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 Statistical Learning


Active preference learning for ordering items in-and out-of-sample Herman Bergström Chalmers University of Technology and University of Gothenburg hermanb@chalmers.se Emil Carlsson

Neural Information Processing Systems

Learning an ordering of items based on pairwise comparisons is useful when items are difficult to rate consistently on an absolute scale, for example, when annotators have to make subjective assessments. When exhaustive comparison is infeasible, actively sampling item pairs can reduce the number of annotations necessary for learning an accurate ordering. However, many algorithms ignore shared structure between items, limiting their sample efficiency and precluding generalization to new items. It is also common to disregard how noise in comparisons varies between item pairs, despite it being informative of item similarity. In this work, we study active preference learning for ordering items with contextual attributes, both in-and out-of-sample. We give an upper bound on the expected ordering error of a logistic preference model as a function of which items have been compared. Next, we propose an active learning strategy that samples items to minimize this bound by accounting for aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in comparisons. We evaluate the resulting algorithm, and a variant aimed at reducing model misspecification, in multiple realistic ordering tasks with comparisons made by human annotators. Our results demonstrate superior sample efficiency and generalization compared to non-contextual ranking approaches and active preference learning baselines.



Boosted Conformal Prediction Intervals

Neural Information Processing Systems

This paper introduces a boosted conformal procedure designed to tailor confor-malized prediction intervals toward specific desired properties, such as enhanced conditional coverage or reduced interval length. We employ machine learning techniques, notably gradient boosting, to systematically improve upon a predefined conformity score function. This process is guided by carefully constructed loss functions that measure the deviation of prediction intervals from the targeted properties. The procedure operates post-training, relying solely on model predictions and without modifying the trained model (e.g., the deep network). Systematic experiments demonstrate that starting from conventional conformal methods, our boosted procedure achieves substantial improvements in reducing interval length and decreasing deviation from target conditional coverage.







Overleaf Example

Neural Information Processing Systems

Datasets often suffer severe selection bias; clinical labels are only available on patients for whom doctors ordered medical exams. To assess model performance outside the support of available data, we present a computational framework for adaptive labeling, providing cost-efficient model evaluations under severe distribution shifts. We formulate the problem as a Markov Decision Process over states defined by posterior beliefs on model performance. Each batch of new labels incurs a "state transition" to sharper beliefs, and we choose batches to minimize uncertainty on model performance at the end of the label collection process. Instead of relying on high-variance REINFORCE policy gradient estimators that do not scale, our adaptive labeling policy is optimized using path-wise policy gradients computed by auto-differentiating through simulated roll-outs. Our framework is agnostic to different uncertainty quantification approaches and highlights the virtue of planning in adaptive labeling. On synthetic and real datasets, we empirically demonstrate even a one-step lookahead policy substantially outperforms active learning-inspired heuristics.


Almost Free: Self-concordance in Natural Exponential Families and an Application to Bandits

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study how tail properties of the base distribution of a NEF impose limits on the NEF: if the base distribution is subexponential (subgaussian), we show that the NEF is self-concordant with a stretch factor that grows inverse quadratically (respectively, linearly) 2.