Algorithmic stability is a concept from learning theory that expresses the degree to which changes to the input data (e.g., removal of a single data point) may affect the outputs of a regression algorithm. Knowing an algorithm's stability properties is often useful for many downstream applications -- for example, stability is known to lead to desirable generalization properties and predictive inference guarantees. However, many modern algorithms currently used in practice are too complex for a theoretical analysis of their stability properties, and thus we can only attempt to establish these properties through an empirical exploration of the algorithm's behavior on various data sets. In this work, we lay out a formal statistical framework for this kind of "black-box testing" without any assumptions on the algorithm or the data distribution and establish fundamental bounds on the ability of any black-box test to identify algorithmic stability.

Candidate axiom scoring is the task of assessing the acceptability of a candidate axiom against the evidence provided by known facts or data. The ability to score candidate axioms reliably is required for automated schema or ontology induction, but it can also be valuable for ontology and/or knowledge graph validation. Accurate axiom scoring heuristics are often computationally expensive, which is an issue if you wish to use them in iterative search techniques like level-wise generate-and-test or evolutionary algorithms, which require scoring a large number of candidate axioms. We address the problem of developing a predictive model as a substitute for reasoning that predicts the possibility score of candidate class axioms and is quick enough to be employed in such situations. We use a semantic similarity measure taken from an ontology's subsumption structure for this purpose. We show that the approach provided in this work can accurately learn the possibility scores of candidate OWL class axioms and that it can do so for a variety of OWL class axioms.

Algorithms that involve both forecasting and optimization are at the core of solutions to many difficult real-world problems, such as in supply chains (inventory optimization), traffic, and in the transition towards carbon-free energy generation in battery/load/production scheduling in sustainable energy systems. Typically, in these scenarios we want to solve an optimization problem that depends on unknown future values, which therefore need to be forecast. As both forecasting and optimization are difficult problems in their own right, relatively few research has been done in this area. This paper presents the findings of the ``IEEE-CIS Technical Challenge on Predict+Optimize for Renewable Energy Scheduling," held in 2021. We present a comparison and evaluation of the seven highest-ranked solutions in the competition, to provide researchers with a benchmark problem and to establish the state of the art for this benchmark, with the aim to foster and facilitate research in this area. The competition used data from the Monash Microgrid, as well as weather data and energy market data. It then focused on two main challenges: forecasting renewable energy production and demand, and obtaining an optimal schedule for the activities (lectures) and on-site batteries that lead to the lowest cost of energy. The most accurate forecasts were obtained by gradient-boosted tree and random forest models, and optimization was mostly performed using mixed integer linear and quadratic programming. The winning method predicted different scenarios and optimized over all scenarios jointly using a sample average approximation method.

The estimation of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) is an important learning task with a great variety of downstream applications, such as risk assessments in predictions and decision making. In this paper, we study functional regression of contextual CDFs where each data point is sampled from a linear combination of context dependent CDF basis functions. We propose functional ridge-regression-based estimation methods that estimate CDFs accurately everywhere. In particular, given $n$ samples with $d$ basis functions, we show estimation error upper bounds of $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{d/n})$ for fixed design, random design, and adversarial context cases. We also derive matching information theoretic lower bounds, establishing minimax optimality for CDF functional regression. Furthermore, we remove the burn-in time in the random design setting using an alternative penalized estimator. Then, we consider agnostic settings where there is a mismatch in the data generation process. We characterize the error of the proposed estimators in terms of the mismatched error, and show that the estimators are well-behaved under model mismatch. Finally, to complete our study, we formalize infinite dimensional models where the parameter space is an infinite dimensional Hilbert space, and establish self-normalized estimation error upper bounds for this setting.

We consider the problem of dynamic pricing of a product in the presence of feature-dependent price sensitivity. Developing practical algorithms that can estimate price elasticities robustly, especially when information about no purchases (losses) is not available, to drive such automated pricing systems is a challenge faced by many industries. Based on the Poisson semi-parametric approach, we construct a flexible yet interpretable demand model where the price related part is parametric while the remaining (nuisance) part of the model is non-parametric and can be modeled via sophisticated machine learning (ML) techniques. The estimation of price-sensitivity parameters of this model via direct one-stage regression techniques may lead to biased estimates due to regularization. To address this concern, we propose a two-stage estimation methodology which makes the estimation of the price-sensitivity parameters robust to biases in the estimators of the nuisance parameters of the model. In the first-stage we construct estimators of observed purchases and prices given the feature vector using sophisticated ML estimators such as deep neural networks. Utilizing the estimators from the first-stage, in the second-stage we leverage a Bayesian dynamic generalized linear model to estimate the price-sensitivity parameters. We test the performance of the proposed estimation schemes on simulated and real sales transaction data from the Airline industry. Our numerical studies demonstrate that our proposed two-stage approach reduces the estimation error in price-sensitivity parameters from 25\% to 4\% in realistic simulation settings. The two-stage estimation techniques proposed in this work allows practitioners to leverage modern ML techniques to robustly estimate price-sensitivities while still maintaining interpretability and allowing ease of validation of its various constituent parts.

The application of machine learning to predicting the properties of small and large discrete (single) molecules and complex materials (polymeric, extended or mixtures of molecules) has been increasing exponentially over the past few decades. Unlike physics-based and rule-based computational systems, machine learning algorithms can learn complex relationships between physicochemical and process parameters and their useful properties for an extremely diverse range of molecular entities. Both the breadth of machine learning methods and the range of physical, chemical, materials, biological, medical and many other application areas have increased markedly in the past decade. This Account summarises three decades of research into improved cheminformatics and machine learning methods and their application to drug design, regenerative medicine, biomaterials, porous and 2D materials, catalysts, biomarkers, surface science, physicochemical and phase properties, nanomaterials, electrical and optical properties, corrosion and battery research. Science has always been fascinated by change, uncovering new aspects of Nature and finding useful ways to exploit them to meet global challenges. The rate of change is accelerating, with average time between innovations decreasing exponentially (Figure 1). Computational molecular design prior to 1990 was focused on the use of computationally expensive physics-based methods like molecular modelling, molecular mechanics, molecular dynamics and quantum chemistry. The quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) methods, developed by Hansch and Fujita in the 1960s, were based on the observation that changes in the constitution of small organic molecules generated a corresponding change in their biological activities. Regression methods were used to find relationships between structure, encoded by mathematical entities called descriptors or features, and biological properties of small organic molecules, also numerically encoded. QSAR use was limited to modelling of small data sets of molecules with similar scaffolds, with the primary aim of understanding the molecular basis for drug (or agrochemical) action. As they were not mechanism- or physics-based, their empirical nature created doubt as to their efficacy, the question of when correlation means causation (still an important issue), and lack of data were major barriers to their wider adoption. After that time, technological developments involving automation, computational power, algorithms, synthesis and informatics have maintained this exponential acceleration.

The seminal work of Cohen and Peng introduced Lewis weight sampling to the theoretical computer science community, yielding fast row sampling algorithms for approximating $d$-dimensional subspaces of $\ell_p$ up to $(1+\epsilon)$ error. Several works have extended this important primitive to other settings, including the online coreset and sliding window models. However, these results are only for $p\in\{1,2\}$, and results for $p=1$ require a suboptimal $\tilde O(d^2/\epsilon^2)$ samples. In this work, we design the first nearly optimal $\ell_p$ subspace embeddings for all $p\in(0,\infty)$ in the online coreset and sliding window models. In both models, our algorithms store $\tilde O(d^{1\lor(p/2)}/\epsilon^2)$ rows. This answers a substantial generalization of the main open question of [BDMMUWZ2020], and gives the first results for all $p\notin\{1,2\}$. Towards our result, we give the first analysis of "one-shot'' Lewis weight sampling of sampling rows proportionally to their Lewis weights, with sample complexity $\tilde O(d^{p/2}/\epsilon^2)$ for $p>2$. Previously, this scheme was only known to have sample complexity $\tilde O(d^{p/2}/\epsilon^5)$, whereas $\tilde O(d^{p/2}/\epsilon^2)$ is known if a more sophisticated recursive sampling is used. The recursive sampling cannot be implemented online, thus necessitating an analysis of one-shot Lewis weight sampling. Our analysis uses a novel connection to online numerical linear algebra. As an application, we obtain the first one-pass streaming coreset algorithms for $(1+\epsilon)$ approximation of important generalized linear models, such as logistic regression and $p$-probit regression. Our upper bounds are parameterized by a complexity parameter $\mu$ introduced by [MSSW2018], and we show the first lower bounds showing that a linear dependence on $\mu$ is necessary.

Adapting upper-limb impedance (i.e., stiffness, damping, inertia) is essential for humans interacting with dynamic environments for executing grasping or manipulation tasks. On the other hand, control methods designed for state-of-the-art upper-limb prostheses infer motor intent from surface electromyography (sEMG) signals in terms of joint kinematics, but they fail to infer and use the underlying impedance properties of the limb. We present a framework that allows a human user to simultaneously control the kinematics, stiffness, and damping of a simulated robot through wrist's flexion-extension. The framework includes muscle-tendon units and a forward dynamics block to estimate the motor intent from sEMG signals, and a variable impedance controller that implements the estimated intent on the robot, allowing the user to adapt the robot's kinematics and dynamics online. We evaluate our framework with 8 able-bodied subjects and an amputee during reaching tasks performed in free space, and in the presence of unexpected external perturbations that require adaptation of the wrist impedance to ensure stable interaction with the environment. We experimentally demonstrate that our approach outperforms a data-driven baseline in terms of its ability to adapt to external perturbations, overall controllability, and feedback from participants.

In many high-dimensional prediction or classification tasks, complementary data on the features are available, e.g. prior biological knowledge on (epi)genetic markers. Here we consider tasks with numerical prior information that provide an insight into the importance (weight) and the direction (sign) of the feature effects, e.g. regression coefficients from previous studies. We propose an approach for integrating multiple sources of such prior information into penalised regression. If suitable co-data are available, this improves the predictive performance, as shown by simulation and application. The proposed method is implemented in the R package `transreg' (https://github.com/lcsb-bds/transreg).

We extend best-subset selection to linear Multi-Task Learning (MTL), where a set of linear models are jointly trained on a collection of datasets (``tasks''). Allowing the regression coefficients of tasks to have different sparsity patterns (i.e., different supports), we propose a modeling framework for MTL that encourages models to share information across tasks, for a given covariate, through separately 1) shrinking the coefficient supports together, and/or 2) shrinking the coefficient values together. This allows models to borrow strength during variable selection even when the coefficient values differ markedly between tasks. We express our modeling framework as a Mixed-Integer Program, and propose efficient and scalable algorithms based on block coordinate descent and combinatorial local search. We show our estimator achieves statistically optimal prediction rates. Importantly, our theory characterizes how our estimator leverages the shared support information across tasks to achieve better variable selection performance. We evaluate the performance of our method in simulations and two biology applications. Our proposed approaches outperform other sparse MTL methods in variable selection and prediction accuracy. Interestingly, penalties that shrink the supports together often outperform penalties that shrink the coefficient values together. We will release an R package implementing our methods.