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 Statistical Learning


CIGaRS I: Combined simulation-based inference from SNae Ia and host photometry

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Using type Ia supernovae (SNae Ia) as cosmological probes requires empirical corrections, which correlate with their host environment. We present a unified Bayesian hierarchical model designed to infer, from purely photometric observations, the intrinsic dependence of SN Ia brightness on progenitor properties (metallicity & age), the delay-time distribution (DTD) that governs their rate as a function of age, and cosmology, as well as the redshifts of all hosts. The model incorporates physics-based prescriptions for star formation and chemical evolution from Prospector-beta, dust extinction of both galaxy and SN light, and observational selection effects. We show with simulations that intrinsic dependences on metallicity and age have distinct observational signatures, with metallicity mimicking the well-known step of SN Ia magnitudes across a host stellar mass of $\approx 10^{10} M_{\odot}$. We then demonstrate neural simulation-based inference of all model parameters from mock observations of ~16 000 SNae Ia and their hosts up to redshift 0.9. Our joint physics-based approach delivers robust and precise photometric redshifts (<0.01 median scatter) and improved cosmological constraints, unlocking the full power of photometric data and paving the way for an end-to-end simulation-based analysis pipeline in the LSST era.


NEAT: Concept driven Neuron Attribution in LLMs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Locating neurons that are responsible for final predictions is important for opening the black-box large language models and understanding the inside mechanisms. Previous studies have tried to find mechanisms that operate at the neuron level but these methods fail to represent a concept and there is also scope for further optimization of compute required. In this paper, with the help of concept vectors, we propose a method for locating significant neurons that are responsible for representing certain concepts and term those neurons as concept neurons. If the number of neurons is n and the number of examples is m, we reduce the number of forward passes required from O(n*m) to just O(n) compared to the previous works and hence optimizing the time and computation required over previous works. We also compare our method with several baselines and previous methods and our results demonstrate better performance than most of the methods and are more optimal when compared to the state-of-the-art method. We, as part of our ablation studies, also try to optimize the search for the concept neurons by involving clustering methods. Finally, we apply our methods to find, turn off the neurons that we find, and analyze its implications in parts of hate speech and bias in LLMs, and we also evaluate our bias part in terms of Indian context. Our methodology, analysis and explanations facilitate understating of neuron-level responsibility for more broader and human-like concepts and also lay a path for future research in this direction of finding concept neurons and intervening them.


Mining Mental Health Signals: A Comparative Study of Four Machine Learning Methods for Depression Detection from Social Media Posts in Sorani Kurdish

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Depression is a common mental health condition that can lead to hopelessness, loss of interest, self-harm, and even suicide. Early detection is challenging due to individuals not self-reporting or seeking timely clinical help. With the rise of social media, users increasingly express emotions online, offering new opportunities for detection through text analysis. While prior research has focused on languages such as English, no studies exist for Sorani Kurdish. This work presents a machine learning and Natural Language Processing (NLP) approach to detect depression in Sorani tweets. A set of depression-related keywords was developed with expert input to collect 960 public tweets from X (Twitter platform). The dataset was annotated into three classes: Shows depression, Not-show depression, and Suspicious by academics and final year medical students at the University of Kurdistan Hewlรชr. Four supervised models, including Support Vector Machines, Multinomial Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, and Random Forest, were trained and evaluated, with Random Forest achieving the highest performance accuracy and F1-score of 80%. This study establishes a baseline for automated depression detection in Kurdish language contexts.


SDEC: Semantic Deep Embedded Clustering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The high dimensional and semantically complex nature of textual Big data presents significant challenges for text clustering, which frequently lead to suboptimal groupings when using conventional techniques like k-means or hierarchical clustering. This work presents Semantic Deep Embedded Clustering (SDEC), an unsupervised text clustering framework that combines an improved autoencoder with transformer-based embeddings to overcome these challenges. This novel method preserves semantic relationships during data reconstruction by combining Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Cosine Similarity Loss (CSL) within an autoencoder. Furthermore, a semantic refinement stage that takes advantage of the contextual richness of transformer embeddings is used by SDEC to further improve a clustering layer with soft cluster assignments and distributional loss. The capabilities of SDEC are demonstrated by extensive testing on five benchmark datasets: AG News, Yahoo! Answers, DBPedia, Reuters 2, and Reuters 5. The framework not only outperformed existing methods with a clustering accuracy of 85.7% on AG News and set a new benchmark of 53.63% on Yahoo! Answers, but also showed robust performance across other diverse text corpora. These findings highlight the significant improvements in accuracy and semantic comprehension of text data provided by SDEC's advances in unsupervised text clustering.


GRAFT: Gradient-Aware Fast MaxVol Technique for Dynamic Data Sampling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Training modern neural networks on large datasets is computationally and environmentally costly. We introduce GRAFT, a scalable in-training subset selection method that (i) extracts a low-rank feature representation for each batch, (ii) applies a Fast MaxVol sampler to select a small, diverse subset that spans the batch's dominant subspace, and (iii) dynamically adjusts the subset size using a gradient-approximation criterion. By operating in low-rank subspaces and training on carefully chosen examples instead of full batches, GRAFT preserves the training trajectory while reducing wall-clock time, energy consumption, and $\mathrm{CO}_2$ emissions. Across multiple benchmarks, GRAFT matches or exceeds recent selection baselines in both accuracy and efficiency, providing a favorable trade-off between accuracy, efficiency, and emissions.


Interpreting Time Series Forecasts with LIME and SHAP: A Case Study on the Air Passengers Dataset

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Time-series forecasting underpins critical decisions across aviation, energy, retail and health. Classical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models offer interpretability via coefficients but struggle with nonlinearities, whereas tree-based machine-learning models such as XGBoost deliver high accuracy but are often opaque. This paper presents a unified framework for interpreting time-series forecasts using local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) and SHapley additive exPlanations (SHAP). We convert a univariate series into a leakage-free supervised learning problem, train a gradient-boosted tree alongside an ARIMA baseline and apply post-hoc explainability. Using the Air Passengers dataset as a case study, we show that a small set of lagged features -- particularly the twelve-month lag -- and seasonal encodings explain most forecast variance. We contribute: (i) a methodology for applying LIME and SHAP to time series without violating chronology; (ii) theoretical exposition of the underlying algorithms; (iii) empirical evaluation with extensive analysis; and (iv) guidelines for practitioners.


Multi-Cache Enhanced Prototype Learning for Test-Time Generalization of Vision-Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In zero-shot setting, test-time adaptation adjusts pre-trained models using unlabeled data from the test phase to enhance performance on unknown test distributions. Existing cache-enhanced TTA methods rely on a low-entropy criterion to select samples for prototype construction, assuming intra-class compactness. However, low-entropy samples may be unreliable under distribution shifts, and the resulting prototypes may not ensure compact intra-class distributions. This study identifies a positive correlation between cache-enhanced performance and intra-class compactness. Based on this observation, we propose a Multi-Cache enhanced Prototype-based Test-Time Adaptation (MCP) featuring three caches: an entropy cache for initializing prototype representations with low-entropy samples, an align cache for integrating visual and textual information to achieve compact intra-class distributions, and a negative cache for prediction calibration using high-entropy samples. We further developed MCP++, a framework incorporating cross-modal prototype alignment and residual learning, introducing prototype residual fine-tuning. Comparative and ablation experiments across 15 downstream tasks demonstrate that the proposed method and framework achieve state-of-the-art generalization performance. Project Page available at: https://zhaihaotian.github.io/MCP-ICCV25/


DIDS: Domain Impact-aware Data Sampling for Large Language Model Training

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) are commonly trained on multi-domain datasets, where domain sampling strategies significantly impact model performance due to varying domain importance across downstream tasks. Existing approaches for optimizing domain-level sampling strategies struggle with maintaining intra-domain consistency and accurately measuring domain impact. In this paper, we present Domain Impact-aware Data Sampling (DIDS). To ensure intra-domain consistency, a gradient clustering algorithm is proposed to group training data based on their learning effects, where a proxy language model and dimensionality reduction are employed to reduce computational overhead. To accurately measure domain impact, we develop a Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) guided metric that quantifies how domain-specific parameter updates affect the model's output distributions on downstream tasks, with theoretical guarantees. Furthermore, to determine optimal sampling ratios, DIDS combines both the FIM-guided domain impact assessment and loss learning trajectories that indicate domain-specific potential, while accounting for diminishing marginal returns. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DIDS achieves 3.4% higher average performance while maintaining comparable training efficiency. The code is available at https://github.com/shiweijiezero/DIDS.


Mirror, Mirror of the Flow: How Does Regularization Shape Implicit Bias?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Implicit bias plays an important role in explaining how overparameterized models generalize well. Explicit regularization like weight decay is often employed in addition to prevent overfitting. While both concepts have been studied separately, in practice, they often act in tandem. Understanding their interplay is key to controlling the shape and strength of implicit bias, as it can be modified by explicit regularization. To this end, we incorporate explicit regularization into the mirror flow framework and analyze its lasting effects on the geometry of the training dynamics, covering three distinct effects: positional bias, type of bias, and range shrinking. Our analytical approach encompasses a broad class of problems, including sparse coding, matrix sensing, single-layer attention, and LoRA, for which we demonstrate the utility of our insights. To exploit the lasting effect of regularization and highlight the potential benefit of dynamic weight decay schedules, we propose to switch off weight decay during training, which can improve generalization, as we demonstrate in experiments.


Fair and efficient contribution valuation for vertical federated learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Federated learning is an emerging technology for training machine learning models across decentralized data sources without sharing data. Vertical federated learning, also known as feature-based federated learning, applies to scenarios where data sources have the same sample IDs but different feature sets. To ensure fairness among data owners, it is critical to objectively assess the contributions from different data sources and compensate the corresponding data owners accordingly. The Shapley value is a provably fair contribution valuation metric originating from cooperative game theory. However, its straight-forward computation requires extensively retraining a model on each potential combination of data sources, leading to prohibitively high communication and computation overheads due to multiple rounds of federated learning. To tackle this challenge, we propose a contribution valuation metric called vertical federated Shapley value (VerFedSV) based on the classic Shapley value. We show that VerFedSV not only satisfies many desirable properties of fairness but is also efficient to compute. Moreover, VerFedSV can be adapted to both synchronous and asynchronous vertical federated learning algorithms. Both theoretical analysis and extensive experimental results demonstrate the fairness, efficiency, adaptability, and effectiveness of VerFedSV.