We consider the problem of prediction of stationary time series, using the architecture known as mixtures of experts (MEM). Here we suggest a mixture which blends several autoregressive models. This study focuses on some theoretical foundations of the prediction problem in this context. More precisely, it is demonstrated that this model is a universal approximator, with respect to learning the unknown prediction function. This statement is strengthened as upper bounds on the mean squared error are established. Based on these results it is possible to compare the MEM to other families of models (e.g., neural networks and state dependent models). It is shown that a degenerate version of the MEM is in fact equivalent to a neural network, and the number of experts in the architecture plays a similar role to the number of hidden units in the latter model.

SaM can be said to do clustering/vector quantization (VQ) and at the same time to preserve the spatial ordering of the input data reflected by an ordering of the code book vectors (cluster centroids) in a one or two dimensional output space, where the latter property is closely related to multidimensional scaling (MDS) in statistics. Although the level of activity and research around the SaM algorithm is quite large (a recent overview by [Kohonen 95] contains more than 1000 citations), only little comparison among the numerous existing variants of the basic approach and also to more traditional statistical techniques of the larger frameworks of VQ and MDS is available. Additionally, there is only little advice in the literature about how to properly use 446 A. Flexer SOM in order to get optimal results in terms of either vector quantization (VQ) or multidimensional scaling or maybe even both of them. To make the notion of SOM being a tool for "data visualization" more precise, the following question has to be answered: Should SOM be used for doing VQ, MDS, both at the same time or none of them? Two recent comprehensive studies comparing SOM either to traditional VQ or MDS techniques separately seem to indicate that SOM is not competitive when used for either VQ or MDS: [Balakrishnan et al. 94J compare SOM to K-means clustering on 108 multivariate normal clustering problems with known clustering solutions and show that SOM performs significantly worse in terms of data points misclassified

This paper describes how the early visual process of contour organisation can be realised using the EM algorithm. The underlying computational representation is based on fine spline coverings. According to our EM approach the adjustment of spline parameters draws on an iterative weighted least-squares fitting process. The expectation step of our EM procedure computes the likelihood of the data using a mixture model defined over the set of spline coverings. These splines are limited in their spatial extent using Gaussian windowing functions.

We propose a novel approach to automatically growing and pruning Hierarchical Mixtures of Experts. The constructive algorithm proposed here enables large hierarchies consisting of several hundred experts to be trained effectively. We show that HME's trained by our automatic growing procedure yield better generalization performance than traditional static and balanced hierarchies. Evaluation of the algorithm is performed (1) on vowel classification and (2) within a hybrid version of the JANUS r9] speech recognition system using a subset of the Switchboard large-vocabulary speaker-independent continuous speech recognition database.

In this paper we apply the method of complexity regularization to derive estimation bounds for nonlinear function estimation using a single hidden layer radial basis function network.

The perturbation method which we have presented overcomes the limitations of standard approaches, which are only appropriate for models with a single layer of adjustable weights, albeit at considerable computational expense. It has the added bonus of automatically taking into account the effect of regularisation techniques such as weight decay. The experimental results illustrate the application of the technique to two simple problems. As expected the number of degrees of freedom in the models is found to be related to the amount of weight decay used during training. The equivalent kernels are found to vary significantly in different regions of input space and the functions reconstructed from the estimated smoother matrices closely match the origna!

BC Cancer Agency 601 West 10th Ave, Epidemiology 601 West 10th Ave, Epidemiology Vancouver BC Canada V5Z 1L3 Vancouver BC Canada V5Z 1L3 tap@comp.vuw.ac.nz Abstract Epidemiological data is traditionally analyzed with very simple techniques. Flexible models, such as neural networks, have the potential to discover unanticipated features in the data. However, to be useful, flexible models must have effective control on overfitting. This paper reports on a comparative study of the predictive quality of neural networks and other flexible models applied to real and artificial epidemiological data. The results suggest that there are no major unanticipated complex features in the real data, and also demonstrate that MacKay's [1995] Bayesian neural network methodology provides effective control on overfitting while retaining the ability to discover complex features in the artificial data. 1 Introduction Traditionally, very simple statistical techniques are used in the analysis of epidemiological studies.

Recognition of specific objects, such as recognition of a particular face, can be based on representations that are object centered, such as 3D structural models. Alternatively, a 3D object may be represented for the purpose of recognition in terms of a set of views. This latter class of models is biologically attractive because model acquisition - the learning phase - is simpler and more natural. A simple model for this strategy of object recognition was proposed by Poggio and Edelman (Poggio and Edelman, 1990). They showed that, with few views of an object used as training examples, a classification network, such as a Gaussian radial basis function network, can learn to recognize novel views of that object, in partic- 42 E. Bricolo, T. Poggio and N. Logothetis

The parameter space of neural networks has a Riemannian metric structure. The natural Riemannian gradient should be used instead of the conventional gradient, since the former denotes the true steepest descent direction of a loss function in the Riemannian space. The behavior of the stochastic gradient learning algorithm is much more effective if the natural gradient is used. The present paper studies the information-geometrical structure of perceptrons and other networks, and prove that the online learning method based on the natural gradient is asymptotically as efficient as the optimal batch algorithm. Adaptive modification of the learning constant is proposed and analyzed in terms of the Riemannian measure and is shown to be efficient.

Field (1994) has suggested that neurons with line and edge selectivities found in primary visual cortex of cats and monkeys form a sparse, distributed representation of natural scenes, and Barlow (1989) has reasoned that such responses should emerge from an unsupervised learning algorithm that attempts to find a factorial code of independent visual features. We show here that nonlinear'infomax', when applied to an ensemble of natural scenes, produces sets of visual filters that are localised and oriented. Some of these filters are Gabor-like and resemble those produced by the sparseness-maximisation network of Olshausen & Field (1996). In addition, the outputs of these filters are as independent as possible, since the infomax network is able to perform Independent Components Analysis (ICA). We compare the resulting ICA filters and their associated basis functions, with other decorrelating filters produced by Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and zero-phase whitening filters (ZCA).