Statistical Learning
A Recall-First CNN for Sleep Apnea Screening from Snoring Audio
Mallick, Anushka, Noorain, Afiya, Menon, Ashwin, Solanki, Ashita, Balaji, Keertan
Sleep apnea is a serious sleep-related breathing disorder that is common and can impact health if left untreated. Currently the traditional method for screening and diagnosis is overnight polysomnography. Polysomnography is expensive and takes a lot of time, and is not practical for screening large groups of people. In this paper, we explored a more accessible option, using respiratory audio recordings to spot signs of apnea.We utilized 18 audio files.The approach involved converting breathing sounds into spectrograms, balancing the dataset by oversampling apnea segments, and applying class weights to reduce bias toward the majority class. The model reached a recall of 90.55 for apnea detection. Intentionally, prioritizing catching apnea events over general accuracy. Despite low precision,the high recall suggests potential as a low-cost screening tool that could be used at home or in basic clinical setups, potentially helping identify at-risk individuals much earlier.
Linear Regression in p-adic metric spaces
Baker, Gregory D., McCallum, Scott, Pattinson, Dirk
Many real-world machine learning problems involve inherently hierarchical data, yet traditional approaches rely on Euclidean metrics that fail to capture the discrete, branching nature of hierarchical relationships. We present a theoretical foundation for machine learning in p-adic metric spaces, which naturally respect hierarchical structure. Our main result proves that an n-dimensional plane minimizing the p-adic sum of distances to points in a dataset must pass through at least n + 1 of those points -- a striking contrast to Euclidean regression that highlights how p-adic metrics better align with the discrete nature of hierarchical data. As a corollary, a polynomial of degree n constructed to minimise the p-adic sum of residuals will pass through at least n + 1 points. As a further corollary, a polynomial of degree n approximating a higher degree polynomial at a finite number of points will yield a difference polynomial that has distinct rational roots. We demonstrate the practical significance of this result through two applications in natural language processing: analyzing hierarchical taxonomies and modeling grammatical morphology. These results suggest that p-adic metrics may be fundamental to properly handling hierarchical data structures in machine learning. In hierarchical data, interpolation between points often makes less sense than selecting actual observed points as representatives.
NAIPv2: Debiased Pairwise Learning for Efficient Paper Quality Estimation
Zhao, Penghai, Tian, Jinyu, Xing, Qinghua, Zhang, Xin, Li, Zheng, Qian, Jianjun, Cheng, Ming-Ming, Li, Xiang
The ability to estimate the quality of scientific papers is central to how both humans and AI systems will advance scientific knowledge in the future. However, existing LLM-based estimation methods suffer from high inference cost, whereas the faster direct score regression approach is limited by scale inconsistencies. We present NAIPv2, a debiased and efficient framework for paper quality estimation. NAIPv2 employs pairwise learning within domain-year groups to reduce inconsistencies in reviewer ratings and introduces the Review Tendency Signal (RTS) as a probabilistic integration of reviewer scores and confidences. To support training and evaluation, we further construct NAIDv2, a large-scale dataset of 24,276 ICLR submissions enriched with metadata and detailed structured content. Trained on pairwise comparisons but enabling efficient pointwise prediction at deployment, NAIPv2 achieves state-of-the-art performance (78.2% AUC, 0.432 Spearman), while maintaining scalable, linear-time efficiency at inference. Notably, on unseen NeurIPS submissions, it further demonstrates strong generalization, with predicted scores increasing consistently across decision categories from Rejected to Oral. These findings establish NAIPv2 as a debiased and scalable framework for automated paper quality estimation, marking a step toward future scientific intelligence systems. Code and dataset are released at sway.cloud.microsoft/Pr42npP80MfPhvj8.
Provable In-Context Learning of Nonlinear Regression with Transformers
Li, Hongbo, Duan, Lingjie, Liang, Yingbin
The transformer architecture, which processes sequences of input tokens to produce outputs for query tokens, has revolutionized numerous areas of machine learning. A defining feature of transformers is their ability to perform previously unseen tasks using task specific prompts without updating parameters, a phenomenon known as in-context learning (ICL). Recent research has actively explored the training dynamics behind ICL, with much of the focus on relatively simple tasks such as linear regression and binary classification. To advance the theoretical understanding of ICL, this paper investigates more complex nonlinear regression tasks, aiming to uncover how transformers acquire in-context learning capabilities in these settings. We analyze the stage-wise dynamics of attention during training: attention scores between a query token and its target features grow rapidly in the early phase, then gradually converge to one, while attention to irrelevant features decays more slowly and exhibits oscillatory behavior. Our analysis introduces new proof techniques that explicitly characterize how the nature of general non-degenerate $L$-Lipschitz task functions affects attention weights. Specifically, we identify that the Lipschitz constant $L$ of nonlinear function classes as a key factor governing the convergence dynamics of transformers in ICL. Leveraging these insights, for two distinct regimes depending on whether $L$ is below or above a threshold, we derive different time bounds to guarantee near-zero prediction error. Notably, despite the convergence time depending on the underlying task functions, we prove that query tokens consistently attend to prompt tokens with highly relevant features at convergence, demonstrating the ICL capability of transformers for unseen functions.
Fair CCA for Fair Representation Learning: An ADNI Study
Hou, Bojian, Wang, Zhanliang, Zhou, Zhuoping, Tong, Boning, Wang, Zexuan, Bao, Jingxuan, Duong-Tran, Duy, Long, Qi, Shen, Li
Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is a technique for finding correlations between different data modalities and learning low-dimensional representations. As fairness becomes crucial in machine learning, fair CCA has gained attention. However, previous approaches often overlook the impact on downstream classification tasks, limiting applicability. We propose a novel fair CCA method for fair representation learning, ensuring the projected features are independent of sensitive attributes, thus enhancing fairness without compromising accuracy. We validate our method on synthetic data and real-world data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), demonstrating its ability to maintain high correlation analysis performance while improving fairness in classification tasks. Our work enables fair machine learning in neuroimaging studies where unbiased analysis is essential. Code is available in https://github.com/ZhanliangAaronWang/FR-CCA-ADNI.
PCoreSet: Effective Active Learning through Knowledge Distillation from Vision-Language Models
Kang, Seongjae, Lee, Dong Bok, Jang, Hyungjoon, Kim, Dongseop, Hwang, Sung Ju
Knowledge distillation (KD) is a widely used framework for training compact, task-specific models by transferring the knowledge from teacher models. However, its application to active learning (AL), which aims to minimize annotation costs through iterative sample selection, remains underexplored. This gap stems from the fact that KD typically assumes access to sufficient labeled data, whereas AL operates in data-scarce scenarios where task-specific teacher models are often unavailable. In this paper, we first introduce ActiveKD, a framework that integrates AL with KD by leveraging the zero- and few-shot capabilities of large vision-language models (VLMs). A key aspect of ActiveKD is the structured prediction bias of VLMs-i.e., their predictions form clusters in the probability space. We regard this structure as an inductive bias of the teacher model, capturing generalizable output patterns beneficial to student learning. To exploit this bias, we propose Probabilistic CoreSet (PCoreSet), a selection strategy that maximizes coverage in the probability space rather than the feature space. PCoreSet strategically selects probabilistically diverse unlabeled samples, facilitating more efficient transfer of teacher knowledge under limited annotation budgets. Extensive evaluations on 11 datasets show that ActiveKD consistently improves performance across selection methods (e.g., +29.07% on ImageNet, averaged over methods). Under ActiveKD, PCoreSet ranks first in 64/73 settings (approximately 87.7%) across 5 student and 3 teacher networks, always achieving the best performance except for first 2 AL rounds. Our code is available at https://github.com/erjui/PCoreSet.
ExPLAIND: Unifying Model, Data, and Training Attribution to Study Model Behavior
Eichin, Florian, Du, Yupei, Mondorf, Philipp, Matveev, Maria, Plank, Barbara, Hedderich, Michael A.
Post-hoc interpretability methods typically attribute a model's behavior to its components, data, or training trajectory in isolation. This leads to explanations that lack a unified view and may miss key interactions. While combining existing methods or applying them at different training stages offers broader insights, such approaches usually lack theoretical support. In this work, we present ExPLAIND, a unified framework that integrates all these perspectives. First, we generalize recent work on gradient path kernels, which reformulate models trained by gradient descent as a kernel machine, to realistic settings like AdamW. We empirically validate that a CNN and a Transformer are accurately replicated by this reformulation. Second, we derive novel parameter- and step-wise influence scores from the kernel feature maps. Their effectiveness for parameter pruning is comparable to existing methods, demonstrating their value for model component attribution. Finally, jointly interpreting model components and data over the training process, we leverage ExPLAIND to analyze a Transformer that exhibits Grokking. Our findings support previously proposed stages of Grokking, while refining the final phase as one of alignment of input embeddings and final layers around a representation pipeline learned after the memorization phase. Overall, ExPLAIND provides a theoretically grounded, unified framework to interpret model behavior and training dynamics.
Federated Causal Inference from Multi-Site Observational Data via Propensity Score Aggregation
Rรฉmi, Khellaf, Aurรฉlien, Bellet, Julie, Josse
Causal inference typically assumes centralized access to individual-level data. Yet, in practice, data are often decentralized across multiple sites, making centralization infeasible due to privacy, logistical, or legal constraints. We address this problem by estimating the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) from decentralized observational data via a Federated Learning (FL) approach, allowing inference through the exchange of aggregate statistics rather than individual-level data. We propose a novel method to estimate propensity scores by computing a federated weighted average of local scores with Membership Weights (MW)--probabilities of site membership conditional on covariates--which can be flexibly estimated using parametric or non-parametric classification models. Unlike density ratio weights (DW) from the transportability and generalization literature, which either rely on strong modeling assumptions or cannot be implemented in FL, MW can be estimated using standard FL algorithms and are more robust, as they support flexible, non-parametric models--making them the preferred choice in multi-site settings with strict data-sharing constraints. The resulting propensity scores are used to construct Federated Inverse Propensity Weighting (Fed-IPW) and Augmented IPW (Fed-AIPW) estimators. Unlike meta-analysis methods, which fail when any site violates positivity, our approach leverages heterogeneity in treatment assignment across sites to improve overlap. We show that Fed-IPW and Fed-AIPW perform well under site-level heterogeneity in sample sizes, treatment mechanisms, and covariate distributions. Both theoretical analysis and experiments on simulated and real-world data highlight their advantages over meta-analysis and related methods.
TabINR: An Implicit Neural Representation Framework for Tabular Data Imputation
Ochs, Vincent, Bieder, Florentin, Hadramy, Sidaty el, Friedrich, Paul, Taha-Mehlitz, Stephanie, Taha, Anas, Cattin, Philippe C.
Tabular data builds the basis for a wide range of applications, yet real-world datasets are frequently incomplete due to collection errors, privacy restrictions, or sensor failures. As missing values degrade the performance or hinder the applicability of downstream models, and while simple imputing strategies tend to introduce bias or distort the underlying data distribution, we require imputers that provide high-quality imputations, are robust across dataset sizes and yield fast inference. INR, an auto-decoder based Implicit Neural Representation (INR) framework that models tables as neural functions. Building on recent advances in generalizable INRs, we introduce learnable row and feature embeddings that effectively deal with the discrete structure of tabular data and can be inferred from partial observations, enabling instance adaptive imputations without modifying the trained model. We evaluate our framework across a diverse range of twelve real-world datasets and multiple missingness mechanisms, demonstrating consistently strong imputation accuracy, mostly matching or outperforming classical (KNN, MICE, MissForest) and deep learning based models (GAIN, ReMasker), with the clearest gains on high-dimensional datasets. Tabular data remains one of the most common data formats across domains such as healthcare, finance, and the social sciences (Shwartz-Ziv & Armon, 2022). In these fields, missing values are ubiquitous and can severely degrade the performance of downstream machine learning models. Poor handling of missingness not only reduces predictive accuracy but may also lead to biased decisions, with real-world consequences for applications such as medical diagnostics or financial risk assessment. These challenges make robust imputation a critical step for trustworthy tabular learning and data-driven decision making (Rubin, 1976).
Breaking the Euclidean Barrier: Hyperboloid-Based Biological Sequence Analysis
Ali, Sarwan, Mansoor, Haris, Patterson, Murray
Genomic sequence analysis plays a crucial role in various scientific and medical domains. Traditional machine-learning approaches often struggle to capture the complex relationships and hierarchical structures of sequence data when working in high-dimensional Euclidean spaces. This limitation hinders accurate sequence classification and similarity measurement. To address these challenges, this research proposes a method to transform the feature representation of biological sequences into the hyperboloid space. By applying a transformation, the sequences are mapped onto the hyperboloid, preserving their inherent structural information. Once the sequences are represented in the hyperboloid space, a kernel matrix is computed based on the hyperboloid features. The kernel matrix captures the pairwise similarities between sequences, enabling more effective analysis of biological sequence relationships. This approach leverages the inner product of the hyperboloid feature vectors to measure the similarity between pairs of sequences. The experimental evaluation of the proposed approach demonstrates its efficacy in capturing important sequence correlations and improving classification accuracy.