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 Statistical Learning


Monitoring Machine Learning Systems: A Multivocal Literature Review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Context: Dynamic production environments make it challenging to maintain reliable machine learning (ML) systems. Runtime issues, such as changes in data patterns or operating contexts, that degrade model performance are a common occurrence in production settings. Monitoring enables early detection and mitigation of these runtime issues, helping maintain users' trust and prevent unwanted consequences for organizations. Aim: This study aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the ML monitoring literature. Method: We conducted a multivocal literature review (MLR) following the well established guidelines by Garousi to investigate various aspects of ML monitoring approaches in 136 papers. Results: We analyzed selected studies based on four key areas: (1) the motivations, goals, and context; (2) the monitored aspects, specific techniques, metrics, and tools; (3) the contributions and benefits; and (4) the current limitations. We also discuss several insights found in the studies, their implications, and recommendations for future research and practice. Conclusion: Our MLR identifies and summarizes ML monitoring practices and gaps, emphasizing similarities and disconnects between formal and gray literature. Our study is valuable for both academics and practitioners, as it helps select appropriate solutions, highlights limitations in current approaches, and provides future directions for research and tool development.


Unpacking Ambiguity: The Interaction of Polysemous Discourse Markers and Non-DM Signals

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Discourse markers (DMs) like 'but' or 'then' are crucial for creating coherence in discourse, yet they are often replaced by or co-occur with non-DMs ('in the morning' can mean the same as 'then'), and both can be ambiguous ('since' can refer to time or cause). The interaction mechanism between such signals remains unclear but pivotal for their disambiguation. In this paper we investigate the relationship between DM polysemy and co-occurrence of non-DM signals in English, as well as the influence of genre on these patterns. Using the framework of eRST, we propose a graded definition of DM polysemy, and conduct correlation and regression analyses to examine whether polysemous DMs are accompanied by more numerous and diverse non-DM signals. Our findings reveal that while polysemous DMs do co-occur with more diverse non-DMs, the total number of co-occurring signals does not necessarily increase. Moreover, genre plays a significant role in shaping DM-signal interactions.


Evaluating Supervised Learning Models for Fraud Detection: A Comparative Study of Classical and Deep Architectures on Imbalanced Transaction Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Fraud detection remains a critical task in high-stakes domains such as finance and e-commerce, where undetected fraudulent transactions can lead to significant economic losses. In this study, we systematically compare the performance of four supervised learning models - Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), and a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) network - on a large-scale, highly imbalanced online transaction dataset. While ensemble methods such as Random Forest and LightGBM demonstrated superior performance in both overall and class-specific metrics, Logistic Regression offered a reliable and interpretable baseline. The GRU model showed strong recall for the minority fraud class, though at the cost of precision, highlighting a trade-off relevant for real-world deployment. Our evaluation emphasizes not only weighted averages but also per-class precision, recall, and F1-scores, providing a nuanced view of each model's effectiveness in detecting rare but consequential fraudulent activity. The findings underscore the importance of choosing models based on the specific risk tolerance and operational needs of fraud detection systems.


Combining Minkowski and Chebyshev: New distance proposal and survey of distance metrics using k-nearest neighbours classifier

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work proposes a distance that combines Minkowski and Chebyshev distances and can be seen as an intermediary distance. This combination not only achieves efficient run times in neighbourhood iteration tasks in Z^2, but also obtains good accuracies when coupled with the k-Nearest Neighbours (k-NN) classifier. The proposed distance is approximately 1.3 times faster than Manhattan distance and 329.5 times faster than Euclidean distance in discrete neighbourhood iterations. An accuracy analysis of the k-NN classifier using a total of 33 datasets from the UCI repository, 15 distances and values assigned to k that vary from 1 to 200 is presented. In this experiment, the proposed distance obtained accuracies that were better than the average more often than its counterparts (in 26 cases out of 33), and also obtained the best accuracy more frequently (in 9 out of 33 cases).


Optimal Learning from Label Proportions with General Loss Functions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Motivated by problems in online advertising, we address the task of Learning from Label Proportions (LLP). In this partially-supervised setting, training data consists of groups of examples, termed bags, for which we only observe the average label value. The main goal, however, remains the design of a predictor for the labels of individual examples. We introduce a novel and versatile low-variance de-biasing methodology to learn from aggregate label information, significantly advancing the state of the art in LLP. Our approach exhibits remarkable flexibility, seamlessly accommodating a broad spectrum of practically relevant loss functions across both binary and multi-class classification settings. By carefully combining our estimators with standard techniques, we substantially improve sample complexity guarantees for a large class of losses of practical relevance. We also empirically validate the efficacy of our proposed approach across a diverse array of benchmark datasets, demonstrating compelling empirical advantages over standard baselines.


Shedding Light on Dark Matter at the LHC with Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We investigate a WIMP dark matter (DM) candidate in the form of a singlino-dominated lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) within the $Z_3$-symmetric Next-to-Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model. This framework gives rise to regions of parameter space where DM is obtained via co-annihilation with nearby higgsino-like electroweakinos and DM direct detection~signals are suppressed, the so-called ``blind spots". On the other hand, collider signatures remain promising due to enhanced radiative decay modes of higgsinos into the singlino-dominated LSP and a photon, rather than into leptons or hadrons. This motivates searches for radiatively decaying neutralinos, however, these signals face substantial background challenges, as the decay products are typically soft due to the small mass-splits ($ฮ”m$) between the LSP and the higgsino-like coannihilation partners. We apply a data-driven Machine Learning (ML) analysis that improves sensitivity to these subtle signals, offering a powerful complement to traditional search strategies to discover a new physics scenario. Using an LHC integrated luminosity of $100~\mathrm{fb}^{-1}$ at $14~\mathrm{TeV}$, the method achieves a $5ฯƒ$ discovery reach for higgsino masses up to $225~\mathrm{GeV}$ with $ฮ”m\!\lesssim\!12~\mathrm{GeV}$, and a $2ฯƒ$ exclusion up to $285~\mathrm{GeV}$ with $ฮ”m\!\lesssim\!20~\mathrm{GeV}$. These results highlight the power of collider searches to probe DM candidates that remain hidden from current direct detection experiments, and provide a motivation for a search by the LHC collaborations using ML methods.


Efficient Conformal Prediction for Regression Models under Label Noise

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In high-stakes scenarios, such as medical imaging applications, it is critical to equip the predictions of a regression model with reliable confidence intervals. Recently, Conformal Prediction (CP) has emerged as a powerful statistical framework that, based on a labeled calibration set, generates intervals that include the true labels with a pre-specified probability. In this paper, we address the problem of applying CP for regression models when the calibration set contains noisy labels. We begin by establishing a mathematically grounded procedure for estimating the noise-free CP threshold. Then, we turn it into a practical algorithm that overcomes the challenges arising from the continuous nature of the regression problem. We evaluate the proposed method on two medical imaging regression datasets with Gaussian label noise. Our method significantly outperforms the existing alternative, achieving performance close to the clean-label setting.


Improving Internet Traffic Matrix Prediction via Time Series Clustering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a novel framework that leverages time series clustering to improve internet traffic matrix (TM) prediction using deep learning (DL) models. Traffic flows within a TM often exhibit diverse temporal behaviors, which can hinder prediction accuracy when training a single model across all flows. To address this, we propose two clustering strategies, source clustering and histogram clustering, that group flows with similar temporal patterns prior to model training. Clustering creates more homogeneous data subsets, enabling models to capture underlying patterns more effectively and generalize better than global prediction approaches that fit a single model to the entire TM. Compared to existing TM prediction methods, our method reduces RMSE by up to 92\% for Abilene and 75\% for Gร‰ANT. In routing scenarios, our clustered predictions also reduce maximum link utilization (MLU) bias by 18\% and 21\%, respectively, demonstrating the practical benefits of clustering when TMs are used for network optimization.


Credit Card Fraud Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Iva Popova Hamza A. A. Gardi ETIT - KIT, Germany IIIT at ETIT - KIT, Germany Abstract Credit card fraud remains a significant challenge due to class imbalance and fraudsters mimicking legitimate behavior. This study evaluates five machine learning models - Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, K - Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Multi - Lay er Perceptron (MLP) on a real - world dataset using undersampling, SMOTE, and a hybrid approach. Our models are evaluated on the original imbalanced test set to better reflect real - world performance. Results show that the hybrid method achieves the best bala nce between recall and precision, especially improving MLP and KNN performance. I ntroduction Financial fraud is a significant issue that has been continuously increasing over the past few years due to the ever - growing volume of online transactions conduc ted with credit cards. Credit card fraud (CCF) refers to a type of fraud in which an individual other than the cardholder unlawfully conducts transactions using a card that is stolen, lost, or otherwise misused [ 1 ]. CCF has resulted in billions of dollars in losses for banks and other online payment platforms. According to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), there were 449,076 reports of CCF in 2024, representing a 7.8% increase from the previous year [ 2 ]. Given this trend, new methods must be employed to c apture patterns and dependencies in the data.


Attention Beyond Neighborhoods: Reviving Transformer for Graph Clustering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Attention mechanisms have become a cornerstone in modern neural networks, driving breakthroughs across diverse domains. However, their application to graph structured data, where capturing topological connections is essential, remains underexplored and underperforming compared to Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), particularly in the graph clustering task. GNN tends to overemphasize neighborhood aggregation, leading to a homogenization of node representations. Conversely, Transformer tends to over globalize, highlighting distant nodes at the expense of meaningful local patterns. This dichotomy raises a key question: Is attention inherently redundant for unsupervised graph learning? To address this, we conduct a comprehensive empirical analysis, uncovering the complementary weaknesses of GNN and Transformer in graph clustering. Motivated by these insights, we propose the Attentive Graph Clustering Network (AGCN) a novel architecture that reinterprets the notion that graph is attention. AGCN directly embeds the attention mechanism into the graph structure, enabling effective global information extraction while maintaining sensitivity to local topological cues. Our framework incorporates theoretical analysis to contrast AGCN behavior with GNN and Transformer and introduces two innovations: (1) a KV cache mechanism to improve computational efficiency, and (2) a pairwise margin contrastive loss to boost the discriminative capacity of the attention space. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that AGCN outperforms state-of-the-art methods.