Learning from temporally-correlated data is a core facet of modern machine learning. Yet our understanding of sequential learning remains incomplete, particularly in the multi-trajectory setting where data consists of many independent realizations of a time-indexed stochastic process. This important regime both reflects modern training pipelines such as for large foundation models, and offers the potential for learning without the typical mixing assumptions made in the single-trajectory case. However, instance-optimal bounds are known only for least-squares regression with dependent covariates; for more general models or loss functions, the only broadly applicable guarantees result from a reduction to either i.i.d. learning, with effective sample size scaling only in the number of trajectories, or an existing single-trajectory result when each individual trajectory mixes, with effective sample size scaling as the full data budget deflated by the mixing-time. In this work, we significantly broaden the scope of instance-optimal rates in multi-trajectory settings via the Hellinger localization framework, a general approach for maximum likelihood estimation. Our method proceeds by first controlling the squared Hellinger distance at the path-measure level via a reduction to i.i.d. learning, followed by localization as a quadratic form in parameter space weighted by the trajectory Fisher information. This yields instance-optimal bounds that scale with the full data budget under a broad set of conditions. We instantiate our framework across four diverse case studies: a simple mixture of Markov chains, dependent linear regression under non-Gaussian noise, generalized linear models with non-monotonic activations, and linear-attention sequence models. In all cases, our bounds nearly match the instance-optimal rates from asymptotic normality, substantially improving over standard reductions.

Abstract--The 2024 July Revolution in Bangladesh represents a landmark event in the study of civil resistance: a successful, student-led civilian uprising that overthrew a long-standing authoritarian regime despite facing brutal state repression. This study investigates the central paradox of its success: how state violence, intended to quell dissent, ultimately fueled the movement's victory. We employ a mixed-methods approach. First, we develop a qualitative narrative of the conflict's timeline to generate specific, testable hypotheses. Then, using a disaggregated, event-level dataset, we employ a multi-method quantitative analysis to dissect the complex relationship between repression and mobilisation. We provide a framework to analyse explosive modern uprisings like the July Revolution. Initial pooled regression models highlight the crucial role of protest momentum (measured by a feedback loop effect) in sustaining the movement. T o isolate causal effects, we specify a Two-Way Fixed Effects panel model, which provides robust evidence for a direct and statistically significant local suppression backfire effect. Our V ector Autoregression (V AR) analysis provides clear visual evidence of an immediate, nationwide mobilisation in response to increased lethal violence. We further demonstrate that this effect was non-linear . A structural break analysis reveals that the backfire dynamic was statistically insignificant in the conflict's early phase but was triggered by the catalytic moral shock of the first wave of lethal violence, and its visuals circulated around July 16th. We conclude that the July Revolution was driven by a contingent, non-linear backfire, triggered by specific catalytic moral shocks and accelerated by the viral reaction to the visual spectacle of state brutality. N August 2024, the fifteen-year rule of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh came to a sudden and dramatic end. After weeks of escalating nationwide protests, she resigned from her post and fled the country. These authors contributed equally to this work. Saiful Bari Siddiqui is a Senior Lecturer at the Department of Computer Science and Engineering, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh (e-mail: saiful.bari@bracu.ac.bd). Anupam Debashis Roy is a PhD candidate at the Department of Sociology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom (e-mail: anu-pam.roy@sant.ox.ac.uk). In a matter of weeks, this initial spark grew into a nationwide fire, as hundreds of thousands of ordinary citizens joined the students, bringing the country to a standstill and achieving a political transformation that had seemed unthinkable just a month earlier.

Recent years have seen a rise in the application of machine learning techniques to aid the simulation of hard-to-sample systems that cannot be studied using traditional methods. Despite the introduction of many different architectures and procedures, a wide theoretical understanding is still lacking, with the risk of suboptimal implementations. As a first step to address this gap, we provide here a complete analytic study of the widely-used Sequential Tempering procedure applied to a shallow MADE architecture for the Curie-Weiss model. The contribution of this work is twofold: firstly, we give a description of the optimal weights and of the training under Gradient Descent optimization. Secondly, we compare what happens in Sequential Tempering with and without the addition of local Metropolis Monte Carlo steps. We are thus able to give theoretical predictions on the best procedure to apply in this case. This work establishes a clear theoretical basis for the integration of machine learning techniques into Monte Carlo sampling and optimization.

Learning object-level, structured representations is widely regarded as a key to better generalization in vision and underpins the design of next-generation Pre-trained Vision Models (PVMs). Mainstream Object-Centric Learning (OCL) methods adopt Slot Attention or its variants to iteratively aggregate objects' super-pixels into a fixed set of query feature vectors, termed slots. However, their reliance on a static slot count leads to an object being represented as multiple parts when the number of objects varies. We introduce MetaSlot, a plug-and-play Slot Attention variant that adapts to variable object counts. MetaSlot (i) maintains a codebook that holds prototypes of objects in a dataset by vector-quantizing the resulting slot representations; (ii) removes duplicate slots from the traditionally aggregated slots by quantizing them with the codebook; and (iii) injects progressively weaker noise into the Slot Attention iterations to accelerate and stabilize the aggregation. MetaSlot is a general Slot Attention variant that can be seamlessly integrated into existing OCL architectures. Across multiple public datasets and tasks--including object discovery and recognition--models equipped with MetaSlot achieve significant performance gains and markedly interpretable slot representations, compared with existing Slot Attention variants.

The growing use of smartphones and IoT devices necessitates efficient time-series analysis on resource-constrained hardware, which is critical for sensing applications such as human activity recognition and air quality prediction. Recent efforts in hardware-aware neural architecture search (NAS) automate architecture discovery for specific platforms; however, none focus on general time-series analysis with edge deployment. Leveraging the problem-solving and reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLM), we propose MONAQ, a novel framework that reformulates NAS into Multi-Objective Neural Architecture Querying tasks. MONAQ is equipped with multimodal query generation for processing multimodal time-series inputs and hardware constraints, alongside an LLM agent-based multi-objective search to achieve deployment-ready models via code generation. By integrating numerical data, time-series images, and textual descriptions, MONAQ improves an LLM's understanding of time-series data. Experiments on fifteen datasets demonstrate that MONAQ-discovered models outperform both handcrafted models and NAS baselines while being more efficient.

We investigate how next-token prediction (NTP) optimization leads language models to extract and organize semantic structure from text. Our analysis, based on a tractable mathematical model and controlled synthetic data, reveals that NTP implicitly guides models to factor a centered support matrix encoding context-to-next-token co-occurrence patterns via singular value decomposition (SVD). While models never explicitly construct this matrix, learned word and context embeddings converge to its SVD factors, with singular vectors encoding latent semantic concepts through their sign patterns. We demonstrate that concepts corresponding to larger singular values are learned earlier during training, yielding a natural semantic hierarchy where broad categories emerge before fine-grained ones. This insight motivates orthant-based clustering, a method that combines concept signs to identify interpretable semantic categories. We validate our findings on synthetic datasets and pretrained language models, recovering diverse semantic structures such as grammatical categories, named entity types, and topical distinctions (medical, entertainment). Our work bridges classical distributional semantics and neural collapse geometry, characterizing how gradient-based optimization implicitly determines both the matrix representation and factorization method that encode semantic structure.

Molecular graph representation learning is widely used in chemical and biomedical research. While pre-trained 2D graph encoders have demonstrated strong performance, they overlook the rich molecular domain knowledge associated with submolecular instances (atoms and bonds). While molecular pre-training approaches incorporate such knowledge into their pre-training objectives, they typically employ designs tailored to a specific type of knowledge, lacking the flexibility to integrate diverse knowledge present in molecules. Hence, reusing widely available and well-validated pre-trained 2D encoders, while incorporating molecular domain knowledge during downstream adaptation, offers a more practical alternative. In this work, we propose MolGA, which adapts pre-trained 2D graph encoders to downstream molecular applications by flexibly incorporating diverse molecular domain knowledge. First, we propose a molecular alignment strategy that bridge the gap between pre-trained topological representations with domain-knowledge representations. Second, we introduce a conditional adaptation mechanism that generates instance-specific tokens to enable fine-grained integration of molecular domain knowledge for downstream tasks. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on eleven public datasets, demonstrating the effectiveness of MolGA.

Online structured prediction, including online classification as a special case, is the task of sequentially predicting labels from input features. Therein the surrogate regret -- the cumulative excess of the target loss (e.g., 0-1 loss) over the surrogate loss (e.g., logistic loss) of the fixed best estimator -- has gained attention, particularly because it often admits a finite bound independent of the time horizon $T$. However, such guarantees break down in non-stationary environments, where every fixed estimator may incur the surrogate loss growing linearly with $T$. We address this by proving a bound of the form $F_T + C(1 + P_T)$ on the cumulative target loss, where $F_T$ is the cumulative surrogate loss of any comparator sequence, $P_T$ is its path length, and $C > 0$ is some constant. This bound depends on $T$ only through $F_T$ and $P_T$, often yielding much stronger guarantees in non-stationary environments. Our core idea is to synthesize the dynamic regret bound of the online gradient descent (OGD) with the technique of exploiting the surrogate gap. Our analysis also sheds light on a new Polyak-style learning rate for OGD, which systematically offers target-loss guarantees and exhibits promising empirical performance. We further extend our approach to a broader class of problems via the convolutional Fenchel--Young loss. Finally, we prove a lower bound showing that the dependence on $F_T$ and $P_T$ is tight.

Channel state information (CSI) acquisition is a challenging problem in massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) networks. Radio maps provide a promising solution for radio resource management by reducing online CSI acquisition. However, conventional approaches for radio map construction require location-labeled CSI data, which is challenging in practice. This paper investigates unsupervised angular power map construction based on large timescale CSI data collected in a massive MIMO network without location labels. A hidden Markov model (HMM) is built to connect the hidden trajectory of a mobile with the CSI evolution of a massive MIMO channel. As a result, the mobile location can be estimated, enabling the construction of an angular power map. We show that under uniform rectilinear mobility with Poisson-distributed base stations (BSs), the Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) for localization error can vanish at any signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs), whereas when BSs are confined to a limited region, the error remains nonzero even with infinite independent measurements. Based on reference signal received power (RSRP) data collected in a real multi-cell massive MIMO network, an average localization error of 18 meters can be achieved although measurements are mainly obtained from a single serving cell.

Motivated by the growing interest in quantum machine learning, in particular quantum neural networks (QNNs), we study how recently introduced evaluation metrics based on the Fisher information matrix (FIM) are effective for predicting their training and prediction performance. We exploit the equivalence between a broad class of QNNs and Fourier models, and study the interplay between the \emph{effective dimension} and the \emph{bias} of a model towards a given task, investigating how these affect the model's training and performance. We show that for a model that is completely agnostic, or unbiased, towards the function to be learned, a higher effective dimension likely results in a better trainability and performance. On the other hand, for models that are biased towards the function to be learned a lower effective dimension is likely beneficial during training. To obtain these results, we derive an analytical expression of the FIM for Fourier models and identify the features controlling a model's effective dimension. This allows us to construct models with tunable effective dimension and bias, and to compare their training. We furthermore introduce a tensor network representation of the considered Fourier models, which could be a tool of independent interest for the analysis of QNN models. Overall, these findings provide an explicit example of the interplay between geometrical properties, model-task alignment and training, which are relevant for the broader machine learning community.