This article was published as a part of the Data Science Blogathon. Hyperparameter tuning or optimization is important in any machine learning model training activity. The hyperparameters of a model cannot be determined from the given datasets through the learning process. However, they are very crucial to control the learning process itself. These hyperparameters originate from the mathematical formulation of machine learning models. For example, the weights learned while training a linear regression model are parameters, but the learning rate in gradient descent is a hyperparameter.

Clinical prediction models estimate an individual's risk of a particular health outcome, conditional on their values of multiple predictors. A developed model is a consequence of the development dataset and the chosen model building strategy, including the sample size, number of predictors and analysis method (e.g., regression or machine learning). Here, we raise the concern that many models are developed using small datasets that lead to instability in the model and its predictions (estimated risks). We define four levels of model stability in estimated risks moving from the overall mean to the individual level. Then, through simulation and case studies of statistical and machine learning approaches, we show instability in a model's estimated risks is often considerable, and ultimately manifests itself as miscalibration of predictions in new data. Therefore, we recommend researchers should always examine instability at the model development stage and propose instability plots and measures to do so. This entails repeating the model building steps (those used in the development of the original prediction model) in each of multiple (e.g., 1000) bootstrap samples, to produce multiple bootstrap models, and then deriving (i) a prediction instability plot of bootstrap model predictions (y-axis) versus original model predictions (x-axis), (ii) a calibration instability plot showing calibration curves for the bootstrap models in the original sample; and (iii) the instability index, which is the mean absolute difference between individuals' original and bootstrap model predictions. A case study is used to illustrate how these instability assessments help reassure (or not) whether model predictions are likely to be reliable (or not), whilst also informing a model's critical appraisal (risk of bias rating), fairness assessment and further validation requirements.

Fetal growth restriction (FGR) is a prevalent pregnancy condition characterised by failure of the fetus to reach its genetically predetermined growth potential. We explore the application of model fitting techniques, linear regression machine learning models, deep learning regression, and Haralick textured features from multi-contrast MRI for multi-fetal organ analysis of FGR. We employed T2 relaxometry and diffusion-weighted MRI datasets (using a combined T2-diffusion scan) for 12 normally grown and 12 FGR gestational age (GA) matched pregnancies. We applied the Intravoxel Incoherent Motion Model and novel multi-compartment models for MRI fetal analysis, which exhibit potential to provide a multi-organ FGR assessment, overcoming the limitations of empirical indicators - such as abnormal artery Doppler findings - to evaluate placental dysfunction. The placenta and fetal liver presented key differentiators between FGR and normal controls (decreased perfusion, abnormal fetal blood motion and reduced fetal blood oxygenation. This may be associated with the preferential shunting of the fetal blood towards the fetal brain. These features were further explored to determine their role in assessing FGR severity, by employing simple machine learning models to predict FGR diagnosis (100\% accuracy in test data, n=5), GA at delivery, time from MRI scan to delivery, and baby weight. Moreover, we explored the use of deep learning to regress the latter three variables. Image texture analysis of the fetal organs demonstrated prominent textural variations in the placental perfusion fractions maps between the groups (p$<$0.0009), and spatial differences in the incoherent fetal capillary blood motion in the liver (p$<$0.009). This research serves as a proof-of-concept, investigating the effect of FGR on fetal organs.

Clinical notes are becoming an increasingly important data source for machine learning (ML) applications in healthcare. Prior research has shown that deploying ML models can perpetuate existing biases against racial minorities, as bias can be implicitly embedded in data. In this study, we investigate the level of implicit race information available to ML models and human experts and the implications of model-detectable differences in clinical notes. Our work makes three key contributions. First, we find that models can identify patient self-reported race from clinical notes even when the notes are stripped of explicit indicators of race. Second, we determine that human experts are not able to accurately predict patient race from the same redacted clinical notes. Finally, we demonstrate the potential harm of this implicit information in a simulation study, and show that models trained on these race-redacted clinical notes can still perpetuate existing biases in clinical treatment decisions.

Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a neuro-developmental syndrome resulting from alterations in the embryological brain before birth. This disorder distinguishes its patients by special socially restricted and repetitive behavior in addition to specific behavioral traits. Hence, this would possibly deteriorate their social behavior among other individuals, as well as their overall interaction within their community. Moreover, medical research has proved that ASD also affects the facial characteristics of its patients, making the syndrome recognizable from distinctive signs within an individual's face. Given that as a motivation behind our work, we propose a novel privacy-preserving federated learning scheme to predict ASD in a certain individual based on their behavioral and facial features, embedding a merging process of both data features through facial feature extraction while respecting patient data privacy. After training behavioral and facial image data on federated machine learning models, promising results are achieved, with 70\% accuracy for the prediction of ASD according to behavioral traits in a federated learning environment, and a 62\% accuracy is reached for the prediction of ASD given an image of the patient's face. Then, we test the behavior of regular as well as federated ML on our merged data, behavioral and facial, where a 65\% accuracy is achieved with the regular logistic regression model and 63\% accuracy with the federated learning model.

Sophisticated machine models are increasingly used for high-stakes decisions in everyday life. There is an urgent need to develop effective explanation techniques for such automated decisions. Rule-Based Explanations have been proposed for high-stake decisions like loan applications, because they increase the users' trust in the decision. However, rule-based explanations are very inefficient to compute, and existing systems sacrifice their quality in order to achieve reasonable performance. We propose a novel approach to compute rule-based explanations, by using a different type of explanation, Counterfactual Explanations, for which several efficient systems have already been developed. We prove a Duality Theorem, showing that rule-based and counterfactual-based explanations are dual to each other, then use this observation to develop an efficient algorithm for computing rule-based explanations, which uses the counterfactual-based explanation as an oracle. We conduct extensive experiments showing that our system computes rule-based explanations of higher quality, and with the same or better performance, than two previous systems, MinSetCover and Anchor.

Machine Learning with Python Basics (For Beginners) - Learn the Basics of Machine Learning with Python (First Step For Beginners)

Fine-tuning pretrained language models (LMs) without making any architectural changes has become a norm for learning various language downstream tasks. However, for non-language downstream tasks, a common practice is to employ task-specific designs for input, output layers, and loss functions. For instance, it is possible to fine-tune an LM into an MNIST classifier by replacing the word embedding layer with an image patch embedding layer, the word token output layer with a 10-way output layer, and the word prediction loss with a 10-way classification loss, respectively. A natural question arises: Can LM fine-tuning solve non-language downstream tasks without changing the model architecture or loss function? To answer this, we propose Language-Interfaced Fine-Tuning (LIFT) and study its efficacy and limitations by conducting an extensive empirical study on a suite of non-language classification and regression tasks. LIFT does not make any changes to the model architecture or loss function, and it solely relies on the natural language interface, enabling "no-code machine learning with LMs." We find that LIFT performs comparably well across a wide range of low-dimensional classification and regression tasks, matching the performances of the best baselines in many cases, especially for the classification tasks. We also report experimental results on the fundamental properties of LIFT, including inductive bias, robustness, and sample complexity. We also analyze the effect of pretraining on LIFT and a few properties/techniques specific to LIFT, e.g., context-aware learning via appropriate prompting, calibrated predictions, data generation, and two-stage fine-tuning. Our code is available at https://github.com/UW-Madison-Lee-Lab/LanguageInterfacedFineTuning.

"Prediction" is a broad and generic term that describes any process for obtaining guesses of unseen variables based on any available information, as well as each of these guesses. On the other hand, "forecasting" is a more specific term that describes any process for issuing predictions for future variables based on information (which most commonly takes the form of time series) about the present and the past, with these particular predictions being broadly called "forecasts". Forecasting is a key theme and topic for this study. Therefore, in what follows, the general focus will be on it and not on prediction in general, although many of the statements and methods that will be referring to it are equally relevant and applicable to other prediction types. The origins of forecasting trace back to the early humans and their pronounced need for certainty in the practical endeavour of supporting their various everyday life decisions (Petropoulos et al. 2022). Thus, forecasting has met until today and still meets numerous implementations, formal and informal. Independently of their exact categorization and features, the formal implementations of forecasting rely, in principal, on concepts, theory and practice that originate from or can be attributed to the predictive branch of statistical modelling, although forecasting is also considered as an entire field on its own because of the major role that the temporal dependence plays in the formulation of its methods. The predictive branch of statistical modelling exhibits profound and fundamental differences with respect to the descriptive and explanatory ones, as it is thoroughly explained in Shmueli (2010).

Large datasets make it possible to build predictive models that can capture heterogenous relationships between the response variable and features. The mixture of high-dimensional linear experts model posits that observations come from a mixture of high-dimensional linear regression models, where the mixture weights are themselves feature-dependent. In this paper, we show how to construct valid prediction sets for an $\ell_1$-penalized mixture of experts model in the high-dimensional setting. We make use of a debiasing procedure to account for the bias induced by the penalization and propose a novel strategy for combining intervals to form a prediction set with coverage guarantees in the mixture setting. Synthetic examples and an application to the prediction of critical temperatures of superconducting materials show our method to have reliable practical performance.