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 Regression







FasterRisk: Fast and Accurate Interpretable Risk Scores

Neural Information Processing Systems

Over the last century, risk scores have been the most popular form of predictive model used in healthcare and criminal justice. Risk scores are sparse linear models with integer coefficients; often these models can be memorized or placed on an index card. Typically, risk scores have been created either without data or by rounding logistic regression coefficients, but these methods do not reliably produce high-quality risk scores. Recent work used mathematical programming, which is computationally slow. We introduce an approach for efficiently producing a collection of high-quality risk scores learned from data. Specifically, our approach produces a pool of almost-optimal sparse continuous solutions, each with a different support set, using a beam-search algorithm. Each of these continuous solutions is transformed into a separate risk score through a star ray search, where a range of multipliers are considered before rounding the coefficients sequentially to maintain low logistic loss. Our algorithm returns all of these high-quality risk scores for the user to consider. This method completes within minutes and can be valuable in a broad variety of applications.


Wasserstein Logistic Regression with Mixed Features

Neural Information Processing Systems

Recent work has leveraged the popular distributionally robust optimization paradigm to combat overfitting in classical logistic regression. While the resulting classification scheme displays a promising performance in numerical experiments, it is inherently limited to numerical features. In this paper, we show that distributionally robust logistic regression with mixed (\emph{i.e.}, numerical and categorical) features, despite amounting to an optimization problem of exponential size, admits a polynomial-time solution scheme. We subsequently develop a practically efficient cutting plane approach that solves the problem as a sequence of polynomial-time solvable exponential conic programs. Our method retains many of the desirable theoretical features of previous works, but---in contrast to the literature---it does not admit an equivalent representation as a regularized logistic regression, that is, it represents a genuinely novel variant of the logistic regression problem. We show that our method outperforms both the unregularized and the regularized logistic regression on categorical as well as mixed-feature benchmark instances.


Efficient Subgroup Analysis via Optimal Trees with Global Parameter Fusion

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Identifying and making statistical inferences on differential treatment effects (commonly known as subgroup analysis in clinical research) is central to precision health. Subgroup analysis allows practitioners to pinpoint populations for whom a treatment is especially beneficial or protective, thereby advancing targeted interventions. Tree based recursive partitioning methods are widely used for subgroup analysis due to their interpretability. Nevertheless, these approaches encounter significant limitations, including suboptimal partitions induced by greedy heuristics and overfitting from locally estimated splits, especially under limited sample sizes. To address these limitations, we propose a fused optimal causal tree method that leverages mixed integer optimization (MIO) to facilitate precise subgroup identification. Our approach ensures globally optimal partitions and introduces a parameter fusion constraint to facilitate information sharing across related subgroups. This design substantially improves subgroup discovery accuracy and enhances statistical efficiency. We provide theoretical guarantees by rigorously establishing out of sample risk bounds and comparing them with those of classical tree based methods. Empirically, our method consistently outperforms popular baselines in simulations. Finally, we demonstrate its practical utility through a case study on the Health and Aging Brain Study Health Disparities (HABS-HD) dataset, where our approach yields clinically meaningful insights.


Preference-based Conditional Treatment Effects and Policy Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce a new preference-based framework for conditional treatment effect estimation and policy learning, built on the Conditional Preference-based Treatment Effect (CPTE). CPTE requires only that outcomes be ranked under a preference rule, unlocking flexible modeling of heterogeneous effects with multivariate, ordinal, or preference-driven outcomes. This unifies applications such as conditional probability of necessity and sufficiency, conditional Win Ratio, and Generalized Pairwise Comparisons. Despite the intrinsic non-identifiability of comparison-based estimands, CPTE provides interpretable targets and delivers new identifiability conditions for previous unidentifiable estimands. We present estimation strategies via matching, quantile, and distributional regression, and further design efficient influence-function estimators to correct plug-in bias and maximize policy value. Synthetic and semi-synthetic experiments demonstrate clear performance gains and practical impact.


Simulation-Based Inference via Regression Projection and Batched Discrepancies

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We analyze a lightweight simulation-based inference method that infers simulator parameters using only a regression-based projection of the observed data. After fitting a surrogate linear regression once, the procedure simulates small batches at the proposed parameter values and assigns kernel weights based on the resulting batch-residual discrepancy, producing a self-normalized pseudo-posterior that is simple, parallelizable, and requires access only to the fitted regression coefficients rather than raw observations. We formalize the construction as an importance-sampling approximation to a population target that averages over simulator randomness, prove consistency as the number of parameter draws grows, and establish stability in estimating the surrogate regression from finite samples. We then characterize the asymptotic concentration as the batch size increases and the bandwidth shrinks, showing that the pseudo-posterior concentrates on an identified set determined by the chosen projection, thereby clarifying when the method yields point versus set identification. Experiments on a tractable nonlinear model and on a cosmological calibration task using the DREAMS simulation suite illustrate the computational advantages of regression-based projections and the identifiability limitations arising from low-information summaries.