Training time-series forecast models requires aligning the conditional distribution of model forecasts with that of the label sequence. The standard direct forecast (DF) approach resorts to minimize the conditional negative log-likelihood of the label sequence, typically estimated using the mean squared error. However, this estimation proves to be biased in the presence of label autocorrelation. In this paper, we propose DistDF, which achieves alignment by alternatively minimizing a discrepancy between the conditional forecast and label distributions. Because conditional discrepancies are difficult to estimate from finite time-series observations, we introduce a newly proposed joint-distribution Wasserstein discrepancy for time-series forecasting, which provably upper bounds the conditional discrepancy of interest. This discrepancy admits tractable, differentiable estimation from empirical samples and integrates seamlessly with gradient-based training. Extensive experiments show that DistDF improves the performance diverse forecast models and achieves the state-of-the-art forecasting performance. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/DistDF-F66B.

Neutron irradiation produces, within a few picoseconds, displacement cascades that are sequences of atomic collisions generating point and extended defects which subsequently affects the long-term evolution of materials. The diversity of these defects, characterized morphologically and statistically, defines what is called the "primary damage". In this work, we present a fully unsupervised machine learning (ML) workflow that detects and classifies these defects directly from molecular dynamics data. Local environments are encoded by the Smooth Overlap of Atomic Positions (SOAP) vector, anomalous atoms are isolated with autoencoder neural networks (AE), embedded with Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) and clustered using Hierarchical Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (HDBSCAN). Applied to 80 keV displacement cascades in Ni, Fe$_7$0Ni$_{10}$Cr$_{20}$, and Zr, the AE successfully identify the small fraction of outlier atoms that participate in defect formation. HDBSCAN then partitions the UMAP latent space of AE-flagged SOAP descriptors into well defined groups representing vacancy- and interstitial-dominated regions and, within each, separates small from large aggregates, assigning 99.7 % of outliers to compact physical motifs. A signed cluster-identification score confirms this separation, and cluster size scales with net defect counts (R2 > 0.89). Statistical cross analyses between the ML outlier map and several conventional detectors (centrosymmetry, dislocation extraction, etc.) reveal strong overlap and complementary coverage, all achieved without template or threshold tuning. This ML workflow thus provides an efficient tool for the quantitative mapping of structural anomalies in materials, particularly those arising from irradiation damage in displacement cascades.

Scientific talks are a growing medium for disseminating research, and automatically identifying relevant literature that grounds or enriches a talk would be highly valuable for researchers and students alike. We introduce Reference Prediction from Talks (RPT), a new task that maps long, and unstructured scientific presentations to relevant papers. To support research on RPT, we present Talk2Ref, the first large-scale dataset of its kind, containing 6,279 talks and 43,429 cited papers (26 per talk on average), where relevance is approximated by the papers cited in the talk's corresponding source publication. We establish strong baselines by evaluating state-of-the-art text embedding models in zero-shot retrieval scenarios, and propose a dual-encoder architecture trained on Talk2Ref. We further explore strategies for handling long transcripts, as well as training for domain adaptation. Our results show that fine-tuning on Talk2Ref significantly improves citation prediction performance, demonstrating both the challenges of the task and the effectiveness of our dataset for learning semantic representations from spoken scientific content. The dataset and trained models are released under an open license to foster future research on integrating spoken scientific communication into citation recommendation systems.

The theory of training deep networks has become a central question of modern machine learning and has inspired many practical advancements. In particular, the gradient descent (GD) optimization algorithm has been extensively studied in recent years. A key assumption about GD has appeared in several recent works: the \emph{GD map is non-singular} -- it preserves sets of measure zero under preimages. Crucially, this assumption has been used to prove that GD avoids saddle points and maxima, and to establish the existence of a computable quantity that determines the convergence to global minima (both for GD and stochastic GD). However, the current literature either assumes the non-singularity of the GD map or imposes restrictive assumptions, such as Lipschitz smoothness of the loss (for example, Lipschitzness does not hold for deep ReLU networks with the cross-entropy loss) and restricts the analysis to GD with small step-sizes. In this paper, we investigate the neural network map as a function on the space of weights and biases. We also prove, for the first time, the non-singularity of the gradient descent (GD) map on the loss landscape of realistic neural network architectures (with fully connected, convolutional, or softmax attention layers) and piecewise analytic activations (which includes sigmoid, ReLU, leaky ReLU, etc.) for almost all step-sizes. Our work significantly extends the existing results on the convergence of GD and SGD by guaranteeing that they apply to practical neural network settings and has the potential to unlock further exploration of learning dynamics.

Time series forecasting and anomaly detection are common tasks for practitioners in industries such as retail, manufacturing, advertising and energy. Two unique challenges stand out: (1) efficiently and accurately forecasting time series or detecting anomalies in large volumes automatically; and (2) ensuring interpretability of results to effectively incorporate business insights. We present ARIMA_PLUS, a novel framework to overcome these two challenges by a unique combination of (a) accurate and interpretable time series models and (b) scalable and fully managed system infrastructure. The model has a sequential and modular structure to handle different components of the time series, including holiday effects, seasonality, trend, and anomalies, which enables high interpretability of the results. Novel enhancements are made to each module, and a unified framework is established to address both forecasting and anomaly detection tasks simultaneously. In terms of accuracy, its comprehensive benchmark on the 42 public datasets in the Monash forecasting repository shows superior performance over not only well-established statistical alternatives (such as ETS, ARIMA, TBATS, Prophet) but also newer neural network models (such as DeepAR, N-BEATS, PatchTST, TimeMixer). In terms of infrastructure, it is directly built into the query engine of BigQuery in Google Cloud. It uses a simple SQL interface and automates tedious technicalities such as data cleaning and model selection. It automatically scales with managed cloud computational and storage resources, making it possible to forecast 100 million time series using only 1.5 hours with a throughput of more than 18000 time series per second. In terms of interpretability, we present several case studies to demonstrate time series insights it generates and customizability it offers.

Synthetic data offers a promising solution to the privacy and accessibility challenges of using smart card data in public transport research. Despite rapid progress in generative modeling, there is limited attention to comprehensive evaluation, leaving unclear how reliable, safe, and useful synthetic data truly are. Existing evaluations remain fragmented, typically limited to population-level representativeness or record-level privacy, without considering group-level variations or task-specific utility. To address this gap, we propose a Representativeness-Privacy-Utility (RPU) framework that systematically evaluates synthetic trip data across three complementary dimensions and three hierarchical levels (record, group, population). The framework integrates a consistent set of metrics to quantify similarity, disclosure risk, and practical usefulness, enabling transparent and balanced assessment of synthetic data quality. We apply the framework to benchmark twelve representative generation methods, spanning conventional statistical models, deep generative networks, and privacy-enhanced variants. Results show that synthetic data do not inherently guarantee privacy and there is no "one-size-fits-all" model, the trade-off between privacy and representativeness/utility is obvious. Conditional Tabular generative adversarial network (CTGAN) provide the most balanced trade-off and is suggested for practical applications. The RPU framework provides a systematic and reproducible basis for researchers and practitioners to compare synthetic data generation techniques and select appropriate methods in public transport applications.

Machine Learning (ML) models are widely used in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, where the reliability of predictions is critical. However, these models often fail to account for uncertainty, providing predictions even with low confidence. This work proposes a novel two-step data-centric approach to enhance the performance of ML models by improving data quality and filtering low-confidence predictions. The first step involves leveraging Instance Hardness (IH) to filter problematic instances during training, thereby refining the dataset. The second step introduces a confidence-based rejection mechanism during inference, ensuring that only reliable predictions are retained. We evaluate our approach using three real-world healthcare datasets, demonstrating its effectiveness at improving model reliability while balancing predictive performance and rejection rate. Additionally, we use alternative criteria - influence values for filtering and uncertainty for rejection - as baselines to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed method. The results demonstrate that integrating IH filtering with confidence-based rejection effectively enhances model performance while preserving a large proportion of instances. This approach provides a practical method for deploying ML systems in safety-critical applications.

Remote sensing applications increasingly rely on deep learning for scene classification. However, their performance is often constrained by the scarcity of labeled data and the high cost of annotation across diverse geographic and sensor domains. While recent vision-language models like CLIP have shown promise by learning transferable representations at scale by aligning visual and textual modalities, their direct application to remote sensing remains suboptimal due to significant domain gaps and the need for task-specific semantic adaptation. To address this critical challenge, we systematically explore prompt learning as a lightweight and efficient adaptation strategy for few-shot remote sensing image scene classification. We evaluate several representative methods, including Context Optimization, Conditional Context Optimization, Multi-modal Prompt Learning, and Prompting with Self-Regulating Constraints. These approaches reflect complementary design philosophies: from static context optimization to conditional prompts for enhanced generalization, multi-modal prompts for joint vision-language adaptation, and semantically regularized prompts for stable learning without forgetting. We benchmark these prompt-learning methods against two standard baselines: zero-shot CLIP with hand-crafted prompts and a linear probe trained on frozen CLIP features. Through extensive experiments on multiple benchmark remote sensing datasets, including cross-dataset generalization tests, we demonstrate that prompt learning consistently outperforms both baselines in few-shot scenarios. Notably, Prompting with Self-Regulating Constraints achieves the most robust cross-domain performance. Our findings underscore prompt learning as a scalable and efficient solution for bridging the domain gap in satellite and aerial imagery, providing a strong foundation for future research in this field.

Bayesian clustering accounts for uncertainty but is computationally demanding at scale. Furthermore, real-world datasets often contain missing values, and simple imputation ignores the associated uncertainty, resulting in suboptimal results. We present Cluster-PFN, a Transformer-based model that extends Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs) to unsupervised Bayesian clustering. Trained entirely on synthetic datasets generated from a finite Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) prior, Cluster-PFN learns to estimate the posterior distribution over both the number of clusters and the cluster assignments. Our method estimates the number of clusters more accurately than handcrafted model selection procedures such as AIC, BIC and Variational Inference (VI), and achieves clustering quality competitive with VI while being orders of magnitude faster. Cluster-PFN can be trained on complex priors that include missing data, outperforming imputation-based baselines on real-world genomic datasets, at high missingness. These results show that the Cluster-PFN can provide scalable and flexible Bayesian clustering.

Equation Discovery techniques have shown considerable success in regression tasks, where they are used to discover concise and interpretable models (\textit{Symbolic Regression}). In this paper, we propose a new ED-based binary classification framework. Our proposed method EDC finds analytical functions of manageable size that specify the location and shape of the decision boundary. In extensive experiments on artificial and real-life data, we demonstrate how EDC is able to discover both the structure of the target equation as well as the value of its parameters, outperforming the current state-of-the-art ED-based classification methods in binary classification and achieving performance comparable to the state of the art in binary classification. We suggest a grammar of modest complexity that appears to work well on the tested datasets but argue that the exact grammar -- and thus the complexity of the models -- is configurable, and especially domain-specific expressions can be included in the pattern language, where that is required. The presented grammar consists of a series of summands (additive terms) that include linear, quadratic and exponential terms, as well as products of two features (producing hyperbolic curves ideal for capturing XOR-like dependencies). The experiments demonstrate that this grammar allows fairly flexible decision boundaries while not so rich to cause overfitting.