Statistical Learning
Automating the Deep Space Network Data Systems; A Case Study in Adaptive Anomaly Detection through Agentic AI
Chou, Evan J., Locke, Lisa S., Soldan, Harvey M.
The Deep Space Network (DSN) is NASA's largest network of antenna facilities that generate a large volume of multivariate time - series data. These facilities, situated at Canberra - Australia, Madrid - Spain, and Goldstone - California, contain DSN antennas and transmitters that undergo degradation over long periods of time, which may cause costly disruptions to the data flow and threaten the earth - connection of dozens of spacecraft that rely on the Deep Space Network for their lifeline. The purpose of this study was to experiment with different methods and tools that would be able to assist JPL engineers with directly pinpointing anomalies and DSN equipment degradation through collected data, and continue conducting maintenance and operations of the DSN for future space missions around our universe. As such, we have researched various machine learning techniques and architectures that can fully reconstruct data through predictive analysis, and determine anomalous data entries within real - time datasets through statistical computations and thresholds . On top of the fully trained and tested machine learning models, we have also integrated the use of a reinforcement learning subsystem that classifies identified anomalies based on severity level and a Large Language Model that labels an explanation for each anomalous data entry, all of which can be improved and fine - tuned over time through human feedback /input. Specifically, for the DSN transmitters, we have also implemented a full data pipeline system that connects the data extraction, parsing, and pro ces sing workflow all together as there was no coherent program or script for performing these tasks before. Using this data pipeline system, we were able to then also connect the models trained from DSN an tenna data, completing the data workflow for DSN anomaly detection . This was all wrapped around and further connected by an agentic AI system, where complex reasoning was utilized to determine the classifications and predictions of anomalous data .
Dynamic Low-rank Approximation of Full-Matrix Preconditioner for Training Generalized Linear Models
Matveeva, Tatyana, Katrutsa, Aleksandr, Frolov, Evgeny
Adaptive gradient methods like Adagrad and its variants are widespread in large-scale optimization. However, their use of diagonal preconditioning matrices limits the ability to capture parameter correlations. Full-matrix adaptive methods, approximating the exact Hessian, can model these correlations and may enable faster convergence. At the same time, their computational and memory costs are often prohibitive for large-scale models. To address this limitation, we propose AdaGram, an optimizer that enables efficient full-matrix adaptive gradient updates. To reduce memory and computational overhead, we utilize fast symmetric factorization for computing the preconditioned update direction at each iteration. Additionally, we maintain the low-rank structure of a preconditioner along the optimization trajectory using matrix integrator methods. Numerical experiments on standard machine learning tasks show that AdaGram converges faster or matches the performance of diagonal adaptive optimizers when using rank five and smaller rank approximations. This demonstrates AdaGram's potential as a scalable solution for adaptive optimization in large models.
ImmunoAI: Accelerated Antibody Discovery Using Gradient-Boosted Machine Learning with Thermodynamic-Hydrodynamic Descriptors and 3D Geometric Interface Topology
Shivakumar, Shawnak, Sandora, Matthew
Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) poses serious risks to pediatric, elderly, and immunocompromised populations. Traditional antibody discovery pipelines require 10-12 months, limiting their applicability for rapid outbreak response. This project introduces ImmunoAI, a machine learning framework that accelerates antibody discovery by predicting high-affinity candidates using gradient-boosted models trained on thermodynamic, hydrodynamic, and 3D topological interface descriptors. A dataset of 213 antibody-antigen complexes was curated to extract geometric and physicochemical features, and a LightGBM regressor was trained to predict binding affinity with high precision. The model reduced the antibody candidate search space by 89%, and fine-tuning on 117 SARS-CoV-2 binding pairs further reduced Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) from 1.70 to 0.92. In the absence of an experimental structure for the hMPV A2.2 variant, AlphaFold2 was used to predict its 3D structure. The fine-tuned model identified two optimal antibodies with predicted picomolar affinities targeting key mutation sites (G42V and E96K), making them excellent candidates for experimental testing. In summary, ImmunoAI shortens design cycles and enables faster, structure-informed responses to viral outbreaks.
Normalisation of SWIFT Message Counterparties with Feature Extraction and Clustering
Schoinas, Thanasis, Guinard, Benjamin, Esbati, Diba, Chalk, Richard
Short text clustering is a known use case in the text analytics community. When the structure and content falls in the natural language domain e.g. Twitter posts or instant messages, then natural language techniques can be used, provided texts are of sufficient length to allow for use of (pre)trained models to extract meaningful information, such as part-of-speech or topic annotations. However, natural language models are not suitable for clustering transaction counterparties, as they are found in bank payment messaging systems, such as SWIFT. The manually typed tags are typically physical or legal entity details, which lack sentence structure, while containing all the variations and noise that manual entry introduces. This leaves a gap in an investigator or counter-fraud professional's toolset when looking to augment their knowledge of payment flow originator and beneficiary entities and trace funds and assets. A gap that vendors traditionally try to close with fuzzy matching tools. With these considerations in mind, we are proposing a hybrid string similarity, topic modelling, hierarchical clustering and rule-based pipeline to facilitate clustering of transaction counterparties, also catering for unknown number of expected clusters. We are also devising metrics to supplement the evaluation of the approach, based on the well-known measures of precision and recall. Testing on a real-life labelled dataset demonstrates significantly improved performance over a baseline rule-based ('keyword') approach. The approach retains most of the interpretability found in rule-based systems, as the former adds an additional level of cluster refinement to the latter. The resulting workflow reduces the need for manual review. When only a subset of the population needs to be investigated, such as in sanctions investigations, the approach allows for better control of the risks of missing entity variations.
Dimension Agnostic Testing of Survey Data Credibility through the Lens of Regression
Basu, Debabrota, Chakraborty, Sourav, Chanda, Debarshi, Das, Buddha Dev, Ghosh, Arijit, Ray, Arnab
Assessing whether a sample survey credibly represents the population is a critical question for ensuring the validity of downstream research. Generally, this problem reduces to estimating the distance between two high-dimensional distributions, which typically requires a number of samples that grows exponentially with the dimension. However, depending on the model used for data analysis, the conclusions drawn from the data may remain consistent across different underlying distributions. In this context, we propose a task-based approach to assess the credibility of sampled surveys. Specifically, we introduce a model-specific distance metric to quantify this notion of credibility. We also design an algorithm to verify the credibility of survey data in the context of regression models. Notably, the sample complexity of our algorithm is independent of the data dimension. This efficiency stems from the fact that the algorithm focuses on verifying the credibility of the survey data rather than reconstructing the underlying regression model. Furthermore, we show that if one attempts to verify credibility by reconstructing the regression model, the sample complexity scales linearly with the dimensionality of the data. We prove the theoretical correctness of our algorithm and numerically demonstrate our algorithm's performance.
Inferring processes within dynamic forest models using hybrid modeling
Pichler, Maximilian, Kรคber, Yannek
Modeling forest dynamics under novel climatic conditions requires a careful balance between process-based understanding and empirical flexibility. Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVM) represent ecological processes mechanistically, but their performance is prone to misspecified assumptions about functional forms. Inferring the structure of these processes and their functional forms correctly from data remains a major challenge because current approaches, such as plug-in estimators, have proven ineffective. We introduce Forest Informed Neural Networks (FINN), a hybrid modeling approach that combines a forest gap model with deep neural networks (DNN). FINN replaces processes with DNNs, which are then calibrated alongside the other mechanistic components in one unified step. In a case study on the Barro Colorado Island 50-ha plot we demonstrate that replacing the growth process with a DNN improves predictive performance and succession trajectories compared to a mechanistic version of FINN. Furthermore, we discovered that the DNN learned an ecologically plausible, improved functional form of the growth process, which we extracted from the DNN using explainable AI. In conclusion, our new hybrid modeling approach offers a versatile opportunity to infer forest dynamics from data and to improve forecasts of ecosystem trajectories under unprecedented environmental change.
Stochastic Gradients under Nuisances
Yu, Facheng, Mehta, Ronak, Luedtke, Alex, Harchaoui, Zaid
Stochastic gradient optimization is the dominant learning paradigm for a variety of scenarios, from classical supervised learning to modern self-supervised learning. We consider stochastic gradient algorithms for learning problems whose objectives rely on unknown nuisance parameters, and establish non-asymptotic convergence guarantees. Our results show that, while the presence of a nuisance can alter the optimum and upset the optimization trajectory, the classical stochastic gradient algorithm may still converge under appropriate conditions, such as Neyman orthogonality. Moreover, even when Neyman orthogonality is not satisfied, we show that an algorithm variant with approximately orthogonalized updates (with an approximately orthogonalized gradient oracle) may achieve similar convergence rates. Examples from orthogonal statistical learning/double machine learning and causal inference are discussed.
Latent Factor Point Processes for Patient Representation in Electronic Health Records
Knight, Parker, Zhou, Doudou, Xia, Zongqi, Cai, Tianxi, Lu, Junwei
Electronic health records (EHR) contain valuable longitudinal patient-level information, yet most statistical methods reduce the irregular timing of EHR codes into simple counts, thereby discarding rich temporal structure. Existing temporal models often impose restrictive parametric assumptions or are tailored to code level rather than patient-level tasks. We propose the latent factor point process model, which represents code occurrences as a high-dimensional point process whose conditional intensity is driven by a low dimensional latent Poisson process. This low-rank structure reflects the clinical reality that thousands of codes are governed by a small number of underlying disease processes, while enabling statistically efficient estimation in high dimensions. Building on this model, we introduce the Fourier-Eigen embedding, a patient representation constructed from the spectral density matrix of the observed process. We establish theoretical guarantees showing that these embeddings efficiently capture subgroup-specific temporal patterns for downstream classification and clustering. Simulations and an application to an Alzheimer's disease EHR cohort demonstrate the practical advantages of our approach in uncovering clinically meaningful heterogeneity.
Distributed optimization: designed for federated learning
Guo, Wenyou, Qu, Ting, Pan, Chunrong, Huang, George Q.
--Federated Learning (FL), as a distributed collaborative Machine Learning (ML) framework under privacy-preserving constraints, has garnered increasing research attention in cross-organizational data collaboration scenarios. This paper proposes a class of distributed optimization algorithms based on the augmented Lagrangian technique, designed to accommodate diverse communication topologies in both centralized and decentralized FL settings. Furthermore, we develop multiple termination criteria and parameter update mechanisms to enhance computational efficiency, accompanied by rigorous theoretical guarantees of convergence. By generalizing the augmented Lagrangian relaxation through the incorporation of proximal relaxation and quadratic approximation, our framework systematically recovers a broad of classical unconstrained optimization methods, including proximal algorithm, classic gradient descent, and stochastic gradient descent, among others. Notably, the convergence properties of these methods can be naturally derived within the proposed theoretical framework. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithm exhibits strong performance in large-scale settings with significant statistical heterogeneity across clients. Such formulations, commonly referred to as consensus optimization problems, find widespread applications in interdisciplinary domains including distributed ML, collaborative sensing in sensor networks, and distributed parameter estimation [1]. This work was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) under Grant 52375498, and in part by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under Grant 21623111. Ting Qu is with Guangdong International Cooperation Base of Science and Technology for GBA Smart Logistics, Jinan University, Zhuhai 519070, China, also with School of Intelligent Systems Science and Engineering, Jinan University, Zhuhai 519070, China, and also with Institute of Physical Internet, Jinan University, Zhuhai 519070, China (e-mail: quting@jnu.edu.cn).
Transfer Learning for Classification under Decision Rule Drift with Application to Optimal Individualized Treatment Rule Estimation
In this paper, we extend the transfer learning classification framework from regression function-based methods to decision rules. We propose a novel methodology for modeling posterior drift through Bayes decision rules. By exploiting the geometric transformation of the Bayes decision boundary, our method reformulates the problem as a low-dimensional empirical risk minimization problem. Under mild regularity conditions, we establish the consistency of our estimators and derive the risk bounds. Moreover, we illustrate the broad applicability of our method by adapting it to the estimation of optimal individualized treatment rules. Extensive simulation studies and analyses of real-world data further demonstrate both superior performance and robustness of our approach.