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 Statistical Learning


Deep P-Spline: Theory, Fast Tuning, and Application

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been widely applied to solve real-world regression problems. However, selecting optimal network structures remains a significant challenge. This study addresses this issue by linking neuron selection in DNNs to knot placement in basis expansion techniques. We introduce a difference penalty that automates knot selection, thereby simplifying the complexities of neuron selection. We name this method Deep P-Spline (DPS). This approach extends the class of models considered in conventional DNN modeling and forms the basis for a latent variable modeling framework using the Expectation-Conditional Maximization (ECM) algorithm for efficient network structure tuning with theoretical guarantees. From a nonparametric regression perspective, DPS is proven to overcome the curse of dimensionality, enabling the effective handling of datasets with a large number of input variable, a scenario where conventional nonparametric regression methods typically underperform. This capability motivates the application of the proposed methodology to computer experiments and image data analyses, where the associated regression problems involving numerous inputs are common. Numerical results validate the effectiveness of the model, underscoring its potential for advanced nonlinear regression tasks.


TR2-D2: Tree Search Guided Trajectory-Aware Fine-Tuning for Discrete Diffusion

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement learning with stochastic optimal control offers a promising framework for diffusion fine-tuning, where a pre-trained diffusion model is optimized to generate paths that lead to a reward-tilted distribution. While these approaches enable optimization without access to explicit samples from the optimal distribution, they require training on rollouts under the current fine-tuned model, making them susceptible to reinforcing sub-optimal trajectories that yield poor rewards. To overcome this challenge, we introduce TRee Search Guided TRajectory-Aware Fine-Tuning for Discrete Diffusion (TR2-D2), a novel framework that optimizes reward-guided discrete diffusion trajectories with tree search to construct replay buffers for trajectory-aware fine-tuning. These buffers are generated using Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) and subsequently used to fine-tune a pre-trained discrete diffusion model under a stochastic optimal control objective. We validate our framework on single- and multi-objective fine-tuning of biological sequence diffusion models, highlighting the overall effectiveness of TR2-D2 for reliable reward-guided fine-tuning in discrete sequence generation.


Towards a Certificate of Trust: Task-Aware OOD Detection for Scientific AI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Data-driven models are increasingly adopted in critical scientific fields like weather forecasting and fluid dynamics. These methods can fail on out-of-distribution (OOD) data, but detecting such failures in regression tasks is an open challenge. We propose a new OOD detection method based on estimating joint likelihoods using a score-based diffusion model. This approach considers not just the input but also the regression model's prediction, providing a task-aware reliability score. Across numerous scientific datasets, including PDE datasets, satellite imagery and brain tumor segmentation, we show that this likelihood strongly correlates with prediction error. Our work provides a foundational step towards building a verifiable 'certificate of trust', thereby offering a practical tool for assessing the trustworthiness of AI-based scientific predictions. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/bogdanraonic3/OOD_Detection_ScientificML


Sampling Complexity of TD and PPO in RKHS

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We revisit Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) from a function-space perspective. Our analysis decouples policy evaluation and improvement in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS): (i) A kernelized temporal-difference (TD) critic performs efficient RKHS-gradient updates using only one-step state-action transition samples; (ii) a KL-regularized, natural-gradient policy step exponentiates the evaluated action-value, recovering a PPO/TRPO-style proximal update in continuous state-action spaces. We provide non-asymptotic, instance-adaptive guarantees whose rates depend on RKHS entropy, unifying tabular, linear, Sobolev, Gaussian, and Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) regimes, and we derive a sampling rule for the proximal update that ensures the optimal $k^{-1/2}$ convergence rate for stochastic optimization. Empirically, the theory-aligned schedule improves stability and sample efficiency on common control tasks (e.g., CartPole, Acrobot), while our TD-based critic attains favorable throughput versus a GAE baseline. Altogether, our results place PPO on a firmer theoretical footing beyond finite-dimensional assumptions and clarify when RKHS-proximal updates with kernel-TD critics yield global policy improvement with practical efficiency.


Meta-Learning Theory-Informed Inductive Biases using Deep Kernel Gaussian Processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Normative and task-driven theories offer powerful top-down explanations for biological systems, yet the goals of quantitatively arbitrating between competing theories, and utilizing them as inductive biases to improve data-driven fits of real biological datasets are prohibitively laborious, and often impossible. To this end, we introduce a Bayesian meta-learning framework designed to automatically convert raw functional predictions from normative theories into tractable probabilistic models. We employ adaptive deep kernel Gaussian processes, meta-learning a kernel on synthetic data generated from a normative theory. This Theory-Informed Kernel specifies a probabilistic model representing the theory predictions -- usable for both fitting data and rigorously validating the theory. As a demonstration, we apply our framework to the early visual system, using efficient coding as our normative theory. We show improved response prediction accuracy in ex vivo recordings of mouse retinal ganglion cells stimulated by natural scenes compared to conventional data-driven baselines, while providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates and interpretable representations. Using exact Bayesian model selection, we also show that our informed kernel can accurately infer the degree of theory-match from data, confirming faithful encapsulation of theory structure. This work provides a more general, scalable, and automated approach for integrating theoretical knowledge into data-driven scientific inquiry in neuroscience and beyond.


Physics-informed learning under mixing: How physical knowledge speeds up learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Physics-informed machine learning encompasses a wide taxonomy of approaches that combine physical knowledge and learning algorithms to address two main tasks: (i) enhancing physical models (given, e.g., by systems of partial differential equations) through data-driven methods to improve their accuracy and numerical solvability; (ii) improve the learning algorithms' performance by including physical information, e.g., as additional constraint (Karniadakis et al., 2021; Meng et al., 2025). Focusing on the second class of methods, surveyed in Rai and Sahu, 2020; von Rueden, Mayer, et al., 2023, the resulting approaches turn out to be practically effective in terms of data efficiency, generalization capability and interpretability, especially in view of downstream tasks such as safe learning-based control (Nghiem et al., 2023; Drgona et al., 2025). However, theoretically quantifying the beneficial impact of physical information into learning algorithms is challenging and still an active research question (see von Rueden, Garcke, and Bauckhage, 2023 and references therein).


DSAT-HD: Dual-Stream Adaptive Transformer with Hybrid Decomposition for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Time series forecasting is crucial for various applications, such as weather, traffic, electricity, and energy predictions. Currently, common time series forecasting methods are based on Transformers. However, existing approaches primarily model limited time series or fixed scales, making it more challenging to capture diverse features cross different ranges. Additionally, traditional methods like STL for complex seasonality-trend decomposition require pre-specified seasonal periods and typically handle only single, fixed seasonality. We propose the Hybrid Decomposition Dual-Stream Adaptive Transformer (DSAT-HD), which integrates three key innovations to address the limitations of existing methods: 1) A hybrid decomposition mechanism combining EMA and Fourier decomposition with RevIN normalization, dynamically balancing seasonal and trend components through noise Top-k gating; 2) A multi-scale adaptive pathway leveraging a sparse allocator to route features to four parallel Transformer layers, followed by feature merging via a sparse combiner, enhanced by hybrid attention combining local CNNs and global interactions; 3) A dual-stream residual learning framework where CNN and MLP branches separately process seasonal and trend components, coordinated by a balanced loss function minimizing expert collaboration variance. Extensive experiments on nine datasets demonstrate that DSAT-HD outperforms existing methods overall and achieves state-of-the-art performance on some datasets. Notably, it also exhibits stronger generalization capabilities across various transfer scenarios.


One-Prompt Strikes Back: Sparse Mixture of Experts for Prompt-based Continual Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Prompt-based methods have recently gained prominence in Continual Learning (CL) due to their strong performance and memory efficiency. A prevalent strategy in this paradigm assigns a dedicated subset of prompts to each task, which, while effective, incurs substantial computational overhead and causes memory requirements to scale linearly with the number of tasks. Conversely, approaches employing a single shared prompt across tasks offer greater efficiency but often suffer from degraded performance due to knowledge interference. To reconcile this trade-off, we propose SMoPE, a novel framework that integrates the benefits of both task-specific and shared prompt strategies. Inspired by recent findings on the relationship between Prefix Tuning and Mixture of Experts (MoE), SMoPE organizes a shared prompt into multiple "prompt experts" within a sparse MoE architecture. For each input, only a select subset of relevant experts is activated, effectively mitigating interference. To facilitate expert selection, we introduce a prompt-attention score aggregation mechanism that computes a unified proxy score for each expert, enabling dynamic and sparse activation. Additionally, we propose an adaptive noise mechanism to encourage balanced expert utilization while preserving knowledge from prior tasks. To further enhance expert specialization, we design a prototype-based loss function that leverages prefix keys as implicit memory representations. Extensive experiments across multiple CL benchmarks demonstrate that SMoPE consistently outperforms task-specific prompt methods and achieves performance competitive with state-of-the-art approaches, all while significantly reducing parameter counts and computational costs.


Distributionally Robust Federated Learning with Outlier Resilience

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Federated learning (FL) enables collaborative model training without direct data sharing, but its performance can degrade significantly in the presence of data distribution perturbations. Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) provides a principled framework for handling this by optimizing performance against the worst-case distributions within a prescribed ambiguity set. However, existing DRO-based FL methods often overlook the detrimental impact of outliers in local datasets, which can disproportionately bias the learned models. In this work, we study distributionally robust federated learning with explicit outlier resilience. We introduce a novel ambiguity set based on the unbalanced Wasserstein distance, which jointly captures geometric distributional shifts and incorporates a non-geometric Kullback--Leibler penalization to mitigate the influence of outliers. This formulation naturally leads to a challenging min--max--max optimization problem. To enable decentralized training, we reformulate the problem as a tractable Lagrangian penalty optimization, which admits robustness certificates. Building on this reformulation, we propose the distributionally outlier-robust federated learning algorithm and establish its convergence guarantees. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.


A Data-Centric Perspective on the Influence of Image Data Quality in Machine Learning Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In machine learning, research has traditionally focused on model development, with relatively less attention paid to training data. As model architectures have matured and marginal gains from further refinements diminish, data quality has emerged as a critical factor. However, systematic studies on evaluating and ensuring dataset quality in the image domain remain limited. This study investigates methods for systematically assessing image dataset quality and examines how various image quality factors influence model performance. Using the publicly available and relatively clean CIFAKE dataset, we identify common quality issues and quantify their impact on training. Building on these findings, we develop a pipeline that integrates two community-developed tools, CleanVision and Fastdup. We analyze their underlying mechanisms and introduce several enhancements, including automatic threshold selection to detect problematic images without manual tuning. Experimental results demonstrate that not all quality issues exert the same level of impact. While convolutional neural networks show resilience to certain distortions, they are particularly vulnerable to degradations that obscure critical visual features, such as blurring and severe downscaling. To assess the performance of existing tools and the effectiveness of our proposed enhancements, we formulate the detection of low-quality images as a binary classification task and use the F1 score as the evaluation metric. Our automatic thresholding method improves the F1 score from 0.6794 to 0.9468 under single perturbations and from 0.7447 to 0.8557 under dual perturbations. For near-duplicate detection, our deduplication strategy increases the F1 score from 0.4576 to 0.7928. These results underscore the effectiveness of our workflow and provide a foundation for advancing data quality assessment in image-based machine learning.