Statistical Learning
Assumptions to Evidence: Evaluating Security Practices Adoption and Their Impact on Outcomes in the npm Ecosystem
Zahan, Nusrat, Rahman, Imranur, Williams, Laurie
Practitioners often struggle with the overwhelming number of security practices outlined in cybersecurity frameworks for risk mitigation. Given the limited budget, time, and resources, practitioners want to prioritize the adoption of security practices based on empirical evidence. The goal of this study is to assist practitioners and policymakers in making informed decisions on which security practices to adopt by evaluating the relationship between software security practices adoption and security outcome metrics. To do this, we analyzed the adoption of security practices and their impact on security outcome metrics across 145K npm packages. We selected the OpenSSF Scorecard metrics to automatically measure the adoption of security practices in npm GitHub repositories. We also investigated project-level security outcome metrics: the number of open vulnerabilities (Vul_Count)), mean time to remediate (MTTR) vulnerabilities in dependencies, and mean time to update (MTTU) dependencies. We conducted regression and causal analysis using 11 Scorecard metrics and the aggregated Scorecard score (computed by aggregating individual security practice scores) as predictors and Vul_Count), MTTR, and MTTU as target variables. Our findings reveal that aggregated adoption of security practices is associated with 5.2 fewer vulnerabilities, 216.8 days faster MTTR, and 52.3 days faster MTTU. Repository characteristics have an impact on security practice effectiveness: repositories with high security practice adoptions, especially those that are mature, actively maintained, large in size, have many contributors, few dependencies, and high download volumes, tend to exhibit better outcomes compared to smaller or inactive repositories.
Between Linear and Sinusoidal: Rethinking the Time Encoder in Dynamic Graph Learning
Chung, Hsing-Huan, Chaudhari, Shravan, Han, Xing, Wald, Yoav, Saria, Suchi, Ghosh, Joydeep
Dynamic graph learning is essential for applications involving temporal networks and requires effective modeling of temporal relationships. Seminal attention-based models like TGAT and DyGFormer rely on sinusoidal time encoders to capture temporal dependencies between edge events. Prior work justified sinusoidal encodings because their inner products depend on the time spans between events, which are crucial features for modeling inter-event relations. However, sinusoidal encodings inherently lose temporal information due to their many-to-one nature and therefore require high dimensions. In this paper, we rigorously study a simpler alternative: the linear time encoder, which avoids temporal information loss caused by sinusoidal functions and reduces the need for high-dimensional time encoders. We show that the self-attention mechanism can effectively learn to compute time spans between events from linear time encodings and extract relevant temporal patterns. Through extensive experiments on six dynamic graph datasets, we demonstrate that the linear time encoder improves the performance of TGAT and DyGFormer in most cases. Moreover, the linear time encoder can lead to significant savings in model parameters with minimal performance loss. For example, compared to a 100-dimensional sinusoidal time encoder, TGAT with a 2-dimensional linear time encoder saves 43% of parameters and achieves higher average precision on five datasets. While both encoders can be used simultaneously, our study highlights the often-overlooked advantages of linear time features in modern dynamic graph models. These findings can positively impact the design choices of various dynamic graph learning architectures and eventually benefit temporal network applications such as recommender systems, communication networks, and traffic forecasting.
Contextual Phenotyping of Pediatric Sepsis Cohort Using Large Language Models
Nagori, Aditya, Gautam, Ayush, Wiens, Matthew O., Nguyen, Vuong, Mugisha, Nathan Kenya, Kabakyenga, Jerome, Kissoon, Niranjan, Ansermino, John Mark, Kamaleswaran, Rishikesan
Clustering patient subgroups is essential for personalized care and efficient resource use. Traditional clustering methods struggle with high-dimensional, heterogeneous healthcare data and lack contextual understanding. This study evaluates Large Language Model (LLM) based clustering against classical methods using a pediatric sepsis dataset from a low-income country (LIC), containing 2,686 records with 28 numerical and 119 categorical variables. Patient records were serialized into text with and without a clustering objective. Embeddings were generated using quantized LLAMA 3.1 8B, DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Llama-8B with low-rank adaptation(LoRA), and Stella-En-400M-V5 models. K-means clustering was applied to these embeddings. Classical comparisons included K-Medoids clustering on UMAP and FAMD-reduced mixed data. Silhouette scores and statistical tests evaluated cluster quality and distinctiveness. Stella-En-400M-V5 achieved the highest Silhouette Score (0.86). LLAMA 3.1 8B with the clustering objective performed better with higher number of clusters, identifying subgroups with distinct nutritional, clinical, and socioeconomic profiles. LLM-based methods outperformed classical techniques by capturing richer context and prioritizing key features. These results highlight potential of LLMs for contextual phenotyping and informed decision-making in resource-limited settings.
Investigating Robotaxi Crash Severity with Geographical Random Forest and the Urban Environment
Jiao, Junfeng, Baik, Seung Gyu, Choi, Seung Jun, Xu, Yiming
This paper quantitatively investigates the crash severity of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) with spatially localized machine learning and macroscopic measures of the urban built environment. Extending beyond the microscopic effects of individual infrastructure elements, we focus on the city-scale land use and behavioral patterns, while addressing spatial heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation. We implemented a spatially localized machine learning technique called Geographical Random Forest (GRF) on the California AV collision dataset. Analyzing multiple urban measures, including points of interest, building footprint, and land use, we built a GRF model and visualized it as a crash severity risk map of San Francisco. This paper presents three findings. First, spatially localized machine learning outperformed regular machine learning in predicting AV crash severity. The bias-variance tradeoff was evident as we adjusted the localization weight hyperparameter. Second, land use was the most important predictor, compared to intersections, building footprints, public transit stops, and Points Of Interest (POIs). Third, AV crashes were more likely to result in low-severity incidents in city center areas with greater diversity and commercial activities, than in residential neighborhoods. Residential land use is likely associated with higher severity due to human behavior and less restrictive environments. Counterintuitively, residential areas were associated with higher crash severity, compared to more complex areas such as commercial and mixed-use areas. When robotaxi operators train their AV systems, it is recommended to: (1) consider where their fleet operates and make localized algorithms for their perception system, and (2) design safety measures specific to residential neighborhoods, such as slower driving speeds and more alert sensors.
Avoiding Leakage Poisoning: Concept Interventions Under Distribution Shifts
Zarlenga, Mateo Espinosa, Dominici, Gabriele, Barbiero, Pietro, Shams, Zohreh, Jamnik, Mateja
In this paper, we investigate how concept-based models (CMs) respond to out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. CMs are interpretable neural architectures that first predict a set of high-level concepts (e.g., stripes, black) and then predict a task label from those concepts. In particular, we study the impact of concept interventions (i.e., operations where a human expert corrects a CM's mispredicted concepts at test time) on CMs' task predictions when inputs are OOD. Our analysis reveals a weakness in current state-of-the-art CMs, which we term leakage poisoning, that prevents them from properly improving their accuracy when intervened on for OOD inputs. To address this, we introduce MixCEM, a new CM that learns to dynamically exploit leaked information missing from its concepts only when this information is in-distribution. Our results across tasks with and without complete sets of concept annotations demonstrate that MixCEMs outperform strong baselines by significantly improving their accuracy for both in-distribution and OOD samples in the presence and absence of concept interventions.
Mitigating Persistent Client Dropout in Asynchronous Decentralized Federated Learning
Stฤpka, Ignacy, Gisolfi, Nicholas, Trฤbacz, Kacper, Dubrawski, Artur
We consider the problem of persistent client dropout in asynchronous Decentralized Federated Learning (DFL). Asynchronicity and decentralization obfuscate information about model updates among federation peers, making recovery from a client dropout difficult. Access to the number of learning epochs, data distributions, and all the information necessary to precisely reconstruct the missing neighbor's loss functions is limited. We show that obvious mitigations do not adequately address the problem and introduce adaptive strategies based on client reconstruction. We show that these strategies can effectively recover some performance loss caused by dropout. Our work focuses on asynchronous DFL with local regularization and differs substantially from that in the existing literature. We evaluate the proposed methods on tabular and image datasets, involve three DFL algorithms, and three data heterogeneity scenarios (iid, non-iid, class-focused non-iid). Our experiments show that the proposed adaptive strategies can be effective in maintaining robustness of federated learning, even if they do not reconstruct the missing client's data precisely. We also discuss the limitations and identify future avenues for tackling the problem of client dropout.
Deeply Supervised Multi-Task Autoencoder for Biological Brain Age estimation using three dimensional T$_1$-weighted magnetic resonance imaging
Accurate estimation of biological brain age from three dimensional (3D) T$_1$-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a critical imaging biomarker for identifying accelerated aging associated with neurodegenerative diseases. Effective brain age prediction necessitates training 3D models to leverage comprehensive insights from volumetric MRI scans, thereby fully capturing spatial anatomical context. However, optimizing deep 3D models remains challenging due to problems such as vanishing gradients. Furthermore, brain structural patterns differ significantly between sexes, which impacts aging trajectories and vulnerability to neurodegenerative diseases, thereby making sex classification crucial for enhancing the accuracy and generalizability of predictive models. To address these challenges, we propose a Deeply Supervised Multitask Autoencoder (DSMT-AE) framework for brain age estimation. DSMT-AE employs deep supervision, which involves applying supervisory signals at intermediate layers during training, to stabilize model optimization, and multitask learning to enhance feature representation. Specifically, our framework simultaneously optimizes brain age prediction alongside auxiliary tasks of sex classification and image reconstruction, thus effectively capturing anatomical and demographic variability to improve prediction accuracy. We extensively evaluate DSMT-AE on the Open Brain Health Benchmark (OpenBHB) dataset, the largest multisite neuroimaging cohort combining ten publicly available datasets. The results demonstrate that DSMT-AE achieves state-of-the-art performance and robustness across age and sex subgroups. Additionally, our ablation study confirms that each proposed component substantially contributes to the improved predictive accuracy and robustness of the overall architecture.
Oldie but Goodie: Re-illuminating Label Propagation on Graphs with Partially Observed Features
Yun, Sukwon, Liu, Xin, Oh, Yunhak, Lee, Junseok, Chen, Tianlong, Murata, Tsuyoshi, Park, Chanyoung
In real-world graphs, we often encounter missing feature situations where a few or the majority of node features, e.g., sensitive information, are missed. In such scenarios, directly utilizing Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) would yield sub-optimal results in downstream tasks such as node classification. Despite the emergence of a few GNN-based methods attempting to mitigate its missing situation, when only a few features are available, they rather perform worse than traditional structure-based models. To this end, we propose a novel framework that further illuminates the potential of classical Label Propagation (Oldie), taking advantage of Feature Propagation, especially when only a partial feature is available. Now called by GOODIE, it takes a hybrid approach to obtain embeddings from the Label Propagation branch and Feature Propagation branch. To do so, we first design a GNN-based decoder that enables the Label Propagation branch to output hidden embeddings that align with those of the FP branch. Then, GOODIE automatically captures the significance of structure and feature information thanks to the newly designed Structure-Feature Attention. Followed by a novel Pseudo-Label contrastive learning that differentiates the contribution of each positive pair within pseudo-labels originating from the LP branch, GOODIE outputs the final prediction for the unlabeled nodes. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our proposed model, GOODIE, outperforms the existing state-of-the-art methods not only when only a few features are available but also in abundantly available situations. Source code of GOODIE is available at: https://github.com/SukwonYun/GOODIE.
Federated Graph Unlearning
Ai, Yuming, Li, Xunkai, Chao, Jiaqi, Fan, Bowen, Wu, Zhengyu, Zhu, Yinlin, Li, Rong-Hua, Wang, Guoren
The demand for data privacy has led to the development of frameworks like Federated Graph Learning (FGL), which facilitate decentralized model training. However, a significant operational challenge in such systems is adhering to the right to be forgotten. This principle necessitates robust mechanisms for two distinct types of data removal: the selective erasure of specific entities and their associated knowledge from local subgraphs and the wholesale removal of a user's entire dataset and influence. Existing methods often struggle to fully address both unlearning requirements, frequently resulting in incomplete data removal or the persistence of residual knowledge within the system. This work introduces a unified framework, conceived to provide a comprehensive solution to these challenges. The proposed framework employs a bifurcated strategy tailored to the specific unlearning request. For fine-grained Meta Unlearning, it uses prototype gradients to direct the initial local forgetting process, which is then refined by generating adversarial graphs to eliminate any remaining data traces among affected clients. In the case of complete client unlearning, the framework utilizes adversarial graph generation exclusively to purge the departed client's contributions from the remaining network. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets validate the proposed approach. The framework achieves substantial improvements in model prediction accuracy across both client and meta-unlearning scenarios when compared to existing methods. Furthermore, additional studies confirm its utility as a plug-in module, where it materially enhances the predictive capabilities and unlearning effectiveness of other established methods.
Superior resilience to poisoning and amenability to unlearning in quantum machine learning
The remarkable success of artificial intelligence (AI) has placed it as a transformative force in science and society [1-3], yet the reliability of these powerful models is fundamentally contingent on the integrity of their training data. In real-world applications, datasets are often compromised by corruption, such as mislabeled examples or malicious poisoning attacks, which can severely impair a model's generalization, introduce dangerous biases, and create significant security vulnerabilities [4-7]. A closely related and increasingly urgent challenge is that of machine unlearning: the need to efficiently remove the influence of specific data from a trained model to comply with privacy regulations or to correct for erroneous information [8-14]. While retraining a model from scratch on a sanitized dataset offers a definitive solution, its prohibitive computational cost for large-scale systems makes it impractical, driving the search for more efficient alternatives. As the field of quantum computing evolves rapidly [15-17], quantum machine learning (QML) has emerged as a promising new paradigm with the potential to solve problems intractable for classical computers [18-29]. These models, often implemented as quantum neural networks (QNNs), leverage principles like superposition and entanglement to navigate vast computational spaces [30-47]. However, despite rapid theoretical and experimental progress, the behavior of quantum models in the face of real-world data imperfections remains a critical and largely unexplored frontier.