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 Statistical Learning


Rethinking Hebbian Principle: Low-Dimensional Structural Projection for Unsupervised Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Hebbian learning is a biological principle that intuitively describes how neurons adapt their connections through repeated stimuli. However, when applied to machine learning, it suffers serious issues due to the unconstrained updates of the connections and the lack of accounting for feedback mediation. Such shortcomings limit its effective scaling to complex network architectures and tasks. To this end, here we introduce the Structural Projection Hebbian Representation (SPHeRe), a novel unsupervised learning method that integrates orthogonality and structural information preservation through a local auxiliary nonlinear block. The loss for structural information preservation backpropagates to the input through an auxiliary lightweight projection that conceptually serves as feedback mediation while the orthogonality constraints account for the boundedness of updating magnitude. Extensive experimental results show that SPHeRe achieves SOTA performance among unsupervised synaptic plasticity approaches on standard image classification benchmarks, including CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and Tiny-ImageNet. Furthermore, the method exhibits strong effectiveness in continual learning and transfer learning scenarios, and image reconstruction tasks show the robustness and generalizability of the extracted features. This work demonstrates the competitiveness and potential of Hebbian unsupervised learning rules within modern deep learning frameworks, demonstrating the possibility of efficient and biologically inspired learning algorithms without the strong dependence on strict backpropagation. Our code is available at https://github.com/brain-intelligence-lab/SPHeRe.


Rebalancing with Calibrated Sub-classes (RCS): A Statistical Fusion-based Framework for Robust Imbalanced Classification across Modalities

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Class imbalance, where certain classes have insufficient data, poses a critical challenge for robust classification, often biasing models toward majority classes. Distribution calibration offers a promising avenue to address this by estimating more accurate class distributions. In this work, we propose Rebalancing with Calibrated Sub-classes (RCS) - a novel distribution calibration framework for robust imbalanced classification. RCS aims to fuse statistical information from the majority and intermediate class distributions via a weighted mixture of Gaussian components to estimate minority class parameters more accurately. An encoder-decoder network is trained to preserve structural relationships in imbalanced datasets and prevent feature disentanglement. Post-training, encoder-extracted feature vectors are leveraged to generate synthetic samples guided by the calibrated distributions. This fusion-based calibration effectively mitigates overgeneralization by incorporating neighborhood distribution information rather than relying solely on majority-class statistics. Extensive experiments on diverse image, text, and tabular datasets demonstrate that RCS consistently outperforms several baseline and state-of-the-art methods, highlighting its effectiveness and broad applicability in addressing real-world imbalanced classification challenges.


Graph Few-Shot Learning via Adaptive Spectrum Experts and Cross-Set Distribution Calibration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Graph few-shot learning has attracted increasing attention due to its ability to rapidly adapt models to new tasks with only limited labeled nodes. Despite the remarkable progress made by existing graph few-shot learning methods, several key limitations remain. First, most current approaches rely on predefined and unified graph filters (e.g., low-pass or high-pass filters) to globally enhance or suppress node frequency signals. Such fixed spectral operations fail to account for the heterogeneity of local topological structures inherent in real-world graphs. Moreover, these methods often assume that the support and query sets are drawn from the same distribution. However, under few-shot conditions, the limited labeled data in the support set may not sufficiently capture the complex distribution of the query set, leading to suboptimal generalization. To address these challenges, we propose GRACE, a novel Graph few-shot leaRning framework that integrates Adaptive spectrum experts with Cross-sEt distribution calibration techniques. Theoretically, the proposed approach enhances model generalization by adapting to both local structural variations and cross-set distribution calibration. Empirically, GRACE consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across a wide range of experimental settings. Our code can be found here.


Incentivizing Time-Aware Fairness in Data Sharing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In collaborative data sharing and machine learning, multiple parties aggregate their data resources to train a machine learning model with better model performance. However, as the parties incur data collection costs, they are only willing to do so when guaranteed incentives, such as fairness and individual rationality. Existing frameworks assume that all parties join the collaboration simultaneously, which does not hold in many real-world scenarios. Due to the long processing time for data cleaning, difficulty in overcoming legal barriers, or unawareness, the parties may join the collaboration at different times. In this work, we propose the following perspective: As a party who joins earlier incurs higher risk and encourages the contribution from other wait-and-see parties, that party should receive a reward of higher value for sharing data earlier. To this end, we propose a fair and time-aware data sharing framework, including novel time-aware incentives. We develop new methods for deciding reward values to satisfy these incentives. We further illustrate how to generate model rewards that realize the reward values and empirically demonstrate the properties of our methods on synthetic and real-world datasets.


Conformal Prediction for Signal Temporal Logic Inference

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--Signal T emporal Logic (STL) inference seeks to extract human-interpretable rules from time-series data, but existing methods lack formal confidence guarantees for the inferred rules. Conformal prediction (CP) is a technique that can provide statistical correctness guarantees, but is typically applied as a post-training wrapper without improving model learning. Instead, we introduce an end-to-end differentiable CP framework for STL inference that enhances both reliability and interpretability of the resulting formulas. We introduce a robustness-based nonconformity score, embed a smooth CP layer directly into training, and employ a new loss function that simultaneously optimizes inference accuracy and CP prediction sets with a single term. Following training, an exact CP procedure delivers statistical guarantees for the learned STL formulas. Experiments on benchmark time-series tasks show that our approach reduces uncertainty in predictions (i.e., it achieves high coverage while reducing prediction set size), and improves accuracy (i.e., the number of misclassifications when using a fixed threshold) over state-of-the-art baselines.


EEG-Based Consumer Behaviour Prediction: An Exploration from Classical Machine Learning to Graph Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Prediction of consumer behavior is one of the important purposes in marketing, cognitive neuroscience, and human-computer interaction. The electroencephalography (EEG) data can help analyze the decision process by providing detailed information about the brain's neural activity. In this research, a comparative approach is utilized for predicting consumer behavior by EEG data. In the first step, the features of the EEG data from the NeuMa dataset were extracted and cleaned. For the Graph Neural Network (GNN) models, the brain connectivity features were created. Different machine learning models, such as classical models and Graph Neural Networks, are used and compared. The GNN models with different architectures are implemented to have a comprehensive comparison; furthermore, a wide range of classical models, such as ensemble models, are applied, which can be very helpful to show the difference and performance of each model on the dataset. Although the results did not show a significant difference overall, the GNN models generally performed better in some basic criteria where classical models were not satisfactory. This study not only shows that combining EEG signal analysis and machine learning models can provide an approach to deeper understanding of consumer behavior, but also provides a comprehensive comparison between the machine learning models that have been widely used in previous studies in the EEG-based neuromarketing such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), and the models which are not used or rarely used in the field, like Graph Neural Networks.


Backpropagation-Free Test-Time Adaptation via Probabilistic Gaussian Alignment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Test-time adaptation (TTA) enhances the zero-shot robustness under distribution shifts by leveraging unlabeled test data during inference. Despite notable advances, several challenges still limit its broader applicability. First, most methods rely on backpropagation or iterative optimization, which limits scalability and hinders real-time deployment. Second, they lack explicit modeling of class-conditional feature distributions. This modeling is crucial for producing reliable decision boundaries and calibrated predictions, but it remains underexplored due to the lack of both source data and supervision at test time. In this paper, we propose ADAPT, an Advanced Distribution-Aware and backPropagation-free Test-time adaptation method. We reframe TTA as a Gaussian probabilistic inference task by modeling class-conditional likelihoods using gradually updated class means and a shared covariance matrix. This enables closed-form, training-free inference. To correct potential likelihood bias, we introduce lightweight regularization guided by CLIP priors and a historical knowledge bank. ADAPT requires no source data, no gradient updates, and no full access to target data, supporting both online and transductive settings. Extensive experiments across diverse benchmarks demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance under a wide range of distribution shifts with superior scalability and robustness.


Topology of Currencies: Persistent Homology for FX Co-movements: A Comparative Clustering Study

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This study investigates whether Topological Data Analysis (TDA) can provide additional insights beyond traditional statistical methods in clustering currency behaviours. We focus on the foreign exchange (FX) market, which is a complex system often exhibiting non-linear and high-dimensional dynamics that classical techniques may not fully capture. We compare clustering results based on TDA-derived features versus classical statistical features using monthly logarithmic returns of 13 major currency exchange rates (all against the euro). Two widely-used clustering algorithms, \(k\)-means and Hierarchical clustering, are applied on both types of features, and cluster quality is evaluated via the Silhouette score and the Calinski-Harabasz index. Our findings show that TDA-based feature clustering produces more compact and well-separated clusters than clustering on traditional statistical features, particularly achieving substantially higher Calinski-Harabasz scores. However, all clustering approaches yield modest Silhouette scores, underscoring the inherent difficulty of grouping FX time series. The differing cluster compositions under TDA vs. classical features suggest that TDA captures structural patterns in currency co-movements that conventional methods might overlook. These results highlight TDA as a valuable complementary tool for analysing financial time series, with potential applications in risk management where understanding structural co-movements is crucial.


Error Analysis of Triangular Optimal Transport Maps for Filtering

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We present a systematic analysis of estimation errors for a class of optimal transport based algorithms for filtering and data assimilation. Along the way, we extend previous error analyses of Brenier maps to the case of conditional Brenier maps that arise in the context of simulation based inference. We then apply these results in a filtering scenario to analyze the optimal transport filtering algorithm of Al-Jarrah et al. (2024, ICML). An extension of that algorithm along with numerical benchmarks on various non-Gaussian and high-dimensional examples are provided to demonstrate its effectiveness and practical potential.


Shrinkage to Infinity: Reducing Test Error by Inflating the Minimum Norm Interpolator in Linear Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Hastie et al. (2022) found that ridge regularization is essential in high dimensional linear regression $y=β^Tx + ε$ with isotropic co-variates $x\in \mathbb{R}^d$ and $n$ samples at fixed $d/n$. However, Hastie et al. (2022) also notes that when the co-variates are anisotropic and $β$ is aligned with the top eigenvalues of population covariance, the "situation is qualitatively different." In the present article, we make precise this observation for linear regression with highly anisotropic covariances and diverging $d/n$. We find that simply scaling up (or inflating) the minimum $\ell_2$ norm interpolator by a constant greater than one can improve the generalization error. This is in sharp contrast to traditional regularization/shrinkage prescriptions. Moreover, we use a data-splitting technique to produce consistent estimators that achieve generalization error comparable to that of the optimally inflated minimum-norm interpolator. Our proof relies on apparently novel matching upper and lower bounds for expectations of Gaussian random projections for a general class of anisotropic covariance matrices when $d/n\to \infty$.