Given a single observation from a Gaussian distribution with unknown mean $θ$, we design computationally efficient procedures that can approximately generate an observation from a different target distribution $Q_θ$ uniformly for all $θ$ in a parameter set. We leverage our technique to establish reduction-based computational lower bounds for several canonical high-dimensional statistical models under widely-believed conjectures in average-case complexity. In particular, we cover cases in which: 1. $Q_θ$ is a general location model with non-Gaussian distribution, including both light-tailed examples (e.g., generalized normal distributions) and heavy-tailed ones (e.g., Student's $t$-distributions). As a consequence, we show that computational lower bounds proved for spiked tensor PCA with Gaussian noise are universal, in that they extend to other non-Gaussian noise distributions within our class. 2. $Q_θ$ is a normal distribution with mean $f(θ)$ for a general, smooth, and nonlinear link function $f:\mathbb{R} \rightarrow \mathbb{R}$. Using this reduction, we construct a reduction from symmetric mixtures of linear regressions to generalized linear models with link function $f$, and establish computational lower bounds for solving the $k$-sparse generalized linear model when $f$ is an even function. This result constitutes the first reduction-based confirmation of a $k$-to-$k^2$ statistical-to-computational gap in $k$-sparse phase retrieval, resolving a conjecture posed by Cai et al. (2016). As a second application, we construct a reduction from the sparse rank-1 submatrix model to the planted submatrix model, establishing a pointwise correspondence between the phase diagrams of the two models that faithfully preserves regions of computational hardness and tractability.

Conformal prediction provides prediction sets with coverage guarantees. The informativeness of conformal prediction depends on its efficiency, typically quantified by the expected size of the prediction set. Prior work on the efficiency of conformalized regression commonly treats the miscoverage level $α$ as a fixed constant. In this work, we establish non-asymptotic bounds on the deviation of the prediction set length from the oracle interval length for conformalized quantile and median regression trained via SGD, under mild assumptions on the data distribution. Our bounds of order $\mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{n} + 1/(α^2 n) + 1/\sqrt{m} + \exp(-α^2 m))$ capture the joint dependence of efficiency on the proper training set size $n$, the calibration set size $m$, and the miscoverage level $α$. The results identify phase transitions in convergence rates across different regimes of $α$, offering guidance for allocating data to control excess prediction set length. Empirical results are consistent with our theoretical findings.

We study the propagation of outliers in cyclic causal graphs with linear structural equations, tracing them back to one or several "root cause" nodes. We show that it is possible to identify a short list of potential root causes provided that the perturbation is sufficiently strong and propagates according to the same structural equations as in the normal mode. This shortlist consists of the true root causes together with those of its parents lying on a cycle with the root cause. Notably, our method does not require prior knowledge of the causal graph.

Abstract--The 2024 July Revolution in Bangladesh represents a landmark event in the study of civil resistance: a successful, student-led civilian uprising that overthrew a long-standing authoritarian regime despite facing brutal state repression. This study investigates the central paradox of its success: how state violence, intended to quell dissent, ultimately fueled the movement's victory. We employ a mixed-methods approach. First, we develop a qualitative narrative of the conflict's timeline to generate specific, testable hypotheses. Then, using a disaggregated, event-level dataset, we employ a multi-method quantitative analysis to dissect the complex relationship between repression and mobilisation. We provide a framework to analyse explosive modern uprisings like the July Revolution. Initial pooled regression models highlight the crucial role of protest momentum (measured by a feedback loop effect) in sustaining the movement. T o isolate causal effects, we specify a Two-Way Fixed Effects panel model, which provides robust evidence for a direct and statistically significant local suppression backfire effect. Our V ector Autoregression (V AR) analysis provides clear visual evidence of an immediate, nationwide mobilisation in response to increased lethal violence. We further demonstrate that this effect was non-linear . A structural break analysis reveals that the backfire dynamic was statistically insignificant in the conflict's early phase but was triggered by the catalytic moral shock of the first wave of lethal violence, and its visuals circulated around July 16th. We conclude that the July Revolution was driven by a contingent, non-linear backfire, triggered by specific catalytic moral shocks and accelerated by the viral reaction to the visual spectacle of state brutality. N August 2024, the fifteen-year rule of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh came to a sudden and dramatic end. After weeks of escalating nationwide protests, she resigned from her post and fled the country. These authors contributed equally to this work. Saiful Bari Siddiqui is a Senior Lecturer at the Department of Computer Science and Engineering, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh (e-mail: saiful.bari@bracu.ac.bd). Anupam Debashis Roy is a PhD candidate at the Department of Sociology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom (e-mail: anu-pam.roy@sant.ox.ac.uk). In a matter of weeks, this initial spark grew into a nationwide fire, as hundreds of thousands of ordinary citizens joined the students, bringing the country to a standstill and achieving a political transformation that had seemed unthinkable just a month earlier.

Motivated by the growing interest in quantum machine learning, in particular quantum neural networks (QNNs), we study how recently introduced evaluation metrics based on the Fisher information matrix (FIM) are effective for predicting their training and prediction performance. We exploit the equivalence between a broad class of QNNs and Fourier models, and study the interplay between the \emph{effective dimension} and the \emph{bias} of a model towards a given task, investigating how these affect the model's training and performance. We show that for a model that is completely agnostic, or unbiased, towards the function to be learned, a higher effective dimension likely results in a better trainability and performance. On the other hand, for models that are biased towards the function to be learned a lower effective dimension is likely beneficial during training. To obtain these results, we derive an analytical expression of the FIM for Fourier models and identify the features controlling a model's effective dimension. This allows us to construct models with tunable effective dimension and bias, and to compare their training. We furthermore introduce a tensor network representation of the considered Fourier models, which could be a tool of independent interest for the analysis of QNN models. Overall, these findings provide an explicit example of the interplay between geometrical properties, model-task alignment and training, which are relevant for the broader machine learning community.

Edge devices have limited resources, which inevitably leads to situations where stream processing services cannot satisfy their needs. While existing autoscaling mechanisms focus entirely on resource scaling, Edge devices require alternative ways to sustain the Service Level Objectives (SLOs) of competing services. To address these issues, we introduce a Multi-dimensional Autoscaling Platform (MUDAP) that supports fine-grained vertical scaling across both service- and resource-level dimensions. MUDAP supports service-specific scaling tailored to available parameters, e.g., scale data quality or model size for a particular service. To optimize the execution across services, we present a scaling agent based on Regression Analysis of Structural Knowledge (RASK). The RASK agent efficiently explores the solution space and learns a continuous regression model of the processing environment for inferring optimal scaling actions. We compared our approach with two autoscalers, the Kubernetes VPA and a reinforcement learning agent, for scaling up to 9 services on a single Edge device. Our results showed that RASK can infer an accurate regression model in merely 20 iterations (i.e., observe 200s of processing). By increasingly adding elasticity dimensions, RASK sustained the highest request load with 28% less SLO violations, compared to baselines.

The performance of machine learning models depends heavily on training data. The scarcity of large-scale, well-annotated datasets poses significant challenges in creating robust models. To address this, synthetic data generated through simulations and generative models has emerged as a promising solution, enhancing dataset diversity and improving the performance, reliability, and resilience of models. However, evaluating the quality of this generated data requires an effective metric. This paper introduces the Synthetic Dataset Quality Metric (SDQM) to assess data quality for object detection tasks without requiring model training to converge. This metric enables more efficient generation and selection of synthetic datasets, addressing a key challenge in resource-constrained object detection tasks. In our experiments, SDQM demonstrated a strong correlation with the mean Average Precision (mAP) scores of YOLOv11, a leading object detection model, while previous metrics only exhibited moderate or weak correlations. Additionally, it provides actionable insights for improving dataset quality, minimizing the need for costly iterative training. This scalable and efficient metric sets a new standard for evaluating synthetic data.

Accurate time - series predictions in machine learning are heavily influenced by the selection of appropriate input time length and sampling rate. This paper introduces ATLO - ML, an adaptive time - length optimization system that automatically determines the optimal input time length and sampling rate based on user - defined output time length. The system provides a flexible approach to time - series data pre - processing, dynamically adjusting these parameters to enhance predictive performance. ATLO - ML is validated using air quality datasets, including both GAMS - dataset and proprietary data collected from a data center, both in time series format. Results demonstrate that utilizing the optimized time length and sampling rate significantly improves the accuracy of machine learning models compared to fixed time lengths. ATLO - ML shows potential for generalization across various time - sensitive applications, offering a robust solution for optimizing temporal input parameters in machine learning workflows .

We consider an important problem in scientific discovery, namely identifying sparse governing equations for nonlinear dynamical systems.

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