Statistical Learning
Prediction is not Explanation: Revisiting the Explanatory Capacity of Mapping Embeddings
Herasimchyk, Hanna, Abdelhalim, Alhassan, Laue, Sören, Regneri, Michaela
Understanding what knowledge is implicitly encoded in deep learning models is essential for improving the interpretability of AI systems. This paper examines common methods to explain the knowledge encoded in word embeddings, which are core elements of large language models (LLMs). These methods typically involve mapping embeddings onto collections of human-interpretable semantic features, known as feature norms. Prior work assumes that accurately predicting these semantic features from the word embeddings implies that the embeddings contain the corresponding knowledge. We challenge this assumption by demonstrating that prediction accuracy alone does not reliably indicate genuine feature-based interpretability. We show that these methods can successfully predict even random information, concluding that the results are predominantly determined by an algorithmic upper bound rather than meaningful semantic representation in the word embeddings. Consequently, comparisons between datasets based solely on prediction performance do not reliably indicate which dataset is better captured by the word embeddings. Our analysis illustrates that such mappings primarily reflect geometric similarity within vector spaces rather than indicating the genuine emergence of semantic properties.
In-Context Decision Making for Optimizing Complex AutoML Pipelines
Balef, Amir Rezaei, Eggensperger, Katharina
Combined Algorithm Selection and Hyperparameter Optimization (CASH) has been fundamental to traditional AutoML systems. However, with the advancements of pre-trained models, modern ML workflows go beyond hyperparameter optimization and often require fine-tuning, ensembling, and other adaptation techniques. While the core challenge of identifying the best-performing model for a downstream task remains, the increasing heterogeneity of ML pipelines demands novel AutoML approaches. This work extends the CASH framework to select and adapt modern ML pipelines. We propose PS-PFN to efficiently explore and exploit adapting ML pipelines by extending Posterior Sampling (PS) to the max k -armed bandit problem setup. PS-PFN leverages prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) to efficiently estimate the posterior distribution of the maximal value via in-context learning. We show how to extend this method to consider varying costs of pulling arms and to use different PFNs to model reward distributions individually per arm. Experimental results on one novel and two existing standard benchmark tasks demonstrate the superior performance of PS-PFN compared to other bandit and AutoML strategies.
Personalized Subgraph Federated Learning with Sheaf Collaboration
Liang, Wenfei, Zhao, Yanan, She, Rui, Li, Yiming, Tay, Wee Peng
Graph-structured data is prevalent in many applications. In subgraph federated learning (FL), this data is distributed across clients, each with a local subgraph. Personalized subgraph FL aims to develop a customized model for each client to handle diverse data distributions. However, performance variation across clients remains a key issue due to the heterogeneity of local subgraphs. To overcome the challenge, we propose FedSheafHN, a novel framework built on a sheaf collaboration mechanism to unify enhanced client descriptors with efficient personalized model generation. Specifically, FedSheafHN embeds each client's local subgraph into a server-constructed collaboration graph by leveraging graph-level embeddings and employing sheaf diffusion within the collaboration graph to enrich client representations. Subsequently, FedSheafHN generates customized client models via a server-optimized hypernetwork. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that FedSheafHN outperforms existing personalized subgraph FL methods on various graph datasets. Additionally, it exhibits fast model convergence and effectively generalizes to new clients.
Explainable Learning Rate Regimes for Stochastic Optimization
Modern machine learning is trained by stochastic gradient descent (SGD), whose performance critically depends on how the learning rate (LR) is adjusted and decreased over time. Yet existing LR regimes may be intricate, or need to tune one or more additional hyper-parameters manually whose bottlenecks include huge computational expenditure, time and power in practice. This work, in a natural and direct manner, clarifies how LR should be updated automatically only according to the intrinsic variation of stochastic gradients. An explainable LR regime by leveraging stochastic second-order algorithms is developed, behaving a similar pattern to heuristic algorithms but implemented simply without any parameter tuning requirement, where it is of an automatic procedure that LR should increase (decrease) as the norm of stochastic gradients decreases (increases). The resulting LR regime shows its efficiency, robustness, and scalability in different classical stochastic algorithms, containing SGD, SGDM, and SIGNSGD, on machine learning tasks.
Bounding Causal Effects and Counterfactuals
Causal inference often hinges on strong assumptions - such as no unmeasured confounding or perfect compliance - that are rarely satisfied in practice. Partial identification offers a principled alternative: instead of relying on unverifiable assumptions to estimate causal effects precisely, it derives bounds that reflect the uncertainty inherent in the data. Despite its theoretical appeal, partial identification remains underutilized in applied work, in part due to the fragmented nature of existing methods and the lack of practical guidance. This thesis addresses these challenges by systematically comparing a diverse set of bounding algorithms across multiple causal scenarios. We implement, extend, and unify state-of-the-art methods - including symbolic, optimization-based, and information-theoretic approaches - within a common evaluation framework. In particular, we propose an extension of a recently introduced entropy-bounded method, making it applicable to counterfactual queries such as the Probability of Necessity and Sufficiency (PNS). Our empirical study spans thousands of randomized simulations involving both discrete and continuous data-generating processes. We assess each method in terms of bound tightness, computational efficiency, and robustness to assumption violations. To support practitioners, we distill our findings into a practical decision tree for algorithm selection and train a machine learning model to predict the best-performing method based on observable data characteristics. All implementations are released as part of an open-source Python package, CausalBoundingEngine, which enables users to apply and compare bounding methods through a unified interface.
Understanding Distribution Structure on Calibrated Recommendation Systems
da Silva, Diego Correa, Boaventura, Denis Robson Dantas, Oliveira, Mayki dos Santos, da Silva, Eduardo Ferreira, Pires, Joel Machado, Durão, Frederico Araújo
--Traditional recommender systems aim to generate a recommendation list comprising the most relevant or similar items to the user's profile. These approaches can create recommendation lists that omit item genres from the less prominent areas of a user's profile, thereby undermining the user's experience. T o solve this problem, the calibrated recommendation system provides a guarantee of including less representative areas in the recommended list. The calibrated context works with three distributions. The first is from the user's profile, the second is from the candidate items, and the last is from the recommendation list. These distributions are G-dimensional, where G is the total number of genres in the system. This high dimensionality requires a different evaluation method, considering that traditional recommenders operate in a one-dimensional data space. In this sense, we implement fifteen models that help to understand how these distributions are structured. We evaluate the users' patterns in three datasets from the movie domain. The results indicate that the models of outlier detection provide a better understanding of the structures. The calibrated system creates recommendation lists that act similarly to traditional recommendation lists, allowing users to change their groups of preferences to the same degree. Commonly, traditional recommender systems generate recommendations with miscalibration [1]. Miscalibration means that the recommendation lists do not follow the user preferences distribution, instead suggesting items from user's dominant area of interest. It creates an overspecialized recommendation list in which the items from the less dominant area are overwhelmed. This effect puts the user in a filter bubble or an echo chamber problem [2]. For instance, when a specific area dominates the recommended list, the user likely has few other options to interact with, aside from items within that dominant area. Then, the subsequent lists are recommended, with the dominant area becoming more overspecialized. In recent years, calibrated recommendation systems have attracted attention [3]-[8] from the recommender system community to overcome this issue. This type of system demonstrates the capacity to improve several objectives, such as diversity [3], control of popularity bias [4], item coverage [5], precision [6], and the reduction of miscalibration [7]. To illustrate how calibrated recommendation works, consider a scenario: if a user's preferences distribution indicates Corresponding author is Diego Corr ˆ ea da Silva.
Classifying Clinical Outcome of Epilepsy Patients with Ictal Chirp Embeddings
Bahador, Nooshin, Lankarany, Milad
This study presents a pipeline leveraging t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) for interpretable visualizations of chirp features across diverse outcome scenarios. The dataset, comprising chirp-based temporal, spectral, and frequency metrics. Using t-SNE, local neighborhood relationships were preserved while addressing the crowding problem through Student t-distribution-based similarity optimization. Three classification tasks were formulated on the 2D t-SNE embeddings: (1) distinguishing clinical success from failure/no-resection, (2) separating high-difficulty from low-difficulty cases, and (3) identifying optimal cases, defined as successful outcomes with minimal clinical difficulty. Four classifiers, namely, Random Forests, Support Vector Machines, Logistic Regression, and k-Nearest Neighbors, were trained and evaluated using stratified 5-fold cross-validation. Across tasks, the Random Forest and k-NN classifiers demonstrated superior performance, achieving up to 88.8% accuracy in optimal case detection (successful outcomes with minimal clinical difficulty). Additionally, feature influence sensitivity maps were generated using SHAP explanations applied to model predicting t-SNE coordinates, revealing spatially localized feature importance within the embedding space. These maps highlighted how specific chirp attributes drive regional clustering and class separation, offering insights into the latent structure of the data. The integrated framework showcases the potential of interpretable embeddings and local feature attribution for clinical stratification and decision support.
Dynamic Design of Machine Learning Pipelines via Metalearning
Alcobaça, Edesio, de Carvalho, André C. P. L. F.
Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) has become an essential tool for democratizing machine learning (ML) by automating key aspects of model selection, hyperparameter tuning, and feature engineering [1, 2]. However, the efficiency of AutoML frameworks remains a significant challenge, as the search for optimal configurations is often computationally expensive [3-5]. Traditional search strategies, such as Random Search (RS) and Bayesian Optimization (BO), indiscriminately explore large search spaces, resulting in high resource consumption [3, 6, 7]. To address this challenge, we propose a metalearning approach that dynamically designs search spaces for an AutoML solution, reducing computational costs while maintaining competitive predictive performance. The proposed method leverages historical metaknowledge to identify and prioritize promising regions of the search space, enabling more efficient optimization. By predicting the performance of preprocessor-classifier combinations, a meta-model, induced using metalearning, can provide a warm-start advantage, accelerating the AutoML search process. This study evaluates the effectiveness of the proposed approach through an extensive set of experiments, analyzing both computational efficiency and predictive performance. According to the experimental results, the dynamically generated search spaces significantly reduce runtime, while maintaining high-quality solutions. In particular, the RS-mtl-95 configuration achieved an 89% reduction in runtime without compromising predictive performance.
Towards Unified Multimodal Financial Forecasting: Integrating Sentiment Embeddings and Market Indicators via Cross-Modal Attention
Khanna, Sarthak, Berger, Armin, Berghaus, David, Deusser, Tobias, Sparrenberg, Lorenz, Sifa, Rafet
We propose STONK (Stock Optimization using News Knowledge), a multimodal framework integrating numerical market indicators with sentiment-enriched news embeddings to improve daily stock-movement prediction. By combining numerical & textual embeddings via feature concatenation and cross-modal attention, our unified pipeline addresses limitations of isolated analyses. Backtesting shows STONK outperforms numeric-only baselines. A comprehensive evaluation of fusion strategies and model configurations offers evidence-based guidance for scalable multimodal financial forecasting. Source code is available on GitHub
The Course Difficulty Analysis Cookbook
Baucks, Frederik, Schmucker, Robin, Wiskott, Laurenz
Curriculum analytics (CA) studies curriculum structure and student data to ensure the quality of educational programs. An essential aspect is studying course properties, which involves assigning each course a representative difficulty value. This is critical for several aspects of CA, such as quality control (e.g., monitoring variations over time), course comparisons (e.g., articulation), and course recommendation (e.g., advising). Measuring course difficulty requires careful consideration of multiple factors: First, when difficulty measures are sensitive to the performance level of enrolled students, it can bias interpretations by overlooking student diversity. By assessing difficulty independently of enrolled students' performances, we can reduce the risk of bias and enable fair, representative assessments of difficulty. Second, from a measurement theoretic perspective, the measurement must be reliable and valid to provide a robust basis for subsequent analyses. Third, difficulty measures should account for covariates, such as the characteristics of individual students within a diverse populations (e.g., transfer status). In recent years, various notions of difficulty have been proposed. This paper provides the first comprehensive review and comparison of existing approaches for assessing course difficulty based on grade point averages and latent trait modeling. It further offers a hands-on tutorial on model selection, assumption checking, and practical CA applications. These applications include monitoring course difficulty over time and detecting courses with disparate outcomes between distinct groups of students (e.g., dropouts vs. graduates), ultimately aiming to promote high-quality, fair, and equitable learning experiences. To support further research and application, we provide an open-source software package and artificial datasets, facilitating reproducibility and adoption.