Hierarchical optimization refers to problems with interdependent decision variables and objectives, such as minimax and bilevel formulations. While various algorithms have been proposed, existing methods and analyses lack adaptivity in stochastic optimization settings: they cannot achieve optimal convergence rates across a wide spectrum of gradient noise levels without prior knowledge of the noise magnitude. In this paper, we propose novel adaptive algorithms for two important classes of stochastic hierarchical optimization problems: nonconvex-strongly-concave minimax optimization and nonconvex-strongly-convex bilevel optimization. Our algorithms achieve sharp convergence rates of $\widetilde{O}(1/\sqrt{T} + \sqrt{\barσ}/T^{1/4})$ in $T$ iterations for the gradient norm, where $\barσ$ is an upper bound on the stochastic gradient noise. Notably, these rates are obtained without prior knowledge of the noise level, thereby enabling automatic adaptivity in both low and high-noise regimes. To our knowledge, this work provides the first adaptive and sharp convergence guarantees for stochastic hierarchical optimization. Our algorithm design combines the momentum normalization technique with novel adaptive parameter choices. Extensive experiments on synthetic and deep learning tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithms.

This paper presents a methodological approach to financial time series analysis by combining causal discovery and uncertainty-aware forecasting. As a case study, we focus on four key U.S. macroeconomic indicators -- GDP, economic growth, inflation, and unemployment -- and we apply the LPCMCI framework with Gaussian Process Distance Correlation (GPDC) to uncover dynamic causal relationships in quarterly data from 1970 to 2021. Our results reveal a robust unidirectional causal link from economic growth to GDP and highlight the limited connectivity of inflation, suggesting the influence of latent factors. Unemployment exhibits strong autore-gressive dependence, motivating its use as a case study for probabilistic forecasting. Leveraging the Chronos framework, a large language model trained for time series, we perform zero-shot predictions on unemployment. This approach delivers accurate forecasts one and two quarters ahead, without requiring task-specific training. Crucially, the model's uncertainty-aware predictions yield 90% confidence intervals, enabling effective anomaly detection through statistically principled deviation analysis. This study demonstrates the value of combining causal structure learning with probabilistic language models to inform economic policy and enhance forecasting robustness.

Speakers often have multiple ways to express the same meaning. The Uniform Information Density (UID) hypothesis suggests that speakers exploit this variability to maintain a consistent rate of information transmission during language production. Building on prior work linking UID to syntactic reduction, we revisit the finding that the optional complementizer $\textit{that}$ in English complement clauses is more likely to be omitted when the clause has low information density (i.e., more predictable). We advance this line of research by analyzing a large-scale, contemporary conversational corpus and using machine learning and neural language models to refine estimates of information density. Our results replicated the established relationship between information density and $\textit{that}$-mentioning. However, we found that previous measures of information density based on matrix verbs' subcategorization probability capture substantial idiosyncratic lexical variation. By contrast, estimates derived from contextual word embeddings account for additional variance in patterns of complementizer usage.

Many high-dimensional optimisation problems exhibit rich geometric structures in their set of minimisers, often forming smooth manifolds due to over-parametrisation or symmetries. When this structure is known, at least locally, it can be exploited through reduction mappings that reparametrise part of the parameter space to lie on the solution manifold. These reductions naturally arise from inner optimisation problems and effectively remove redundant directions, yielding a lower-dimensional objective. In this work, we introduce a general framework to understand how such reductions influence the optimisation landscape. We show that well-designed reduction mappings improve curvature properties of the objective, leading to better-conditioned problems and theoretically faster convergence for gradient-based methods. Our analysis unifies a range of scenarios where structural information at optimality is leveraged to accelerate convergence, offering a principled explanation for the empirical gains observed in such optimisation algorithms.

Accurate, high-resolution ocean forecasting is crucial for maritime operations and environmental monitoring. While traditional numerical models are capable of producing sub-daily, eddy-resolving forecasts, they are computationally intensive and face challenges in maintaining accuracy at fine spatial and temporal scales. In contrast, recent data-driven approaches offer improved computational efficiency and emerging potential, yet typically operate at daily resolution and struggle with sub-daily predictions due to error accumulation over time. We introduce FuXi-Ocean, the first data-driven global ocean forecasting model achieving six-hourly predictions at eddy-resolving 1/12° spatial resolution, reaching depths of up to 1500 meters. The model architecture integrates a context-aware feature extraction module with a predictive network employing stacked attention blocks. The core innovation is the Mixture-of-Time (MoT) module, which adaptively integrates predictions from multiple temporal contexts by learning variable-specific reliability , mitigating cumulative errors in sequential forecasting. Through comprehensive experimental evaluation, FuXi-Ocean demonstrates superior skill in predicting key variables, including temperature, salinity, and currents, across multiple depths.

Identifying super-spreaders can be framed as a subtask of the influence maximisation problem. It seeks to pinpoint agents within a network that, if selected as single diffusion seeds, disseminate information most effectively. Multilayer networks, a specific class of heterogeneous graphs, can capture diverse types of interactions (e.g., physical-virtual or professional-social), and thus offer a more accurate representation of complex relational structures. In this work, we introduce a novel approach to identifying super-spreaders in such networks by leveraging graph neural networks. To this end, we construct a dataset by simulating information diffusion across hundreds of networks - to the best of our knowledge, the first of its kind tailored specifically to multilayer networks. We further formulate the task as a variation of the ranking prediction problem based on a four-dimensional vector that quantifies each agent's spreading potential: (i) the number of activations; (ii) the duration of the diffusion process; (iii) the peak number of activations; and (iv) the simulation step at which this peak occurs. Our model, TopSpreadersNetwork, comprises a relationship-agnostic encoder and a custom aggregation layer. This design enables generalisation to previously unseen data and adapts to varying graph sizes. In an extensive evaluation, we compare our model against classic centrality-based heuristics and competitive deep learning methods. The results, obtained across a broad spectrum of real-world and synthetic multilayer networks, demonstrate that TopSpreadersNetwork achieves superior performance in identifying high-impact nodes, while also offering improved interpretability through its structured output.

Dependency parsing is the task of inferring natural language structure, often approached by modeling word interactions via attention through biaffine scoring. This mechanism works like self-attention in Transformers, where scores are calculated for every pair of words in a sentence. However, unlike Transformer attention, biaffine scoring does not use normalization prior to taking the softmax of the scores. In this paper, we provide theoretical evidence and empirical results revealing that a lack of normalization necessarily results in overparameterized parser models, where the extra parameters compensate for the sharp softmax outputs produced by high variance inputs to the biaffine scoring function. We argue that biaffine scoring can be made substantially more efficient by performing score normalization. We conduct experiments on semantic and syntactic dependency parsing in multiple languages, along with latent graph inference on non-linguistic data, using various settings of a $k$-hop parser. We train $N$-layer stacked BiLSTMs and evaluate the parser's performance with and without normalizing biaffine scores. Normalizing allows us to achieve state-of-the-art performance with fewer samples and trainable parameters. Code: https://github.com/paolo-gajo/EfficientSDP

Training large neural networks (NNs) requires optimizing high-dimensional data-dependent loss functions. The optimization landscape of these functions is often highly complex and textured, even fractal-like, with many spurious local minima, ill-conditioned valleys, degenerate points, and saddle points. Complicating things further is the fact that these landscape characteristics are a function of the data, meaning that noise in the training data can propagate forward and give rise to unrepresentative small-scale geometry. This poses a difficulty for gradient-based optimization methods, which rely on local geometry to compute updates and are, therefore, vulnerable to being derailed by noisy data. In practice,this translates to a strong dependence of the optimization dynamics on the noise in the data, i.e., poor generalization performance. To remediate this problem, we propose a new optimization procedure: Rolling Ball Optimizer (RBO), that breaks this spatial locality by incorporating information from a larger region of the loss landscape in its updates. We achieve this by simulating the motion of a rigid sphere of finite radius rolling on the loss landscape, a straightforward generalization of Gradient Descent (GD) that simplifies into it in the infinitesimal limit. The radius serves as a hyperparameter that determines the scale at which RBO sees the loss landscape, allowing control over the granularity of its interaction therewith. We are motivated by the intuition that the large-scale geometry of the loss landscape is less data-specific than its fine-grained structure, and that it is easier to optimize. We support this intuition by proving that our algorithm has a smoothing effect on the loss function. Evaluation against SGD, SAM, and Entropy-SGD, on MNIST and CIFAR-10/100 demonstrates promising results in terms of convergence speed, training accuracy, and generalization performance.

This paper establishes the theoretical limits of graph clustering under the Popularity-Adjusted Block Model (PABM), addressing limitations of existing models. In contrast to the Stochastic Block Model (SBM), which assumes uniform vertex degrees, and to the Degree-Corrected Block Model (DCBM), which applies uniform degree corrections across clusters, PABM introduces separate popularity parameters for intra- and inter-cluster connections. Our main contribution is the characterization of the optimal error rate for clustering under PABM, which provides novel insights on clustering hardness: we demonstrate that unlike SBM and DCBM, cluster recovery remains possible in PABM even when traditional edge-density signals vanish, provided intra- and inter-cluster popularity coefficients differ. This highlights a dimension of degree heterogeneity captured by PABM but overlooked by DCBM: local differences in connectivity patterns can enhance cluster separability independently of global edge densities. Finally, because PABM exhibits a richer structure, its expected adjacency matrix has rank between $k$ and $k^2$, where $k$ is the number of clusters. As a result, spectral embeddings based on the top $k$ eigenvectors may fail to capture important structural information. Our numerical experiments on both synthetic and real datasets confirm that spectral clustering algorithms incorporating $k^2$ eigenvectors outperform traditional spectral approaches.

Knowledge distillation is a promising approach to transfer capabilities from complex teacher models to smaller, resource-efficient student models that can be deployed easily, particularly in task-aware scenarios. However, existing methods of task-aware distillation typically require substantial quantities of data which may be unavailable or expensive to obtain in many practical scenarios. In this paper, we address this challenge by introducing a novel strategy called Counterfactual-explanation-infused Distillation CoD for few-shot task-aware knowledge distillation by systematically infusing counterfactual explanations. Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) refer to inputs that can flip the output prediction of the teacher model with minimum perturbation. Our strategy CoD leverages these CFEs to precisely map the teacher's decision boundary with significantly fewer samples. We provide theoretical guarantees for motivating the role of CFEs in distillation, from both statistical and geometric perspectives. We mathematically show that CFEs can improve parameter estimation by providing more informative examples near the teacher's decision boundary. We also derive geometric insights on how CFEs effectively act as knowledge probes, helping the students mimic the teacher's decision boundaries more effectively than standard data. We perform experiments across various datasets and LLMs to show that CoD outperforms standard distillation approaches in few-shot regimes (as low as 8-512 samples). Notably, CoD only uses half of the original samples used by the baselines, paired with their corresponding CFEs and still improves performance.