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 Statistical Learning


Gradient Descent as Loss Landscape Navigation: a Normative Framework for Deriving Learning Rules

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Learning rules -- prescriptions for updating model parameters to improve performance -- are typically assumed rather than derived. Why do some learning rules work better than others, and under what assumptions can a given rule be considered optimal? We propose a theoretical framework that casts learning rules as policies for navigating (partially observable) loss landscapes, and identifies optimal rules as solutions to an associated optimal control problem. A range of well-known rules emerge naturally within this framework under different assumptions: gradient descent from short-horizon optimization, momentum from longer-horizon planning, natural gradients from accounting for parameter space geometry, non-gradient rules from partial controllability, and adaptive optimizers like Adam from online Bayesian inference of loss landscape shape. We further show that continual learning strategies like weight resetting can be understood as optimal responses to task uncertainty. By unifying these phenomena under a single objective, our framework clarifies the computational structure of learning and offers a principled foundation for designing adaptive algorithms.


Fine-Grained Iterative Adversarial Attacks with Limited Computation Budget

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work tackles a critical challenge in AI safety research under limited compute: given a fixed computation budget, how can one maximize the strength of iterative adversarial attacks? Coarsely reducing the number of attack iterations lowers cost but substantially weakens effectiveness. To fulfill the attainable attack efficacy within a constrained budget, we propose a fine-grained control mechanism that selectively recomputes layer activations across both iteration-wise and layer-wise levels. Extensive experiments show that our method consistently outperforms existing baselines at equal cost. Moreover, when integrated into adversarial training, it attains comparable performance with only 30% of the original budget. Adversarial attacks, which craft imperceptible perturbations to input data to degrade the performance of deep learning models, have become a central topic in the safety and robustness of AI systems. From the attack perspective, iterative adversarial methods such as Projected Gradient Descent (PGD) (Madry et al., 2017) are widely adopted as strong oracles to benchmark the robustness of modern neural networks.


Predicting Household Water Consumption Using Satellite and Street View Images in Two Indian Cities

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Monitoring household water use in rapidly urbanizing regions is hampered by costly, time-intensive enumeration methods and surveys. We investigate whether publicly available imagery-satellite tiles, Google Street View (GSV) segmentation-and simple geospatial covariates (nightlight intensity, population density) can be utilized to predict household water consumption in Hubballi-Dharwad, India. We compare four approaches: survey features (benchmark), CNN embeddings (satellite, GSV, combined), and GSV semantic maps with auxiliary data. Under an ordinal classification framework, GSV segmentation plus remote-sensing covariates achieves 0.55 accuracy for water use, approaching survey-based models (0.59 accuracy). Error analysis shows high precision at extremes of the household water consumption distribution, but confusion among middle classes is due to overlapping visual proxies. We also compare and contrast our estimates for household water consumption to that of household subjective income. Our findings demonstrate that open-access imagery, coupled with minimal geospatial data, offers a promising alternative to obtaining reliable household water consumption estimates using surveys in urban analytics.


Mind the Gaps: Auditing and Reducing Group Inequity in Large-Scale Mobility Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Next location prediction underpins a growing number of mobility, retail, and public-health applications, yet its societal impacts remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we audit state-of-the-art mobility prediction models trained on a large-scale dataset, highlighting hidden disparities based on user demographics. Drawing from aggregate census data, we compute the difference in predictive performance on racial and ethnic user groups and show a systematic disparity resulting from the underlying dataset, resulting in large differences in accuracy based on location and user groups. To address this, we propose Fairness-Guided Incremental Sampling (FGIS), a group-aware sampling strategy designed for incremental data collection settings. Because individual-level demographic labels are unavailable, we introduce Size-Aware K-Means (SAKM), a clustering method that partitions users in latent mobility space while enforcing census-derived group proportions. This yields proxy racial labels for the four largest groups in the state: Asian, Black, Hispanic, and White. Built on these labels, our sampling algorithm prioritizes users based on expected performance gains and current group representation. This method incrementally constructs training datasets that reduce demographic performance gaps while preserving overall accuracy. Our method reduces total disparity between groups by up to 40\% with minimal accuracy trade-offs, as evaluated on a state-of-art MetaPath2Vec model and a transformer-encoder model. Improvements are most significant in early sampling stages, highlighting the potential for fairness-aware strategies to deliver meaningful gains even in low-resource settings. Our findings expose structural inequities in mobility prediction pipelines and demonstrate how lightweight, data-centric interventions can improve fairness with little added complexity, especially for low-data applications.


VISAT: Benchmarking Adversarial and Distribution Shift Robustness in Traffic Sign Recognition with Visual Attributes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present VISAT, a novel open dataset and benchmarking suite for evaluating model robustness in the task of traffic sign recognition with the presence of visual attributes. Built upon the Mapillary Traffic Sign Dataset (MTSD), our dataset introduces two benchmarks that respectively emphasize robustness against adversarial attacks and distribution shifts. For our adversarial attack benchmark, we employ the state-of-the-art Projected Gradient Descent (PGD) method to generate adversarial inputs and evaluate their impact on popular models. Additionally, we investigate the effect of adversarial attacks on attribute-specific multi-task learning (MTL) networks, revealing spurious correlations among MTL tasks. The MTL networks leverage visual attributes (color, shape, symbol, and text) that we have created for each traffic sign in our dataset. For our distribution shift benchmark, we utilize ImageNet-C's realistic data corruption and natural variation techniques to perform evaluations on the robustness of both base and MTL models. Moreover, we further explore spurious correlations among MTL tasks through synthetic alterations of traffic sign colors using color quantization techniques. Our experiments focus on two major backbones, ResNet-152 and ViT-B/32, and compare the performance between base and MTL models. The VISAT dataset and benchmarking framework contribute to the understanding of model robustness for traffic sign recognition, shedding light on the challenges posed by adversarial attacks and distribution shifts. We believe this work will facilitate advancements in developing more robust models for real-world applications in autonomous driving and cyber-physical systems.


SmoothGuard: Defending Multimodal Large Language Models with Noise Perturbation and Clustering Aggregation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have achieved impressive performance across diverse tasks by jointly reasoning over textual and visual inputs. Despite their success, these models remain highly vulnerable to adversarial manipulations, raising concerns about their safety and reliability in deployment. In this work, we first generalize an approach for generating adversarial images within the HuggingFace ecosystem and then introduce SmoothGuard, a lightweight and model-agnostic defense framework that enhances the robustness of MLLMs through randomized noise injection and clustering-based prediction aggregation. Our method perturbs continuous modalities (e.g., images and audio) with Gaussian noise, generates multiple candidate outputs, and applies embedding-based clustering to filter out adversarially influenced predictions. The final answer is selected from the majority cluster, ensuring stable responses even under malicious perturbations. Extensive experiments on POPE, LLaVA-Bench (In-the-Wild), and MM-SafetyBench demonstrate that SmoothGuard improves resilience to adversarial attacks while maintaining competitive utility. Ablation studies further identify an optimal noise range (0.1-0.2) that balances robustness and utility.


Cross-Corpus Validation of Speech Emotion Recognition in Urdu using Domain-Knowledge Acoustic Features

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Speech Emotion Recognition (SER) is a key affective computing technology that enables emotionally intelligent artificial intelligence. While SER is challenging in general, it is particularly difficult for low-resource languages such as Urdu. This study investigates Urdu SER in a cross-corpus setting, an area that has remained largely unexplored. We employ a cross-corpus evaluation framework across three different Urdu emotional speech datasets to test model generalization. Two standard domain-knowledge based acoustic feature sets, eGeMAPS and ComParE, are used to represent speech signals as feature vectors which are then passed to Logistic Regression and Multilayer Perceptron classifiers. Classification performance is assessed using unweighted average recall (UAR) whilst considering class-label imbalance. Results show that Self-corpus validation often overestimates performance, with UAR exceeding cross-corpus evaluation by up to 13%, underscoring that cross-corpus evaluation offers a more realistic measure of model robustness. Overall, this work emphasizes the importance of cross-corpus validation for Urdu SER and its implications contribute to advancing affective computing research for underrepresented language communities.


Systematic Absence of Low-Confidence Nighttime Fire Detections in VIIRS Active Fire Product: Evidence of Undocumented Algorithmic Filtering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) active fire product is widely used for global fire monitoring, yet its confidence classification scheme exhibits an undocumented systematic pattern. Through analysis of 21,540,921 fire detections spanning one year (January 2023 - January 2024), I demonstrate a complete absence of low-confidence classifications during nighttime observations. Of 6,007,831 nighttime fires, zero were classified as low confidence, compared to an expected 696,908 under statistical independence (chi-squared = 1,474,795, p < 10^-15, Z = -833). This pattern persists globally across all months, latitude bands, and both NOAA-20 and Suomi-NPP satellites. Machine learning reverse-engineering (88.9% accuracy), bootstrap simulation (1,000 iterations), and spatial-temporal analysis confirm this is an algorithmic constraint rather than a geophysical phenomenon. Brightness temperature analysis reveals nighttime fires below approximately 295K are likely excluded entirely rather than flagged as low-confidence, while daytime fires show normal confidence distributions. This undocumented behavior affects 27.9% of all VIIRS fire detections and has significant implications for fire risk assessment, day-night detection comparisons, confidence-weighted analyses, and any research treating confidence levels as uncertainty metrics. I recommend explicit documentation of this algorithmic constraint in VIIRS user guides and reprocessing strategies for affected analyses.


Diabetes Lifestyle Medicine Treatment Assistance Using Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Type 2 diabetes prevention and treatment can benefit from personalized lifestyle prescriptions. However, the delivery of personalized lifestyle medicine prescriptions is limited by the shortage of trained professionals and the variability in physicians' expertise. We propose an offline contextual bandit approach that learns individualized lifestyle prescriptions from the aggregated NHANES profiles of 119,555 participants by minimizing the Magni glucose risk-reward function. The model encodes patient status and generates lifestyle medicine prescriptions, which are trained using a mixed-action Soft Actor-Critic algorithm. The task is treated as a single-step contextual bandit. The model is validated against lifestyle medicine prescriptions issued by three certified physicians from Xiangya Hospital. These results demonstrate that offline mixed-action SAC can generate risk-aware lifestyle medicine prescriptions from cross-sectional NHANES data, warranting prospective clinical validation.


Faithful and Fast Influence Function via Advanced Sampling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

How can we explain the influence of training data on black-box models? Influence functions (IFs) offer a post-hoc solution by utilizing gradients and Hessians. However, computing the Hessian for an entire dataset is resource-intensive, necessitating a feasible alternative. A common approach involves randomly sampling a small subset of the training data, but this method often results in highly inconsistent IF estimates due to the high variance in sample configurations. To address this, we propose two advanced sampling techniques based on features and logits. These samplers select a small yet representative subset of the entire dataset by considering the stochastic distribution of features or logits, thereby enhancing the accuracy of IF estimations. We validate our approach through class removal experiments, a typical application of IFs, using the F1-score to measure how effectively the model forgets the removed class while maintaining inference consistency on the remaining classes. Our method reduces computation time by 30.1% and memory usage by 42.2%, or improves the F1-score by 2.5% compared to the baseline.