In classical canonical correlation analysis (CCA), the goal is to determine the linear transformations of two random vectors into two new random variables that are most strongly correlated. Canonical variables are pairs of these new random variables, while canonical correlations are correlations between these pairs. In this paper, we propose and study two generalizations of this classical method: (1) Instead of two random vectors we study more complex data structures that appear in important applications. In these structures, there are $L$ features, each described by $p_l$ scalars, $1 \le l \le L$. We observe $n$ such objects over $T$ time points. We derive a suitable analog of the CCA for such data. Our approach relies on embeddings into Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces, and covers several related data structures as well. (2) We develop an analogous approach for multidimensional random processes. In this case, the experimental units are multivariate continuous, square-integrable functions over a given interval. These functions are modeled as elements of a Hilbert space, so in this case, we define the multiple functional canonical correlation analysis, MFCCA. We justify our approaches by their application to two data sets and suitable large sample theory. We derive consistency rates for the related transformation and correlation estimators, and show that it is possible to relax two common assumptions on the compactness of the underlying cross-covariance operators and the independence of the data.

Domain generalization (DG) is the problem of generalizing from several distributions (or domains), for which labeled training data are available, to a new test domain for which no labeled data is available. A common finding in the DG literature is that it is difficult to outperform empirical risk minimization (ERM) on the pooled training data. In this work, we argue that this finding has primarily been reported for datasets satisfying a \emph{covariate shift} assumption. When the dataset satisfies a \emph{posterior drift} assumption instead, we show that ``domain-informed ERM,'' wherein feature vectors are augmented with domain-specific information, outperforms pooling ERM. These claims are supported by a theoretical framework and experiments on language and vision tasks.

Survival analysis is a statistical technique used to estimate the time until an event occurs. Although it is applied across a wide range of fields, adjusting for reporting delays under practical constraints remains a significant challenge in the insurance industry. Such delays render event occurrences unobservable when their reports are subject to right censoring. This issue becomes particularly critical when estimating hazard rates for newly enrolled cohorts with limited follow-up due to administrative censoring. Our study addresses this challenge by jointly modeling the parametric hazard functions of event occurrences and report timings. The joint probability distribution is marginalized over the latent event occurrence status. We construct an estimator for the proposed survival model and establish its asymptotic consistency. Furthermore, we develop an expectation-maximization algorithm to compute its estimates. Using these findings, we propose a two-stage estimation procedure based on a parametric proportional hazards model to evaluate observations subject to administrative censoring. Experimental results demonstrate that our method effectively improves the timeliness of risk evaluation for newly enrolled cohorts.

Conformal prediction offers finite-sample coverage guarantees under minimal assumptions. However, existing methods treat the entire modeling process as a black box, overlooking opportunities to exploit modular structure. We introduce a conformal prediction framework for two-stage sequential models, where an upstream predictor generates intermediate representations for a downstream model. By decomposing the overall prediction residual into stage-specific components, our method enables practitioners to attribute uncertainty to specific pipeline stages. We develop a risk-controlled parameter selection procedure using family-wise error rate (FWER) control to calibrate stage-wise scaling parameters, and propose an adaptive extension for non-stationary settings that preserves long-run coverage guarantees. Experiments on synthetic distribution shifts, as well as real-world supply chain and stock market data, demonstrate that our approach maintains coverage under conditions that degrade standard conformal methods, while providing interpretable stage-wise uncertainty attribution. This framework offers diagnostic advantages and robust coverage that standard conformal methods lack.

Traditional conformal prediction methods construct prediction sets such that the true label falls within the set with a user-specified coverage level. However, poorly chosen coverage levels can result in uninformative predictions, either producing overly conservative sets when the coverage level is too high, or empty sets when it is too low. Moreover, the fixed coverage level cannot adapt to the specific characteristics of each individual example, limiting the flexibility and efficiency of these methods. In this work, we leverage recent advances in e-values and post-hoc conformal inference, which allow the use of data-dependent coverage levels while maintaining valid statistical guarantees. We propose to optimize an adaptive coverage policy by training a neural network using a leave-one-out procedure on the calibration set, allowing the coverage level and the resulting prediction set size to vary with the difficulty of each individual example. We support our approach with theoretical coverage guarantees and demonstrate its practical benefits through a series of experiments.

Learning graphical conditional independence structures from nonlinear, continuous or mixed data is a central challenge in machine learning and the sciences, and many existing methods struggle to scale to thousands of samples or hundreds of variables. We introduce two basis-expansion tools for scalable causal discovery. First, the Basis Function BIC (BF-BIC) score uses truncated additive expansions to approximate nonlinear dependencies. BF-BIC is theoretically consistent under additive models and extends to post-nonlinear (PNL) models via an invertible reparameterization. It remains robust under moderate interactions and supports mixed data through a degenerate-Gaussian embedding for discrete variables. In simulations with fully nonlinear neural causal models (NCMs), BF-BIC outperforms kernel- and constraint-based methods (e.g., KCI, RFCI) in both accuracy and runtime. Second, the Basis Function Likelihood Ratio Test (BF-LRT) provides an approximate conditional independence test that is substantially faster than kernel tests while retaining competitive accuracy. Extensive simulations and a real-data application to Canadian wildfire risk show that, when integrated into hybrid searches, BF-based methods enable interpretable and scalable causal discovery. Implementations are available in Python, R, and Java.

This article introduces the theory of offline reinforcement learning in large state spaces, where good policies are learned from historical data without online interactions with the environment. Key concepts introduced include expressivity assumptions on function approximation (e.g., Bellman completeness vs. realizability) and data coverage (e.g., all-policy vs. single-policy coverage). A rich landscape of algorithms and results is described, depending on the assumptions one is willing to make and the sample and computational complexity guarantees one wishes to achieve. We also discuss open questions and connections to adjacent areas.

The growing availability of large and complex datasets has increased interest in temporal stochastic processes that can capture stylized facts such as marginal skewness, non-Gaussian tails, long memory, and even non-Markovian dynamics. While such models are often easy to simulate from, parameter estimation remains challenging. Simulation-based inference (SBI) offers a promising way forward, but existing methods typically require large training datasets or complex architectures and frequently yield confidence (credible) regions that fail to attain their nominal values, raising doubts on the reliability of estimates for the very features that motivate the use of these models. To address these challenges, we propose a fast and accurate, sample-efficient SBI framework for amortized posterior inference applicable to intractable stochastic processes. The proposed approach relies on two main steps: first, we learn the posterior density by decomposing it sequentially across parameter dimensions. Then, we use Chebyshev polynomial approximations to efficiently generate independent posterior samples, enabling accurate inference even when Markov chain Monte Carlo methods mix poorly. We further develop novel diagnostic tools for SBI in this context, as well as post-hoc calibration techniques; the latter not only lead to performance improvements of the learned inferential tool, but also to the ability to reuse it directly with new time series of varying lengths, thus amortizing the training cost. We demonstrate the method's effectiveness on trawl processes, a class of flexible infinitely divisible models that generalize univariate Gaussian processes, applied to energy demand data.

We present a theoretical framework for M-FISHER, a method for sequential distribution shift detection and stable adaptation in streaming data. For detection, we construct an exponential martingale from non-conformity scores and apply Ville's inequality to obtain time-uniform guarantees on false alarm control, ensuring statistical validity at any stopping time. Under sustained shifts, we further bound the expected detection delay as $\mathcal{O}(\log(1/δ)/Γ)$, where $Γ$ reflects the post-shift information gain, thereby linking detection efficiency to distributional divergence. For adaptation, we show that Fisher-preconditioned updates of prompt parameters implement natural gradient descent on the distributional manifold, yielding locally optimal updates that minimize KL divergence while preserving stability and parameterization invariance. Together, these results establish M-FISHER as a principled approach for robust, anytime-valid detection and geometrically stable adaptation in sequential decision-making under covariate shift.

When training data are fragmented across batches or federated-learned across different geographic locations, trained models manifest performance degradation. That degradation partly owes to covariate shift induced by data having been fragmented across time and space and producing dissimilar empirical training distributions. Each fragment's distribution is slightly different to a hypothetical unfragmented training distribution of covariates, and to the single validation distribution. To address this problem, we propose Fisher Information for Robust fEderated validation (\textbf{FIRE}). This method accumulates fragmentation-induced covariate shift divergences from the global training distribution via an approximate Fisher information. That term, which we prove to be a more computationally-tractable estimate, is then used as a per-fragment loss penalty, enabling scalable distribution alignment. FIRE outperforms importance weighting benchmarks by $5.1\%$ at maximum and federated learning (FL) benchmarks by up to $5.3\%$ on shifted validation sets.