Regression
Minimalist Data Wrangling with Python
Minimalist Data Wrangling with Python is envisaged as a student's first introduction to data science, providing a high-level overview as well as discussing key concepts in detail. We explore methods for cleaning data gathered from different sources, transforming, selecting, and extracting features, performing exploratory data analysis and dimensionality reduction, identifying naturally occurring data clusters, modelling patterns in data, comparing data between groups, and reporting the results. This textbook is a non-profit project. Its online and PDF versions are freely available at https://datawranglingpy.gagolewski.com/.
RIGID: Robust Linear Regression with Missing Data
Aghasi, Alireza, Feizollahi, MohammadJavad, Ghadimi, Saeed
We present a robust framework to perform linear regression with missing entries in the features. By considering an elliptical data distribution, and specifically a multivariate normal model, we are able to conditionally formulate a distribution for the missing entries and present a robust framework, which minimizes the worst case error caused by the uncertainty about the missing data. We show that the proposed formulation, which naturally takes into account the dependency between different variables, ultimately reduces to a convex program, for which a customized and scalable solver can be delivered. In addition to a detailed analysis to deliver such solver, we also asymptoticly analyze the behavior of the proposed framework, and present technical discussions to estimate the required input parameters. We complement our analysis with experiments performed on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real data, and show how the proposed formulation improves the prediction accuracy and robustness, and outperforms the competing techniques. Missing data is a common problem associated with many datasets in machine learning. With the significant increase in using robust optimization techniques to train machine learning models, this paper presents a novel robust regression framework that operates by minimizing the uncertainty associated with missing data. The proposed approach allows training models with incomplete data, while minimizing the impact of uncertainty associated with the unavailable data. The ideas developed in this paper can be generalized beyond linear models and elliptical data distributions.
Proactive Detractor Detection Framework Based on Message-Wise Sentiment Analysis Over Customer Support Interactions
Gallo, Juan Sebastián Salcedo, Solano, Jesús, García, Javier Hernán, Zarruk-Valencia, David, Correa-Bahnsen, Alejandro
In this work, we propose a framework relying solely on chat-based customer support (CS) interactions for predicting the recommendation decision of individual users. For our case study, we analyzed a total number of 16.4k users and 48.7k customer support conversations within the financial vertical of a large e-commerce company in Latin America. Consequently, our main contributions and objectives are to use Natural Language Processing (NLP) to assess and predict the recommendation behavior where, in addition to using static sentiment analysis, we exploit the predictive power of each user's sentiment dynamics. Our results show that, with respective feature interpretability, it is possible to predict the likelihood of a user to recommend a product or service, based solely on the message-wise sentiment evolution of their CS conversations in a fully automated way.
The Importance of Suppressing Complete Reconstruction in Autoencoders for Unsupervised Outlier Detection
Autoencoders are widely used in outlier detection due to their superiority in handling high-dimensional and nonlinear datasets. The reconstruction of any dataset by the autoencoder can be considered as a complex regression process. In regression analysis, outliers can usually be divided into high leverage points and influential points. Although the autoencoder has shown good results for the identification of influential points, there are still some problems when detect high leverage points. Through theoretical derivation, we found that most outliers are detected in the direction corresponding to the worst-recovered principal component, but in the direction of the well-recovered principal components, the anomalies are often ignored. We propose a new loss function which solve the above deficiencies in outlier detection. The core idea of our scheme is that in order to better detect high leverage points, we should suppress the complete reconstruction of the dataset to convert high leverage points into influential points, and it is also necessary to ensure that the differences between the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix of the original dataset and their corresponding reconstructed results in the direction of each principal component are equal. Besides, we explain the rationality of our scheme through rigorous theoretical derivation. Finally, our experiments on multiple datasets confirm that our scheme significantly improves the accuracy of outlier detection. Outlier detection refers to the process of identifying data points that deviate significantly from normal data point clusters. For multidimensional data points, there are various outliers.
Machine Learning Workflow to Explain Black-box Models for Early Alzheimer's Disease Classification Evaluated for Multiple Datasets
Bloch, Louise, Friedrich, Christoph M.
Purpose: Hard-to-interpret Black-box Machine Learning (ML) were often used for early Alzheimer's Disease (AD) detection. Methods: To interpret eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) black-box models a workflow based on Shapley values was developed. All models were trained on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset and evaluated for an independent ADNI test set, as well as the external Australian Imaging and Lifestyle flagship study of Ageing (AIBL), and Open Access Series of Imaging Studies (OASIS) datasets. Shapley values were compared to intuitively interpretable Decision Trees (DTs), and Logistic Regression (LR), as well as natural and permutation feature importances. To avoid the reduction of the explanation validity caused by correlated features, forward selection and aspect consolidation were implemented. Results: Some black-box models outperformed DTs and LR. The forward-selected features correspond to brain areas previously associated with AD. Shapley values identified biologically plausible associations with moderate to strong correlations with feature importances. The most important RF features to predict AD conversion were the volume of the amygdalae, and a cognitive test score. Good cognitive test performances and large brain volumes decreased the AD risk. The models trained using cognitive test scores significantly outperformed brain volumetric models ($p<0.05$). Cognitive Normal (CN) vs. AD models were successfully transferred to external datasets. Conclusion: In comparison to previous work, improved performances for ADNI and AIBL were achieved for CN vs. Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) classification using brain volumes. The Shapley values and the feature importances showed moderate to strong correlations.
Discovering ordinary differential equations that govern time-series
Becker, Sören, Klein, Michal, Neitz, Alexander, Parascandolo, Giambattista, Kilbertus, Niki
Natural laws are often described through differential equations yet finding a differential equation that describes the governing law underlying observed data is a challenging and still mostly manual task. In this paper we make a step towards the automation of this process: we propose a transformer-based sequence-to-sequence model that recovers scalar autonomous ordinary differential equations (ODEs) in symbolic form from time-series data of a single observed solution of the ODE. Our method is efficiently scalable: after one-time pretraining on a large set of ODEs, we can infer the governing laws of a new observed solution in a few forward passes of the model. Then we show that our model performs better or on par with existing methods in various test cases in terms of accurate symbolic recovery of the ODE, especially for more complex expressions.
Fairness-aware Regression Robust to Adversarial Attacks
In this paper, we take a first step towards answering the question of how to design fair machine learning algorithms that are robust to adversarial attacks. Using a minimax framework, we aim to design an adversarially robust fair regression model that achieves optimal performance in the presence of an attacker who is able to add a carefully designed adversarial data point to the dataset or perform a rank-one attack on the dataset. By solving the proposed nonsmooth nonconvex-nonconcave minimax problem, the optimal adversary as well as the robust fairness-aware regression model are obtained. For both synthetic data and real-world datasets, numerical results illustrate that the proposed adversarially robust fair models have better performance on poisoned datasets than other fair machine learning models in both prediction accuracy and group-based fairness measure.
Robust Testing in High-Dimensional Sparse Models
George, Anand Jerry, Canonne, Clément L.
We consider the problem of robustly testing the norm of a high-dimensional sparse signal vector under two different observation models. In the first model, we are given $n$ i.i.d. samples from the distribution $\mathcal{N}\left(\theta,I_d\right)$ (with unknown $\theta$), of which a small fraction has been arbitrarily corrupted. Under the promise that $\|\theta\|_0\le s$, we want to correctly distinguish whether $\|\theta\|_2=0$ or $\|\theta\|_2>\gamma$, for some input parameter $\gamma>0$. We show that any algorithm for this task requires $n=\Omega\left(s\log\frac{ed}{s}\right)$ samples, which is tight up to logarithmic factors. We also extend our results to other common notions of sparsity, namely, $\|\theta\|_q\le s$ for any $0 < q < 2$. In the second observation model that we consider, the data is generated according to a sparse linear regression model, where the covariates are i.i.d. Gaussian and the regression coefficient (signal) is known to be $s$-sparse. Here too we assume that an $\epsilon$-fraction of the data is arbitrarily corrupted. We show that any algorithm that reliably tests the norm of the regression coefficient requires at least $n=\Omega\left(\min(s\log d,{1}/{\gamma^4})\right)$ samples. Our results show that the complexity of testing in these two settings significantly increases under robustness constraints. This is in line with the recent observations made in robust mean testing and robust covariance testing.
Impact Learning: A Learning Method from Features Impact and Competition
Prottasha, Nusrat Jahan, Murad, Saydul Akbar, Muzahid, Abu Jafar Md, Rana, Masud, Kowsher, Md, Adhikary, Apurba, Biswas, Sujit, Bairagi, Anupam Kumar
Machine learning is the study of computer algorithms that can automatically improve based on data and experience. Machine learning algorithms build a model from sample data, called training data, to make predictions or judgments without being explicitly programmed to do so. A variety of wellknown machine learning algorithms have been developed for use in the field of computer science to analyze data. This paper introduced a new machine learning algorithm called impact learning. Impact learning is a supervised learning algorithm that can be consolidated in both classification and regression problems. It can furthermore manifest its superiority in analyzing competitive data. This algorithm is remarkable for learning from the competitive situation and the competition comes from the effects of autonomous features. It is prepared by the impacts of the highlights from the intrinsic rate of natural increase (RNI). We, moreover, manifest the prevalence of the impact learning over the conventional machine learning algorithm.
Fairness in Federated Learning via Core-Stability
Chaudhury, Bhaskar Ray, Li, Linyi, Kang, Mintong, Li, Bo, Mehta, Ruta
Federated learning provides an effective paradigm to jointly optimize a model benefited from rich distributed data while protecting data privacy. Nonetheless, the heterogeneity nature of distributed data makes it challenging to define and ensure fairness among local agents. For instance, it is intuitively "unfair" for agents with data of high quality to sacrifice their performance due to other agents with low quality data. Currently popular egalitarian and weighted equity-based fairness measures suffer from the aforementioned pitfall. In this work, we aim to formally represent this problem and address these fairness issues using concepts from co-operative game theory and social choice theory. We model the task of learning a shared predictor in the federated setting as a fair public decision making problem, and then define the notion of core-stable fairness: Given $N$ agents, there is no subset of agents $S$ that can benefit significantly by forming a coalition among themselves based on their utilities $U_N$ and $U_S$ (i.e., $\frac{|S|}{N} U_S \geq U_N$). Core-stable predictors are robust to low quality local data from some agents, and additionally they satisfy Proportionality and Pareto-optimality, two well sought-after fairness and efficiency notions within social choice. We then propose an efficient federated learning protocol CoreFed to optimize a core stable predictor. CoreFed determines a core-stable predictor when the loss functions of the agents are convex. CoreFed also determines approximate core-stable predictors when the loss functions are not convex, like smooth neural networks. We further show the existence of core-stable predictors in more general settings using Kakutani's fixed point theorem. Finally, we empirically validate our analysis on two real-world datasets, and we show that CoreFed achieves higher core-stability fairness than FedAvg while having similar accuracy.