We evaluate the performance of targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) for estimating the average treatment effect in missing data scenarios under varying levels of positivity violations. We employ model- and design-based simulations, with the latter using undersmoothed highly adaptive lasso on the 'WASH Benefits Bangladesh' dataset to mimic real-world complexities. Five missingness-directed acyclic graphs are considered, capturing common missing data mechanisms in epidemiological research, particularly in one-point exposure studies. These mechanisms include also not-at-random missingness in the exposure, outcome, and confounders. We compare eight missing data methods in conjunction with TMLE as the analysis method, distinguishing between non-multiple imputation (non-MI) and multiple imputation (MI) approaches. The MI approaches use both parametric and machine-learning models. Results show that non-MI methods, particularly complete cases with TMLE incorporating an outcome-missingness model, exhibit lower bias compared to all other evaluated missing data methods and greater robustness against positivity violations across. In Comparison MI with classification and regression trees (CART) achieve lower root mean squared error, while often maintaining nominal coverage rates. Our findings highlight the trade-offs between bias and coverage, and we recommend using complete cases with TMLE incorporating an outcome-missingness model for bias reduction and MI CART when accurate confidence intervals are the priority.

Proximal gradient algorithms (PGA), while foundational for inverse problems like image reconstruction, often yield unstable convergence and suboptimal solutions by violating the critical non-negativity constraint. We identify the gradient descent step as the root cause of this issue, which introduces negative values and induces high sensitivity to hyperparameters. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel multiplicative update proximal gradient algorithm (SSO-PGA) with convergence guarantees, which is designed for robustness in non-negative inverse problems. Our key innovation lies in superseding the gradient descent step with a learnable sigmoid-based operator, which inherently enforces non-negativity and boundedness by transforming traditional subtractive updates into multiplicative ones. This design, augmented by a sliding parameter for enhanced stability and convergence, not only improves robustness but also boosts expressive capacity and noise immunity. We further formulate a degradation model for multi-modal restoration and derive its SSO-PGA-based optimization algorithm, which is then unfolded into a deep network to marry the interpretability of optimization with the power of deep learning. Extensive numerical and real-world experiments demonstrate that our method significantly surpasses traditional PGA and other state-of-the-art algorithms, ensuring superior performance and stability.

We develop a formal statistical framework for classical multidimensional scaling (CMDS) applied to noisy dissimilarity data. We establish distributional convergence results for the embeddings produced by CMDS for various noise models, which enable the construction of \emph{bona~fide} uniform confidence sets for the latent configuration, up to rigid transformations. We further propose bootstrap procedures for constructing these confidence sets and provide theoretical guarantees for their validity. We find that the multiplier bootstrap adapts automatically to heteroscedastic noise such as multiplicative noise, while the empirical bootstrap seems to require homoscedasticity. Either form of bootstrap, when valid, is shown to substantially improve finite-sample accuracy. The empirical performance of the proposed methods is demonstrated through numerical experiments.

Semi-supervised learning (SSL) aims to train a machine learning model using both labelled and unlabelled data. While the unlabelled data have been used in various ways to improve the prediction accuracy, the reason why unlabelled data could help is not fully understood. One interesting and promising direction is to understand SSL from a causal perspective. In light of the independent causal mechanisms principle, the unlabelled data can be helpful when the label causes the features but not vice versa. However, the causal relations between the features and labels can be complex in real world applications. In this paper, we propose a SSL framework that works with general causal models in which the variables have flexible causal relations. More specifically, we explore the causal graph structures and design corresponding causal generative models which can be learned with the help of unlabelled data. The learned causal generative model can generate synthetic labelled data for training a more accurate predictive model. We verify the effectiveness of our proposed method by empirical studies on both simulated and real data.

We study the problem of constructing coresets for $(k, z)$-clustering when the input dataset is corrupted by stochastic noise drawn from a known distribution. In this setting, evaluating the quality of a coreset is inherently challenging, as the true underlying dataset is unobserved. To address this, we investigate coreset construction using surrogate error metrics that are tractable and provably related to the true clustering cost. We analyze a traditional metric from prior work and introduce a new error metric that more closely aligns with the true cost. Although our metric is defined independently of the noise distribution, it enables approximation guarantees that scale with the noise level. We design a coreset construction algorithm based on this metric and show that, under mild assumptions on the data and noise, enforcing an $\varepsilon$-bound under our metric yields smaller coresets and tighter guarantees on the true clustering cost than those obtained via classical metrics. In particular, we prove that the coreset size can improve by a factor of up to $\mathrm{poly}(k)$, where $n$ is the dataset size. Experiments on real-world datasets support our theoretical findings and demonstrate the practical advantages of our approach.

Random Forests (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) are two of the most widely used and highly performing classification and regression models. They aggregate equally weighted CART trees, generated randomly in RF or sequentially in XGBoost. In this paper, we propose Adaptive Forests (AF), a novel approach that adaptively selects the weights of the underlying CART models. AF combines (a) the Optimal Predictive-Policy Trees (OP2T) framework to prescribe tailored, input-dependent unequal weights to trees and (b) Mixed Integer Optimization (MIO) to refine weight candidates dynamically, enhancing overall performance. We demonstrate that AF consistently outperforms RF, XGBoost, and other weighted RF in binary and multi-class classification problems over 20+ real-world datasets.

Approximate Nearest Neighbor (ANN) search and Approximate Kernel Density Estimation (A-KDE) are fundamental problems at the core of modern machine learning, with broad applications in data analysis, information systems, and large-scale decision making. In massive and dynamic data streams, a central challenge is to design compact sketches that preserve essential structural properties of the data while enabling efficient queries. In this work, we develop new sketching algorithms that achieve sublinear space and query time guarantees for both ANN and A-KDE for a dynamic stream of data. For ANN in the streaming model, under natural assumptions, we design a sublinear sketch that requires only $\mathcal{O}(n^{1+ρ-η})$ memory by storing only a sublinear ($n^{-η}$) fraction of the total inputs, where $ρ$ is a parameter of the LSH family, and $0<η<1$. Our method supports sublinear query time, batch queries, and extends to the more general Turnstile model. While earlier works have focused on Exact NN, this is the first result on ANN that achieves near-optimal trade-offs between memory size and approximation error. Next, for A-KDE in the Sliding-Window model, we propose a sketch of size $\mathcal{O}\left(RW \cdot \frac{1}{\sqrt{1+ε} - 1} \log^2 N\right)$, where $R$ is the number of sketch rows, $W$ is the LSH range, $N$ is the window size, and $ε$ is the approximation error. This, to the best of our knowledge, is the first theoretical sublinear sketch guarantee for A-KDE in the Sliding-Window model. We complement our theoretical results with experiments on various real-world datasets, which show that the proposed sketches are lightweight and achieve consistently low error in practice.

Traditional clustering algorithms often struggle with high-dimensional and non-uniformly distributed data, where low-density boundary samples are easily disturbed by neighboring clusters, leading to unstable and distorted clustering results. To address this issue, we propose a Group-driven Clustering via Gravitational Attraction and Optimization (GCAO) algorithm. GCAO introduces a group-level optimization mechanism that aggregates low-density boundary points into collaboratively moving groups, replacing the traditional point-based contraction process. By combining local density estimation with neighborhood topology, GCAO constructs effective gravitational interactions between groups and their surroundings, enhancing boundary clarity and structural consistency. Using groups as basic motion units, a gravitational contraction strategy ensures globally stable and directionally consistent convergence. Experiments on multiple high-dimensional datasets demonstrate that GCAO outperforms 11 representative clustering methods, achieving average improvements of 37.13%, 52.08%, 44.98%, and 38.81% in NMI, ARI, Homogeneity, and ACC, respectively, while maintaining competitive efficiency and scalability. These results highlight GCAO's superiority in preserving cluster integrity, enhancing boundary separability, and ensuring robust performance on complex data distributions.

Online learning algorithms continually update their models as data arrive, making it essential to accurately estimate the expected loss at the current time step. The prequential method is an effective estimation approach which can be practically deployed in various ways. However, theoretical guarantees have previously been established under strong conditions on the algorithm, and practical algorithms have hyperparameters which require careful tuning. We introduce OEUVRE, an estimator that evaluates each incoming sample on the function learned at the current and previous time steps, recursively updating the loss estimate in constant time and memory. We use algorithmic stability, a property satisfied by many popular online learners, for optimal updates and prove consistency, convergence rates, and concentration bounds for our estimator. We design a method to adap-tively tune OEUVRE's hyperparameters and test it across diverse online and stochastic tasks. We observe that OEUVRE matches or outperforms other estimators even when their hyperparameters are tuned with oracle access to ground truth.

The estimation of unknown parameters in nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) offers valuable insights across a wide range of scientific domains. In this work, we focus on estimating plant root parameters in the Richards equation, which is essential for understanding the soil-plant system in agricultural studies. Since conventional methods are computationally intensive and often yield unstable estimates, we develop a new Gaussian process collocation method for efficient Bayesian inference. Unlike existing Gaussian process-based approaches, our method constructs an approximate posterior distribution using samples drawn from a Gaussian process model fitted to the observed data, which does not require any structural assumption about the underlying PDE. Further, we propose to use an importance sampling procedure to correct for the discrepancy between the approximate and true posterior distributions. As an alternative, we also devise a prior-guided Bayesian optimization algorithm leveraging the approximate posterior. Simulation studies demonstrate that our method yields robust estimates under various settings. Finally, we apply our method on a real agricultural data set and estimate the plant root parameters with uncertainty quantification.