We propose a way of transforming the problem of conditional density estimation into a single nonparametric regression task via the introduction of auxiliary samples. This allows leveraging regression methods that work well in high dimensions, such as neural networks and decision trees. Our main theoretical result characterizes and establishes the convergence of our estimator to the true conditional density in the data limit. We develop condensité, a method that implements this approach. We demonstrate the benefit of the auxiliary samples on synthetic data and showcase that condensité can achieve good out-of-the-box results. We evaluate our method on a large population survey dataset and on a satellite imaging dataset. In both cases, we find that condensité matches or outperforms the state of the art and yields conditional densities in line with established findings in the literature on each dataset. Our contribution opens up new possibilities for regression-based conditional density estimation and the empirical results indicate strong promise for applied research.

Motivated by recent work involving the analysis of leveraging spatial correlations in sparsified mean estimation, we present a novel procedure for constructing covariance estimator. The proposed Random-knots (Random-knots-Spatial) and B-spline (Bspline-Spatial) estimators of the covariance function are computationally efficient. Asymptotic pointwise of the covariance are obtained for sparsified individual trajectories under some regularity conditions. Our proposed nonparametric method well perform the functional principal components analysis for the case of sparsified data, where the number of repeated measurements available per subject is small. In contrast, classical functional data analysis requires a large number of regularly spaced measurements per subject. Model selection techniques, such as the Akaike information criterion, are used to choose the model dimension corresponding to the number of eigenfunctions in the model. Theoretical results are illustrated with Monte Carlo simulation experiments. Finally, we cluster multi-domain data by replacing the covariance function with our proposed covariance estimator during PCA.

Quantum machine learning seeks to leverage quantum computers to improve upon classical machine learning algorithms. Currently, robust uncertainty quantification methods remain underdeveloped in the quantum domain, despite the critical need for reliable and trustworthy predictions. Recent work has introduced quantum conformal prediction, a framework that produces prediction sets that are guaranteed to contain the true outcome with user-specified probability. In this work, we formalise how the time-varying noise inherent in quantum processors can undermine conformal guarantees, even when calibration and test data are exchangeable. To address this challenge, we draw on Adaptive Conformal Inference, a method which maintains validity over time via repeated recalibration. We introduce Adaptive Quantum Conformal Prediction (AQCP), an algorithm which preserves asymptotic average coverage guarantees under arbitrary hardware noise conditions. Empirical studies on an IBM quantum processor demonstrate that AQCP achieves target coverage levels and exhibits greater stability than quantum conformal prediction.

Ecological Momentary Assessment provides real-time data on suicidal thoughts and behaviors, but predicting suicide attempts remains challenging due to their rarity and patient heterogeneity. We show that single models fit to all patients perform poorly, while individualized models improve performance but still overfit to patients with limited data. To address this, we introduce Latent Similarity Gaussian Processes (LSGPs) to capture patient heterogeneity, enabling those with little data to leverage similar patients' trends. Preliminary results show promise: even without kernel-design, we outperform all but one baseline while offering a new understanding of patient similarity.

We propose and analyze a variant of Sparse Polyak for high dimensional M-estimation problems. Sparse Polyak proposes a novel adaptive step-size rule tailored to suitably estimate the problem's curvature in the high-dimensional setting, guaranteeing that the algorithm's performance does not deteriorate when the ambient dimension increases. However, convergence guarantees can only be obtained by sacrificing solution sparsity and statistical accuracy. In this work, we introduce a variant of Sparse Polyak that retains its desirable scaling properties with respect to the ambient dimension while obtaining sparser and more accurate solutions.

In this work, we propose a set of conformal prediction procedures tailored to compositional responses, where outcomes are proportions that must be positive and sum to one. Building on Dirichlet regression, we introduce a split conformal approach based on quantile residuals and a highest-density region strategy that combines a fast coordinate-floor approximation with an internal grid refinement to restore sharpness. Both constructions are model-agnostic at the conformal layer and guarantee finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability, while respecting the geometry of the simplex. A comprehensive Monte Carlo study spanning homoscedastic and heteroscedastic designs shows that the quantile residual and grid-refined HDR methods achieve empirical coverage close to the nominal 90\% level and produce substantially narrower regions than the coordinate-floor approximation, which tends to be conservative. We further demonstrate the methods on household budget shares from the BudgetItaly dataset, using standardized socioeconomic and price covariates with a train, calibration, and test split. In this application, the grid-refined HDR attains coverage closest to the target with the smallest average widths, closely followed by the quantile residual approach, while the simple triangular HDR yields wider, less informative sets. Overall, the results indicate that conformal prediction on the simplex can be both calibrated and efficient, providing practical uncertainty quantification for compositional prediction tasks.

Hierarchical clustering seeks to uncover nested structures in data by constructing a tree of clusters, where deeper levels reveal finer-grained relationships. Traditional methods, including linkage approaches, face three major limitations: (i) they always return a hierarchy, even if none exists, (ii) they are restricted to binary trees, even if the true hierarchy is non-binary, and (iii) they are highly sensitive to the choice of linkage function. In this paper, we address these issues by introducing the notion of a valid hierarchy and defining a partial order over the set of valid hierarchies. We prove the existence of a finest valid hierarchy, that is, the hierarchy that encodes the maximum information consistent with the similarity structure of the data set. In particular, the finest valid hierarchy is not constrained to binary structures and, when no hierarchical relationships exist, collapses to a star tree. We propose a simple two-step algorithm that first constructs a binary tree via a linkage method and then prunes it to enforce validity. We establish necessary and sufficient conditions on the linkage function under which this procedure exactly recovers the finest valid hierarchy, and we show that all linkage functions satisfying these conditions yield the same hierarchy after pruning. Notably, classical linkage rules such as single, complete, and average satisfy these conditions, whereas Ward's linkage fails to do so.

We study differentially private model training with stochastic gradient descent under learning rate scheduling and correlated noise. Although correlated noise, in particular via matrix factorizations, has been shown to improve accuracy, prior theoretical work focused primarily on the prefix-sum workload. That workload assumes a constant learning rate, whereas in practice learning rate schedules are widely used to accelerate training and improve convergence. We close this gap by deriving general upper and lower bounds for a broad class of learning rate schedules in both single- and multi-epoch settings. Building on these results, we propose a learning-rate-aware factorization that achieves improvements over prefix-sum factorizations under both MaxSE and MeanSE error metrics. Our theoretical analysis yields memory-efficient constructions suitable for practical deployment, and experiments on CIFAR-10 and IMDB datasets confirm that schedule-aware factorizations improve accuracy in private training.

We develop a divergence-minimization (DM) framework for robust and efficient inference in latent-mixture models. By optimizing a residual-adjusted divergence, the DM approach recovers EM as a special case and yields robust alternatives through different divergence choices. We establish that the sample objective decreases monotonically along the iterates, leading the DM sequence to stationary points under standard conditions, and that at the population level the operator exhibits local contractivity near the minimizer. Additionally, we verify consistency and $\sqrt{n}$-asymptotic normality of minimum-divergence estimators and of finitely many DM iterations, showing that under correct specification their limiting covariance matches the Fisher information. Robustness is analyzed via the residual-adjustment function, yielding bounded influence functions and a strictly positive breakdown bound for bounded-RAF divergences, and we contrast this with the non-robust behaviour of KL/EM. Next, we address the challenge of determining the number of mixture components by proposing a penalized divergence criterion combined with repeated sample splitting, which delivers consistent order selection and valid post-selection inference. Empirically, DM instantiations based on Hellinger and negative exponential divergences deliver accurate inference and remain stable under contamination in mixture and image-segmentation tasks. The results clarify connections to MM and proximal-point methods and offer practical defaults, making DM a drop-in alternative to EM for robust latent-structure inference.

Many deployed learning systems must update models on streaming data under memory constraints. The default strategy, sequential fine-tuning on each new phase, is architecture-agnostic but often suffers catastrophic forgetting when later phases correspond to different sub-populations or tasks. Replay with a finite buffer is a simple alternative, yet its behaviour across generative and predictive objectives is not well understood. We present a unified study of stateful replay for streaming autoencoding, time series forecasting, and classification. We view both sequential fine-tuning and replay as stochastic gradient methods for an ideal joint objective, and use a gradient alignment analysis to show when mixing current and historical samples should reduce forgetting. We then evaluate a single replay mechanism on six streaming scenarios built from Rotated MNIST, ElectricityLoadDiagrams 2011-2014, and Airlines delay data, using matched training budgets and three seeds. On heterogeneous multi task streams, replay reduces average forgetting by a factor of two to three, while on benign time based streams both methods perform similarly. These results position stateful replay as a strong and simple baseline for continual learning in streaming environments.