Physics-informed statistical learning (PISL) integrates empirical data with physical knowledge to enhance the statistical performance of estimators. While PISL methods are widely used in practice, a comprehensive theoretical understanding of how informed regularization affects statistical properties is still missing. Specifically, two fundamental questions have yet to be fully addressed: (1) what is the trade-off between considering soft penalties versus hard constraints, and (2) what is the statistical gain of incorporating physical knowledge compared to purely data-driven empirical error minimisation. In this paper, we address these questions for PISL in convex classes of functions under physical knowledge expressed as linear equations by developing appropriate complexity dependent error rates based on the small-ball method. We show that, under suitable assumptions, (1) the error rates of physics-informed estimators are comparable to those of hard constrained empirical error minimisers, differing only by constant terms, and that (2) informed penalization can effectively reduce model complexity, akin to dimensionality reduction, thereby improving learning performance. This work establishes a theoretical framework for evaluating the statistical properties of physics-informed estimators in convex classes of functions, contributing to closing the gap between statistical theory and practical PISL, with potential applications to cases not yet explored in the literature.

We introduce Coupled Flow Matching (CPFM), a framework that integrates controllable dimensionality reduction and high-fidelity reconstruction. CPFM learns coupled continuous flows for both the high-dimensional data x and the low-dimensional embedding y, which enables sampling p(y|x) via a latent-space flow and p(x|y) via a data-space flow. Unlike classical dimension-reduction methods, where information discarded during compression is often difficult to recover, CPFM preserves the knowledge of residual information within the weights of a flow network. This design provides a bespoke controllability: users may decide which semantic factors to retain explicitly in the latent space, while the complementary information remains recoverable through the flow network. Coupled flow matching builds on two components: (i) an extended Gro-mov-Wasserstein optimal transport objective that establishes a probabilistic correspondence between data and embeddings, and (ii) a dual-conditional flow-matching network that extrapolates the correspondence to the underlying space. Experiments on multiple benchmarks show that CPFM yields semantically rich embeddings and reconstructs data with higher fidelity than existing baselines.

Centered kernel alignment (CKA) is a popular metric for comparing representations, determining equivalence of networks, and neuroscience research. However, CKA does not account for the underlying manifold and relies on numerous heuristics that cause it to behave differently at different scales of data. In this work, we propose Manifold approximated Kernel Alignment (MKA), which incorporates manifold geometry into the alignment task. We derive a theoretical framework for MKA. We perform empirical evaluations on synthetic datasets and real-world examples to characterize and compare MKA to its contemporaries. Our findings suggest that manifold-aware kernel alignment provides a more robust foundation for measuring representations, with potential applications in representation learning.

Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) enables the study of cellular heterogeneity. Y et, clustering accuracy, and with it downstream analyses based on cell labels, remain challenging due to measurement noise and biological variability. In standard latent spaces (e.g., obtained through PCA), data from different cell types can be projected close together, making accurate clustering difficult. We introduce a latent plug-and-play diffusion framework that separates the observation and de-noising space. This separation is operationalized through a novel Gibbs sampling procedure: the learned diffusion prior is applied in a low-dimensional latent space to perform denoising, while to steer this process, noise is reintroduced into the original high-dimensional observation space. This unique "input-space steering" ensures the denoising trajectory remains faithful to the original data structure. Our approach offers three key advantages: (1) adaptive noise handling via a tunable balance between prior and observed data; (2) uncertainty quantification through principled uncertainty estimates for downstream analysis; and (3) generalizable denoising by leveraging clean reference data to denoise noisier datasets, and via averaging, improve quality beyond the training set. We evaluate robustness on both synthetic and real single-cell genomics data. Our method improves clustering accuracy on synthetic data across varied noise levels and dataset shifts. On real-world single-cell data, our method demonstrates improved biological coherence in the resulting cell clusters, with cluster boundaries that better align with known cell type markers and developmental trajectories. Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) has revolutionized biomedical research by enabling high-resolution profiling of cellular heterogeneity (Park et al., 2020; Miragaia et al., 2019), with large-scale initiatives like the Human Cell Atlas providing foundational references for cell type annotation (Regev et al., 2017; Lindeboom et al., 2021; Elmentaite et al., 2022; Stuart et al., 2019; Lopez et al., 2018).

The Synthetic Control method (SC) has become a valuable tool for estimating causal effects. Originally designed for single-treated unit scenarios, it has recently found applications in high-dimensional disaggregated settings with multiple treated units. However, challenges in practical implementation and computational efficiency arise in such scenarios. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel approach that integrates the Multivariate Square-root Lasso method into the synthetic control framework. We rigorously establish the estimation error bounds for fitting the Synthetic Control weights using Multivariate Square-root Lasso, accommodating high-dimensionality and time series dependencies. Additionally, we quantify the estimation error for the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT). Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that our method offers superior computational efficiency without compromising estimation accuracy. We apply our method to assess the causal impact of COVID-19 Stay-at-Home Orders on the monthly unemployment rate in the United States at the county level.

Traditional machine learning relies on explicit models and domain assumptions, limiting flexibility and interpretability. We introduce a model-free framework using surprisal (information theoretic uncertainty) to directly analyze and perform inferences from raw data, eliminating distribution modeling, reducing bias, and enabling efficient updates including direct edits and deletion of training data. By quantifying relevance through uncertainty, the approach enables generalizable inference across tasks including generative inference, causal discovery, anomaly detection, and time series forecasting. It emphasizes traceability, interpretability, and data-driven decision making, offering a unified, human-understandable framework for machine learning, and achieves at or near state-of-the-art performance across most common machine learning tasks. The mathematical foundations create a ``physics'' of information, which enable these techniques to apply effectively to a wide variety of complex data types, including missing data. Empirical results indicate that this may be a viable alternative path to neural networks with regard to scalable machine learning and artificial intelligence that can maintain human understandability of the underlying mechanics.

Quantum imaginary time evolution (QITE) algorithm is one of the most promising variational quantum algorithms (VQAs), bridging the current era of Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum devices and the future of fully fault-tolerant quantum computing. Although practical demonstrations of QITE and its potential advantages over the general VQA trained with vanilla gradient descent (GD) in certain tasks have been reported, a first-principle, theoretical understanding of QITE remains limited. Here, we aim to develop an analytic theory for the dynamics of QITE. First, we show that QITE can be interpreted as a form of a general VQA trained with Quantum Natural Gradient Descent (QNGD), where the inverse quantum Fisher information matrix serves as the learning-rate tensor. This equivalence is established not only at the level of gradient update rules, but also through the action principle: the variational principle can be directly connected to the geometric geodesic distance in the quantum Fisher information metric, up to an integration constant. Second, for wide quantum neural networks, we employ the quantum neural tangent kernel framework to construct an analytic model for QITE. We prove that QITE always converges faster than GD-based VQA, though this advantage is suppressed by the exponential growth of Hilbert space dimension. This helps explain certain experimental results in quantum computational chemistry. Our theory encompasses linear, quadratic, and more general loss functions. We validate the analytic results through numerical simulations. Our findings establish a theoretical foundation for QITE dynamics and provide analytic insights for the first-principle design of variational quantum algorithms.

Low-precision streaming PCA estimates the top principal component in a streaming setting under limited precision. We establish an information-theoretic lower bound on the quantization resolution required to achieve a target accuracy for the leading eigenvector. We study Oja's algorithm for streaming PCA under linear and nonlinear stochastic quantization. The quantized variants use unbiased stochastic quantization of the weight vector and the updates. Under mild moment and spectral-gap assumptions on the data distribution, we show that a batched version achieves the lower bound up to logarithmic factors under both schemes. This leads to a nearly dimension-free quantization error in the nonlinear quantization setting. Empirical evaluations on synthetic streams validate our theoretical findings and demonstrate that our low-precision methods closely track the performance of standard Oja's algorithm.

Student Growth Percentiles (SGPs), widely adopted across U.S. state assessment systems, employ independent quantile regression followed by post-hoc correction using an isotonic projection method (\texttt{isotonize=TRUE} in the \texttt{SGP} R package) to address quantile crossing. We demonstrate this approach contains a fundamental methodological inconsistency: interpolation between independently-estimated, potentially crossed quantiles requires monotonicity, yet the post-hoc correction alters estimates in ways that may violate the quantile property $P(Y \leq \hat{Q}_τ(Y|X) \mid X) = τ$. We term this the \emph{interpolation paradox}. While theoretically sound constrained joint quantile regression (CJQR) eliminates crossing by enforcing non-crossing constraints during optimization, we analyze its computational complexity (often scaling poorly, e.g., $\mathcal{O}((qn)^3)$ for standard LP solvers) rendering it intractable for large-scale educational data ($n > 100{,}000$). We examine the SGP package's switch to the Frisch-Newton interior point method (\texttt{rq.method.for.large.n="fn"}) for large $N$, noting that while efficient for \emph{independent} QR, it doesn't resolve the joint problem's complexity or the paradox. We propose neural network-based multi-quantile regression (NNQR) with shared hidden layers as a practical alternative. Leveraging the convexity of the composite pinball loss, SGD-based optimization used in NN training can reliably approach the global optimum, offering scalability ($O(n)$) and implicitly reducing crossing. Our empirical analysis shows independent QR yields crossing, while both CJQR and NNQR enforce monotonicity. NNQR emerges as a viable, scalable alternative for operational SGP systems, aligning theoretical validity with computational feasibility.

Learning mappings between functional spaces, also known as function-on-function regression, plays a crucial role in functional data analysis and has broad applications, e.g. spatiotemporal forecasting, curve prediction, and climate modeling. Existing approaches, such as functional linear models and neural operators, either fall short of capturing complex nonlinearities or lack reliable uncertainty quantification under noisy, sparse, and irregularly sampled data. To address these issues, we propose Deep Gaussian Processes for Functional Maps (DGPFM). Our method designs a sequence of GP-based linear and nonlinear transformations, leveraging integral transforms of kernels, GP interpolation, and nonlinear activations sampled from GPs. A key insight simplifies implementation: under fixed locations, discrete approximations of kernel integral transforms collapse into direct functional integral transforms, enabling flexible incorporation of various integral transform designs. To achieve scalable probabilistic inference, we use inducing points and whitening transformations to develop a variational learning algorithm. Empirical results on real-world and PDE benchmark datasets demonstrate that the advantage of DGPFM in both predictive performance and uncertainty calibration.