We develop a framework for post model selection inference, via marginal screening, in linear regression. At the core of this framework is a result that characterizes the exact distribution of linear functions of the response $y$, conditional on the model being selected (``condition on selection framework). This allows us to construct valid confidence intervals and hypothesis tests for regression coefficients that account for the selection procedure. In contrast to recent work in high-dimensional statistics, our results are exact (non-asymptotic) and require no eigenvalue-like assumptions on the design matrix $X$. Furthermore, the computational cost of marginal regression, constructing confidence intervals and hypothesis testing is negligible compared to the cost of linear regression, thus making our methods particularly suitable for extremely large datasets. Although we focus on marginal screening to illustrate the applicability of the condition on selection framework, this framework is much more broadly applicable. We show how to apply the proposed framework to several other selection procedures including orthogonal matching pursuit and marginal screening+Lasso.

Hierarchical clustering methods offer an intuitive and powerful way to model a wide variety of data sets. However, the assumption of a fixed hierarchy is often overly restrictive when working with data generated over a period of time: We expect both the structure of our hierarchy, and the parameters of the clusters, to evolve with time. In this paper, we present a distribution over collections of time-dependent, infinite-dimensional trees that can be used to model evolving hierarchies, and present an efficient and scalable algorithm for performing approximate inference in such a model. We demonstrate the efficacy of our model and inference algorithm on both synthetic data and real-world document corpora.

Estimating a vector from noisy quadratic observations is a task that arises naturally in many contexts, from dimensionality reduction, to synchronization and phase retrieval problems. It is often the case that additional information is available about the unknown vector (for instance, sparsity, sign or magnitude of its entries). Many authors propose non-convex quadratic optimization problems that aim at exploiting optimally this information. However, solving these problems is typically NP-hard. We consider a simple model for noisy quadratic observation of an unknown vector $\bvz$.

Sparse embeddings of data form an attractive class due to their inherent interpretability: Every dimension is tied to a term in some vocabulary, making it easy to visually decipher the latent space. Sparsity, however, poses unique challenges for Approximate Nearest Neighbor Search (ANNS) which finds, from a collection of vectors, the k vectors closest to a query. To encourage research on this underexplored topic, sparse ANNS featured prominently in a BigANN Challenge at NeurIPS 2023, where approximate algorithms were evaluated on large benchmark datasets by throughput and accuracy. In this work, we introduce a set of novel data structures and algorithmic methods, a combination of which leads to an elegant, effective, and highly efficient solution to sparse ANNS. Our contributions range from a theoretically-grounded sketching algorithm for sparse vectors to reduce their effective dimensionality while preserving inner product-induced ranks; a geometric organization of the inverted index; and the blending of local and global information to improve the efficiency and efficacy of ANNS. Empirically, our final algorithm, dubbed Seismic, reaches sub-millisecond per-query latency with high accuracy on a large-scale benchmark dataset using a single CPU.

When and how can an attention mechanism learn to selectively attend to informative tokens, thereby enabling detection of weak, rare, and sparsely located features? We address these questions theoretically in a sparse-token classification model in which positive samples embed a weak signal vector in a randomly chosen subset of tokens, whereas negative samples are pure noise. In the long-sequence limit, we show that a simple single-layer attention classifier can in principle achieve vanishing test error when the signal strength grows only logarithmically in the sequence length $L$, whereas linear classifiers require $\sqrt{L}$ scaling. Moving from representational power to learnability, we study training at finite $L$ in a high-dimensional regime, where sample size and embedding dimension grow proportionally. We prove that just two gradient updates suffice for the query weight vector of the attention classifier to acquire a nontrivial alignment with the hidden signal, inducing an attention map that selectively amplifies informative tokens. We further derive an exact asymptotic expression for the test error and training loss of the trained attention-based classifier, and quantify its capacity -- the largest dataset size that is typically perfectly separable -- thereby explaining the advantage of adaptive token selection over nonadaptive linear baselines.

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a powerful framework for optimizing noisy, expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions. When the objective exhibits invariances under a group action, exploiting these symmetries can substantially improve BO efficiency. While using maximum similarity across group orbits has long been considered in other domains, the fact that the max kernel is not positive semidefinite (PSD) has prevented its use in BO. In this work, we revisit this idea by considering a PSD projection of the max kernel. Compared to existing invariant (and non-invariant) kernels, we show it achieves significantly lower regret on both synthetic and real-world BO benchmarks, without increasing computational complexity.

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is widely used in personalized medicine to inform therapeutic decisions. However, state-of-the-art methods for CATE estimation (so-called meta-learners) often perform poorly in the presence of low overlap. In this work, we introduce a new approach to tackle this issue and improve the performance of existing meta-learners in the low-overlap regions. Specifically, we introduce Overlap-Adaptive Regularization (OAR) that regularizes target models proportionally to overlap weights so that, informally, the regularization is higher in regions with low overlap. To the best of our knowledge, our OAR is the first approach to leverage overlap weights in the regularization terms of the meta-learners. Our OAR approach is flexible and works with any existing CATE meta-learner: we demonstrate how OAR can be applied to both parametric and non-parametric second-stage models. Furthermore, we propose debiased versions of our OAR that preserve the Neyman-orthogonality of existing meta-learners and thus ensure more robust inference. Through a series of (semi-)synthetic experiments, we demonstrate that our OAR significantly improves CATE estimation in low-overlap settings in comparison to constant regularization.

The geometry of dynamical systems estimated from trajectory data is a major challenge for machine learning applications. Koopman and transfer operators provide a linear representation of nonlinear dynamics through their spectral decomposition, offering a natural framework for comparison. We propose a novel approach representing each system as a distribution of its joint operator eigenvalues and spectral projectors and defining a metric between systems leveraging optimal transport. The proposed metric is invariant to the sampling frequency of trajectories. It is also computationally efficient, supported by finite-sample convergence guarantees, and enables the computation of Fr echet means, providing interpolation between dynamical systems. Experiments on simulated and real-world datasets show that our approach consistently outperforms standard operator-based distances in machine learning applications, including dimensionality reduction and classification, and provides meaningful interpolation between dynamical systems. Dynamical systems are widely used across scientific and engineering disciplines to model state variables' evolution over time (Lasota & Mackey, 2013). Nonlinear ordinary or partial differential equations typically govern these systems and may incorporate stochastic components (Meyn & Tweedie, 2012). However, in many practical situations, analytical models are unavailable or intractable, motivating the use of data-driven approaches to infer the underlying dynamics from sampled trajectories. In this context, Koopman and transfer operator regressions have emerged as a powerful framework for learning and interpreting dynamical systems from data (Brunton et al., 2022). Rather than directly modeling the evolution of state variables, these operators advance observables (scalar functions defined on the state space) by mapping each to its expected future value conditioned on the current state. Crucially, these operators are linear even when the underlying systems are not linear.

Latent categorical variables are frequently found in deep learning architectures. They can model actions in discrete reinforcement-learning environments, represent categories in latent-variable models, or express relations in graph neural networks. Despite their widespread use, their discrete nature poses significant challenges to gradient-descent learning algorithms. While a substantial body of work has offered improved gradient estimation techniques, we take a complementary approach. Specifically, we: 1) revisit the ubiquitous $\textit{softmax}$ function and demonstrate its limitations from an information-geometric perspective; 2) replace the $\textit{softmax}$ with the $\textit{catnat}$ function, a function composed of a sequence of hierarchical binary splits; we prove that this choice offers significant advantages to gradient descent due to the resulting diagonal Fisher Information Matrix. A rich set of experiments - including graph structure learning, variational autoencoders, and reinforcement learning - empirically show that the proposed function improves the learning efficiency and yields models characterized by consistently higher test performance. $\textit{Catnat}$ is simple to implement and seamlessly integrates into existing codebases. Moreover, it remains compatible with standard training stabilization techniques and, as such, offers a better alternative to the $\textit{softmax}$ function.