This paper proposes deception as a mechanism for out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization: by learning data representations that make training data appear independent and identically distributed (iid) to an observer, we can identify stable features that eliminate spurious correlations and generalize to unseen domains. We refer to this principle as deceptive risk minimization (DRM) and instantiate it with a practical differentiable objective that simultaneously learns features that eliminate distribution shifts from the perspective of a detector based on conformal martingales while minimizing a task-specific loss. In contrast to domain adaptation or prior invariant representation learning methods, DRM does not require access to test data or a partitioning of training data into a finite number of data-generating domains. We demonstrate the efficacy of DRM on numerical experiments with concept shift and a simulated imitation learning setting with covariate shift in environments that a robot is deployed in.

This study introduces Universal Delay Embedding (UDE), a pretrained foundation model designed to revolutionize time-series forecasting through principled integration of delay embedding representation and Koopman operator prediction. Leveraging Takens' embedding theorem, UDE as a dynamical representation of observed data constructs two-dimensional subspace patches from Hankel matrices, theoretically preserving dynamical and topological properties of underlying dynamical systems. Such patches are viewed as images, which can be efficiently processed by exploiting advanced deep learning technologies. Computationally, these patches further serve as tokens for learning a self-attention encoder, thus enabling accurate prediction of nonlinear time-series by a finite-dimensional Koopman operator in a linear manner in a latent space. Extensive evaluations across various benchmarks and real-world climate datasets demonstrate over 20% average reduction in mean squared error versus state-of-the-art foundation models, alongside superior generalization in fine-tuning scenarios. In particular, the learned dynamical representations and Koopman operator prediction forms from the patches exhibit exceptional interpretability, with consistent identification of topologically informative subspaces and robust encoding of domain-invariant dynamics, establishing UDE as a scalable, interpretable framework for universal time-series modeling and forecasting with broad scientific and industrial applicability.

Branched broomrape (Phelipanche ramosa) is a chlorophyll-deficient parasitic weed that threatens tomato production by extracting nutrients from the host. We investigate early detection using leaf-level spectral reflectance (400-2500 nm) and ensemble machine learning. In a field experiment in Woodland, California, we tracked 300 tomato plants across growth stages defined by growing degree days (GDD). Leaf reflectance was acquired with a portable spectrometer and preprocessed (band denoising, 1 nm interpolation, Savitzky-Golay smoothing, correlation-based band reduction). Clear class differences were observed near 1500 nm and 2000 nm water absorption features, consistent with reduced leaf water content in infected plants at early stages. An ensemble combining Random Forest, XGBoost, SVM with RBF kernel, and Naive Bayes achieved 89% accuracy at 585 GDD, with recalls of 0.86 (infected) and 0.93 (noninfected). Accuracy declined at later stages (e.g., 69% at 1568 GDD), likely due to senescence and weed interference. Despite the small number of infected plants and environmental confounders, results show that proximal sensing with ensemble learning enables timely detection of broomrape before canopy symptoms are visible, supporting targeted interventions and reduced yield losses.

Large language models (LLMs) are able to generate grammatically well-formed text, but how do they encode their syntactic knowledge internally? While prior work has focused largely on binary grammatical contrasts, in this work, we study the representation and control of two multidimensional hierarchical grammar phenomena - verb tense and aspect - and for each, identify distinct, orthogonal directions in residual space using linear discriminant analysis. Next, we demonstrate causal control over both grammatical features through concept steering across three generation tasks. Then, we use these identified features in a case study to investigate factors influencing effective steering in multi-token generation. We find that steering strength, location, and duration are crucial parameters for reducing undesirable side effects such as topic shift and degeneration. Our findings suggest that models encode tense and aspect in structurally organized, human-like ways, but effective control of such features during generation is sensitive to multiple factors and requires manual tuning or automated optimization.

Animal behavior analysis plays a crucial role in understanding animal welfare, health status, and productivity in agricultural settings. However, traditional manual observation methods are time-consuming, subjective, and limited in scalability. We present a modular pipeline that leverages open-sourced state-of-the-art computer vision techniques to automate animal behavior analysis in a group housing environment. Our approach combines state-of-the-art models for zero-shot object detection, motion-aware tracking and segmentation, and advanced feature extraction using vision transformers for robust behavior recognition. The pipeline addresses challenges including animal occlusions and group housing scenarios as demonstrated in indoor pig monitoring. We validated our system on the Edinburgh Pig Behavior Video Dataset for multiple behavioral tasks. Our temporal model achieved 94.2% overall accuracy, representing a 21.2 percentage point improvement over existing methods. The pipeline demonstrated robust tracking capabilities with 93.3% identity preservation score and 89.3% object detection precision. The modular design suggests potential for adaptation to other contexts, though further validation across species would be required. The open-source implementation provides a scalable solution for behavior monitoring, contributing to precision pig farming and welfare assessment through automated, objective, and continuous analysis.

Vision--language models (VLMs) often process visual inputs through a pretrained vision encoder, followed by a projection into the language model's embedding space via a connector component. While crucial for modality fusion, the potential information loss induced by this projection step and its direct impact on model capabilities remain understudied. We introduce two complementary approaches to examine and quantify this loss by analyzing the latent representation space. First, we evaluate semantic information preservation by analyzing changes in k-nearest neighbor relationships between image representations, before and after projection. Second, we directly measure information loss by reconstructing visual embeddings from the projected representation, localizing loss at an image patch level. Experiments reveal that connectors substantially distort the local geometry of visual representations, with k-nearest neighbors diverging by 40--60\% post-projection, correlating with degradation in retrieval performance. The patch-level embedding reconstruction provides interpretable insights for model behavior on visually grounded question-answering tasks, finding that areas of high information loss reliably predict instances where models struggle.

Neural network (NN) training is inherently a large-scale matrix optimization problem, yet the matrix structure of NN parameters has long been overlooked. Recently, the optimizer Muon \cite{jordanmuon}, which explicitly exploits this structure, has gained significant attention for its strong performance in foundation model training. A key component contributing to Muon's success is matrix orthogonalization. In this paper, we propose {\it low-rank orthogonalization}, which explicitly leverages the low-rank nature of gradients during NN training. Building on this, we propose low-rank matrix-signed gradient descent and a low-rank variant of Muon. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the superior performance of low-rank orthogonalization, with the low-rank Muon achieving promising results in GPT-2 and LLaMA pretraining -- surpassing the performance of the carefully tuned vanilla Muon. Theoretically, we establish the iteration complexity of the low-rank matrix-signed gradient descent for finding an approximate stationary solution, as well as that of low-rank Muon for finding an approximate stochastic stationary solution under heavy-tailed noise.

Evaluating tabular generators remains a challenging problem, as the unique causal structural prior of heterogeneous tabular data does not lend itself to intuitive human inspection. Recent work has introduced structural fidelity as a tabular-specific evaluation dimension to assess whether synthetic data complies with the causal structures of real data. However, existing benchmarks often neglect the interplay between structural fidelity and conventional evaluation dimensions, thus failing to provide a holistic understanding of model performance. Moreover, they are typically limited to toy datasets, as quantifying existing structural fidelity metrics requires access to ground-truth causal structures, which are rarely available for real-world datasets. In this paper, we propose a novel evaluation framework that jointly considers structural fidelity and conventional evaluation dimensions. We introduce a new evaluation metric, $\textbf{global utility}$, which enables the assessment of structural fidelity even in the absence of ground-truth causal structures. In addition, we present $\textbf{TabStruct}$, a comprehensive evaluation benchmark offering large-scale quantitative analysis on 13 tabular generators from nine distinct categories, across 29 datasets. Our results demonstrate that global utility provides a task-independent, domain-agnostic lens for tabular generator performance. We release the TabStruct benchmark suite, including all datasets, evaluation pipelines, and raw results. Code is available at https://github.com/SilenceX12138/TabStruct.

This study develops and evaluates a novel hybridWavelet SARIMA Transformer, WST framework to forecast using monthly rainfall across five meteorological subdivisions of Northeast India over the 1971 to 2023 period. The approach employs the Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform, MODWT with four wavelet families such as, Haar, Daubechies, Symlet, Coiflet etc. to achieve shift invariant, multiresolution decomposition of the rainfall series. Linear and seasonal components are modeled using Seasonal ARIMA, SARIMA, while nonlinear components are modeled by a Transformer network, and forecasts are reconstructed via inverse MODWT. Comprehensive validation using an 80 is to 20 train test split and multiple performance indices such as, RMSE, MAE, SMAPE, Willmotts d, Skill Score, Percent Bias, Explained Variance, and Legates McCabes E1 demonstrates the superiority of the Haar-based hybrid model, WHST. Across all subdivisions, WHST consistently achieved lower forecast errors, stronger agreement with observed rainfall, and unbiased predictions compared with stand alone SARIMA, stand-alone Transformer, and two-stage wavelet hybrids. Residual adequacy was confirmed through the Ljung Box test, while Taylor diagrams provided an integrated assessment of correlation, variance fidelity, and RMSE, further reinforcing the robustness of the proposed approach. The results highlight the effectiveness of integrating multiresolution signal decomposition with complementary linear and deep learning models for hydroclimatic forecasting. Beyond rainfall, the proposed WST framework offers a scalable methodology for forecasting complex environmental time series, with direct implications for flood risk management, water resources planning, and climate adaptation strategies in data-sparse and climate-sensitive regions.

Financial markets are complex, non-stationary systems where the underlying data distributions can shift over time, a phenomenon known as regime changes, as well as concept drift in the machine learning literature. These shifts, often triggered by major economic events, pose a significant challenge for traditional statistical and machine learning models. A fundamental problem in developing and validating adaptive algorithms is the lack of a ground truth in real-world financial data, making it difficult to evaluate a model's ability to detect and recover from these drifts. This paper addresses this challenge by introducing a novel framework, named ProteuS, for generating semi-synthetic financial time series with pre-defined structural breaks. Our methodology involves fitting ARMA-GARCH models to real-world ETF data to capture distinct market regimes, and then simulating realistic, gradual, and abrupt transitions between them. The resulting datasets, which include a comprehensive set of technical indicators, provide a controlled environment with a known ground truth of regime changes. An analysis of the generated data confirms the complexity of the task, revealing significant overlap between the different market states. We aim to provide the research community with a tool for the rigorous evaluation of concept drift detection and adaptation mechanisms, paving the way for more robust financial forecasting models.