Uplift models play a critical role in modern marketing applications to help understand the incremental benefits of interventions and identify optimal targeting strategies. A variety of techniques exist for building uplift models, and it is essential to understand the model differences in the context of intended applications. The uplift curve is a widely adopted tool for assessing uplift model performance on the selection universe when observations are available for the entire population. However, when it is uneconomical or infeasible to select the entire population, it becomes difficult or even impossible to estimate the uplift curve without appropriate sampling design. To the best of our knowledge, no prior work has addressed uncertainty quantification of uplift curve estimates, which is essential for model comparisons. We propose a two-step sampling procedure and a resampling-based approach to compare uplift models with uncertainty quantification, examine the proposed method via simulations and real data applications, and conclude with a discussion.

The rapid growth of private car ownership has worsened the urban parking predicament, underscoring the need for accurate and effective parking availability prediction to support urban planning and management. To address key limitations in modeling spatio-temporal dependencies and exploiting multi-source data for parking availability prediction, this study proposes a novel approach with SST-iTransformer. The methodology leverages K-means clustering to establish parking cluster zones (PCZs), extracting and integrating traffic demand characteristics from various transportation modes (i.e., metro, bus, online ride-hailing, and taxi) associated with the targeted parking lots. Upgraded on vanilla iTransformer, SST-iTransformer integrates masking-reconstruction-based pretext tasks for self-supervised spatio-temporal representation learning, and features an innovative dual-branch attention mechanism: Series Attention captures long-term temporal dependencies via patching operations, while Channel Attention models cross-variate interactions through inverted dimensions. Extensive experiments using real-world data from Chengdu, China, demonstrate that SST-iTransformer outperforms baseline deep learning models (including Informer, Autoformer, Crossformer, and iTransformer), achieving state-of-the-art performance with the lowest mean squared error (MSE) and competitive mean absolute error (MAE). Comprehensive ablation studies quantitatively reveal the relative importance of different data sources: incorporating ride-hailing data provides the largest performance gains, followed by taxi, whereas fixed-route transit features (bus/metro) contribute marginally. Spatial correlation analysis further confirms that excluding historical data from correlated parking lots within PCZs leads to substantial performance degradation, underscoring the importance of modeling spatial dependencies.

Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) is a kernel-based and non-parametric particle method for sampling from a target distribution, such as in Bayesian inference and other machine learning tasks. Different from other particle methods, SVGD does not require estimating the score, which is the gradient of the log-density. However, in practice, SVGD can be slow compared to score-estimation-based sampling algorithms. To design a fast and efficient high-dimensional sampling algorithm with the advantages of SVGD, we introduce accelerated SVGD (ASVGD), based on an accelerated gradient flow in a metric space of probability densities following Nesterov's method. We then derive a momentum-based discrete-time sampling algorithm, which evolves a set of particles deterministically. To stabilize the particles' position update, we also include a Wasserstein metric regularization. This paper extends the conference version \cite{SL2025}. For the bilinear kernel and Gaussian target distributions, we study the kernel parameter and damping parameters with an optimal convergence rate of the proposed dynamics. This is achieved by analyzing the linearized accelerated gradient flows at the equilibrium. Interestingly, the optimal parameter is a constant, which does not depend on the covariance of the target distribution. For the generalized kernel functions, such as the Gaussian kernel, numerical examples with varied target distributions demonstrate the effectiveness of ASVGD compared to SVGD and other popular sampling methods. Furthermore, we show that in the setting of Bayesian neural networks, ASVGD outperforms SVGD significantly in terms of log-likelihood and total iteration times.

In many application domains, networks are observed with node-level features. In such settings, a common problem is to assess whether or not nodal covariates are correlated with the network structure itself. Here, we present four novel methods for addressing this problem. Two of these are based on a linear model relating node-level covariates to latent node-level variables that drive network structure. The other two are based on applying canonical correlation analysis to the node features and network structure, avoiding the linear modeling assumptions. We provide theoretical guarantees for all four methods when the observed network is generated according to a low-rank latent space model endowed with node-level covariates, which we allow to be high-dimensional. Our methods are computationally cheaper and require fewer modeling assumptions than previous approaches to network dependency testing. We demonstrate and compare the performance of our novel methods on both simulated and real-world data.

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables Bayesian analysis when the likelihood is intractable but model simulations are available. Recent advances in statistics and machine learning, including Approximate Bayesian Computation and deep generative models, have expanded the applicability of SBI, yet these methods often face challenges in moderate to high-dimensional parameter spaces. Motivated by the success of gradient-based Monte Carlo methods in Bayesian sampling, we propose a novel SBI method that integrates score matching with Langevin dynamics to explore complex posterior landscapes more efficiently in such settings. Our approach introduces tailored score-matching procedures for SBI, including a localization scheme that reduces simulation costs and an architectural regularization that embeds the statistical structure of log-likelihood scores to improve score-matching accuracy. We provide theoretical analysis of the method and illustrate its practical benefits on benchmark tasks and on more challenging problems in moderate to high dimensions, where it performs favorably compared to existing approaches.

We introduce Prob-GParareal, a probabilistic extension of the GParareal algorithm designed to provide uncertainty quantification for the Parallel-in-Time (PinT) solution of (ordinary and partial) differential equations (ODEs, PDEs). The method employs Gaussian processes (GPs) to model the Parareal correction function, as GParareal does, further enabling the propagation of numerical uncertainty across time and yielding probabilistic forecasts of system's evolution. Furthermore, Prob-GParareal accommodates probabilistic initial conditions and maintains compatibility with classical numerical solvers, ensuring its straightforward integration into existing Parareal frameworks. Here, we first conduct a theoretical analysis of the computational complexity and derive error bounds of Prob-GParareal. Then, we numerically demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the proposed algorithm on five benchmark ODE systems, including chaotic, stiff, and bifurcation problems. To showcase the flexibility and potential scalability of the proposed algorithm, we also consider Prob-nnGParareal, a variant obtained by replacing the GPs in Parareal with the nearest-neighbors GPs, illustrating its increased performance on an additional PDE example. This work bridges a critical gap in the development of probabilistic counterparts to established PinT methods.

Over the past decade, the use of machine learning (ML) models in healthcare applications has rapidly increased. Despite high performance, modern ML models do not always capture patterns the end user requires. For example, a model may predict a non-monotonically decreasing relationship between cancer stage and survival, keeping all other features fixed. In this paper, we present a reproducible framework for investigating this misalignment between model behavior and clinical experiential learning, focusing on the effects of underspecification of modern ML pipelines. In a prostate cancer outcome prediction case study, we first identify and address these inconsistencies by incorporating clinical knowledge, collected by a survey, via constraints into the ML model, and subsequently analyze the impact on model performance and behavior across degrees of underspecification. The approach shows that aligning the ML model with clinical experiential learning is possible without compromising performance. Motivated by recent literature in generative AI, we further examine the feasibility of a feedback-driven alignment approach in non-generative AI clinical risk prediction models through a randomized experiment with clinicians. Our findings illustrate that, by eliciting clinicians' model preferences using our proposed methodology, the larger the difference in how the constrained and unconstrained models make predictions for a patient, the more apparent the difference is in clinical interpretation.

Current Ethereum fraud detection methods rely on context-independent, numerical transaction sequences, failing to capture semantic of account transactions. Furthermore, the pervasive homogeneity in Ethereum transaction records renders it challenging to learn discriminative account embeddings. Moreover, current self-supervised graph learning methods primarily learn node representations through graph reconstruction, resulting in suboptimal performance for node-level tasks like fraud account detection, while these methods also encounter scalability challenges. To tackle these challenges, we propose LMAE4Eth, a multi-view learning framework that fuses transaction semantics, masked graph embedding, and expert knowledge. We first propose a transaction-token contrastive language model (TxCLM) that transforms context-independent numerical transaction records into logically cohesive linguistic representations. To clearly characterize the semantic differences between accounts, we also use a token-aware contrastive learning pre-training objective together with the masked transaction model pre-training objective, learns high-expressive account representations. We then propose a masked account graph autoencoder (MAGAE) using generative self-supervised learning, which achieves superior node-level account detection by focusing on reconstructing account node features. To enable MAGAE to scale for large-scale training, we propose to integrate layer-neighbor sampling into the graph, which reduces the number of sampled vertices by several times without compromising training quality. Finally, using a cross-attention fusion network, we unify the embeddings of TxCLM and MAGAE to leverage the benefits of both. We evaluate our method against 21 baseline approaches on three datasets. Experimental results show that our method outperforms the best baseline by over 10% in F1-score on two of the datasets.

Multi-variate time series (MTS) forecasting is crucial for various applications. Existing methods have shown promising results owing to their strong ability to capture intra- and inter-variate dependencies. However, these methods often overlook lead-lag dependencies at multiple grouping scales, failing to capture hierarchical lead-lag effects in complex systems. To this end, we propose MillGNN, a novel \underline{g}raph \underline{n}eural \underline{n}etwork-based method that learns \underline{m}ult\underline{i}ple grouping scale \underline{l}ead-\underline{l}ag dependencies for MTS forecasting, which can comprehensively capture lead-lag effects considering variate-wise and group-wise dynamics and decays. Specifically, MillGNN introduces two key innovations: (1) a scale-specific lead-lag graph learning module that integrates cross-correlation coefficients and dynamic decaying features derived from real-time inputs and time lags to learn lead-lag dependencies for each scale, which can model evolving lead-lag dependencies with statistical interpretability and data-driven flexibility; (2) a hierarchical lead-lag message passing module that passes lead-lag messages at multiple grouping scales in a structured way to simultaneously propagate intra- and inter-scale lead-lag effects, which can capture multi-scale lead-lag effects with a balance of comprehensiveness and efficiency. Experimental results on 11 datasets demonstrate the superiority of MillGNN for long-term and short-term MTS forecasting, compared with 16 state-of-the-art methods.

Community detection is one of the fundamental problems in data science which consists of partitioning nodes into disjoint communities. We present a game-theoretic perspective on the Constant Potts Model (CPM) for partitioning networks into disjoint communities, emphasizing its efficiency, robustness, and accuracy. Efficiency: We reinterpret CPM as a potential hedonic game by decomposing its global Hamiltonian into local utility functions, where the local utility gain of each agent matches the corresponding increase in global utility. Leveraging this equivalence, we prove that local optimization of the CPM objective via better-response dynamics converges in pseudo-polynomial time to an equilibrium partition. Robustness: We introduce and relate two stability criteria: a strict criterion based on a novel notion of robustness, requiring nodes to simultaneously maximize neighbors and minimize non-neighbors within communities, and a relaxed utility function based on a weighted sum of these objectives, controlled by a resolution parameter. Accuracy: In community tracking scenarios, where initial partitions are used to bootstrap the Leiden algorithm with partial ground-truth information, our experiments reveal that robust partitions yield higher accuracy in recovering ground-truth communities.