Methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) from observational data have largely focused on continuous or binary outcomes, with less attention paid to survival outcomes and almost none to settings with competing risks. In this work, we develop censoring unbiased transformations (CUTs) for survival outcomes both with and without competing risks.After converting time-to-event outcomes using these CUTs, direct application of HTE learners for continuous outcomes yields consistent estimates of heterogeneous cumulative incidence effects, total effects, and separable direct effects. Our CUTs enable application of a much larger set of state of the art HTE learners for censored outcomes than had previously been available, especially in competing risks settings. We provide generic model-free learner-specific oracle inequalities bounding the finite-sample excess risk. The oracle efficiency results depend on the oracle selector and estimated nuisance functions from all steps involved in the transformation. We demonstrate the empirical performance of the proposed methods in simulation studies.

We introduce a distributionally robust approach that enhances the reliability of offline policy evaluation in contextual bandits under general covariate shifts. Our method aims to deliver robust policy evaluation results in the presence of discrepancies in both context and policy distribution between logging and target data. Central to our methodology is the application of robust regression -- a distributionally robust technique tailored here to improve the estimation of conditional reward distribution from logging data. Utilizing the reward model obtained from robust regression, we develop a comprehensive suite of policy value estimators, by integrating our reward model into established evaluation frameworks, namely direct methods and doubly robust methods. Through theoretical analysis, we further establish that the proposed policy value estimators offer a finite sample upper bound for the bias, providing a clear advantage over traditional methods, especially when the shift is large. Finally, we designed an extensive range of policy evaluation scenarios, covering diverse magnitudes of shifts and a spectrum of logging and target policies. Our empirical results indicate that our approach significantly outperforms baseline methods, most notably in 90% of the cases under the policy shift-only settings and 72% of the scenarios under the general covariate shift settings.

Virtual Reality (VR) bares promise of social interactions that can feel more immersive than other media. Key to this is the ability to accurately animate a photorealistic avatar of one's likeness while wearing a VR headset. Although high quality registration of person-specific avatars to headset-mounted camera (HMC) images is possible in an offline setting, the performance of generic realtime models are significantly degraded. Online registration is also challenging due to oblique camera views and differences in modality. In this work, we first show that the domain gap between the avatar and headset-camera images is one of the primary sources of difficulty, where a transformer-based architecture achieves high accuracy on domain-consistent data, but degrades when the domain-gap is re-introduced. Building on this finding, we develop a system design that decouples the problem into two parts: 1) an iterative refinement module that takes in-domain inputs, and 2) a generic avatar-guided image-to-image style transfer module that is conditioned on current estimation of expression and head pose. These two modules reinforce each other, as image style transfer becomes easier when close-to-ground-truth examples are shown, and better domain-gap removal helps registration. Our system produces high-quality results efficiently, obviating the need for costly offline registration to generate personalized labels. We validate the accuracy and efficiency of our approach through extensive experiments on a commodity headset, demonstrating significant improvements over direct regression methods as well as offline registration.

Due to the rise of privacy concerns, in many practical applications the training data is aggregated before being shared with the learner, in order to protect privacy of users' sensitive responses. In an aggregate learning framework, the dataset is grouped into bags of samples, where each bag is available only with an aggregate response, providing a summary of individuals' responses in that bag. In this paper, we study two natural loss functions for learning from aggregate responses: bag-level loss and the instance-level loss. In the former, the model is learnt by minimizing a loss between aggregate responses and aggregate model predictions, while in the latter the model aims to fit individual predictions to the aggregate responses. In this work, we show that the instance-level loss can be perceived as a regularized form of the bag-level loss. This observation lets us compare the two approaches with respect to bias and variance of the resulting estimators, and introduce a novel interpolating estimator which combines the two approaches. For linear regression tasks, we provide a precise characterization of the risk of the interpolating estimator in an asymptotic regime where the size of the training set grows in proportion to the features dimension. Our analysis allows us to theoretically understand the effect of different factors, such as bag size on the model prediction risk. In addition, we propose a mechanism for differentially private learning from aggregate responses and derive the optimal bag size in terms of prediction risk-privacy trade-off. We also carry out thorough experiments to corroborate our theory and show the efficacy of the interpolating estimator.

This study explores the crucial interplay between aggregators and building occupants in activating flexibility through Demand Response (DR) programs, with a keen focus on achieving robust decarbonization and fortifying the resilience of the energy system amidst the uncertainties presented by Renewable Energy Sources (RES). Firstly, it introduces a methodology of optimizing aggregated flexibility provision strategies in environments with limited data, utilizing Discrete Fourier Transformation (DFT) and clustering techniques to identify building occupant's activity patterns. Secondly, the study assesses the disaggregated flexibility provision of Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems during DR events, employing machine learning and optimization techniques for precise, device-level analysis. The first approach offers a non-intrusive pathway for aggregators to provide flexibility services in environments of a single smart meter for the whole building's consumption, while the second approach carefully considers building occupants' thermal comfort profiles, while maximizing flexibility in case of existence of dedicated smart meters to the HVAC systems. Through the application of data-driven techniques and encompassing case studies from both industrial and residential buildings, this paper not only unveils pivotal opportunities for aggregators in the balancing and emerging flexibility markets but also successfully develops end-to-end practical tools for aggregators. Furthermore, the efficacy of this tool is validated through detailed case studies, substantiating its operational capability and contributing to the evolution of a resilient and efficient energy system.

This research paper delves into three interrelated aspects: regression over dyadic data, the evaluation of such tasks, and the pervasive issue of unfairness biases in AI. Dyadic data systems play a significant role in our data-driven world, being at the core of recommendation engines, personalized content delivery, and countless applications which involve understanding complex relationships between entities like products, movies, or even potential job candidates. In these contexts, regression over dyadic data becomes the process of predicting values for a given pair of entities, such as user ratings for specific products or evaluating the suitability of a job applicant. These predictions can influence anything, from purchasing decisions to employment opportunities. However, within these critical tasks, the presence of biases related to unfairness can have profound implications, such as disparate impacts on minority or vulnerable groups, unequal access to opportunities, and discriminatory decision-making processes [1] [2]. From a legal perspective, regulations and guidelines are emerging globally to ensure fairness and ethics in AI systems. For instance, the European Union's AI Act will regulate that AI systems must

This chapter is a preprint from our book by , focusing on leveraging machine learning (ML) in chemical and polyolefin manufacturing optimization. It's crafted for both novices and seasoned professionals keen on the latest ML applications in chemical processes. We trace the evolution of AI and ML in chemical industries, delineate core ML components, and provide resources for ML beginners. A detailed discussion on various ML methods is presented, covering regression, classification, and unsupervised learning techniques, with performance metrics and examples. Ensemble methods, deep learning networks, including MLP, DNNs, RNNs, CNNs, and transformers, are explored for their growing role in chemical applications. Practical workshops guide readers through predictive modeling using advanced ML algorithms. The chapter culminates with insights into science-guided ML, advocating for a hybrid approach that enhances model accuracy. The extensive bibliography offers resources for further research and practical implementation. This chapter aims to be a thorough primer on ML's practical application in chemical engineering, particularly for polyolefin production, and sets the stage for continued learning in subsequent chapters. Please cite the original work [169,170] when referencing.

The pharmaceutical Research and development (R&D) process is lengthy and costly, taking nearly a decade to bring a new drug to the market. However, advancements in biotechnology, computational methods, and machine learning algorithms have the potential to revolutionize drug discovery, speeding up the process and improving patient outcomes. The COVID-19 pandemic has further accelerated and deepened the recognition of the potential of these techniques, especially in the areas of drug repurposing and efficacy predictions. Meanwhile, non-small molecule therapeutic modalities such as cell therapies, monoclonal antibodies, and RNA interference (RNAi) technology have gained importance due to their ability to target specific disease pathways and/or patient populations. In the field of RNAi, many experiments have been carried out to design and select highly efficient siRNAs. However, the established patterns for efficient siRNAs are sometimes contradictory and unable to consistently determine the most potent siRNA molecules against a target mRNA. Thus, this paper focuses on developing machine learning models based on the cheminformatics representation of the nucleotide composition (i.e. AUTGC) of siRNA to predict their potency and aid the selection of the most efficient siRNAs for further development. The PLS (Partial Least Square) and SVR (Support Vector Regression) machine learning models built in this work outperformed previously published models. These models can help in predicting siRNA potency and aid in selecting the best siRNA molecules for experimental validation and further clinical development. The study has demonstrated the potential of AI/machine learning models to help expedite siRNA-based drug discovery including the discovery of potent siRNAs against SARS-CoV-2.

The proliferation of online misinformation has emerged as one of the biggest threats to society. Considerable efforts have focused on building misinformation detection models, still the perils of misinformation remain abound. Mitigating online misinformation and its ramifications requires a holistic approach that encompasses not only an understanding of its intricate landscape in relation to the complex issue and topic-rich information ecosystem online, but also the psychological drivers of individuals behind it. Adopting a time series analytic technique and robust causal inference-based design, we conduct a large-scale observational study analyzing over 32 million COVID-19 tweets and 16 million historical timeline tweets. We focus on understanding the behavior and psychology of users disseminating misinformation during COVID-19 and its relationship with the historical inclinations towards sharing misinformation on Non-COVID domains before the pandemic. Our analysis underscores the intricacies inherent to cross-domain misinformation, and highlights that users' historical inclination toward sharing misinformation is positively associated with their present behavior pertaining to misinformation sharing on emergent topics and beyond. This work may serve as a valuable foundation for designing user-centric inoculation strategies and ecologically-grounded agile interventions for effectively tackling online misinformation.

Dealing with missing data is an important problem in statistical analysis that is often addressed with imputation procedures. The performance and validity of such methods are of great importance for their application in empirical studies. While the prevailing method of Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) with Predictive Mean Matching (PMM) is considered standard in the social science literature, the increase in complex datasets may require more advanced approaches based on machine learning. In particular, tree-based imputation methods have emerged as very competitive approaches. However, the performance and validity are not completely understood, particularly compared to the standard MICE PMM. This is especially true for inference in linear models. In this study, we investigate the impact of various imputation methods on coefficient estimation, Type I error, and power, to gain insights that can help empirical researchers deal with missingness more effectively. We explore MICE PMM alongside different tree-based methods, such as MICE with Random Forest (RF), Chained Random Forests with and without PMM (missRanger), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (MIXGBoost), conducting a realistic simulation study using the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS) as the original data source. Our results reveal that Random Forest-based imputations, especially MICE RF and missRanger with PMM, consistently perform better in most scenarios. Standard MICE PMM shows partially increased bias and overly conservative test decisions, particularly with non-true zero coefficients. Our results thus underscore the potential advantages of tree-based imputation methods, albeit with a caveat that all methods perform worse with an increased missingness, particularly missRanger.