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 Statistical Learning


MuFFIN: Multifaceted Pronunciation Feedback Model with Interactive Hierarchical Neural Modeling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Computer-assisted pronunciation training (CAPT) manages to facilitate second-language (L2) learners to practice pronunciation skills by offering timely and instructive feedback. To examine pronunciation proficiency from multiple facets, existing methods for CAPT broadly fall into two categories: mispronunciation detection and diagnosis (MDD) as well as automatic pronunciation assessment (APA). The former aims to pinpoint phonetic pronunciation errors and provide diagnostic feedback, while the latter seeks instead to quantify pronunciation proficiency pertaining to various aspects. Despite the natural complementarity between MDD and APA, researchers and practitioners, however, often treat them as independent tasks with disparate modeling paradigms. In light of this, we in this paper first introduce MuFFIN, a Multi-Faceted pronunciation Feedback model with an Interactive hierarchical Neural architecture, to jointly address the tasks of MDD and APA. To better capture the nuanced distinctions between phonemes in the feature space, a novel phoneme-contrastive ordinal regularization mechanism is then put forward to optimize the proposed model to generate more phoneme-discriminative features while factoring in the ordinality of the aspect scores. In addition, to address the intricate data imbalance problem in MDD, we design a simple yet effective training objective, which is specifically tailored to perturb the outputs of a phoneme classifier with the phoneme-specific variations, so as to better render the distribution of predicted phonemes meanwhile considering their mispronunciation characteristics. A series of experiments conducted on the Speechocean762 benchmark dataset demonstrates the efficacy of our method in relation to several cutting-edge baselines, showing state-of-the-art performance on both the APA and MDD tasks.


PLSemanticsBench: Large Language Models As Programming Language Interpreters

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As large language models (LLMs) excel at code reasoning, a natural question arises: can an LLM execute programs (i.e., act as an interpreter) purely based on a programming language's formal semantics? If so, it will enable rapid prototyping of new programming languages and language features. We study this question using the imperative language IMP (a subset of C), formalized via small-step operational semantics (SOS) and rewriting-based operational semantics (K-semantics). We introduce three evaluation sets-Human-Written, LLM-Translated, and Fuzzer- Generated-whose difficulty is controlled by code-complexity metrics spanning the size, control-flow, and data-flow axes. Given a program and its semantics formalized with SOS/K-semantics, models are evaluated on three tasks ranging from coarse to fine: (1) final-state prediction, (2) semantic rule prediction, and (3) execution trace prediction. To distinguish pretraining memorization from semantic competence, we define two nonstandard semantics obtained through systematic mutations of the standard rules. Across strong code/reasoning LLMs, performance drops under nonstandard semantics despite high performance under the standard one. We further find that (i) there are patterns to different model failures, (ii) most reasoning models perform exceptionally well on coarse grained tasks involving reasoning about highly complex programs often containing nested loop depths beyond five, and surprisingly, (iii) providing formal semantics helps on simple programs but often hurts on more complex ones. Overall, the results show a promise that LLMs could serve as programming language interpreters, but points to the lack of their robust semantics understanding. We release the benchmark and the supporting code at https://github.com/EngineeringSoftware/PLSemanticsBench.


Uncertainty-Guided Model Selection for Tabular Foundation Models in Biomolecule Efficacy Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In-context learners like TabPFN are promising for biomolecule efficacy prediction, where established molecular feature sets and relevant experimental results can serve as powerful contextual examples. However, their performance is highly sensitive to the provided context, making strategies like post-hoc ensembling of models trained on different data subsets a viable approach. An open question is how to select the best models for the ensemble without access to ground truth labels. In this study, we investigate an uncertainty-guided strategy for model selection. We demonstrate on an siRNA knockdown efficacy task that a TabPFN model using straightforward sequence-based features can surpass specialized state-of-the-art predictors. We also show that the model's predicted inter-quantile range (IQR), a measure of its uncertainty, has a negative correlation with true prediction error. We developed the OligoICP method, which selects and averages an ensemble of models with the lowest mean IQR for siRNA efficacy prediction, achieving superior performance compared to naive ensembling or using a single model trained on all available data. This finding highlights model uncertainty as a powerful, label-free heuristic for optimizing biomolecule efficacy predictions.


TimeSeriesScientist: A General-Purpose AI Agent for Time Series Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Time series forecasting is central to decision-making in domains as diverse as energy, finance, climate, and public health. In practice, forecasters face thousands of short, noisy series that vary in frequency, quality, and horizon, where the dominant cost lies not in model fitting, but in the labor-intensive preprocessing, validation, and ensembling required to obtain reliable predictions. Prevailing statistical and deep learning models are tailored to specific datasets or domains and generalize poorly. A general, domain-agnostic framework that minimizes human intervention is urgently in demand. In this paper, we introduce TimeSeriesScientist (TSci), the first LLM-driven agentic framework for general time series forecasting. The framework comprises four specialized agents: Curator performs LLM-guided diagnostics augmented by external tools that reason over data statistics to choose targeted preprocessing; Planner narrows the hypothesis space of model choice by leveraging multi-modal diagnostics and self-planning over the input; Forecaster performs model fitting and validation and, based on the results, adaptively selects the best model configuration as well as ensemble strategy to make final predictions; and Reporter synthesizes the whole process into a comprehensive, transparent report. With transparent natural-language rationales and comprehensive reports, TSci transforms the forecasting workflow into a white-box system that is both interpretable and extensible across tasks. Empirical results on eight established benchmarks demonstrate that TSci consistently outperforms both statistical and LLM-based baselines, reducing forecast error by an average of 10.4% and 38.2%, respectively. Moreover, TSci produces a clear and rigorous report that makes the forecasting workflow more transparent and interpretable.


MAPGD: Multi-Agent Prompt Gradient Descent for Collaborative Prompt Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Prompt engineering is crucial for fully leveraging large language models (LLMs), yet most existing optimization methods follow a single trajectory, resulting in limited adaptability, gradient conflicts, and high computational overhead. We propose MAPGD (Multi-Agent Prompt Gradient Descent), a novel framework that reconceptualizes prompt optimization as a collaborative process among specialized agents. Each agent focuses on a distinct refinement dimension, such as instruction clarity, example selection, format structure, or stylistic adaptation, and their contributions are coordinated through semantic gradient embedding, conflict detection, and fusion. To further enhance robustness and stability, MAPGD introduces two new mechanisms: Hypersphere Constrained Gradient Clustering (HCGC), which enforces angular margin constraints for compact and well-separated clusters, and Channel Adaptive Agent Weighting (CAAW), which dynamically reweights agent contributions based on validation performance. Experiments on classification and reasoning benchmarks show that MAPGD consistently surpasses single-agent and random baselines in both accuracy and efficiency. Ablation studies confirm the effectiveness of gradient fusion, agent specialization, and conflict resolution. Together, these components establish MAPGD as a unified, gradient-based, and interpretable framework for robust prompt optimization with theoretical convergence guarantees.


Attribute Fusion-based Classifier on Framework of Belief Structure

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) provides a powerful framework for modeling uncertainty and has been widely applied to multi-attribute classification tasks. However, traditional DST - based attribute fusion-based classifiers suffer from oversimplified membership function modeling and limited exploitation of the belief structure brought by basic probability assignment (BPA), reducing their effectiveness in complex real-world scenarios. This paper presents an enhanced attribute fusion-based classifier that addresses these limitations through two key innovations. First, we adopt a selective modeling strategy that utilizes both single Gaussian and Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) for membership function construction, with model selection guided by cross-validation and a tailored evaluation metric. Second, we introduce a novel method to transform the possibility distribution into a BPA by combining simple BPAs derived from normalized possibility distributions, enabling a much richer and more flexible representation of uncertain information. Furthermore, we apply the belief structure-based BPA generation method to the evidential K-Nearest Neighbors (EKNN) classifier, enhancing its ability to incorporate uncertainty information into decision-making. Comprehensive experiments on benchmark datasets are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed attribute fusion-based classifier and the enhanced evidential K-Nearest Neighbors classifier in comparison with both evidential classifiers and conventional machine learning classifiers. The results demonstrate that the proposed classifier outperforms the best existing evidential classifier, achieving an average accuracy improvement of 4.86%, while maintaining low variance, thus confirming its superior effectiveness and robustness.


Constrained free energy minimization for the design of thermal states and stabilizer thermodynamic systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A quantum thermodynamic system is described by a Hamiltonian and a list of conserved, non-commuting charges, and a fundamental goal is to determine the minimum energy of the system subject to constraints on the charges. Recently, [Liu et al., arXiv:2505.04514] proposed first- and second-order classical and hybrid quantum-classical algorithms for solving a dual chemical potential maximization problem, and they proved that these algorithms converge to global optima by means of gradient-ascent approaches. In this paper, we benchmark these algorithms on several problems of interest in thermodynamics, including one- and two-dimensional quantum Heisenberg models with nearest and next-to-nearest neighbor interactions and with the charges set to the total x, y, and z magnetizations. We also offer an alternative compelling interpretation of these algorithms as methods for designing ground and thermal states of controllable Hamiltonians, with potential applications in molecular and material design. Furthermore, we introduce stabilizer thermodynamic systems as thermodynamic systems based on stabilizer codes, with the Hamiltonian constructed from a given code's stabilizer operators and the charges constructed from the code's logical operators. We benchmark the aforementioned algorithms on several examples of stabilizer thermodynamic systems, including those constructed from the one-to-three-qubit repetition code, the perfect one-to-five-qubit code, and the two-to-four-qubit error-detecting code. Finally, we observe that the aforementioned hybrid quantum-classical algorithms, when applied to stabilizer thermodynamic systems, can serve as alternative methods for encoding qubits into stabilizer codes at a fixed temperature, and we provide an effective method for warm-starting these encoding algorithms whenever a single qubit is encoded into multiple physical qubits.


Investigating Forecasting Models for Pandemic Infections Using Heterogeneous Data Sources: A 2-year Study with COVID-19

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Emerging in December 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread health, economic, and social disruptions. Rapid global transmission overwhelmed healthcare systems, resulting in high infection rates, hospitalisations, and fatalities. To minimise the spread, governments implemented several non-pharmaceutical interventions like lockdowns and travel restrictions. While effective in controlling transmission, these measures also posed significant economic and societal challenges. Although the WHO declared COVID-19 no longer a global health emergency in May 2023, its impact persists, shaping public health strategies. The vast amount of data collected during the pandemic offers valuable insights into disease dynamics, transmission, and intervention effectiveness. Leveraging these insights can improve forecasting models, enhancing preparedness and response to future outbreaks while mitigating their social and economic impact. This paper presents a large-scale case study on COVID-19 forecasting in Cyprus, utilising a two-year dataset that integrates epidemiological data, vaccination records, policy measures, and weather conditions. We analyse infection trends, assess forecasting performance, and examine the influence of external factors on disease dynamics. The insights gained contribute to improved pandemic preparedness and response strategies.


DeepBoost-AF: A Novel Unsupervised Feature Learning and Gradient Boosting Fusion for Robust Atrial Fibrillation Detection in Raw ECG Signals

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a prevalent cardiac arrhythmia associated with elevated health risks, where timely detection is pivotal for mitigating stroke-related morbidity. This study introduces an innovative hybrid methodology integrating unsupervised deep learning and gradient boosting models to improve AF detection. A 19-layer deep convolutional autoencoder (DCAE) is coupled with three boosting classifiers-AdaBoost, XGBoost, and LightGBM (LGBM)-to harness their complementary advantages while addressing individual limitations. The proposed framework uniquely combines DCAE with gradient boosting, enabling end-to-end AF identification devoid of manual feature extraction. The DCAE-LGBM model attains an F1-score of 95.20%, sensitivity of 99.99%, and inference latency of four seconds, outperforming existing methods and aligning with clinical deployment requirements. The DCAE integration significantly enhances boosting models, positioning this hybrid system as a reliable tool for automated AF detection in clinical settings.


CottonSim: A vision-guided autonomous robotic system for cotton harvesting in Gazebo simulation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Cotton is a major cash crop in the United States, with the country being a leading global producer and exporter. Nearly all U.S. cotton is grown in the Cotton Belt, spanning 17 states in the southern region. Harvesting remains a critical yet challenging stage, impacted by the use of costly, environmentally harmful defoliants and heavy, expensive cotton pickers. These factors contribute to yield loss, reduced fiber quality, and soil compaction, which collectively threaten long-term sustainability. To address these issues, this study proposes a lightweight, small-scale, vision-guided autonomous robotic cotton picker as an alternative. An autonomous system, built on Clearpath's Husky platform and integrated with the CottonEye perception system, was developed and tested in the Gazebo simulation environment. A virtual cotton field was designed to facilitate autonomous navigation testing. The navigation system used Global Positioning System (GPS) and map-based guidance, assisted by an RGBdepth camera and a YOLOv8nseg instance segmentation model. The model achieved a mean Average Precision (mAP) of 85.2%, a recall of 88.9%, and a precision of 93.0%. The GPS-based approach reached a 100% completion rate (CR) within a $(5e-6)^{\circ}$ threshold, while the map-based method achieved a 96.7% CR within a 0.25 m threshold. The developed Robot Operating System (ROS) packages enable robust simulation of autonomous cotton picking, offering a scalable baseline for future agricultural robotics. CottonSim code and datasets are publicly available on GitHub: https://github.com/imtheva/CottonSim