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 Statistical Learning


ConvergeWriter: Data-Driven Bottom-Up Article Construction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable prowess in text generation, yet producing long-form, factual documents grounded in extensive external knowledge bases remains a significant challenge. Existing "top-down" methods, which first generate a hypothesis or outline and then retrieve evidence, often suffer from a disconnect between the model's plan and the available knowledge, leading to content fragmentation and factual inaccuracies. To address these limitations, we propose a novel "bottom-up," data-driven framework that inverts the conventional generation pipeline. Our approach is predicated on a "Retrieval-First for Knowledge, Clustering for Structure" strategy, which first establishes the "knowledge boundaries" of the source corpus before any generative planning occurs. Specifically, we perform exhaustive iterative retrieval from the knowledge base and then employ an unsupervised clustering algorithm to organize the retrieved documents into distinct "knowledge clusters." These clusters form an objective, data-driven foundation that directly guides the subsequent generation of a hierarchical outline and the final document content. This bottom-up process ensures that the generated text is strictly constrained by and fully traceable to the source material, proactively adapting to the finite scope of the knowledge base and fundamentally mitigating the risk of hallucination. Experimental results on both 14B and 32B parameter models demonstrate that our method achieves performance comparable to or exceeding state-of-the-art baselines, and is expected to demonstrate unique advantages in knowledge-constrained scenarios that demand high fidelity and structural coherence. Our work presents an effective paradigm for generating reliable, structured, long-form documents, paving the way for more robust LLM applications in high-stakes, knowledge-intensive domains.


The Morgan-Pitman Test of Equality of Variances and its Application to Machine Learning Model Evaluation and Selection

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Model selection in non-linear models often prioritizes performance metrics over statistical tests, limiting the ability to account for sampling variability. We propose the use of a statistical test to assess the equality of variances in forecasting errors. The test builds upon the classic Morgan-Pitman approach, incorporating enhancements to ensure robustness against data with heavy-tailed distributions or outliers with high variance, plus a strategy to make residuals from machine learning models statistically independent. Through a series of simulations and real-world data applications, we demonstrate the test's effectiveness and practical utility, offering a reliable tool for model evaluation and selection in diverse contexts.


MMM: Clustering Multivariate Longitudinal Mixed-type Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Multivariate longitudinal data of mixed-type are increasingly collected in many science domains. However, algorithms to cluster this kind of data remain scarce, due to the challenge to simultaneously model the within- and between-time dependence structures for multivariate data of mixed kind. We introduce the Mixture of Mixed-Matrices (MMM) model: reorganizing the data in a three-way structure and assuming that the non-continuous variables are observations of underlying latent continuous variables, the model relies on a mixture of matrix-variate normal distributions to perform clustering in the latent dimension. The MMM model is thus able to handle continuous, ordinal, binary, nominal and count data and to concurrently model the heterogeneity, the association among the responses and the temporal dependence structure in a parsimonious way and without assuming conditional independence. The inference is carried out through an MCMC-EM algorithm, which is detailed. An evaluation of the model through synthetic data shows its inference abilities. A real-world application on financial data is presented.


Contractive kinetic Langevin samplers beyond global Lipschitz continuity

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we examine the problem of sampling from log-concave distributions with (possibly) superlinear gradient growth under kinetic (underdamped) Langevin algorithms. Using a carefully tailored taming scheme, we propose two novel discretizations of the kinetic Langevin SDE, and we show that they are both contractive and satisfy a log-Sobolev inequality. Building on this, we establish a series of non-asymptotic bounds in $2$-Wasserstein distance between the law reached by each algorithm and the underlying target measure.


Identifiable Autoregressive Variational Autoencoders for Nonlinear and Nonstationary Spatio-Temporal Blind Source Separation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The modeling and prediction of multivariate spatio-temporal data involve numerous challenges. Dimension reduction methods can significantly simplify this process, provided that they account for the complex dependencies between variables and across time and space. Nonlinear blind source separation has emerged as a promising approach, particularly following recent advances in identifiability results. Building on these developments, we introduce the identifiable autoregressive variational autoen-coder, which ensures the identifiability of latent components consisting of nonstationary autoregressive processes. The blind source separation efficacy of the proposed method is showcased through a simulation study, where it is compared against state-of-the-art methods, and the spatio-temporal prediction performance is evaluated against several competitors on air pollution and weather datasets.


High Effort, Low Gain: Fundamental Limits of Active Learning for Linear Dynamical Systems

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this work, we consider the problem of identifying an unknown linear dynamical system given a finite hypothesis class. In particular, we analyze the effect of the excitation input on the sample complexity of identifying the true system with high probability. To this end, we present sample complexity lower bounds that capture the choice of the selected excitation input. The sample complexity lower bound gives rise to a system theoretic condition to determine the potential benefit of experiment design. Informed by the analysis of the sample complexity lower bound, we propose a persistent excitation (PE) condition tailored to the considered setting, which we then use to establish sample complexity upper bounds. Notably, the \acs{PE} condition is weaker than in the case of an infinite hypothesis class and allows analyzing different excitation inputs modularly. Crucially, the lower and upper bounds share the same dependency on key problem parameters. Finally, we leverage these insights to propose an active learning algorithm that sequentially excites the system optimally with respect to the current estimate, and provide sample complexity guarantees for the presented algorithm. Concluding simulations showcase the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.


SpaPool: Soft Partition Assignment Pooling for__Graph Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper introduces SpaPool, a novel pooling method that combines the strengths of both dense and sparse techniques for a graph neural network. SpaPool groups vertices into an adaptive number of clusters, leveraging the benefits of both dense and sparse approaches. It aims to maintain the structural integrity of the graph while reducing its size efficiently. Experimental results on several datasets demonstrate that SpaPool achieves competitive performance compared to existing pooling techniques and excels particularly on small-scale graphs. This makes SpaPool a promising method for applications requiring efficient and effective graph processing.


E-ROBOT: a dimension-free method for robust statistics and machine learning via Schrödinger bridge

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose the Entropic-regularized Robust Optimal Transport (E-ROBOT) framework, a novel method that combines the robustness of ROBOT with the computational and statistical benefits of entropic regularization. We show that, rooted in the Schrödinger bridge problem theory, E-ROBOT defines the robust Sinkhorn divergence $\overline{W}_{\varepsilon,λ}$, where the parameter $λ$ controls robustness and $\varepsilon$ governs the regularization strength. Letting $n\in \mathbb{N}$ denote the sample size, a central theoretical contribution is establishing that the sample complexity of $\overline{W}_{\varepsilon,λ}$ is $\mathcal{O}(n^{-1/2})$, thereby avoiding the curse of dimensionality that plagues standard ROBOT. This dimension-free property unlocks the use of $\overline{W}_{\varepsilon,λ}$ as a loss function in large-dimensional statistical and machine learning tasks. With this regard, we demonstrate its utility through four applications: goodness-of-fit testing; computation of barycenters for corrupted 2D and 3D shapes; definition of gradient flows; and image colour transfer. From the computation standpoint, a perk of our novel method is that it can be easily implemented by modifying existing (\texttt{Python}) routines. From the theoretical standpoint, our work opens the door to many research directions in statistics and machine learning: we discuss some of them.


Learning Majority-to-Minority Transformations with MMD and Triplet Loss for Imbalanced Classification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Traditional oversampling techniques--including SMOTE and its variants--generate synthetic minority samples via local interpolation but fail to capture global data distributions in high-dimensional spaces. Deep generative models based on GANs offer richer distribution modeling yet suffer from training instability and mode collapse under severe imbalance. To overcome these limitations, we introduce an oversampling framework that learns a parametric transformation to map majority samples into the minority distribution. Our approach minimizes the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) between transformed and true minority samples for global alignment, and incorporates a triplet loss regularizer to enforce boundary awareness by guiding synthesized samples toward challenging borderline regions. We evaluate our method on 29 synthetic and real-world datasets, demonstrating consistent improvements over classical and generative baselines in AUROC, G-mean, F1-score, and MCC. These results confirm the robustness, computational efficiency, and practical utility of the proposed framework for imbalanced classification tasks.


Long-time dynamics and universality of nonconvex gradient descent

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper develops a general approach to characterize the long-time trajectory behavior of nonconvex gradient descent in generalized single-index models in the large aspect ratio regime. In this regime, we show that for each iteration the gradient descent iterate concentrates around a deterministic vector called the `Gaussian theoretical gradient descent', whose dynamics can be tracked by a state evolution system of two recursive equations for two scalars. Our concentration guarantees hold universally for a broad class of design matrices and remain valid over long time horizons until algorithmic convergence or divergence occurs. Moreover, our approach reveals that gradient descent iterates are in general approximately independent of the data and strongly incoherent with the feature vectors, a phenomenon previously known as the `implicit regularization' effect of gradient descent in specific models under Gaussian data. As an illustration of the utility of our general theory, we present two applications of different natures in the regression setting. In the first, we prove global convergence of nonconvex gradient descent with general independent initialization for a broad class of structured link functions, and establish universality of randomly initialized gradient descent in phase retrieval for large aspect ratios. In the second, we develop a data-free iterative algorithm for estimating state evolution parameters along the entire gradient descent trajectory, thereby providing a low-cost yet statistically valid tool for practical tasks such as hyperparameter tuning and runtime determination. As a by-product of our analysis, we show that in the large aspect ratio regime, the Gaussian theoretical gradient descent coincides with a recent line of dynamical mean-field theory for gradient descent over the constant-time horizon.