Many methods aim to enhance time series forecasting by decomposing the series through intricate model structures and prior knowledge, yet they are inevitably limited by computational complexity and the robustness of the assumptions. Our research uncovers that in the complex domain and higher-order hypercomplex spaces, the characteristic frequencies of time series naturally decrease. Leveraging this insight, we propose Numerion, a time series forecasting model based on multiple hypercomplex spaces. Specifically, grounded in theoretical support, we generalize linear layers and activation functions to hypercomplex spaces of arbitrary power-of-two dimensions and introduce a novel Real-Hypercomplex-Real Domain Multi-Layer Perceptron (RHR-MLP) architecture. Numerion utilizes multiple RHR-MLPs to map time series into hypercomplex spaces of varying dimensions, naturally decomposing and independently modeling the series, and adaptively fuses the latent patterns exhibited in different spaces through a dynamic fusion mechanism. Experiments validate the model`s performance, achieving state-of-the-art results on multiple public datasets. Visualizations and quantitative analyses comprehensively demonstrate the ability of multi-dimensional RHR-MLPs to naturally decompose time series and reveal the tendency of higher dimensional hypercomplex spaces to capture lower frequency features.

Differentiable logic gate networks (DLGNs) exhibit extraordinary efficiency at inference while sustaining competitive accuracy. But vanishing gradients, discretization errors, and high training cost impede scaling these networks. Even with dedicated parameter initialization schemes from subsequent works, increasing depth still harms accuracy. We show that the root cause of these issues lies in the underlying parametrization of logic gate neurons themselves. To overcome this issue, we propose a reparametrization that also shrinks the parameter size logarithmically in the number of inputs per gate. For binary inputs, this already reduces the model size by 4x, speeds up the backward pass by up to 1.86x, and converges in 8.5x fewer training steps. On top of that, we show that the accuracy on CIFAR-100 remains stable and sometimes superior to the original parametrization.

Accurate prediction of financial market volatility is critical for risk management, derivatives pricing, and investment strategy. In this study, we propose a multitude of regime-switching methods to improve the prediction of S&P 500 volatility by capturing structural changes in the market across time. We use eleven years of SPX data, from May 1st, 2014 to May 27th, 2025, to compute daily realized volatility (RV) from 5-minute intraday log returns, adjusted for irregular trading days. To enhance forecast accuracy, we engineered features to capture both historical dynamics and forward-looking market sentiment across regimes. The regime-switching methods include a soft Markov switching algorithm to estimate soft-regime probabilities, a distributional spectral clustering method that uses XGBoost to assign clusters at prediction time, and a coefficient-based soft regime algorithm that extracts HAR coefficients from time segments segmented through the Mood test and clusters through Bayesian GMM for soft regime weights, using XGBoost to predict regime probabilities. Models were evaluated across three time periods--before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The coefficient-based clustering algorithm outperformed all other models, including the baseline autoregressive model, during all time periods. Additionally, each model was evaluated on its recursive forecasting performance for 5- and 10-day horizons during each time period. The findings of this study demonstrate the value of regime-aware modeling frameworks and soft clustering approaches in improving volatility forecasting, especially during periods of heightened uncertainty and structural change.

A recent breakthrough in nonconvex optimization is the online-to-nonconvex conversion framework of [Cutkosky et al., 2023], which reformulates the task of finding an $\varepsilon$-first-order stationary point as an online learning problem. When both the gradient and the Hessian are Lipschitz continuous, instantiating this framework with two different online learners achieves a complexity of $O(\varepsilon^{-1.75}\log(1/\varepsilon))$ in the deterministic case and a complexity of $O(\varepsilon^{-3.5})$ in the stochastic case. However, this approach suffers from several limitations: (i) the deterministic method relies on a complex double-loop scheme that solves a fixed-point equation to construct hint vectors for an optimistic online learner, introducing an extra logarithmic factor; (ii) the stochastic method assumes a bounded second-order moment of the stochastic gradient, which is stronger than standard variance bounds; and (iii) different online learning algorithms are used in the two settings. In this paper, we address these issues by introducing an online optimistic gradient method based on a novel doubly optimistic hint function. Specifically, we use the gradient at an extrapolated point as the hint, motivated by two optimistic assumptions: that the difference between the hint and the target gradient remains near constant, and that consecutive update directions change slowly due to smoothness. Our method eliminates the need for a double loop and removes the logarithmic factor. Furthermore, by simply replacing full gradients with stochastic gradients and under the standard assumption that their variance is bounded by $σ^2$, we obtain a unified algorithm with complexity $O(\varepsilon^{-1.75} + σ^2 \varepsilon^{-3.5})$, smoothly interpolating between the best-known deterministic rate and the optimal stochastic rate.

We propose the multistep port-Hamiltonian Gaussian process (MS-PHS GP) to learn physically consistent continuous-time dynamics and a posterior over the Hamiltonian from noisy, irregularly-sampled trajectories. By placing a GP prior on the Hamiltonian surface $H$ and encoding variable-step multistep integrator constraints as finite linear functionals, MS-PHS GP enables closed-form conditioning of both the vector field and the Hamiltonian surface without latent states, while enforcing energy balance and passivity by design. We state a finite-sample vector-field bound that separates the estimation and variable-step discretization terms. Lastly, we demonstrate improved vector-field recovery and well-calibrated Hamiltonian uncertainty on mass-spring, Van der Pol, and Duffing benchmarks.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have shown impressive performance on complex reasoning tasks such as mathematics, yet they also display misbehaviors that expose their limitations. In particular, when faced with hard questions, LRMs often engage in unproductive reasoning until context limit, producing wrong answers while wasting substantial computation. This phenomenon reflects a fundamental issue: current answering paradigms overlook the relationship between questions and LRMs' capability boundaries. In this paper, we investigate whether LRMs possess self-awareness of capability boundaries. We begin by an observation that LRMs may know what they cannot solve through expressed reasoning confidence. For black-box models, we find that reasoning expressions reveal boundary signals, with accelerated growing confidence trajectory for solvable problems but convergent uncertainty trajectory for unsolvable ones. For white-box models, we show that hidden states of the last input token encode boundary information, with solvable and unsolvable problems linearly separable even before reasoning begins. Building on these findings, we propose two simple yet effective optimization strategies: reasoning expression monitoring and hidden states monitoring. Experiments demonstrate that these boundary-aware strategies enable LRMs to avoid unproductive reasoning without sacrificing accuracy, significantly improving reliability and efficiency by cutting token usage up to 62.7 - 93.6%. Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities on complex reasoning tasks such as mathematics (Guo et al., 2025; Jaech et al., 2024; Ahn et al., 2024). However, they also exhibit a range of misbehaviors that reveal the limitations of their capabilities (Kalai et al., 2025; Y ao et al., 2025b; Sun et al., 2025; Zhang et al., 2024).

Given a set of financial transactions (who buys from whom, when, and for how much), as well as prior information from buyers and sellers, how can we find fraudulent transactions? If we have labels for some transactions for known types of fraud, we can build a classifier. However, we also want to find new types of fraud, still unknown to the domain experts ('Detection'). Moreover, we also want to provide evidence to experts that supports our opinion ('Justification'). In this paper, we propose FRAUDGUESS, to achieve two goals: (a) for 'Detection', it spots new types of fraud as micro-clusters in a carefully designed feature space; (b) for 'Justification', it uses visualization and heatmaps for evidence, as well as an interactive dashboard for deep dives. FRAUDGUESS is used in real life and is currently considered for deployment in an Anonymous Financial Institution (AFI). Thus, we also present the three new behaviors that FRAUDGUESS discovered in a real, million-scale financial dataset. Two of these behaviors are deemed fraudulent or suspicious by domain experts, catching hundreds of fraudulent transactions that would otherwise go un-noticed.

While transformer-based foundation models excel at forecasting routine patterns, two questions remain: do they internalize semantic concepts such as market regimes, or merely fit curves? And can their internal representations be leveraged to simulate rare, high-stakes events such as market crashes? To investigate this, we introduce activation transplantation, a causal intervention that manipulates hidden states by imposing the statistical moments of one event (e.g., a historical crash) onto another (e.g., a calm period) during the forward pass. This procedure deterministically steers forecasts: injecting crash semantics induces downturn predictions, while injecting calm semantics suppresses crashes and restores stability. Beyond binary control, we find that models encode a graded notion of event severity, with the latent vector norm directly correlating with the magnitude of systemic shocks. Validated across two architecturally distinct TSFMs, Toto (decoder only) and Chronos (encoder-decoder), our results demonstrate that steerable, semantically grounded representations are a robust property of large time series transformers. Our findings provide evidence for a latent concept space that governs model predictions, shifting interpretability from post-hoc attribution to direct causal intervention, and enabling semantic "what-if" analysis for strategic stress-testing.

Modern Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDTs) accelerate split finding with histogram-based binning, which reduces complexity from $O(N\log N)$ to $O(N)$ by aggregating gradients into fixed-size bins. However, the predominant quantile binning strategy - designed to distribute data points evenly among bins -- may overlook critical boundary values that could enhance predictive performance. In this work, we consider a novel approach that replaces quantile binning with a $k$-means discretizer initialized with quantile bins, and justify the swap with a proof showing how, for any $L$-Lipschitz function, k-means maximizes the worst-case explained variance of Y obtained when treating all values in a given bin as equivalent. We test this swap against quantile and uniform binning on 33 OpenML datasets plus synthetics that control for modality, skew, and bin budget. Across 18 regression datasets, k-means shows no statistically significant losses at the 5% level and wins in three cases-most strikingly a 55% MSE drop on one particularly skewed dataset-even though k-means' mean reciprocal rank (MRR) is slightly lower (0.65 vs 0.72). On the 15 classification datasets the two methods are statistically tied (MRR 0.70 vs 0.68) with gaps $\leq$0.2 pp. Synthetic experiments confirm consistently large MSE gains - typically >20% and rising to 90% as outlier magnitude increases or bin budget drops. We find that k-means keeps error on par with exhaustive (no-binning) splitting when extra cuts add little value, yet still recovers key split points that quantile overlooks. As such, we advocate for a built-in bin_method=k-means flag, especially in regression tasks and in tight-budget settings such as the 32-64-bin GPU regime - because it is a "safe default" with large upside, yet adds only a one-off, cacheable overhead ($\approx$ 3.5s per feature to bin 10M rows on one Apple M1 thread).

Modern regression analyses are often undermined by covariate measurement error, misspecification of the regression model, and misspecification of the measurement error distribution. We present, to the best of our knowledge, the first Bayesian nonparametric framework targeting total robustness that tackles all three challenges in general nonlinear regression. The framework assigns a Dirichlet process prior to the latent co-variate-response distribution and updates it with posterior pseudo-samples of the latent covariates, thereby providing the Dirichlet process posterior with observation-informed latent inputs and yielding estimators that minimise the discrepancy between Dirichlet process realisations and the model-induced joint law. This design allows practitioners to (i) encode prior beliefs, (ii) choose between pseudo-sampling latent covariates or working directly with error-prone observations, and (iii) tune the influence of prior and data. We establish generalisation bounds that tighten whenever the prior or pseudo-sample generator aligns with the underlying data generating process, ensuring robustness without sacrificing consistency. A gradient-based algorithm enables efficient computations; simulations and two real-world studies show lower estimation error and reduced estimation sensitivity to misspecification compared to Bayesian and frequentist competitors. The framework, therefore, offers a practical and interpretable paradigm for trustworthy regression when data and models are jointly imperfect.