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 Statistical Learning


Machine Learning Framework for Audio-Based Equipment Condition Monitoring: A Comparative Study of Classification Algorithms

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Personal use of this material is permitted. This work has been accepted for publication in the proceedings of the 2025 Advances in Science and Engineering Technology International Conferences (ASET). Zaheeruddin Ahmed Department of Computer Science & Engineering Manipal Academy of Higher Education Dubai, UAE zaheeruddin@manipaldubai.com Abstract -- Audio - based equipment condition monitoring suffers from a lack of standardized methodologies for algorithm selection, hindering reproducible research. Leveraging a rich 127 - feature set across time, frequency, and time - frequency domains, our methodology is validated on both synthetic and real - world datasets. Results demonstrate that an ensemble method achieves superior performance (94.2% accuracy, 0.942 F1 - score), with statistical testing confirming its significant outperformance of individual algorithms by 8 - 15%.


Data-Efficient Ensemble Weather Forecasting with Diffusion Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Although numerical weather forecasting methods have dominated the field, recent advances in deep learning methods, such as diffusion models, have shown promise in ensemble weather forecasting. However, such models are typically autoregressive and are thus computationally expensive. This is a challenge in climate science, where data can be limited, costly, or difficult to work with. In this work, we explore the impact of curated data selection on these autoregressive diffusion models. W e evaluate several data sampling strategies and show that a simple time stratified sampling approach achieves performance similar to or better than full-data training. Notably, it outperforms the full-data model on certain metrics and performs only slightly worse on others while using only 20% of the training data. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of data-efficient diffusion training, especially for weather forecasting, and motivates future work on adaptive or model-aware sampling methods that go beyond random or purely temporal sampling.


Convergence Rate in Nonlinear Two-Time-Scale Stochastic Approximation with State (Time)-Dependence

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The nonlinear two-time-scale stochastic approximation is widely studied under conditions of bounded variances in noise. Motivated by recent advances that allow for variability linked to the current state or time, we consider state- and time-dependent noises. We show that the Lyapunov function exhibits polynomial convergence rates in both cases, with the rate of polynomial delay depending on the parameters of state- or time-dependent noises. Notably, if the state noise parameters fully approach their limiting value, the Lyapunov function achieves an exponential convergence rate. We provide two numerical examples to illustrate our theoretical findings in the context of stochastic gradient descent with Polyak-Ruppert averaging and stochastic bilevel optimization.


Decoupling Search and Learning in Neural Net Training

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Gradient descent typically converges to a single minimum of the training loss without mechanisms to explore alternative minima that may generalize better. Searching for diverse minima directly in high-dimensional parameter space is generally intractable. To address this, we propose a framework that performs training in two distinct phases: search in a tractable representation space (the space of intermediate activations) to find diverse representational solutions, and gradient-based learning in parameter space by regressing to those searched representations. Through evolutionary search, we discover representational solutions whose fitness and diversity scale with compute--larger populations and more generations produce better and more varied solutions. These representations prove to be learnable: networks trained by regressing to searched representations approach SGD's performance on MNIST, CIFAR-10, and CIFAR-100. Performance improves with search compute up to saturation. The resulting models differ qualitatively from networks trained with gradient descent, following different representational trajectories during training. This work demonstrates how future training algorithms could overcome gradient descent's exploratory limitations by decoupling search in representation space from efficient gradient-based learning in parameter space. Neural network training is fundamentally a search process over parameter configurations, seeking those that minimize training loss while generalizing well to unseen data.


Neurosymbolic AI Transfer Learning Improves Network Intrusion Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Transfer learning is commonly utilized in various fields such as computer vision, natural language processing, and medical imaging due to its impressive capability to address subtasks and work with different datasets. However, its application in cybersecurity has not been thoroughly explored. In this paper, we present an innovative neurosymbolic AI framework designed for network intrusion detection systems, which play a crucial role in combating malicious activities in cybersecurity. Our framework leverages transfer learning and uncertainty quantification. The findings indicate that transfer learning models, trained on large and well-structured datasets, outperform neural-based models that rely on smaller datasets, paving the way for a new era in cybersecurity solutions.


Point-Plane Projections for Accurate LiDAR Semantic Segmentation in Small Data Scenarios

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

LiDAR point cloud semantic segmentation is essential for interpreting 3D environments in applications such as autonomous driving and robotics. Recent methods achieve strong performance by exploiting different point cloud representations or incorporating data from other sensors, such as cameras or external datasets. However, these approaches often suffer from high computational complexity and require large amounts of training data, limiting their generalization in data-scarce scenarios. In this paper, we improve the performance of point-based methods by effectively learning features from 2D representations through point-plane projections, enabling the extraction of complementary information while relying solely on LiDAR data. Additionally, we introduce a geometry-aware technique for data augmentation that aligns with LiDAR sensor properties and mitigates class imbalance. We implemented and evaluated our method that applies point-plane projections onto multiple informative 2D representations of the point cloud. Experiments demonstrate that this approach leads to significant improvements in limited-data scenarios, while also achieving competitive results on two publicly available standard datasets, as SemanticKITTI and PandaSet. The code of our method is available at https://github.com/SiMoM0/3PNet


A Comparison of Selected Image Transformation Techniques for Malware Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recently, a considerable amount of malware research has focused on the use of powerful image-based machine learning techniques, which generally yield impressive results. However, before image-based techniques can be applied to malware, the samples must be converted to images, and there is no generally-accepted approach for doing so. The malware-to-image conversion strategies found in the literature often appear to be ad hoc, with little or no effort made to take into account properties of executable files. In this paper, we experiment with eight distinct malware-to-image conversion techniques, and for each, we test a variety of learning models. We find that several of these image conversion techniques perform similarly across a range of learning models, in spite of the image conversion processes being quite different. These results suggest that the effectiveness of image-based malware classification techniques may depend more on the inherent strengths of image analysis techniques, as opposed to the precise details of the image conversion strategy.


Parameter estimation with uncertainty quantification from continuous measurement data using neural network ensembles

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We show that ensembles of deep neural networks, called deep ensembles, can be used to perform quantum parameter estimation while also providing a means for quantifying uncertainty in parameter estimates, which is a key advantage of using Bayesian inference for parameter estimation. These models are shown to be more robust to noise in the measurement results used to perform the parameter estimation as well as noise in the data used to train them. We also show that much less data is needed to achieve comparable performance to Bayesian inference based estimation, which is known to reach the ultimate precision limit as more data is collected, than was used in previous proposals.


Adaptive Temporal Fusion Transformers for Cryptocurrency Price Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Precise short-term price prediction in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market is critical for informed trading strategies. Although Temporal Fusion Transformers (TFTs) have shown potential, their direct use often struggles in the face of the market's non-stationary nature and extreme volatility. This paper introduces an adaptive TFT modeling approach leveraging dynamic subseries lengths and pattern-based categorization to enhance short-term forecasting. We propose a novel segmentation method where subseries end at relative maxima, identified when the price increase from the preceding minimum surpasses a threshold, thus capturing significant upward movements, which act as key markers for the end of a growth phase, while potentially filtering the noise. Crucially, the fixed-length pattern ending each subseries determines the category assigned to the subsequent variable-length subseries, grouping typical market responses that follow similar preceding conditions. A distinct TFT model trained for each category is specialized in predicting the evolution of these subsequent subseries based on their initial steps after the preceding peak. Experimental results on ETH-USDT 10-minute data over a two-month test period demonstrate that our adaptive approach significantly outperforms baseline fixed-length TFT and LSTM models in prediction accuracy and simulated trading profitability. Our combination of adaptive segmentation and pattern-conditioned forecasting enables more robust and responsive cryptocurrency price prediction.


Crystal Systems Classification of Phosphate-Based Cathode Materials Using Machine Learning for Lithium-Ion Battery

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The physical and chemical characteristics of cathodes used in batteries are derived from the lithium-ion phosphate cathodes crystalline arrangement, which is pivotal to the overall battery performance. Therefore, the correct prediction of the crystal system is essential to estimate the properties of cathodes. This study applies machine learning classification algorithms for predicting the crystal systems, namely monoclinic, orthorhombic, and triclinic, related to Li P (Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, V) O based Phosphate cathodes. The data used in this work is extracted from the Materials Project. Feature evaluation showed that cathode properties depend on the crystal structure, and optimized classification strategies lead to better predictability. Ensemble machine learning algorithms such as Random Forest, Extremely Randomized Trees, and Gradient Boosting Machines have demonstrated the best predictive capabilities for crystal systems in the Monte Carlo cross-validation test. Additionally, sequential forward selection (SFS) is performed to identify the most critical features influencing the prediction accuracy for different machine learning models, with Volume, Band gap, and Sites as input features ensemble machine learning algorithms such as Random Forest (80.69%), Extremely Randomized Tree (78.96%), and Gradient Boosting Machine (80.40%) approaches lead to the maximum accuracy towards crystallographic classification with stability and the predicted materials can be the potential cathode materials for lithium ion batteries.