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 Statistical Learning


Autonomous Vehicle Path Planning by Searching With Differentiable Simulation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Planning allows an agent to safely refine its actions before executing them in the real world. In autonomous driving, this is crucial to avoid collisions and navigate in complex, dense traffic scenarios. One way to plan is to search for the best action sequence. However, this is challenging when all necessary components - policy, next-state predictor, and critic - have to be learned. Here we propose Differentiable Simulation for Search (DSS), a framework that leverages the differentiable simulator Waymax as both a next state predictor and a critic. It relies on the simulator's hardcoded dynamics, making state predictions highly accurate, while utilizing the simulator's differentiability to effectively search across action sequences. Our DSS agent optimizes its actions using gradient descent over imagined future trajectories. We show experimentally that DSS - the combination of planning gradients and stochastic search - significantly improves tracking and path planning accuracy compared to sequence prediction, imitation learning, model-free RL, and other planning methods.


Bringing Stability to Diffusion: Decomposing and Reducing Variance of Training Masked Diffusion Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Masked diffusion models (MDMs) are a promising alternative to autoregressive models (ARMs), but they suffer from inherently much higher training variance. High variance leads to noisier gradient estimates and unstable optimization, so even equally strong pretrained MDMs and ARMs that are competitive at initialization often diverge after task-specific training, with MDMs falling far behind. There has been no theoretical explanation or systematic solution. We derive the first decomposition of MDM training variance into three sources: (A) masking pattern noise, (B) masking rate noise, and (C) data noise, while ARMs are only affected by (C). This explains the fundamental training gap. Building on this foundation, we design six variance-reduction methods, including two core methods: (1) P-POTS, a Pareto-optimal t sampler that minimizes training variance by sampling harder t values more often with appropriately smaller update steps, and (2) MIRROR, which uses negatively correlated samples to reduce (A). Experiments show that compared to standard MDM training, our methods improve accuracy by 7-8% on complex reasoning tasks, while simultaneously reducing run-to-run variability to near ARM levels, substantially narrowing the gap with strong ARM baselines; in most settings, even the best baseline runs remain below the worst run of our method.


Adaptive Mesh-Quantization for Neural PDE Solvers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Physical systems commonly exhibit spatially varying complexity, presenting a significant challenge for neural PDE solvers. While Graph Neural Networks can handle the irregular meshes required for complex geometries and boundary conditions, they still apply uniform computational effort across all nodes regardless of the underlying physics complexity. This leads to inefficient resource allocation where computationally simple regions receive the same treatment as complex phenomena. We address this challenge by introducing Adaptive Mesh Quantization: spatially adaptive quantization across mesh node, edge, and cluster features, dynamically adjusting the bit-width used by a quantized model. We propose an adaptive bit-width allocation strategy driven by a lightweight auxiliary model that identifies high-loss regions in the input mesh. This enables dynamic resource distribution in the main model, where regions of higher difficulty are allocated increased bit-width, optimizing computational resource utilization. We demonstrate our framework's effectiveness by integrating it with two state-of-the-art models, MP-PDE and GraphViT, to evaluate performance across multiple tasks: 2D Darcy flow, large-scale unsteady fluid dynamics in 2D, steady-state Navier-Stokes simulations in 3D, and a 2D hyper-elasticity problem. Our framework demonstrates consistent Pareto improvements over uniformly quantized baselines, yielding up to 50% improvements in performance at the same cost.


Feature Ranking in Credit-Risk with Qudit-Based Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In finance, predictive models must balance accuracy and interpretability, particularly in credit risk assessment, where model decisions carry material consequences. We present a quantum neural network (QNN) based on a single qudit, in which both data features and trainable parameters are co-encoded within a unified unitary evolution generated by the full Lie algebra. This design explores the entire Hilbert space while enabling interpretability through the magnitudes of the learned coefficients. We benchmark our model on a real-world, imbalanced credit-risk dataset from Taiwan. The proposed QNN consistently outperforms LR and reaches the results of random forest models in macro-F1 score while preserving a transparent correspondence between learned parameters and input feature importance. To quantify the interpretability of the proposed model, we introduce two complementary metrics: (i) the edit distance between the model's feature ranking and that of LR, and (ii) a feature-poisoning test where selected features are replaced with noise. Results indicate that the proposed quantum model achieves competitive performance while offering a tractable path toward interpretable quantum learning.


Solar-GECO: Perovskite Solar Cell Property Prediction with Geometric-Aware Co-Attention

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Perovskite solar cells are promising candidates for next-generation photovoltaics. However, their performance as multi-scale devices is determined by complex interactions between their constituent layers. This creates a vast combinatorial space of possible materials and device architectures, making the conventional experimental-based screening process slow and expensive. Machine learning models try to address this problem, but they only focus on individual material properties or neglect the important geometric information of the perovskite crystal. To address this problem, we propose to predict perovskite solar cell power conversion efficiency with a geometric-aware co-attention (Solar-GECO) model. Solar-GECO combines a geometric graph neural network (GNN) - that directly encodes the atomic structure of the perovskite absorber - with language model embeddings that process the textual strings representing the chemical compounds of the transport layers and other device components. Solar-GECO also integrates a co-attention module to capture intra-layer dependencies and inter-layer interactions, while a probabilistic regression head predicts both power conversion efficiency (PCE) and its associated uncertainty. Solar-GECO achieves state-of-the-art performance, significantly outperforming several baselines, reducing the mean absolute error (MAE) for PCE prediction from 3.066 to 2.936 compared to semantic GNN (the previous state-of-the-art model). Solar-GECO demonstrates that integrating geometric and textual information provides a more powerful and accurate framework for PCE prediction.


SimDiff: Simpler Yet Better Diffusion Model for Time Series Point Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Diffusion models have recently shown promise in time series forecasting, particularly for probabilistic predictions. However, they often fail to achieve state-of-the-art point estimation performance compared to regression-based methods. This limitation stems from difficulties in providing sufficient contextual bias to track distribution shifts and in balancing output diversity with the stability and precision required for point forecasts. Existing diffusion-based approaches mainly focus on full-distribution modeling under probabilistic frameworks, often with likelihood maximization objectives, while paying little attention to dedicated strategies for high-accuracy point estimation. Moreover, other existing point prediction diffusion methods frequently rely on pre-trained or jointly trained mature models for contextual bias, sacrificing the generative flexibility of diffusion models. To address these challenges, we propose SimDiff, a single-stage, end-to-end framework. SimDiff employs a single unified Transformer network carefully tailored to serve as both denoiser and predictor, eliminating the need for external pre-trained or jointly trained regressors. It achieves state-of-the-art point estimation performance by leveraging intrinsic output diversity and improving mean squared error accuracy through multiple inference ensembling. Key innovations, including normalization independence and the median-of-means estimator, further enhance adaptability and stability. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SimDiff significantly outperforms existing methods in time series point forecasting.


Empirical Comparison of Forgetting Mechanisms for UCB-based Algorithms on a Data-Driven Simulation Platform

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many real-world bandit problems involve non-stationary reward distributions, where the optimal decision may shift due to evolving environments. However, the performance of some typical Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) models such as Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) algorithms degrades significantly in non-stationary environments where reward distributions change over time. To address this limitation, this paper introduces and evaluates FDSW-UCB, a novel dual-view algorithm that integrates a discount-based long-term perspective with a sliding-window-based short-term view. A data-driven semi-synthetic simulation platform, built upon the MovieLens-1M and Open Bandit datasets, is developed to test algorithm adaptability under abrupt and gradual drift scenarios. Experimental results demonstrate that a well-configured sliding-window mechanism (SW-UCB) is robust, while the widely used discounting method (D-UCB) suffers from a fundamental learning failure, leading to linear regret. Crucially, the proposed FDSW-UCB, when employing an optimistic aggregation strategy, achieves superior performance in dynamic settings, highlighting that the ensemble strategy itself is a decisive factor for success.


In Machina N400: Pinpointing Where a Causal Language Model Detects Semantic Violations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

How and where does a transformer notice that a sentence has gone semantically off the rails? To explore this question, we evaluated the causal language model (phi-2) using a carefully curated corpus, with sentences that concluded plausibly or implausibly. Our analysis focused on the hidden states sampled at each model layer. To investigate how violations are encoded, we utilized two complementary probes. First, we conducted a per-layer detection using a linear probe. Our findings revealed that a simple linear decoder struggled to distinguish between plausible and implausible endings in the lowest third of the model's layers. However, its accuracy sharply increased in the middle blocks, reaching a peak just before the top layers. Second, we examined the effective dimensionality of the encoded violation. Initially, the violation widens the representational subspace, followed by a collapse after a mid-stack bottleneck. This might indicate an exploratory phase that transitions into rapid consolidation. Taken together, these results contemplate the idea of alignment with classical psycholinguistic findings in human reading, where semantic anomalies are detected only after syntactic resolution, occurring later in the online processing sequence.


BioArtlas: Computational Clustering of Multi-Dimensional Complexity in Bioart

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Bioart's hybrid nature spanning art, science, technology, ethics, and politics defies traditional single-axis categorization. I present BioArtlas, analyzing 81 bioart works across thirteen curated dimensions using novel axis-aware representations that preserve semantic distinctions while enabling cross-dimensional comparison. Our codebook-based approach groups related concepts into unified clusters, addressing polysemy in cultural terminology. Comprehensive evaluation of up to 800 representation-space-algorithm combinations identifies Agglomerative clustering at k=15 on 4D UMAP as optimal (silhouette 0.664 +/- 0.008, trustworthiness/continuity 0.805/0.812). The approach reveals four organizational patterns: artist-specific methodological cohesion, technique-based segmentation, temporal artistic evolution, and trans-temporal conceptual affinities. By separating analytical optimization from public communication, I provide rigorous analysis and accessible exploration through an interactive web interface (https://www.bioartlas.com) with the dataset publicly available (https://github.com/joonhyungbae/BioArtlas).


From Pixels to Posts: Retrieval-Augmented Fashion Captioning and Hashtag Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper introduces the retrieval-augmented framework for automatic fashion caption and hashtag generation, combining multi-garment detection, attribute reasoning, and Large Language Model (LLM) prompting. The system aims to produce visually grounded, descriptive, and stylistically interesting text for fashion imagery, overcoming the limitations of end-to-end captioners that have problems with attribute fidelity and domain generalization. The pipeline combines a YOLO-based detector for multi-garment localization, k-means clustering for dominant color extraction, and a CLIP-FAISS retrieval module for fabric and gender attribute inference based on a structured product index. These attributes, together with retrieved style examples, create a factual evidence pack that is used to guide an LLM to generate human-like captions and contextually rich hashtags. A fine-tuned BLIP model is used as a supervised baseline model for comparison. Experimental results show that the YOLO detector is able to obtain a mean Average Precision (mAP@0.5) of 0.71 for nine categories of garments. The RAG-LLM pipeline generates expressive attribute-aligned captions and achieves mean attribute coverage of 0.80 with full coverage at the 50% threshold in hashtag generation, whereas BLIP gives higher lexical overlap and lower generalization. The retrieval-augmented approach exhibits better factual grounding, less hallucination, and great potential for scalable deployment in various clothing domains. These results demonstrate the use of retrieval-augmented generation as an effective and interpretable paradigm for automated and visually grounded fashion content generation.