual decision tree in detail, or interpret an oversimplified summary of the full forest. To meaningfully cluster the decision trees, we introduce a new distance metric that takes into account both the decision rules as well as the predictions of a pair of decision trees. We also propose two new visualization methods that visualize both clustered and individual decision trees: (1) The Feature Plot, which visualizes the topological position of features in the decision trees, and (2) the Rule Plot, which visualizes the decision rules of the decision trees. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach through a case study on the "Glass" dataset, which is a relatively complex standard machine learning dataset, as well as a small user study.


Comparing Normalizing Flows with Kernel Density Estimation in Estimating Risk of Automated Driving Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The development of safety validation methods is essential for the safe deployment and operation of Automated Driving Systems (ADSs). One of the goals of safety validation is to prospectively evaluate the risk of an ADS dealing with real-world traffic. Scenario-based assessment is a widely-used approach, where test cases are derived from real-world driving data. To allow for a quantitative analysis of the system performance, the exposure of the scenarios must be accurately estimated. The exposure of scenarios at parameter level is expressed using a Probability Density Function (PDF). However, assumptions about the PDF, such as parameter independence, can introduce errors, while avoiding assumptions often leads to oversimplified models with limited parameters to mitigate the curse of dimensionality. This paper considers the use of Normalizing Flows (NF) for estimating the PDF of the parameters. NF are a class of generative models that transform a simple base distribution into a complex one using a sequence of invertible and differentiable mappings, enabling flexible, high-dimensional density estimation without restrictive assumptions on the PDF's shape. We demonstrate the effectiveness of NF in quantifying risk and risk uncertainty of an ADS, comparing its performance with Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), a traditional method for non-parametric PDF estimation. While NF require more computational resources compared to KDE, NF is less sensitive to the curse of dimensionality. As a result, NF can improve risk uncertainty estimation, offering a more precise assessment of an ADS's safety. This work illustrates the potential of NF in scenario-based safety. Future work involves experimenting more with using NF for scenario generation and optimizing the NF architecture, transformation types, and training hyperparameters to further enhance their applicability.