Tabular Generative Models are often argued to preserve privacy by creating synthetic datasets that resemble training data. However, auditing their empirical privacy remains challenging, as commonly used similarity metrics fail to effectively characterize privacy risk. Membership Inference Attacks (MIAs) have recently emerged as a method for evaluating privacy leakage in synthetic data, but their practical effectiveness is limited. Numerous attacks exist across different threat models, each with distinct implementations targeting various sources of privacy leakage, making them difficult to apply consistently. Moreover, no single attack consistently outperforms the others, leading to a routine underestimation of privacy risk. To address these issues, we propose a unified, model-agnostic threat framework that deploys a collection of attacks to estimate the maximum empirical privacy leakage in synthetic datasets. We introduce Synth-MIA, an open-source Python library that streamlines this auditing process through a novel testbed that integrates seamlessly into existing synthetic data evaluation pipelines through a Scikit-Learn-like API. Our software implements 13 attack methods through a Scikit-Learn-like API, designed to enable fast systematic estimation of privacy leakage for practitioners as well as facilitate the development of new attacks and experiments for researchers. We demonstrate our framework's utility in the largest tabular synthesis privacy benchmark to date, revealing that higher synthetic data quality corresponds to greater privacy leakage, that similarity-based privacy metrics show weak correlation with MIA results, and that the differentially private generator PATEGAN can fail to preserve privacy under such attacks. This underscores the necessity of MIA-based auditing when designing and deploying Tabular Generative Models.

Gradient boosting has become a cornerstone of machine learning, enabling base learners such as decision trees to achieve exceptional predictive performance. While existing algorithms primarily handle scalar or Euclidean outputs, increasingly prevalent complex-structured data, such as distributions, networks, and manifold-valued outputs, present challenges for traditional methods. Such non-Euclidean data lack algebraic structures such as addition, subtraction, or scalar multiplication required by standard gradient boosting frameworks. To address these challenges, we introduce Fréchet geodesic boosting (FGBoost), a novel approach tailored for outputs residing in geodesic metric spaces. FGBoost leverages geodesics as proxies for residuals and constructs ensembles in a way that respects the intrinsic geometry of the output space. Through theoretical analysis, extensive simulations, and real-world applications, we demonstrate the strong performance and adaptability of FGBoost, showcasing its potential for modeling complex data.

Tabular data dominates data science but poses challenges for generative models, especially when the data is limited or sensitive. We present a novel approach to generating synthetic tabular data based on the principle of maximum entropy -- MaxEnt -- called GEM-T, for ``generative entropy maximization for tables.'' GEM-T directly captures nth-order interactions -- pairwise, third-order, etc. -- among columns of training data. In extensive testing, GEM-T matches or exceeds deep neural network approaches previously regarded as state-of-the-art in 23 of 34 publicly available datasets representing diverse subject domains (68\%). Notably, GEM-T involves orders-of-magnitude fewer trainable parameters, demonstrating that much of the information in real-world data resides in low-dimensional, potentially human-interpretable correlations, provided that the input data is appropriately transformed first. Furthermore, MaxEnt better handles heterogeneous data types (continuous vs. discrete vs. categorical), lack of local structure, and other features of tabular data. GEM-T represents a promising direction for light-weight high-performance generative models for structured data.

Whitening is a classical technique in unsupervised learning that can facilitate estimation tasks by standardizing data. An important application is the estimation of latent variable models via the decomposition of tensors built from high-order moments. In particular, whitening orthogonalizes the means of a spherical Gaussian mixture model (GMM), thereby making the corresponding moment tensor orthogonally decomposable, hence easier to decompose. However, in the large-dimensional regime (LDR) where data are high-dimensional and scarce, the standard whitening matrix built from the sample covariance becomes ineffective because the latter is spectrally distorted. Consequently, whitened means of a spherical GMM are no longer orthogonal. Using random matrix theory, we derive exact limits for their dot products, which are generally nonzero in the LDR. As our main contribution, we then construct a corrected whitening matrix that restores asymptotic orthogonality, allowing for performance gains in spherical GMM estimation.

Standard machine learning models optimized for average performance often fail on minority subgroups and lack robustness to distribution shifts. This challenge worsens when subgroups are latent and affected by complex interactions among continuous and discrete features. We introduce ROME (RObust Mixture Ensemble), a framework that learns latent group structure from data while optimizing for worst-group performance. ROME employs two approaches: an Expectation-Maximization algorithm for linear models and a neural Mixture-of-Experts for nonlinear settings. Through simulations and experiments on real-world datasets, we demonstrate that ROME significantly improves algorithmic fairness compared to standard methods while maintaining competitive average performance. Importantly, our method requires no predefined group labels, making it practical when sources of disparities are unknown or evolving.

Inference in semi-supervised (SS) settings has gained substantial attention in recent years due to increased relevance in modern big-data problems. In a typical SS setting, there is a much larger-sized unlabeled data, containing only observations of predictors, and a moderately sized labeled data containing observations for both an outcome and the set of predictors. Such data naturally arises when the outcome, unlike the predictors, is costly or difficult to obtain. One of the primary statistical objectives in SS settings is to explore whether parameter estimation can be improved by exploiting the unlabeled data. We propose a novel Bayesian method for estimating the population mean in SS settings. The approach yields estimators that are both efficient and optimal for estimation and inference. The method itself has several interesting artifacts. The central idea behind the method is to model certain summary statistics of the data in a targeted manner, rather than the entire raw data itself, along with a novel Bayesian notion of debiasing. Specifying appropriate summary statistics crucially relies on a debiased representation of the population mean that incorporates unlabeled data through a flexible nuisance function while also learning its estimation bias. Combined with careful usage of sample splitting, this debiasing approach mitigates the effect of bias due to slow rates or misspecification of the nuisance parameter from the posterior of the final parameter of interest, ensuring its robustness and efficiency. Concrete theoretical results, via Bernstein--von Mises theorems, are established, validating all claims, and are further supported through extensive numerical studies. To our knowledge, this is possibly the first work on Bayesian inference in SS settings, and its central ideas also apply more broadly to other Bayesian semi-parametric inference problems.

Existing theory suggests that for linear regression problems categorized by capacity and source conditions, gradient descent (GD) is always minimax optimal, while both ridge regression and online stochastic gradient descent (SGD) are polynomially suboptimal for certain categories of such problems. Moving beyond minimax theory, this work provides instance-wise comparisons of the finite-sample risks for these algorithms on any well-specified linear regression problem. Our analysis yields three key findings. First, GD dominates ridge regression: with comparable regularization, the excess risk of GD is always within a constant factor of ridge, but ridge can be polynomially worse even when tuned optimally. Second, GD is incomparable with SGD. While it is known that for certain problems GD can be polynomially better than SGD, the reverse is also true: we construct problems, inspired by benign overfitting theory, where optimally stopped GD is polynomially worse. Finally, GD dominates SGD for a significant subclass of problems -- those with fast and continuously decaying covariance spectra -- which includes all problems satisfying the standard capacity condition.

Bayesian hyperparameter optimization relies heavily on Gaussian Process (GP) surrogates, due to robust distributional posteriors and strong performance on limited training samples. GPs however underperform in categorical hyperparameter environments or when assumptions of normality, heteroskedasticity and symmetry are excessively challenged. Conformalized quantile regression can address these estimation weaknesses, while still providing robust calibration guarantees. This study builds upon early work in this area by addressing feedback covariate shift in sequential acquisition and integrating a wider range of surrogate architectures and acquisition functions. Proposed algorithms are rigorously benchmarked against a range of state of the art hyperparameter optimization methods (GP, TPE and SMAC). Findings identify quantile surrogate architectures and acquisition functions yielding superior performance to the current quantile literature, while validating the beneficial impact of conformalization on calibration and search performance.

Wasserstein gradient flow (WGF) is a common method to perform optimization over the space of probability measures. While WGF is guaranteed to converge to a first-order stationary point, for nonconvex functionals the converged solution does not necessarily satisfy the second-order optimality condition; i.e., it could converge to a saddle point. In this work, we propose a new algorithm for probability measure optimization, perturbed Wasserstein gradient flow (PWGF), that achieves second-order optimality for general nonconvex objectives. PWGF enhances WGF by injecting noisy perturbations near saddle points via a Gaussian process-based scheme. By pushing the measure forward along a random vector field generated from a Gaussian process, PWGF helps the solution escape saddle points efficiently by perturbing the solution towards the smallest eigenvalue direction of the Wasserstein Hessian. We theoretically derive the computational complexity for PWGF to achieve a second-order stationary point. Furthermore, we prove that PWGF converges to a global optimum in polynomial time for strictly benign objectives.

Generative models for counterfactual outcomes face two key sources of bias. Confounding bias arises when approaches fail to account for systematic differences between those who receive the intervention and those who do not. Misspecification bias arises when methods attempt to address confounding through estimation of an auxiliary model, but specify it incorrectly. We introduce DoubleGen, a doubly robust framework that modifies generative modeling training objectives to mitigate these biases. The new objectives rely on two auxiliaries -- a propensity and outcome model -- and successfully address confounding bias even if only one of them is correct. We provide finite-sample guarantees for this robustness property. We further establish conditions under which DoubleGen achieves oracle optimality -- matching the convergence rates standard approaches would enjoy if interventional data were available -- and minimax rate optimality. We illustrate DoubleGen with three examples: diffusion models, flow matching, and autoregressive language models.