Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a neuro-developmental syndrome resulting from alterations in the embryological brain before birth. This disorder distinguishes its patients by special socially restricted and repetitive behavior in addition to specific behavioral traits. Hence, this would possibly deteriorate their social behavior among other individuals, as well as their overall interaction within their community. Moreover, medical research has proved that ASD also affects the facial characteristics of its patients, making the syndrome recognizable from distinctive signs within an individual's face. Given that as a motivation behind our work, we propose a novel privacy-preserving federated learning scheme to predict ASD in a certain individual based on their behavioral and facial features, embedding a merging process of both data features through facial feature extraction while respecting patient data privacy. After training behavioral and facial image data on federated machine learning models, promising results are achieved, with 70\% accuracy for the prediction of ASD according to behavioral traits in a federated learning environment, and a 62\% accuracy is reached for the prediction of ASD given an image of the patient's face. Then, we test the behavior of regular as well as federated ML on our merged data, behavioral and facial, where a 65\% accuracy is achieved with the regular logistic regression model and 63\% accuracy with the federated learning model.

Sophisticated machine models are increasingly used for high-stakes decisions in everyday life. There is an urgent need to develop effective explanation techniques for such automated decisions. Rule-Based Explanations have been proposed for high-stake decisions like loan applications, because they increase the users' trust in the decision. However, rule-based explanations are very inefficient to compute, and existing systems sacrifice their quality in order to achieve reasonable performance. We propose a novel approach to compute rule-based explanations, by using a different type of explanation, Counterfactual Explanations, for which several efficient systems have already been developed. We prove a Duality Theorem, showing that rule-based and counterfactual-based explanations are dual to each other, then use this observation to develop an efficient algorithm for computing rule-based explanations, which uses the counterfactual-based explanation as an oracle. We conduct extensive experiments showing that our system computes rule-based explanations of higher quality, and with the same or better performance, than two previous systems, MinSetCover and Anchor.

Machine Learning with Python Basics (For Beginners) - Learn the Basics of Machine Learning with Python (First Step For Beginners)

Fine-tuning pretrained language models (LMs) without making any architectural changes has become a norm for learning various language downstream tasks. However, for non-language downstream tasks, a common practice is to employ task-specific designs for input, output layers, and loss functions. For instance, it is possible to fine-tune an LM into an MNIST classifier by replacing the word embedding layer with an image patch embedding layer, the word token output layer with a 10-way output layer, and the word prediction loss with a 10-way classification loss, respectively. A natural question arises: Can LM fine-tuning solve non-language downstream tasks without changing the model architecture or loss function? To answer this, we propose Language-Interfaced Fine-Tuning (LIFT) and study its efficacy and limitations by conducting an extensive empirical study on a suite of non-language classification and regression tasks. LIFT does not make any changes to the model architecture or loss function, and it solely relies on the natural language interface, enabling "no-code machine learning with LMs." We find that LIFT performs comparably well across a wide range of low-dimensional classification and regression tasks, matching the performances of the best baselines in many cases, especially for the classification tasks. We also report experimental results on the fundamental properties of LIFT, including inductive bias, robustness, and sample complexity. We also analyze the effect of pretraining on LIFT and a few properties/techniques specific to LIFT, e.g., context-aware learning via appropriate prompting, calibrated predictions, data generation, and two-stage fine-tuning. Our code is available at https://github.com/UW-Madison-Lee-Lab/LanguageInterfacedFineTuning.

"Prediction" is a broad and generic term that describes any process for obtaining guesses of unseen variables based on any available information, as well as each of these guesses. On the other hand, "forecasting" is a more specific term that describes any process for issuing predictions for future variables based on information (which most commonly takes the form of time series) about the present and the past, with these particular predictions being broadly called "forecasts". Forecasting is a key theme and topic for this study. Therefore, in what follows, the general focus will be on it and not on prediction in general, although many of the statements and methods that will be referring to it are equally relevant and applicable to other prediction types. The origins of forecasting trace back to the early humans and their pronounced need for certainty in the practical endeavour of supporting their various everyday life decisions (Petropoulos et al. 2022). Thus, forecasting has met until today and still meets numerous implementations, formal and informal. Independently of their exact categorization and features, the formal implementations of forecasting rely, in principal, on concepts, theory and practice that originate from or can be attributed to the predictive branch of statistical modelling, although forecasting is also considered as an entire field on its own because of the major role that the temporal dependence plays in the formulation of its methods. The predictive branch of statistical modelling exhibits profound and fundamental differences with respect to the descriptive and explanatory ones, as it is thoroughly explained in Shmueli (2010).

Large datasets make it possible to build predictive models that can capture heterogenous relationships between the response variable and features. The mixture of high-dimensional linear experts model posits that observations come from a mixture of high-dimensional linear regression models, where the mixture weights are themselves feature-dependent. In this paper, we show how to construct valid prediction sets for an $\ell_1$-penalized mixture of experts model in the high-dimensional setting. We make use of a debiasing procedure to account for the bias induced by the penalization and propose a novel strategy for combining intervals to form a prediction set with coverage guarantees in the mixture setting. Synthetic examples and an application to the prediction of critical temperatures of superconducting materials show our method to have reliable practical performance.

We present fast classification techniques for sparse generalized linear and additive models. These techniques can handle thousands of features and thousands of observations in minutes, even in the presence of many highly correlated features. For fast sparse logistic regression, our computational speed-up over other best-subset search techniques owes to linear and quadratic surrogate cuts for the logistic loss that allow us to efficiently screen features for elimination, as well as use of a priority queue that favors a more uniform exploration of features. As an alternative to the logistic loss, we propose the exponential loss, which permits an analytical solution to the line search at each iteration. Our algorithms are generally 2 to 5 times faster than previous approaches. They produce interpretable models that have accuracy comparable to black box models on challenging datasets.

Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) models have seen increased attention in recent years as a general-purpose nonparametric modeling technique. BART combines the flexibility of modern machine learning techniques with the principled uncertainty quantification of Bayesian inference, and it has been shown to be uniquely appropriate for addressing the high-noise problems that occur commonly in many areas of science, including medicine and the social sciences. This paper introduces the SoftBart package for fitting the Soft BART algorithm of Linero and Yang (2018). In addition to improving upon the predictive performance of other BART packages, a major goal of this package has been to facilitate the inclusion of BART in larger models, making it ideal for researchers in Bayesian statistics. I show both how to use this package for standard prediction tasks and how to embed BART models in larger models; I illustrate by using SoftBart to implement a nonparametric probit regression model, a semiparametric varying coefficient model, and a partial linear model.

Estimation of the average treatment effect (ATE) is a central problem in causal inference. In recent times, inference for the ATE in the presence of high-dimensional covariates has been extensively studied. Among the diverse approaches that have been proposed, augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW) with cross-fitting has emerged a popular choice in practice. In this work, we study this cross-fit AIPW estimator under well-specified outcome regression and propensity score models in a high-dimensional regime where the number of features and samples are both large and comparable. Under assumptions on the covariate distribution, we establish a new central limit theorem for the suitably scaled cross-fit AIPW that applies without any sparsity assumptions on the underlying high-dimensional parameters. Our CLT uncovers two crucial phenomena among others: (i) the AIPW exhibits a substantial variance inflation that can be precisely quantified in terms of the signal-to-noise ratio and other problem parameters, (ii) the asymptotic covariance between the pre-cross-fit estimators is non-negligible even on the root-n scale. These findings are strikingly different from their classical counterparts. On the technical front, our work utilizes a novel interplay between three distinct tools--approximate message passing theory, the theory of deterministic equivalents, and the leave-one-out approach. We believe our proof techniques should be useful for analyzing other two-stage estimators in this high-dimensional regime. Finally, we complement our theoretical results with simulations that demonstrate both the finite sample efficacy of our CLT and its robustness to our assumptions.

Differentially private (DP) release of multidimensional statistics typically considers an aggregate sensitivity, e.g. the vector norm of a high-dimensional vector. However, different dimensions of that vector might have widely different magnitudes and therefore DP perturbation disproportionately affects the signal across dimensions. We observe this problem in the gradient release of the DP-SGD algorithm when using it for variational inference (VI), where it manifests in poor convergence as well as high variance in outputs for certain variational parameters, and make the following contributions: (i) We mathematically isolate the cause for the difference in magnitudes between gradient parts corresponding to different variational parameters. Using this as prior knowledge we establish a link between the gradients of the variational parameters, and propose an efficient while simple fix for the problem to obtain a less noisy gradient estimator, which we call $\textit{aligned}$ gradients. This approach allows us to obtain the updates for the covariance parameter of a Gaussian posterior approximation without a privacy cost. We compare this to alternative approaches for scaling the gradients using analytically derived preconditioning, e.g. natural gradients. (ii) We suggest using iterate averaging over the DP parameter traces recovered during the training, to reduce the DP-induced noise in parameter estimates at no additional cost in privacy. Finally, (iii) to accurately capture the additional uncertainty DP introduces to the model parameters, we infer the DP-induced noise from the parameter traces and include that in the learned posteriors to make them $\textit{noise aware}$. We demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed improvements through various experiments on real data.